BOOK REVIEN’S

John Clemens. Pa&, Fo~i~ics and poputi~r~. Gower. Aldershot, England. 1983. 199 pp. f 15.00 (hardback).

The book concentrates on the use and influence of public opinion polls in the socio-political life of Britain. The author shows how polls highlight and produce authoritative statements of public opinion on issues of public concern. He makes the point that, like it or not, polls have established themselves in the eyes of the public and politicians alike. Indeed the book goes further. it attributes polls with the fostering and promulgation of populist politics. Polls, the author argues, have given the public "il task for active involvement and participation in its destiny”. [Ililt “over and above referenda the public view gains exprcs- sion through private and published opinion polls. The govcrncd and the g~~verIiing now know what the public view is on rnosl issues and this makes public opinion a vocal and highly effective influence on events. The public now has ;I continuing say in the way the country is governed”. While this may he overstating the case. it is undeniable that polls are used as indications of public feeling by political parties. by pressure groups and by a variety of other organisations. Their findings are quoted in support of policy initiatives or used to substantiate arguments.

This book is of interest to those economic psychologists investigating lay beliefs and preferences expressed through opinion polls and how these can be influential in economic policy making.

Clemens argues that polls have gained in importance due to the changing nature: of British politics. He purports that voters in Britain vote on specific issues which match their personal interests. Elections, he ni~int~ins, have become issue-based. In support of this he devotes the first two chapters of the book to illus[r~ting the role of opinion polls in the 1979 election and the way issues became pertinent. Polls enable political parties to find out which issues concern the public and by so doing enable them to cnpitalise on this. While purists may argue

0167-4ft70/54/$3.00 0 19x4, El. wvier Scicncc Publishers 1I.V. (North-f lolland)

that this amounts to ‘buying votes’ and subjugating the role of ideol-

ogy. there may have been an element of truth in Clemens’ argument.

Undoubtedly the Conservative Party in the 1979 General Election

offered the public what the opinion polls said they wanted. HoLvever

perhaps this is too complistic a view for Clemens does not examine

what influences people in their choice of ‘issue’ preferences. The point

here is that preferences are not wholly decided by self interest and that

people will react and form preferences as a result of multiple-stimuli.

one of which will be political ideology. (This has been illustrated by

Edgell and Duke (1982); Lewis (1950); and Holland and hloon (1982)

as well as a public opinion poll conducted by Marplan in 1981

concerned with the public expenditure preferences and political ideol-

ogy of members of the public. The above works concluded that identifi-

cation with one or other of the political parties was instrumental in

deciding which public expenditure preferences were chosen.)

The underlying theme of the book however, is the role which public

opinion polls have in extending democracy and to an extent it is in this

area where inconsistencies tend to develop in the author’s arguments.

Clemens (in the book) never really resolves the prohlcm of who initiates

the polls. Polls arc commissioned by political partics, by the media and

by pressure groups. It is thcsc who dccidc the issues on which the

public will be qucstioncd, not the public at large. Public opinion

therefore is only gauged on those areas about which questions arc

asked. Thus, to this cxtcnt the polls thcmsclvcs make an issue current.

To say therefore. that individuals now have polls to “echo their views

and exert influence on Government on their behalf” or that opinion

polls “now enable public opinion to exercise major political power in

its own right” is to OVCrStiltC thC C;lSC.

In his introduction the author states his purpose as “to open a

debate on the values and dangers of public opinion polls and their

influence” and this he has done. While in places, criticisms of polls.

their structure and operation may appear muted, the reader is still made

aware that there are shortcomings. Indeed the author himself acknowl-

edges that “polls have achieved a credibility that is sometimes in

advance of their techniques”.

In this conclusion the author maintains that, “The aim of this book

has been to demonstrate that a new And important force has found its

way into politics. This is the acquisition of political power by gener-

alised public opinion as expressed in published public opinion polls”,

thus attributing a positive role to polls. Whether he does this is debatable. There appears to be an ambivalence in the way in which the author views the influence of the polls. At one juncture he states that opinion polls are just one stimulus of many in forming opinion. indeed. with respect to voting behaviour he states (p. 136). “...so it seems unlikely that they (public opinion polls) have a direct influence on individual voting behaviour”; however, later he says (p. 183). “Their (public opinion polls) influence upon voting behaviour is unknown but there is little doubt that it is significant.”

It is this confusion which serves to undermine many of the major arguments of the book and while Clemens raises many valid points. in many places his years spent as pollster seem to have coloured his arguments.

Diane Jackson Ukersit_y of hth

School of Ilurnmitic~s trrltl Social Sciences Butit BA’ 7A Y

U. K.

Hefcrcrwcs

Donald W. Katzner. Atw!v.si.s ~c*irlrolrf tmw.surcvw~~~. Cambridge Univer- sity Press, Cambridge. 1983. pp. 304 + xiv. f 19.50.

Theories built with quantified variables can be tested for internal or logical consistency using standard mathematical techniques. For exam-