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May 2015
CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil
Relevant • Independent • Objective
CERI Commodity Report – Crude Oil Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington ([email protected]) About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. We strive to build bridges between scholarship and policy, combining the insights of scientific research, economic analysis, and practical experience. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca.
China’s economy, it is difficult to ascertain where government ends and private enterprise begins. As matters stand, the “financing of the project is still shrouded in mystery…”4 Time will tell if and by whom financing will be assured. And even if adequate capital is raised, not everyone in Nicaragua is on board with this project. Daniel Ortega, the country’s President, supports the canal, seeing it as moving the impoverished country toward a modern commercial focus. But there is opposition on a number of fronts: from citizens facing land expropriation to environmental reports decrying a project that could jeopardize rainforests, wild life, and the purity of Lake Nicaragua for drinking water and irrigation (see Figure 1). Ortega has dismissed the environmental concerns, saying the lake is “already contaminated”.5 These words have not served to assuage Nicaraguans’ concerns, and opposition to the project continues. Figure 1: Nicaragua Canal Route
Map Source: Nicaragua-community.com
How big will this canal be, and how much more shipping traffic will it be able to take on? It is larger in length and depth than either of the world’s other major canals – the Suez and the Panama – and only marginally less wide than the Suez, as Figure 2 indicates.
The Nicaragua Canal – Does the Largest Excavation Project in Human History Stand a Chance? Jon Rozhon The proposed Nicaragua Canal project is being run by a Hong-Kong based corporation, the Hong Kong Nicaragua Canal Development Investment Company (HKND), and led by 42 year-old Chinese telecom billionaire Wang Jing. The project, though receiving considerable media coverage, has not yet moved beyond the front-end engineering phase. Perhaps not wishing to test the limits of the nearly 200-year-old Monroe doctrine – which considers the presence in Latin America of other foreign powers as a threat to US interests in the region – Wang insists that the Chinese Government is not involved and that the project is more of a monument to internationalism than a Chinese push into the US’ backyard: “’Now the global economy is so developed, you can’t say anything is in anybody’s backyard’, he said. ‘This canal will benefit the US economy. I think Americans will be happy to see it.’”1 It is hard to envision how the Nicaragua canal could go ahead without Chinese government assistance since it is of a size, scope, and expense that almost always requires the backing of government – and the chronically cash-strapped Government of Nicaragua, with a GDP in the range of $11 billion,2 is in no position to finance the 5-year, $50 billion project. Wang says that “For decades now, Chinese firms have built up a wealth of experience and expertise with large infrastructure projects. So having Chinese companies leading this project adds enormously to its prospects of success.”3 However, with the central government closely involved in all aspects of
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
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Figure 2: The Size of the Suez, Panama and Proposed Nicaragua Canals
Source: HKND
Because the Nicaragua Canal will be wider and deeper than today’s Panama Canal and the expanded Panama Canal to be completed in 2016, it will be able to accommodate much bigger vessels along the same oceanic routes. This is especially advantageous in terms of crude and petroleum products, because the enlarged Panamax-sized vessels crossing the isthmus next year will still be limited to a carrying capacity of 100,000 DWT – and this size limitation results in higher shipping costs.6 HKND claim that Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC’s),7 some of the largest tankers in the world at 320,000 DWT, will be able to pass comfortably through the Nicaragua Canal. In fact, the canal will not be looking to serve Panama’s present clients; HKND claim the Nicaragua project “is intended to primarily provide transit for ships too large for the expanded Panama Canal”.8 Presently, only 6 ships at a time can pass through the Panama Canal. Though this may seem like a small number, over the course of a day this adds up to as many as 40 ships making their way from one ocean to the other – 14,000 in a year.9 By comparison, the Nicaragua Canal as planned will never be as busy as the Panama route. Nicaragua will average approximately 3,500 ships per year at the outset (rising to 5,100 by mid-century), of which 99 are assumed to be crude carrying vessels, 181 will be shipping refined petroleum products (RPP’s), and 11 will contain liquefied natural gas (LNG).10 According to the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), a VLCC can carry approximately 2 million barrels of WTI-grade crude oil.11 It can be expected, then, that a daily average of about 542,000 barrels of crude and 1,108,000 bpd of
RPP’s (assumed here to be gasoline) will pass through the Nicaragua Canal if and when it is finally in operation. These volumes could flow in either direction, of course, but initial traffic would likely move from East to West. US and Mexican Gulf Coast crude could conceivably be on board the carriers, as could Venezuelan Heavy, and perhaps even some West African supply (if, for example, piracy or other issues caused bottlenecks on the usual route to Asia around the Cape of Good Hope and through the Malacca Strait – see Figure 3).12 Destinations for the oil and RPP’s would naturally be the major crude consuming nations of China, Japan, and South Korea. Some shipments could find their way up the North American coast to California and as far south as Chile. Tanker rates are variable as are bunker fuel costs, but shippers can control the routes taken: The shorter the route, the lower the total shipping costs. Using Panama Canal data as a proxy for the Nicaragua Canal, a speed of 20 knots, and without considering port calls, the travel times from the US Gulf Coast to Asian destinations are shown in Table 1. Table 1: Gulf Coast Oil to Asia – Possible Transportation Routes for VLCC’s
Source: EIA.
Reduced travel time through Nicaragua and the ability to ship increased volumes through VLCC’s combine to provide Gulf Coast shippers significant cost advantages to their Asian destinations. Figure 3: World Oceanic Shipping Routes
Source: Science Magazine, CERI
Reading through various media analyses of the Nicaragua Canal, the project appears technically too difficult to pull off, the money too hard to raise, the HKND and its young CEO too inexperienced in infrastructure projects. There is also the question of how the US would react to a competing waterway a few hundred miles north of the
Route Time (days) Distance (nautical miles)
via Nicaragua Canal 20 9,640
via Suez Canal 29.5 14,178
via Cape of Good Hope (S. Africa) 31.6 15,417
via Cape Horn (Chile) 35.6 17,112
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Panama Canal. It is remarkable how similar the story is to the development of the Panama Canal over a century ago. Back then, the project was proposed by a French entrepreneur, Phillippe Bunau-Varilla, who spent much time and effort trying to secure funds from European investors. He failed initially, but after US President Theodore Roosevelt was convinced of the canal’s usefulness, much gunboat diplomacy ensued. Following that was the birth of a nation (Panama), and a canal eventually built under US auspices – the nascent colonial power was then given the right by Panama to operate the canal in perpetuity.13 Bunau-Varilla was involved in the project to the very end, some 20 years after he started work on it. HKND also has been granted the right to operate the Nicaragua Canal, not in perpetuity, but for one hundred years. This project could fail at the beginning as so many predict, but that does not mean the world will see the end of Wang Jing, just as Phillippe Bunau-Varilla did not disappear after his initial difficulties in Panama. Wang describes himself as a patriot and appears well connected within the Communist Party of China.14 If, in the end, the project requires more than corporate underwriting – namely the full force of Chinese government support – he may well be the man to secure it. Assuming the canal goes ahead, there will be competing canal zones, one under de facto US control (it ceded to Panama in 1999 full operational control) and one under de jure Chinese control – the economic colossus of the 20th century competing against the burgeoning power of the 21st. If the two nations can find a way to operate these waterways side-by-side, crude shipments would likely become cheaper and routes would be shortened. China would then be able to source crude from the Middle East by Ultra Large Crude Carriers (ULCC’s); secure further supply via pipeline from China, Burma, and Central Asia; and gain access to even more volumes by VLCC through the Nicaragua Canal. Japan and Korea, too, could gain leverage in crude markets. Part of Asia’s cost of doing business with Middle East oil supplying nations has been to pay the “Asian premium” on tanker-shipped oil. This practice could become a thing of the past with competing, new supplies arriving via Nicaragua. Before any significant digging occurs, money must be found, and environmentalists and Nicaraguan citizens must be persuaded that the benefits of the project outweigh the costs. Perhaps most importantly for Wang
Jing and HKND, the United States must be convinced that the project is indeed an economic boon to the region and not a geopolitical threat. In the meantime, the government of Nicaragua is expected to announce its final decision in July on whether or not to allow the project to proceed. Endnotes 1Gracie, Carrie. “Wang Jing: The man behind the Nicaragua canal project. BBC News. March 18, 2015. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-31936549 Accessed June 9, 2015. 2World Bank data. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD Accessed June 9, 2015. 3Ibid. Gracie. 4Ibid. Gracie. 5Anderson, Jon Lee. “Breaking Ground on the Nicaragua Canal”. The New Yorker. January 2, 2015. http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/breaking-ground-nicaragua-canal Accessed June 9, 2015. 6EIA. “Panama Canal expansion will allow transit of larger ships with greater volumes”. September 17, 2014. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=18011 Accessed June 9, 2015. 7The only class of larger crude carriers are the Ultra Large Crude Carriers, which can ship in excess of 500 DWT. 8HKND. http://hknd-group.com/upload/pdf/20150105/Nicaragua_Canal_Project_Description_EN.pdf Page 7. Accessed June 9, 2015. 9Smith, Roff. “A Hundred Years Old Today, the Panama Canal Is About to Get a Lot Bigger”. National Geographic online. August 16, 2014. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/08/140815-panama-canal-culebra-cut-lake-gatun-focus/ Accessed June 9, 2015. 10Ibid. HKND Group. 11EIA. “Oil tanker sizes range from general purpose to ultra-large crude carriers on AFRA scale”. September 16, 2015. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17991 Accessed June 9, 2015. 12It is noteworthy that the HKND proposal assumes so many shipments of RPP’s would pass through their canal on a yearly basis; there must therefore be a presumption that the US would be on side with the project, since the US exports more RPP’s than any other nation in the world, and much of that activity centres on the Gulf Coast – no other major RPP centre is anywhere near as close to Nicaragua as the US Gulf Coast. 13See Koster, R.M. and Guillermo Sanchez. In the Time of the Tyrants. New York: WW Norton & Company. 1990. Pp 383-95 for a fascinating account of the history of the Panama Canal. 14Ibid. Gracie.
