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Relevant • Independent • Objective
Citygate and US$1.80 per MMBtu at California Composite Average).7 Why are Natural Gas Prices Low? There are several reasons. From the supply-side perspective, major factors affecting prices include the amount of natural gas produced in Canada and the US and the amount of natural gas in storage. From the demand-side, the main factor is variations in winter and summer weather. The US is the largest natural gas producer in the world, producing 20 percent of world production.8 Russia is a close second, producing 19 percent of world production.9 In October 2015, total US production averaged 79 Bcfpd, down from an all-time high of 80 Bcfpd in September 2015. In 2014, the average total production was 74.9 Bcfpd, up from 70.0 Bcfpd in 2013; in 2015 (January-October) production averages 79.1 Bcfpd. Figure 2 shows total marketable production in the US, as well as the top 5 producing states. According to the EIA,10 the top 5 producing states as of October 2015 are Texas (21.3 Bcfpd), Pennsylvania (13.0 Bcfpd), Oklahoma (6.9 Bcfpd), Louisiana (5.27 Bcfpd) and Wyoming (4.8 Bcfpd). Figure 2: US Marketable Production, Top 5 States (Bcfpd)
Source: EIA11 & CERI12
January 2016
CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas
Turm-oil in Natural Gas Markets Paul Kralovic On December 23, 2015 the daily spot price at Henry Hub dropped to US$1.63 per MMBtu, its lowest point since December 11, 1998 when the natural price ended up at US$1.55 per MMBtu.1 Eliminating the fact that the spot price is a mere blip on the radar, the monthly average price at Henry Hub in December 2015 was US$1.93 per MMBtu, the lowest since March 1999.2 And while prices have fluctuated since, increasing to a high of US$2.54 per MMBtu on January 11, 2016, the price of natural gas is now plummeting once again.3 As of February 22, 2016, the Henry Hub spot price is US$1.80 per MMBtu.4 Figure 1 illustrates the price of natural gas from January 2000 to present. Figure 1: Natural Gas Spot Prices (Henry Hub)
Source: EIA5 & CERI6
While Henry Hub is the benchmark price North American natural gas, the low price of natural gas is mirrored in major trading hubs across North America (US$1.94 per MMBtu at New York, US$1.90 per MMBtu at Chicago
CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial Committee: Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Jon Rozhon, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].
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With conventional natural gas production decreasing, the importance of tight gas and shale gas in the US cannot be understated. Increases in US production are led by dry shale gas production. As of January 2016, the Marcellus Shale produced 15.4 Bcfpd, accounting for approximately 37 percent of the total shale gas production in the US.13 This is followed by East Texas’ Eagle Ford at 4.7 Bcfpd, the Haynesville at 3.6 Bcfpd and the Barnett Shale at 3.3 Bcfpd.14 It is, however, important to note that production in the aforementioned plays is decreasing in the past few months. The Marcellus and Eagle Ford, for example, are down from record-highs in September 2015. Two shale plays opposing the trend are the Utica Shale and Woodford Shale; production in January 2016 in both are at record-high levels of 3.1 Bcfpd and 2.1 Bcfpd, respectively.15 Emerging sources of shale and tight gas are changing the dynamics of US supply. The top producing states coincide with states with high shale gas production. While Texas is a traditional gas producer in the US, it is also home to the Eagle Ford Basin, the Barnett Shale and the western portion of the Haynesville Shale. Pennsylvania, the second largest producing state, was a relatively small producer prior to 2010. That changed with the rapid growth of the Marcellus and Utica Shale. Other states not included in the top 5 whose fortunes are growing with the two aforementioned shales located in the Appalachian Basin include Ohio, West Virginia and New York. Oklahoma, the third largest natural gas producer in the US, is home to the Woodford Shale. While production is beginning to taper off in the past several months, US natural gas production remains high and surprisingly resilient. Another important component affecting the price of natural gas is the level of natural gas inventories. Currently, working gas storage levels in the US are at near record levels. According to the EIA, US working natural gas totaled about 2,584 Bcf as of the week ending February 19, 2016.16 While storage levels are being drawn down, this is approximately 577 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,007 Bcf and 615 Bcf above last year’s total of 1,969 Bcf for the same period.17 This is 31.2 percent higher than the same time a year ago and 28.7 percent higher than the 5-year average.18 Figure 3 illustrates the current natural gas storage levels in the Lower-48 and is compared with the 5-year average and the 5-year maximum and minimum range. Note that