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CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
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CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 8
World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)
OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)
WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel)
2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
World Demand 90.6 91.9 92.6 94.0 90.7 91.4 92.6 93.0 91.7 91.6 93.1 93.8 93.5 93.1 94.3 95.0
OECD 45.9 46.1 45.6 46.0 45.9 45.6 46.4 46.6 45.7 44.7 45.8 46.3 46.5 45.1 46.1 46.5
non-OECD 44.7 45.8 46.9 47.9 44.8 45.8 46.2 46.4 46.0 46.9 47.3 47.5 47.0 47.9 48.3 48.5
World Supply 90.9 91.4 93.7 95.3 90.4 91.3 91.8 91.9 92.2 93.0 94.1 95.3 95.3 95.4 95.2 95.4
Non-OPEC 53.3 54.6 57.0 58.0 53.7 54.1 54.9 55.8 55.9 56.6 57.2 58.3 58.3 58.0 57.7 57.9
OPEC NGLs 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7
OPEC Crude 28.4 27.4 27.0 27.3 30.5 30.9 30.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.8 30.9 30.8
Supply - Demand1 0.3 -0.6 1.1 1.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 0.5 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.3 0.9 0.4
OECD
Stocks (MMbbls) 2665 2657 2662 2697 2566 2582 2652 2720 2712 2780 2885 2924
Days Cover 58 58 57 58 56 58 58 59 58 62 63 63
Sustainable
Capacity Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15
Saudi Arabia 10.85 10.19 10.17 10.26 2.14 2.12 2.21
Iran 4.00 2.79 2.88 2.85 -0.55 -0.46 -0.49
UAE 2.85 2.84 2.87 2.87 0.62 0.65 0.65
Kuwait 2.65 2.80 2.81 2.77 0.58 0.59 0.55
Qatar 0.90 0.68 0.67 0.67 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06
Nigeria 2.60 1.74 1.80 1.76 0.07 0.13 0.09
Libya 1.75 0.48 0.52 0.45 -0.99 -0.95 -1.02
Algeria 1.43 1.12 1.11 1.11 -0.08 -0.09 -0.09
Ecuador 0.49 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.12 0.12 0.12
OPEC-11 32.12 27.34 27.53 27.48 -2.66 -2.47 -2.52
Iraq1 2.50 3.70 3.75 3.85
Total OPEC 34.62 31.04 31.28 31.33
Production Over (+)/Under (-) Target
2013 2014 2015 2016 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
High Price Case 63.07 64.35 62.70 63.80 62.70 63.80 64.90
Reference Case 98.03 93.28 55.12 58.50 103.06 97.59 73.62 48.49 57.00 58.00 57.00 58.00 59.00
Low Price Case 48.73 49.73 48.45 49.30 48.45 49.30 50.15
Relevant • Independent • Objective
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Data Appendix
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 10
A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)
A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)
Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average con-
tract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip
Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward
prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
NYMEX Light Sweet Crude
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2012 94.86 95.15 95.30 96.89 -0.35
2013 96.82 97.37 97.01 97.45 -0.12
2014 96.53 96.37 96.73 87.56 0.54
2Q 2014 101.33 101.93 101.28 99.77 0.69
3Q 2014 102.58 102.08 102.22 99.28 0.90
4Q 2014 83.30 83.34 86.59 86.30 0.56
1Q 2015 51.08 51.34 54.75 56.95 -0.47
2Q 2015 53.32 53.04 52.84 56.55 -1.51
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -47.4% -48.0% -47.8% -43.3%
Jun-14 102.44 102.36 100.91 99.10 0.68
Jul-14 107.26 106.55 104.44 102.90 0.71
Aug-14 104.42 104.05 103.81 97.86 0.73
Sep-14 96.07 95.65 98.42 97.09 1.27
Oct-14 91.52 92.33 93.49 92.94 0.78
Nov-14 82.81 82.76 87.91 87.10 0.81
Dec-14 75.58 74.92 78.37 78.87 0.10
Jan-15 56.52 55.70 64.33 65.55 -0.19
Feb-15 46.39 47.11 50.64 52.78 -0.45
Mar-15 50.34 51.21 49.29 52.53 -0.78
Apr-15 45.72 44.78 47.98 52.78 -1.84
May-15 55.26 55.79 51.65 55.42 -1.57
Jun-15 58.98 58.56 58.89 61.46 -1.12
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -42.4% -42.8% -41.6% -38.0%
NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2012 296.8 295.4 291.2 274.6 5.0 301.8 301.7 301.9 307.0 -1.4
2013 284.3 285.6 284.5 274.2 0.5 298.2 299.0 298.9 304.9 -0.5
2014 270.6 272.8 271.8 260.8 1.7 285.9 287.7 286.4 290.2 1.4
2Q 2014 297.2 299.1 296.7 282.1 2.1 291.7 293.7 294.5 298.7 0.9
3Q 2014 289.7 289.9 289.6 264.6 6.6 290.5 291.5 290.1 297.6 -0.8
4Q 2014 222.0 227.8 230.0 218.0 4.8 246.4 251.5 256.3 261.0 0.7
1Q 2015 153.9 151.7 152.1 165.9 -9.1 194.4 189.3 188.0 186.9 5.3
2Q 2015 197.2 194.1 191.8 181.2 0.5 188.3 185.6 186.1 192.9 0.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -33.6% -35.1% -35.4% -35.8% -35.5% -36.8% -36.8% -35.4%
Jun-14 299.7 300.6 295.8 281.0 1.9 288.5 291.2 293.0 298.2 0.3
Jul-14 307.7 308.7 304.5 278.3 3.1 297.1 299.4 296.4 303.6 -0.7
Aug-14 283.1 284.8 291.0 265.7 2.9 288.7 289.5 288.7 296.9 -1.1
Sep-14 278.3 276.1 273.4 249.9 13.7 285.7 285.6 285.2 292.4 -0.6
Oct-14 258.7 264.8 259.0 240.4 8.2 264.7 268.4 274.5 281.7 -0.6
Nov-14 217.0 219.6 225.3 214.5 4.5 251.5 252.1 253.3 258.4 0.5
Dec-14 190.4 199.0 205.8 199.0 1.8 223.1 234.1 241.3 242.9 2.3
Jan-15 143.5 144.7 161.8 173.3 -1.4 184.7 185.5 200.9 200.7 3.2
Feb-15 141.5 137.1 134.1 149.9 -3.5 168.6 164.5 167.1 168.8 2.5
Mar-15 176.8 173.2 160.5 174.6 -22.4 229.9 218.0 196.1 191.2 10.3
Apr-15 178.0 179.3 182.6 172.6 0.3 171.8 172.6 178.2 183.2 1.8
May-15 205.0 202.3 189.9 180.4 0.1 197.6 194.7 184.0 191.9 -0.5
Jun-15 208.6 200.5 202.8 190.6 1.2 195.5 189.4 196.3 203.6 -0.4
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -30.4% -33.3% -31.4% -32.1% -32.2% -35.0% -33.0% -31.7%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 11
A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. Edmonton Light Sweet prices are discontinued as of May 1, 2014 and replaced by the Canadian Light Crude
blend which is traded daily on the Net Energy Index. 3. Hardisty Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal;
Natural Resources Canada.
Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.
Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas
2012 110.27 109.11 109.39 111.62 112.67 110.50 103.85 108.98 102.82 106.57 113.68 116.63
2013 106.60 105.51 105.57 108.69 109.89 108.05 96.71 105.10 97.77 105.16 111.41 107.32
2014 97.07 96.61 96.94 99.00 99.78 98.01 86.87 95.21 87.25 93.58 100.77 98.63
1Q 2014 105.61 104.46 104.46 108.23 109.24 106.83 93.65 103.67 95.28 98.56 110.18 110.89
2Q 2014 106.43 106.09 106.23 109.67 110.73 108.06 96.25 104.63 96.32 103.45 112.26 110.16
3Q 2014 102.21 101.44 101.83 101.83 102.37 101.45 92.33 100.46 90.65 97.56 103.17 100.02
4Q 2014 74.04 74.44 75.25 76.28 76.76 75.69 65.25 72.09 66.74 74.73 77.47 73.44
1Q 2015 50.15 52.03 52.77 53.97 54.96 53.30 44.05 48.36 45.02 49.87 54.57 52.13
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -52.5% -50.2% -49.5% -50.1% -49.7% -50.1% -53.0% -53.4% -52.8% -49.4% -50.5% -53.0%
May-14 105.80 105.55 105.71 109.67 110.86 107.84 96.06 104.21 95.47 102.59 112.22 107.22
Jun-14 108.61 108.03 108.06 111.66 112.67 109.44 98.71 106.56 98.75 106.47 114.36 112.13
Jul-14 107.15 106.13 106.15 106.64 107.33 106.23 95.06 105.50 95.21 102.20 109.19 105.06
Aug-14 102.24 101.73 102.15 101.56 102.04 101.98 93.31 100.57 89.53 96.78 102.26 99.94
Sep-14 97.23 96.47 97.18 97.30 97.75 96.13 88.61 95.30 87.20 93.70 98.07 95.07
Oct-14 85.93 86.73 86.77 87.41 87.87 86.63 76.17 83.99 76.84 85.40 88.51 84.46
Nov-14 76.07 76.33 77.81 78.90 79.27 78.92 68.42 74.04 69.52 79.04 80.10 75.92
Dec-14 60.13 60.25 61.16 62.53 63.15 61.53 51.17 58.25 53.86 59.74 63.81 59.95
Jan-15 44.47 45.57 46.61 47.86 48.48 47.03 37.96 42.31 42.26 45.52 48.51 46.37
Feb-15 53.78 55.85 56.58 58.13 59.22 57.81 48.41 52.25 47.00 52.68 58.46 55.90
Mar-15 52.20 54.66 55.12 55.93 57.18 55.07 45.79 50.52 45.79 51.41 56.75 54.11
Apr-15 57.73 58.55 59.02 59.50 60.75 59.70 49.49 55.96 52.73 59.10 60.65 58.55
May-15 62.62 63.54 63.68 64.32 65.57 64.33 55.09 60.92 58.04 63.78 65.31 62.98
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -40.8% -39.8% -39.8% -41.4% -40.9% -40.3% -42.7% -41.5% -39.2% -37.8% -41.8% -41.3%
United States Canada Light vs. Heavy
ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS
Okla.
Sw.
Kans.
Sw.
Mich.
So.
Wyo.
Sw.
CDN
Sweet2 HH3
2012 105.08 110.02 101.45 90.58 85.58 83.58 90.58 89.42 82.58 85.26 86.16 78.02
2013 100.20 106.62 99.05 94.46 89.46 87.65 94.46 93.48 86.46 90.27 92.93 78.90
2014 94.79 94.13 87.39 88.44 83.44 82.19 88.44 85.77 80.44 83.52 91.36 81.69
1Q 2014 96.86 106.20 99.35 97.08 92.08 90.83 97.08 89.42 89.08 92.08 88.47 84.13
2Q 2014 98.82 107.32 100.53 100.00 95.00 93.75 100.00 99.00 92.00 95.06 104.18 90.77
3Q 2014 98.33 96.38 89.95 92.42 87.42 86.17 92.42 91.42 84.42 87.29 97.75 84.40
4Q 2014 85.16 66.61 59.72 64.25 59.25 58.00 64.25 63.25 56.25 59.65 75.03 67.45
1Q 2015 60.55 52.27 41.63 46.33 41.33 40.08 46.33 44.42 38.33 42.56 53.33 43.37
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -37.5% -50.8% -58.1% -52.3% -55.1% -55.9% -52.3% -50.3% -57.0% -53.8% -39.7% -48.5%
May-14 99.10 108.96 101.70 100.75 95.75 94.50 100.75 99.75 92.75 95.85 103.79 90.66
Jun-14 99.59 107.25 101.70 102.25 97.25 96.00 102.25 101.25 94.25 97.24 105.80 94.27
Jul-14 99.80 103.10 97.45 98.50 93.50 92.25 98.50 97.50 90.50 93.17 100.07 89.38
Aug-14 101.47 97.51 90.75 92.50 87.50 86.25 92.50 91.50 84.50 87.46 96.38 81.00
Sep-14 93.71 88.53 81.65 86.25 81.25 80.00 86.25 85.25 78.25 81.24 96.80 82.81
Oct-14 93.71 79.83 73.00 77.00 72.00 70.75 77.00 76.00 69.00 72.04 87.73 80.12
Nov-14 85.02 64.19 57.10 62.75 57.75 56.50 62.75 61.75 54.75 57.65 75.39 71.77
Dec-14 76.76 55.81 49.05 53.00 48.00 46.75 53.00 52.00 45.00 49.27 61.98 50.47
Jan-15 85.02 48.28 40.40 44.75 39.75 38.50 44.75 43.75 36.75 40.99 48.48 37.55
Feb-15 53.97 54.05 41.55 46.25 41.25 40.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 42.51 55.75 46.28
Mar-15 42.65 54.47 42.95 48.00 43.00 41.75 48.00 44.25 40.00 44.18 55.75 46.28
Apr-15 46.82 61.44 51.15 53.75 48.75 47.50 53.75 52.75 45.75 49.90 62.72 49.82
May-15 46.61 62.72 54.05 56.25 51.25 50.00 56.25 55.25 48.25 52.47 70.64 58.42
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -53.0% -42.4% -46.9% -44.2% -46.5% -47.1% -44.2% -44.6% -48.0% -45.3% -31.9% -35.6%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 12
A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny
Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Notes: 1. Edmonton Light Sweet prices are discontinued as of May 1, 2014 and replaced by the Canadian Light Crude blend which is traded daily on the Net Energy Index. 2. Hardisty Heavy. Based on contract prices at the end of each month. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.
Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour
Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff.
CDN
Sweet2 HH2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff.