in the weeks of November 13, 2015 and November 20, 2015, working gas in storage surpassed the 4,000 Bcf level. Figure 3: Working Natural Gas in Underground Storage in the US (Bcf)
Source: EIA19
Weather certainly plays an important role in determining natural gas prices from the demand-side of the equation. It is intrinsically intertwined with residential and commercial end users using natural gas for space and heating needs during winter months and space and cooling needs for summer months. Save for a few blasts of winter in the US eastern region, 2015-2016 is milder than expected. As a result, demand for natural gas in the US is weaker-than-normal. As of week ending February 11, 2016, there have been 198 heating degree days (HDDs)20 in the US, down 11 HDDs from the normal.21 The Pacific, Mountain and Middle Atlantic regions have been warmer-than-expected, down 57 HDDs, 23 HDDs and 17 HDDs from normal.22 Other regions, however, have experienced colder-than-normal temperatures. The South Atlantic region and East South Central region have recorded 197 HDDs and 206 HDDs, respectively. This is 28 days and 36 days higher than expected. For the week ending February 17, 2016, US consumption is down 5.6 percent from mid-February 2015.23 While power generation is up 4.8 percent over the last year, fueled by the phasing out of coal, industrial demand is down 2.6 percent and residential/commercial demand is down a whopping 11.5 percent from mid-February 2015.24 Unfortunately, the outlook for natural gas remains bleak for the rest of 2016. The EIA forecasts that Henry Hub
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spot prices will average US$2.64 per MMBtu in 2016 but will be expected to increase to US$3.22 per MMBtu in 2017.25 This is compared to an average of US$2.63 per MMBtu in 2015.26 While US natural gas production remains high, the EIA anticipates growth to slow down to 0.7 percent in 2016 and to slightly rebound to 2.0 percent growth in 2017.27 In terms of storage levels, pundits anticipate a withdrawal of inventories to 1.862 Bcf28 while the EIA forecasts that storage will be 2,096 Bcf at the end of the winter season, approximately 41 percent higher than the same time last year.29 The price of natural gas has been in a slide since the Polar Vortex weather event in early 2014, tumbling to the sub-US$2.00 level. Remarkably, the turmoil in natural gas markets is going relatively unnoticed, with energy-related news focussing on volatile oil prices. Endnotes 1US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, Daily, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdd.htm 2US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, Monthly, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdM.htm 3US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, Daily, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdd.htm 4InvestmentMine, Historical Natural Gas Prices and Price Chart, http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/natural-gas/all/ 5US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, Monthly, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdM.htm 6CERI added dialog on figure 7US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Weekly Update (for week ending February 17, 2016), http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-prices-2 8Natural Resources Canada website, Energy Markets Fact Book 2014-2015, http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/files/pdf/2014/14-0173EnergyMarketFacts_e.pdf, pp. 38 9ibid 10US Energy Information Administration website, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals and Production (Volumes in Million Cubic Feet converted to Bcfpd), Marketed Production, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_a_EPG0_VGM_mmcf_m.htm
11US Energy Information Administration website, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals and Production (Volumes in Million Cubic Feet converted to Bcfpd), Marketed Production, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_a_EPG0_VGM_mmcf_m.htm 12Graphic is created by CERI for its monthly Natural Gas Commodity Report 13US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Weekly Update (for week ending February 17, 2016), http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-prices-2 14US Energy Information Administration website, Energy in Brief, Shale in the United States, US dry shale gas production figure data, http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/article/shale_in_the_united_states.cfm 15US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Weekly Update (for week ending February 17, 