2012 110.27 108.36 1.92 106.57 99.74 6.83 86.20 78.06 8.14 83.58 85.58 -2.00
2013 106.60 103.96 2.64 105.16 97.74 7.42 90.13 76.52 13.61 87.65 89.46 -1.81
2014 97.07 93.57 3.50 93.58 85.88 7.69 82.59 73.85 8.74 82.19 83.44 -1.25
1Q 2014 105.61 102.06 3.55 98.56 89.48 9.09 80.24 76.31 3.94 90.83 92.08 -1.25
2Q 2014 106.43 102.94 3.48 103.45 95.26 8.19 95.54 83.24 12.30 93.75 95.00 -1.25
3Q 2014 102.21 98.85 3.35 97.56 91.19 6.37 89.77 77.51 12.26 86.17 87.42 -1.25
4Q 2014 74.04 70.43 3.62 74.73 67.60 7.13 65.56 58.93 6.62 58.00 59.25 -1.25
1Q 2015 50.15 46.89 3.26 49.87 44.36 5.51 43.14 35.08 8.06 40.08 41.33 -1.25
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -52.5% -54.1% -49.4% -50.4% -46.2% -54.0% -55.9% -55.1%
May-14 105.80 102.72 3.08 102.59 94.89 7.70 95.26 83.21 12.05 94.50 95.75 -1.25
Jun-14 108.61 104.50 4.11 106.47 97.86 8.61 97.72 87.07 10.65 96.00 97.25 -1.25
Jul-14 107.15 103.69 3.46 102.20 94.33 7.87 93.23 83.27 9.96 92.25 93.50 -1.25
Aug-14 102.24 99.14 3.10 96.78 91.10 5.68 88.21 74.13 14.08 86.25 87.50 -1.25
Sep-14 97.23 93.73 3.50 93.70 88.13 5.57 87.92 75.21 12.70 80.00 81.25 -1.25
Oct-14 85.93 82.45 3.48 85.40 78.85 6.55 78.24 71.44 6.79 70.75 72.00 -1.25
Nov-14 76.07 72.18 3.89 79.04 71.43 7.61 66.57 63.37 3.20 56.50 57.75 -1.25
Dec-14 60.13 56.65 3.48 59.74 52.52 7.22 52.46 42.72 9.74 46.75 48.00 -1.25
Jan-15 44.47 40.25 4.22 45.52 40.11 5.41 40.11 31.06 9.04 38.50 39.75 -1.25
Feb-15 53.78 51.07 2.71 52.68 47.31 5.37 44.58 37.01 7.58 40.00 41.25 -1.25
Mar-15 52.20 49.34 2.86 51.41 45.65 5.76 44.58 37.01 7.58 41.75 43.00 -1.25
Apr-15 57.73 54.33 3.40 59.10 52.59 6.51 50.79 40.34 10.45 47.50 48.75 -1.25
May-15 62.62 59.45 3.17 63.78 57.90 5.88 57.96 47.93 10.03 50.00 51.25 -1.25
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -40.8% -42.1% -37.8% -39.0% -39.2% -42.4% -47.1% -46.5%
Spot Prices Differentials
WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket
2012 94.12 111.68 109.02 110.85 109.19 -16.82 -14.16 -15.99 -14.33
2013 98.03 108.68 105.44 108.39 105.94 -11.87 -8.63 -11.58 -9.12
2014 93.28 98.94 96.52 97.97 96.19 -2.41 0.01 -1.44 0.34
1Q 2014 98.65 108.17 104.43 107.41 104.75 -6.84 -3.10 -6.08 -3.41
2Q 2014 103.06 109.66 106.16 108.19 105.87 -7.08 -3.58 -5.61 -3.28
3Q 2014 97.59 101.91 101.47 100.92 100.78 -18.61 -18.17 -17.62 -17.48
4Q 2014 73.62 76.61 74.13 75.94 73.36 -25.53 -23.05 -24.86 -22.28
1Q 2015 48.49 53.96 51.72 52.93 50.30 -0.64 1.60 0.39 3.02
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -50.8% -50.1% -50.5% -50.7% -52.0%
May-14 101.86 109.60 105.67 107.96 105.44 -7.16 -3.23 -5.52 -3.00
Jun-14 105.24 111.67 108.06 109.50 107.89 -4.41 -0.80 -2.24 -0.63
Jul-14 102.92 106.63 106.12 105.51 105.61 -2.21 -1.70 -1.09 -1.19
Aug-14 96.38 101.56 101.76 101.43 100.75 -5.49 -5.69 -5.36 -4.68
Sep-14 93.21 97.29 96.55 95.65 95.98 -5.77 -5.03 -4.13 -4.46
Oct-14 84.40 87.42 86.53 86.68 85.06 -4.61 -3.72 -3.87 -2.25
Nov-14 76.34 78.94 76.40 78.92 75.57 -3.36 -0.82 -3.34 0.01
Dec-14 59.47 62.57 60.22 61.34 59.46 -6.05 -3.70 -4.82 -2.94
Jan-15 47.27 47.84 45.62 46.48 44.38 -1.45 0.77 -0.09 2.01
Feb-15 50.61 58.09 55.42 57.61 54.06 -7.75 -5.08 -7.27 -3.72
Mar-15 47.79 56.05 54.53 54.82 52.46 -10.33 -8.81 -9.10 -6.74
Apr-15 54.46 59.79 58.37 59.44 57.30 -4.53 -3.11 -4.18 -2.04
May-15 59.27 64.35 63.58 63.67 62.16 -5.37 -4.60 -4.69 -3.18
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -41.8% -41.3% -39.8% -41.0% -41.0%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 13
A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)
A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)
Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status
Report.
Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes
Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3
2012 120.03 99.32 114.82 122.89 128.03 97.65 123.44 128.08 103.94
2013 114.66 92.96 122.77 116.69 123.40 91.47 118.98 123.24 96.39
2014 106.68 82.82 113.25 108.16 112.63 81.04 110.75 112.53 87.22
1Q 2014 111.36 89.30 122.70 112.48 122.36 87.53 118.97 122.25 94.97
2Q 2014 121.73 91.80 120.88 121.39 121.80 89.59 122.15 122.16 94.05
3Q 2014 115.08 87.61 117.49 114.96 115.68 86.31 114.70 115.88 92.22
4Q 2014 78.12 62.38 91.93 84.41 91.21 61.15 87.39 90.04 67.69
1Q 2015 63.89 44.30 68.11 63.79 69.16 40.74 67.08 68.08 48.30
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -42.6% -50.4% -44.5% -43.3% -43.5% -53.5% -43.6% -44.3% -49.1%
May-14 118.98 91.61 120.35 119.57 121.79 88.84 121.42 122.31 93.69
Jun-14 123.87 93.10 120.96 123.87 122.14 90.99 123.72 121.25 95.92
Jul-14 119.70 89.05 118.48 120.46 119.14 88.38 121.96 118.97 94.13
Aug-14 115.60 87.79 119.43 112.83 116.36 86.61 111.35 116.73 92.60
Sep-14 109.71 85.90 114.56 111.13 111.44 83.86 110.62 111.97 89.94
Oct-14 91.18 73.17 103.36 97.03 100.98 72.85 100.80 100.23 78.06
Nov-14 81.99 64.32 96.97 89.01 94.94 63.00 90.56 93.87 70.99
Dec-14 60.49 48.91 75.47 66.20 76.95 46.58 71.71 76.84 54.80
Jan-15 53.61 38.53 63.07 54.20 63.06 34.64 57.24 62.64 42.94
Feb-15 67.30 48.61 72.93 66.10 74.34 44.45 70.33 71.19 52.69
Mar-15 70.31 45.84 68.32 70.86 70.27 43.18 73.82 70.73 49.83
Apr-15 76.63 48.56 71.50 75.57 73.77 47.19 75.56 72.38 52.92
May-15 83.36 52.41 77.67 80.72 79.43 51.12 83.68 78.05 58.72
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -29.9% -42.8% -35.5% -32.5% -34.8% -42.5% -31.1% -36.2% -37.3%
NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles
Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill.