2016), http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-prices-2 16US Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage (for week ending February 19, 2016), http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_stor_wkly_s1_w.htm 17ibid 18US Energy Information Administration, Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (for week ending February 19, 2016), http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html 19US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Weekly Update (for week ending February 17, 2016), http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-storage-1 20Heating Degree Days are a measure of how cold a location is, the daily average temperature falls below 65° F (18.3 °C). 21US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Weekly Update (for week ending February 17, 2016), http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-prices-2 22ibid 23ibid 24ibid 25US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (Release Date: February 9, 2016), http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/ 26ibid 27US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (Release Date: February 9, 2016), https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/natgas.cfm 28Market Watch, Natural Gas Prices Sink Back to 2012 Levels, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/natural-gas-prices-sink-back-to-2012-levels-2015-12-11 29US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (Release Date: February 9, 2016), http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/
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14
Ju
n-1
4S
ep
-14
Dec-1
4M
ar-
15
Ju
n-1
5S
ep
-15
Dec-1
5
Fre
ep
ort
La
ke
Ch
arl
es
Sa
bin
e P
as
sC
am
ero
nG
old
en
Pa
ss
Gu
lf L
NG
US
G
oM
L
NG
Im
po
rts B
y F
ac
ility (B
cf)
05
10
15
20
Dec-1
3M
ar-
14
Ju
n-1
4S
ep
-14
Dec-1
4M
ar-
15
Ju
n-1
5S
ep
-15
Dec-1
5
Oth
er
Nig
eri
aT
rin
ida
dN
orw
ay
Qa
tar
Ye
me
n
US
L
NG
Im
po
rts B
y O
rig
in
(B
cf)
02468
10
12
14
16
18
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
20
13
20
14
20
15
Volum
e-W
eighted A
verage LN
G P
rice (U
S$/M
MB
tu)
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 13
SOU
RC
E: U
S D
OE,
NEB
.
SOU
RC
E: U
S D
OE.
SOU
RC
E: E
IA, U
S D
OE.
SO
UR
CE:
US
DO
E.
0123456
De
c-1
3M
ar-
14
Ju
n-1
4S
ep
-14
De
c-1
4M
ar-
15
Ju
n-1
5S
ep
-15
De
c-1
5
Jap
an
Taiw
an
US
L
NG
E
xp
orts to
J
ap
an
a
nd
T
aiw
an
(B
cf)
01234567
De
c-1
3M
ar-
14
Ju
n-1
4S
ep
-14
De
c-1
4M
ar-
15
Ju
n-1
5S
ep
-15
De
c-1
5
Tu
rke
yB
razil
Eg
yp
t
US
L
NG
R
e-E
xp
orts
By D
estin
atio
n (B
cf)
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
Page 14
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
CA
OD
C, B
aker
Hu
ghes
. SO
UR
CE:
CER
I, C
AO
DC
.
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
CA
OD
C.
0
500
1,0
00
1,5
00
2,0
00
2,5
00
3,0
00 Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
US
WC
SB
No
rth
A
me
ric
an
A
ctive
R
ig
s
0
100
200
300
40
0
500
60
0
700
80
0
900
1,0
00 Ja
n-0
6J
an
-07
Ja
n-0
8J
an
-09
Ja
n-1
0J
an
-11
Ja
n-1
2J
an
-13
Ja
n-1
4J
an
-15
Ja
n-1
6
Acti
ve R
igs
To
tal R
ig D
rillin
g F
leet
Ca
na
dia
n R
ig
F
le
et U
tiliza
tio
n
We
ek
ly A
ve
ra
ge
A
ctive
R
ig
s
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700 Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
SK
AB
BC
WC
SB
A
ctive
R
ig
s b
y P
ro
vin
ce
We
ek
ly A
ve
ra
ge
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
15
913
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
We
ste
rn
C
an
ad
a A
ctive
R
ig
s
We
ek
ly A
ve
ra
ge
Week N
um
ber
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
CA
OD
C.
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 15
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
Bak
er H
ugh
es.
SO
UR
CE:
CER
I, B
aker
Hu
ghe
s.
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
Bak
er H
ugh
es.
0%
10%
20%
30
%
40%
50
%
60%
70
%
80%
90
%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1,0
00
1,2
00
1,4
00
1,6
00
1,8
00
2,0
00
2,2
00
2,4
00 Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Oil-d
irecte
dG
as-d
irecte
dG
as-d
irecte
d %
US
T
ota
l O
il-
an
d G
as-d
ire
cte
d A
ctive
R
ig
s
0
500
1,0
00
1,5
00
2,0
00
2,5
00 Ja
n-0
6J
an
-07
Ja
n-0
8J
an
-09
Ja
n-1
0J
an
-11
Ja
n-1
2J
an
-13
Ja
n-1
4J
an
-15
Ja
n-1
6
To
tal O
il-d
irecte
dG
oM
Gas-d
irecte
dO
nsh
ore
Gas-d
irecte
d
US
T
ota
l A
ctive
R
ig
s
0
20
40
60
80
100
120 J
an
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Oil-d
irecte
dG
as-d
irecte
d
US
G
ulf o
f M
ex
ic
o A
ctive
R
ig
s
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
Page 16
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
Pla
tt’s
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
Pla
tt’s
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
Pla
tt’s
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
Pla
tt’s
Gas
Dai
ly.
0
100
20
0
300
400
500
600
700
800
90
0
1,0
00
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
Ca
na
dia
n W
ork
in
g G
as S
to
ra
ge
(B
cf, M
on
th
-end)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5M
ay
-15
Ju
l-1
5S
ep
-15
No
v-1
5J
an
-16
West
East
Ca
na
dia
n S
to
ra
ge
b
y R
eg
io
n (B
cf, M
on
th
-e
nd
)
0
500
1,0
00
1,5
00
2,0
00
2,5
00
3,0
00
3,5
00
4,0
00
4,5
00
5,0
00
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
US
L
ow
er-4
8 W
ork
in
g G
as S
to
ra
ge
(B
cf, M
on
th
-e
nd
)
0
500
1,0
00
1,5
00
2,0
00
2,5
00
3,0
00
3,5
00
4,0
00
4,5
00
Ja
n-1
5M
ar-
15
Ma
y-1
5J
ul-
15
Se
p-1
5N
ov-1
5J
an
-16
East
Mid
west
Mo
un
tain
Pacif
icS
ou
th C
en
tral
US
S
to
ra
ge
b
y R
eg
io
n (B
cf, M
on
th
-e
nd
)
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 17
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
Pla
tt’s
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
Pla
tt’s
Gas
Dai
ly.
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
Pla
tt’s
Gas
Dai
ly.
-140
-100
-60
-20
20
60
100
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
WC
_IJ
_W
D
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
We
ste
rn
C
an
ad
ia
n S
to
ra
ge
In
je
ctio
ns/W
ith
dra
wa
ls
(B
cf, M
on
th
-end)
-10
0
-80
-60
-40
-200
20
40
60
80
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
Ea
ste
rn
C
an
ad
ia
n S
to
ra
ge
In
je
ctio
ns/W
ith
dra
wa
ls
(B
cf, M
on
th
-end)
-200
-150
-100
-500
50
100
150
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
Ca
na
dia
n S
to
ra
ge
In
je
ctio
ns/W
ith
dra
wa
ls
(B
cf, M
on
th
-e
nd
)
CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas
Page 18
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
EIA
. SO
UR
CE:
CER
I, E
IA.
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
EIA
.
-250
-200
-150
-100
-500
50
100
15
0
200
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
US
E
ast S
to
ra
ge
In
je
ctio
ns/W
ith
dra
wa
ls
(B
cf, M
on
th
-end)
-30
0
-20
0
-1000
100
200
300
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
US
M
id
we
st R
eg
io
n S
to
ra
ge
In
je
ctio
ns/W
ith
dra
wa
ls
-40
-30
-20
-100
10
20
30
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
US
M
ou
nta
in
R
eg
io
n S
to
ra
ge
In
je
ctio
ns/W
ith
dra
wa
ls
(B
cf, M
on
th
-end)
-80
-60
-40
-200
20
40
60
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
US
P
ac
ific
R
eg
io
n S
to
ra
ge
In
je
ctio
ns/W
ith
dra
wa
ls
(B
cf, M
on
th
-e
nd
)
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
EIA
.
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 19
SOU
RC
E: C
ERI,
EIA
. SO
UR
CE:
CER
I, E
IA.
-300
-200
-1000
100
200
30
0
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
US
S
ou
th
C
en
tra
l R
eg
io
n S
to
ra
ge
In
je
ctio
ns/W
ith
dra
wa
ls
(B
cf, M
on
th
-e
nd
)
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-2000
200
400
600
800
JF
MA
MJ
JA
SO
ND
5-Y
ear
Avg
.2015
2016
US
S
to
ra
ge
In
je
ctio
ns/W
ith
dra
wa
ls
(B
cf, M
on
th
-e
nd
)