2012 293.97 302.38 311.33 281.37 305.65 305.29 303.06 310.61
2013 281.29 292.59 301.40 269.60 292.34 296.78 292.19 301.28
2014 261.23 269.64 280.48 248.81 269.65 271.08 266.81 278.58
1Q 2014 274.00 301.20 311.23 265.23 292.53 293.43 279.70 294.93
2Q 2014 288.47 287.67 295.20 280.40 287.97 291.90 310.70 300.67
3Q 2014 274.27 272.07 282.30 264.97 279.50 279.07 281.17 289.33
4Q 2014 208.20 217.63 233.20 184.63 218.60 219.93 195.67 229.37
1Q 2015 153.83 170.70 184.17 151.73 163.03 168.87 175.33 174.50
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -43.9% -43.3% -40.8% -42.8% -44.3% -42.5% -37.3% -40.8%
May-14 286.20 286.00 293.60 276.20 286.80 290.40 303.60 301.60
Jun-14 289.60 288.20 296.20 284.90 288.30 292.10 311.60 300.60
Jul-14 280.20 277.60 287.90 271.30 281.70 284.20 290.80 293.50
Aug-14 270.50 275.30 285.00 263.10 283.90 282.10 280.80 294.90
Sep-14 272.10 263.30 274.00 260.50 272.90 270.90 271.90 279.60
Oct-14 239.80 242.40 253.20 217.90 246.00 250.00 233.80 257.70
Nov-14 216.50 224.90 243.00 193.70 229.70 231.40 202.40 240.80
Dec-14 168.30 185.60 203.40 142.30 180.10 178.40 150.80 189.60
Jan-15 136.40 161.60 167.80 127.10 149.60 153.10 130.10 155.90
Feb-15 160.70 187.30 199.10 160.30 176.60 182.40 194.20 195.10
Mar-15 164.40 163.20 185.60 167.80 162.90 171.10 201.70 172.50
Apr-15 179.30 172.20 184.30 173.40 170.20 177.60 215.40 181.20
May-15 193.80 183.20 196.50 188.40 184.90 191.70 247.20 204.00
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -32.3% -35.9% -33.1% -31.8% -35.5% -34.0% -18.6% -32.4%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 14
B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on
historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and loss-
es. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes
crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.
Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3
Demand
2010 24.1 14.7 8.2 47.0 18.5 11.3 4.1 33.9 4.7 2.8 7.5 88.5
2011 24.0 14.3 8.2 46.4 19.3 11.4 4.6 35.3 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.5
2012 23.6 13.8 8.5 45.9 20.0 11.8 4.6 36.4 5.1 3.0 8.2 90.6
2013 24.1 13.7 8.3 46.1 20.5 11.9 4.8 37.2 5.3 3.1 8.5 91.9
2014 24.0 13.5 8.1 45.6 21.0 12.1 4.9 38.0 5.5 3.2 8.9 92.6
1Q 2013 23.8 13.2 8.9 45.9 20.4 11.4 4.5 36.3 5.3 3.1 8.5 90.7
2Q 2013 23.9 13.9 7.8 45.6 20.6 12.0 4.7 37.3 5.3 3.1 8.5 91.4
3Q 2013 24.3 14.0 8.0 46.4 20.4 12.5 4.9 37.8 5.3 3.1 8.5 92.6
4Q 2013 24.3 13.6 8.6 46.6 20.9 12.0 5.0 37.9 5.3 3.1 8.5 93.0
1Q 2014 23.9 13.0 8.9 45.7 20.9 11.5 4.6 37.0 5.5 3.2 8.9 91.7
2Q 2014 23.6 13.4 7.7 44.7 21.0 12.2 4.8 38.0 5.5 3.2 8.9 91.6
3Q 2014 24.2 13.9 7.7 45.8 20.7 12.6 5.1 38.4 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.1
4Q 2014 24.5 13.6 8.3 46.3 21.6 12.1 5.0 38.7 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.8
1Q 2015 24.2 13.6 8.7 46.5 21.5 11.6 4.6 37.7 5.8 3.4 9.2 93.5
Supply
2010 14.1 4.1 0.7 20.1 7.8 8.5 13.6 30.8 23.3 10.7 34.6 87.4
2011 14.6 3.8 0.6 20.1 7.7 8.5 13.6 30.7 25.7 9.6 35.8 88.6
2012 15.8 3.5 0.6 21.0 7.8 8.1 13.6 30.4 26.2 10.6 37.6 90.8
2013 17.1 3.3 0.5 22.1 7.8 8.0 13.8 30.6 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.4
2014 19.0 3.3 0.5 24.0 7.7 8.1 13.9 30.7 26.8 9.2 36.7 93.7
1Q 2013 16.7 3.4 0.4 21.8 7.9 7.9 13.8 30.6 25.6 10.3 36.8 90.4
2Q 2013 16.6 3.3 0.5 21.7 7.8 7.8 13.7 30.3 26.1 10.3 37.3 91.3
3Q 2013 17.4 3.2 0.5 22.3 7.5 8.0 13.7 30.2 26.8 9.5 37.1 91.8
4Q 2013 17.8 3.4 0.5 22.8 7.7 8.0 14.0 30.7 26.4 9.0 36.1 91.9
1Q 2014 18.2 3.5 0.5 23.4 7.7 8.0 13.9 30.6 26.7 9.0 36.3 92.2
2Q 2014 18.8 3.2 0.5 23.8 7.7 8.0 13.8 30.5 26.8 9.0 36.4 93.0
3Q 2014 19.1 3.1 0.5 24.0 7.6 8.2 13.8 30.6 26.9 9.3 37.0 94.1
4Q 2014 19.7 3.5 0.5 24.9 7.9 8.3 13.9 31.1 26.8 9.4 37.0 95.3
1Q 2015 19.9 3.4 0.4 25.0 8.0 8.4 14.0 31.4 27.3 8.8 37.0 95.3
Balance
2010 -10.0 -10.6 -7.5 -26.9 -10.7 -2.8 9.5 -3.1 18.5 8.0 27.1 -1.1
2011 -9.4 -10.5 -7.6 -26.3 -11.6 -2.9 9.0 -4.6 20.8 6.7 28.0 -0.9
2012 -7.8 -10.3 -7.9 -24.9 -12.2 -3.7 9.0 -6.0 21.1 7.6 29.4 0.2
2013 -7.0 -10.4 -7.8 -24.0 -12.7 -3.9 9.0 -6.6 20.9 6.7 28.2 -0.5
2014 -5.0 -10.2 -7.6 -21.6 -13.3 -4.0 9.0 -7.3 21.3 5.9 27.8 1.1
1Q 2013 -7.1 -9.8 -8.5 -24.1 -12.5 -3.5 9.3 -5.7 20.3 7.2 28.3 -0.3
2Q 2013 -7.3 -10.6 -7.3 -23.9 -12.8 -4.2 9.0 -7.0 20.8 7.2 28.7 -0.1
3Q 2013 -6.9 -10.8 -7.5 -24.1 -12.9 -4.5 8.8 -7.6 21.5 6.4 28.5 -0.8
4Q 2013 -6.5 -10.2 -8.1 -23.8 -13.2 -4.0 9.0 -7.2 21.1 5.8 27.6 -1.1
1Q 2014 -5.7 -9.5 -8.4 -22.3 -13.2 -3.5 9.3 -6.4 21.2 5.8 27.4 0.5
2Q 2014 -4.8 -10.2 -7.2 -20.9 -13.3 -4.2 9.0 -7.5 21.3 5.7 27.6 1.4
3Q 2014 -5.1 -10.8 -7.2 -21.8 -13.1 -4.4 8.7 -7.8 21.3 6.1 28.1 1.0
4Q 2014 -4.8 -10.1 -7.8 -21.4 -13.7 -3.8 8.9 -7.6 21.3 6.1 28.1 1.5
1Q 2015 -4.3 -10.2 -8.3 -21.5 -13.5 -3.2 9.4 -6.3 21.5 5.5 27.8 1.8
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 15
B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)
B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve
estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All
stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2012 15.85 3.45 0.56 19.87 7.82 8.05 13.66 29.52 26.21 10.56 37.55 86.94
2013 17.14 3.32 0.48 20.94 7.73 7.97 13.80 29.50 26.18 9.80 36.72 87.16
2014 18.96 3.33 0.51 22.80 7.75 8.19 13.87 29.80 26.79 9.17 36.67 89.27
1Q 2014 18.15 3.50 0.49 22.14 7.70 8.09 14.00 29.78 26.70 9.02 36.31 88.23
2Q 2014 18.62 3.25 0.49 22.37 7.66 8.05 13.84 29.56 26.81 8.95 36.44 88.37
3Q 2014 18.99 3.13 0.52 22.64 7.54 8.18 13.81 29.53 26.88 9.34 36.98 89.15
4Q 2014 19.69 3.46 0.50 23.66 7.86 8.38 13.93 30.18 26.80 9.36 36.97 90.81
1Q 2015 19.94 3.44 0.43 23.81 7.98 8.43 14.05 30.47 27.29 8.83 37.00 91.28
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.9% -1.7% -12.2% 7.5% 3.6% 4.2% 0.4% 2.3% 2.2% -2.0% 1.9% 3.5%
May-14 18.37 3.19 0.52 22.08 7.73 8.12 13.83 29.68 26.86 9.05 36.45 88.21
Jun-14 18.90 3.12 0.52 22.55 7.77 8.22 13.77 29.75 26.85 8.96 36.47 88.77
Jul-14 18.60 3.26 0.50 22.36 7.52 8.14 13.70 29.35 27.00 9.15 36.90 88.61
Aug-14 18.81 3.05 0.50 22.37 7.52 8.18 13.86 29.55 26.73 9.29 36.80 88.72
Sep-14 18.94 3.15 0.52 22.61 7.61 8.24 13.89 29.75 26.89 9.56 37.23 89.59
Oct-14 19.20 3.41 0.51 23.12 7.51 8.27 13.90 29.69 26.68 9.62 37.13 89.94
Nov-14 19.09 3.41 0.49 23.00 7.64 8.23 13.86 29.73 26.67 9.40 36.84 89.57
Dec-14 19.65 3.46 0.51 23.63 7.52 8.20 14.02 29.75 27.18 9.02 37.01 90.39
Jan-15 19.37 3.50 0.47 23.33 7.72 8.29 13.99 30.01 27.04 8.88 36.80 90.14
Feb-15 19.83 3.37 0.47 23.68 7.95 8.42 14.06 30.44 26.98 8.72 36.61 90.73
Mar-15 20.11 3.48 0.37 23.96 8.01 8.41 14.06 30.48 27.82 8.89 37.55 91.99
Apr-15 19.81 3.49 0.44 23.74 7.99 8.27 14.06 30.33 28.04 9.09 37.90 91.97
May-15 19.49 3.32 0.50 23.31 7.94 8.17 14.04 30.16 28.17 8.96 37.95 91.42
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.1% 4.1% -3.8% 5.6% 2.7% 0.6% 1.5% 1.6% 4.9% -1.0% 4.1% 3.6%
R/P Ratio2 30.6 11.5 21.9 27.7 11.5 22.4 24.8 20.6 76.2 121.4 85.2 49.5
North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD
Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2
2012 501 704 1,362 307 539 906 159 170 397 967 1,413 2,665
2013 500 670 1,315 307 497 869 145 170 382 952 1,337 2,566
2014 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712
1Q 2014 523 638 1,311 311 493 873 170 161 399 1,003 1,292 2,582
2Q 2014 530 685 1,382 316 490 878 165 157 392 1,012 1,332 2,652
3Q 2014 512 720 1,411 305 512 887 164 183 422 981 1,415 2,720
4Q 2014 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712
1Q 2015 627 692 1,481 339 522 931 155 153 368 1,120 1,366 2,780
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.9% 8.5% 13.0% 9.1% 5.8% 6.7% -8.9% -5.2% -7.7% 11.7% 5.8% 7.7%
Apr-14 533 654 1,346 310 495 870 157 157 381 1,000 1,306 2,598
May-14 539 674 1,377 319 503 890 161 164 396 1,018 1,341 2,662
Jun-14 530 685 1,382 316 490 878 165 157 392 1,012 1,332 2,652
Jul-14 519 703 1,395 309 494 871 163 166 399 992 1,362 2,665
Aug-14 511 713 1,401 302 517 890 167 180 418 980 1,410 2,709
Sep-14 512 720 1,411 305 512 887 164 183 422 981 1,415 2,720
Oct-14 538 689 1,409 304 500 875 169 180 418 1,011 1,368 2,703
Nov-14 544 706 1,424 298 509 877 156 182 406 998 1,397 2,707
Dec-14 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712
Jan-15 576 714 1,456 305 528 895 153 167 384 1,035 1,409 2,736
Feb-15 601 689 1,450 314 524 904 157 158 376 1,071 1,370 2,730
Mar-15 627 692 1,481 339 522 931 155 153 368 1,120 1,366 2,780
Apr-15 637 715 1,516 340 523 931 153 156 371 1,129 1,393 2,818
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.5% 9.3% 12.6% 9.5% 5.5% 7.0% -2.5% -0.9% -2.7% 12.9% 6.6% 8.5%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 16
B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. 3. OPEC-10 production targets. 4. As
of latest month. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)
Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on
spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-11 OPEC-11
Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Venez. Nigeria Libya Algeria Angola Ecuador Total1 Target Iraq2
2012 9.78 3.00 2.65 2.73 0.74 2.50 2.10 1.39 1.17 1.78 0.50 28.35 30.00 2.95
2013 9.66 2.68 2.76 2.81 0.73 2.50 1.95 0.90 1.15 1.72 0.52 27.38 30.00 3.08
2014 9.72 2.81 2.76 2.80 0.71 2.46 1.90 0.46 1.12 1.66 0.55 26.95 30.00 3.33
1Q 2014 9.72 2.81 2.73 2.79 0.72 2.45 1.93 0.37 1.07 1.57 0.55 26.70 30.00 3.29
2Q 2014 9.72 2.84 2.74 2.80 0.71 2.48 1.91 0.23 1.14 1.63 0.55 26.75 30.00 3.33
3Q 2014 9.81 2.79 2.81 2.84 0.72 2.48 1.89 0.57 1.15 1.71 0.56 27.31 30.00 3.22
4Q 2014 9.64 2.80 2.75 2.78 0.68 2.44 1.88 0.67 1.13 1.72 0.55 27.03 30.00 3.48
1Q 2015 9.87 2.82 2.84 2.80 0.67 2.39 1.81 0.37 1.11 1.77 0.55 27.00 30.00 3.49
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.5% 0.4% 4.0% 0.4% -6.9% -2.4% -6.2% 0.0% 3.7% 12.7% 0.0% 1.1% 6.1%
May-14 9.71 2.80 2.75 2.78 0.70 2.50 1.90 0.22 1.12 1.62 0.56 26.65 30.00 3.42
Jun-14 9.78 2.80 2.83 2.78 0.73 2.48 1.91 0.24 1.14 1.65 0.56 26.87 30.00 3.26
Jul-14 10.01 2.76 2.83 2.80 0.73 2.48 1.85 0.42 1.16 1.73 0.56 27.31 30.00 3.15
Aug-14 9.68 2.80 2.82 2.86 0.73 2.48 1.88 0.53 1.15 1.71 0.56 27.17 30.00 3.14
Sep-14 9.73 2.78 2.78 2.87 0.69 2.48 1.89 0.78 1.13 1.72 0.56 27.39 30.00 3.36
Oct-14 9.68 2.76 2.74 2.82 0.69 2.46 1.88 0.87 1.13 1.75 0.54 27.31 30.00 3.32
Nov-14 9.61 2.81 2.74 2.76 0.68 2.44 1.89 0.69 1.13 1.69 0.55 26.99 30.00 3.39
Dec-14 9.62 2.84 2.80 2.77 0.67 2.42 1.86 0.44 1.12 1.73 0.55 26.82 30.00 3.73
Jan-15 9.69 2.82 2.84 2.80 0.67 2.40 1.87 0.34 1.10 1.77 0.56 26.85 30.00 3.44
Feb-15 9.71 2.84 2.84 2.80 0.67 2.38 1.83 0.29 1.10 1.79 0.53 26.78 30.00 3.32
Mar-15 10.19 2.79 2.84 2.80 0.68 2.40 1.74 0.48 1.12 1.75 0.55 27.34 30.00 3.70
Apr-15 10.17 2.88 2.87 2.81 0.67 2.44 1.80 0.52 1.11 1.73 0.55 27.53 30.00 3.75
May-15 10.26 2.85 2.87 2.77 0.67 2.44 1.76 0.45 1.11 1.77 0.55 27.48 30.00 3.85
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.6% 1.8% 4.4% -0.5% -4.3% -2.4% -7.4% 104.5% -0.9% 9.3% -1.8% 3.1% 12.6%
Quotas3 8.05 3.34 2.22 2.22 0.73 1.99 1.67 1.47 1.20 1.52 0.43 30.00
Over/Under4 27.4% -14.7% 29.3% 24.5% -8.2% 22.6% 5.4% -69.4% -7.5% 16.4% 27.9% -8.4%
Persian Gulf
North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD
Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.
2012 18.1 86.3 1.72 12.1 79.5 5.80 6.8 75.8 -0.65 37.0 81.9
2013 18.4 87.7 1.40 11.5 75.2 3.48 6.7 75.1 -1.63 36.6 81.0
2014 18.9 90.0 1.67 11.4 75.0 3.35 6.5 73.2 -1.98 36.8 81.6
1Q 2014 18.3 87.1 0.43 11.1 73.1 1.24 6.9 77.0 -1.8 36.3 80.4
2Q 2014 19.0 90.4 4.28 11.1 72.9 2.65 6.1 68.2 -3.3 36.2 80.1
3Q 2014 19.4 92.4 2.99 11.7 76.6 4.79 6.6 73.6 -2.7 37.6 83.4
4Q 2014 18.9 90.0 -1.03 11.8 77.4 4.72 6.6 74.1 -0.1 37.3 82.6
1Q 2015 18.5 88.2 5.93 12.0 78.4 7.03 7.1 78.8 2.6 37.5 83.0
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.2% 1268.5% 7.4% 465.7% 2.5% -242.1% 3.4%
Apr-14 18.9 89.9 7.25 11.3 73.9 4.49 6.4 72.1 -2.4 36.6 81.0
May-14 19.0 90.4 5.08 11.3 73.8 1.72 6.0 67.4 -3.1 36.2 80.3
Jun-14 19.1 90.9 0.51 10.8 70.9 1.75 5.8 65.0 -4.3 35.7 79.1
Jul-14 19.6 93.7 0.51 11.5 75.4 3.96 6.5 72.2 -4.3 37.6 83.2
Aug-14 19.6 93.2 3.86 12.0 78.4 4.55 6.8 75.5 -3.1 38.3 84.7
Sep-14 19.0 90.4 4.59 11.6 76.0 5.86 6.5 73.1 -0.7 37.1 82.1
Oct-14 18.2 86.6 0.19 11.8 77.6 4.56 6.3 69.9 -2.0 36.2 80.3
Nov-14 19.0 90.5 -0.87 11.9 77.9 5.93 6.7 74.7 1.0 37.5 83.1
Dec-14 19.5 92.8 -2.42 11.7 76.8 3.68 7.0 77.7 0.6 38.1 84.4
Jan-15 18.5 88.1 2.80 11.9 77.9 5.75 7.1 79.7 2.7 37.5 83.0
Feb-15 18.4 87.6 8.01 12.2 79.9 6.60 7.2 80.0 2.6 37.7 83.5
Mar-15 18.6 88.8 6.98 11.8 77.5 8.75 6.9 76.8 2.5 37.3 82.6
Apr-15 18.9 90.2 4.55 12.0 78.6 7.71 6.7 75.1 0.5 37.6 83.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.3% -37.2% 6.4% 72% 4.3% -121.3% 2.9%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 17
C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock chang-
es in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-
conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
United States1 East Mid-West
Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2012 10.82 18.54 7.41 0.15 0.15 5.16 -5.02 2.57 4.79 -2.21
2013 12.11 18.89 6.20 -0.13 0.19 5.23 -5.04 2.90 4.88 -1.97
2014 13.67 19.03 5.04 0.26 0.31 5.45 -5.14 3.35 4.91 -1.56
1Q 2014 12.84 18.81 5.39 -0.07 0.26 5.67 -5.41 3.06 4.76 -1.70
2Q 2014 13.51 18.71 5.18 0.66 0.28 5.26 -4.98 3.28 4.79 -1.51
3Q 2014 13.93 19.16 4.99 0.23 0.33 5.34 -5.00 3.48 4.98 -1.49
4Q 2014 14.38 19.45 4.62 0.24 0.37 5.55 -5.18 3.55 5.10 -1.55
1Q 2015 14.45 19.29 4.93 0.56 0.36 5.81 -5.45 3.56 4.99 -1.43
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.5% 2.6% -8.4% 40.5% 2.4% 16.1% 4.8%
Mar-14 13.02 18.53 5.38 0.32 0.28 5.47 -5.19 3.09 4.72 -1.64
Apr-14 13.42 18.78 5.62 0.91 0.28 5.30 -5.02 3.18 4.68 -1.51
May-14 13.32 18.52 5.26 0.94 0.29 5.28 -4.99 3.24 4.82 -1.58
Jun-14 13.79 18.83 4.66 0.15 0.29 5.21 -4.91 3.41 4.87 -1.46
Jul-14 13.80 19.16 4.99 0.13 0.31 5.48 -5.17 3.46 4.98 -1.52
Aug-14 13.93 19.28 4.78 0.13 0.34 5.33 -4.99 3.46 4.94 -1.48
Sep-14 14.05 19.04 5.19 0.45 0.35 5.21 -4.85 3.53 5.02 -1.49
Oct-14 14.23 19.63 4.79 -0.16 0.37 5.64 -5.28 3.51 5.19 -1.68
Nov-14 14.33 19.21 4.60 0.39 0.36 5.44 -5.08 3.51 5.07 -1.56
Dec-14 14.59 19.52 4.48 0.47 0.38 5.56 -5.18 3.65 5.05 -1.40
Jan-15 14.24 19.25 4.83 0.57 0.36 5.64 -5.28 3.54 4.91 -1.37
Feb-15 14.34 19.40 4.54 0.13 0.33 5.99 -5.65 3.54 5.08 -1.54
Mar-15 14.76 19.24 5.43 0.99 0.39 5.79 -5.40 3.59 4.97 -1.38
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 13.4% 3.8% 0.9% 39.9% 5.8% 16.4% 5.3%
% of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 2.6% 30.1% 24.3% 25.9%
South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products
Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2012 5.88 5.16 0.73 0.85 0.69 0.16 1.36 2.75 -1.39
2013 6.77 5.28 1.49 0.87 0.71 0.16 1.37 2.79 -1.42
2014 7.65 5.16 2.50 0.98 0.71 0.27 1.38 2.81 -1.43
1Q 2014 7.21 5.01 2.20 0.91 0.68 0.23 1.40 2.69 -1.29
2Q 2014 7.59 5.07 2.51 0.97 0.72 0.26 1.39 2.87 -1.48
3Q 2014 7.80 5.24 2.56 1.00 0.72 0.28 1.31 2.89 -1.58
4Q 2014 8.01 5.31 2.70 1.03 0.71 0.32 1.42 2.78 -1.36
1Q 2015 8.08 5.02 3.06 1.08 0.70 0.38 1.37 2.78 -1.41
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.1% 0.2% 18.7% 3.0% -2.3% 3.3%
Mar-14 7.34 4.93 2.41 0.94 0.69 0.25 1.38 2.72 -1.34
Apr-14 7.60 5.20 2.39 0.97 0.71 0.26 1.40 2.89 -1.49
May-14 7.46 4.95 2.51 0.94 0.67 0.26 1.40 2.80 -1.41
Jun-14 7.71 5.07 2.64 1.01 0.76 0.24 1.37 2.92 -1.55
Jul-14 7.74 5.09 2.65 1.00 0.70 0.30 1.29 2.92 -1.63
Aug-14 7.88 5.35 2.53 0.99 0.74 0.26 1.26 2.93 -1.67
Sep-14 7.78 5.27 2.51 1.00 0.71 0.29 1.38 2.83 -1.45
Oct-14 7.93 5.19 2.74 1.02 0.73 0.29 1.41 2.88 -1.47
Nov-14 8.01 5.35 2.65 1.02 0.66 0.36 1.43 2.68 -1.25
Dec-14 8.11 5.39 2.72 1.04 0.74 0.30 1.42 2.78 -1.36
Jan-15 7.96 5.28 2.68 1.03 0.72 0.30 1.35 2.69 -1.33
Feb-15 8.03 4.78 3.24 1.08 0.73 0.35 1.36 2.82 -1.46
Mar-15 8.27 5.00 3.27 1.14 0.66 0.48 1.38 2.82 -1.44
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.6% 1.4% 21.8% -3.9% 0.2% 3.8%
% of Total2 56.0% 26.0% 7.7% 3.4% 9.4% 14.7%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 18
C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic
Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply
Monthly.
Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum
Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2012 8.70 1.40 3.73 0.35 16.15 2.32 18.54
2013 8.77 1.42 3.84 0.32 16.32 2.45 18.89
2014 8.92 1.47 4.01 0.26 16.64 2.40 19.03
1Q 2014 8.53 1.39 4.17 0.23 16.07 2.66 18.81
2Q 2014 9.01 1.47 3.93 0.26 16.63 2.06 18.71
3Q 2014 9.09 1.51 3.86 0.24 16.96 2.26 19.16
4Q 2014 9.05 1.50 4.08 0.30 16.90 2.60 19.45
1Q 2015 8.81 1.45 4.27 0.24 16.62 2.72 19.29
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.3% 3.9% 2.6% 5.5% 3.4% 2.3% 2.6%
Mar-14 8.68 1.44 4.05 0.22 16.10 2.38 18.53
Apr-14 8.98 1.45 3.97 0.28 16.52 2.15 18.78
May-14 9.02 1.40 3.94 0.24 16.56 1.92 18.52
Jun-14 9.03 1.56 3.88 0.26 16.80 2.13 18.83
Jul-14 9.22 1.54 3.86 0.24 17.13 2.11 19.16
Aug-14 9.29 1.52 3.82 0.21 17.06 2.35 19.28
Sep-14 8.78 1.48 3.91 0.27 16.67 2.32 19.04
Oct-14 9.20 1.46 4.24 0.29 17.22 2.42 19.63
Nov-14 8.93 1.49 3.88 0.31 16.60 2.61 19.21
Dec-14 9.02 1.56 4.14 0.30 16.87 2.76 19.52
Jan-15 8.72 1.37 4.24 0.27 16.50 2.83 19.25
Feb-15 8.65 1.44 4.54 0.20 16.56 2.84 19.40
Mar-15 9.06 1.54 4.05 0.26 16.80 2.50 19.24
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.3% 6.9% 0.2% 20.8% 4.3% 4.9% 3.8%
Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3
2012 152 287 1,178 38 151 1,807 1,060 57 39 135 34 314
2013 151 269 1,162 39 139 1,760 1,054 40 37 127 38 291
2014 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287
1Q 2014 139 252 1,178 42 142 1,753 1,080 34 36 115 36 275
2Q 2014 156 265 1,213 39 139 1,814 1,075 29 36 122 37 274
3Q 2014 156 275 1,221 41 142 1,835 1,052 29 40 131 37 283
4Q 2014 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287
1Q 2015 152 316 1,247 44 150 1,908 1,166 27 37 128 38 288
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.4% 25.4% 5.8% 5.2% 5.3% 8.9% 8.0% -21.5% 3.3% 11.2% 4.8% 4.7%
Mar-14 139 252 1,178 42 142 1,753 1,080 34 36 115 36 275
Apr-14 142 254 1,200 41 143 1,780 1,086 31 38 117 36 275
May-14 154 258 1,210 41 145 1,809 1,085 31 39 122 38 282
Jun-14 156 265 1,213 39 139 1,814 1,075 29 36 122 37 274
Jul-14 154 263 1,223 39 139 1,818 1,060 28 35 126 36 275
Aug-14 154 268 1,224 40 136 1,822 1,052 28 36 128 38 276
Sep-14 156 275 1,221 41 142 1,835 1,052 29 40 131 37 283
Oct-14 149 269 1,232 40 141 1,830 1,073 27 36 120 37 265
Nov-14 148 274 1,237 42 141 1,842 1,078 30 36 126 36 274
Dec-14 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287
Jan-15 164 297 1,227 42 145 1,874 1,112 30 38 132 34 287
Feb-15 152 302 1,235 42 146 1,878 1,139 31 39 123 37 284
Mar-15 152 316 1,247 44 150 1,908 1,166 27 37 128 38 288
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.4% 25.4% 5.8% 5.2% 5.3% 8.9% 8.0% -21.5% 3.3% 11.2% 4.8% 4.7%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 19
C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA
Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude
oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
OPEC
Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf
2012 2.55 0.47 1.12 0.03 0.74 2.15 7.41 0.87 1.36 0.42 4.10 2.14
2013 2.59 0.39 0.74 -0.08 0.37 1.99 6.20 0.71 1.32 0.24 3.47 1.99
2014 2.58 0.29 0.56 -0.12 0.17 1.85 5.04 0.71 1.16 0.04 2.98 1.86
1Q 2014 2.58 0.39 0.54 -0.04 0.16 2.12 5.39 0.71 1.45 0.05 3.19 2.14
2Q 2014 2.47 0.29 0.52 -0.11 0.19 2.04 5.18 0.72 1.29 0.07 3.14 2.04
3Q 2014 2.57 0.26 0.59 -0.26 0.18 1.84 4.99 0.78 1.04 0.01 3.08 1.84
4Q 2014 2.72 0.21 0.59 -0.07 0.15 1.41 4.62 0.64 0.88 0.03 2.50 1.41
1Q 2015 2.97 0.16 0.65 -0.12 0.13 1.39 4.93 0.68 0.93 0.04 2.49 1.40
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.2% -59.2% 21.2% 221.1% -17.6% -34.4% -8.4% -4.0% -35.7% -28.4% -22.1% -34.6%
Mar-14 2.53 0.35 0.45 0.00 0.21 2.10 5.38 0.73 1.44 0.09 3.22 2.10
Apr-14 2.43 0.30 0.70 -0.13 0.23 2.27 5.62 0.79 1.61 0.15 3.49 2.27
May-14 2.59 0.26 0.51 -0.04 0.13 1.92 5.26 0.69 1.24 0.01 2.95 1.92
Jun-14 2.38 0.32 0.36 -0.16 0.21 1.92 4.66 0.67 1.02 0.06 2.98 1.92
Jul-14 2.39 0.17 0.63 -0.28 0.16 2.14 4.99 0.82 1.23 0.02 3.34 2.14
Aug-14 2.55 0.33 0.62 -0.35 0.13 1.76 4.78 0.76 0.89 -0.03 2.93 1.76
Sep-14 2.78 0.29 0.53 -0.16 0.24 1.62 5.19 0.74 1.00 0.04 2.97 1.62
Oct-14 2.64 0.23 0.56 -0.01 0.13 1.36 4.79 0.61 0.82 -0.01 2.36 1.37
Nov-14 2.51 0.26 0.81 -0.11 0.08 1.58 4.60 0.71 1.01 -0.01 2.67 1.58
Dec-14 3.01 0.13 0.38 -0.11 0.24 1.29 4.48 0.59 0.81 0.10 2.45 1.29
Jan-15 2.95 0.04 0.63 -0.12 0.12 1.32 4.83 0.60 0.82 0.04 2.36 1.33
Feb-15 2.93 0.09 0.51 -0.10 0.11 1.41 4.54 0.71 0.94 -0.01 2.55 1.42
Mar-15 3.03 0.34 0.82 -0.14 0.17 1.44 5.43 0.74 1.04 0.09 2.56 1.45
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.6% -2.6% 82.4% 6950.0% -22.5% -31.4% 0.9% 2.3% -27.9% 2.3% -20.4% -30.9%
% of Total3 55.8% 6.2% 15.1% -2.6% 3.0% 26.5% 100.0% 13.7% 19.2% 1.6% 47.2% 26.7%
Region of Origin
PAD District U.S. Major Producers
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2
2012 0.02 1.06 3.60 0.42 1.12 6.22 0.54 0.58 0.19 1.83 1.25
2013 0.03 1.34 4.33 0.50 1.11 7.31 0.52 0.59 0.20 2.47 1.28
2014 0.04 1.62 5.00 0.58 1.11 8.35 0.50 0.60 0.19 3.04 1.35
1Q 2014 0.03 1.52 4.78 0.54 1.17 8.05 0.55 0.62 0.20 2.91 1.27
2Q 2014 0.03 1.51 4.82 0.55 1.11 8.02 0.52 0.59 0.19 2.90 1.31
3Q 2014 0.04 1.67 5.08 0.61 1.08 8.48 0.48 0.60 0.19 3.07 1.39
4Q 2014 0.04 1.77 5.32 0.63 1.08 8.85 0.47 0.61 0.19 3.26 1.43
1Q 2015 0.05 1.86 5.65 0.68 1.14 9.38 0.53 0.62 0.19 3.52 1.46
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 37.0% 22.2% 18.1% 24.7% -2.5% 16.4% -5.0% -0.2% -6.7% 21.0% 15.1%
Mar-14 0.03 1.49 4.73 0.54 1.14 7.94 0.54 0.60 0.19 2.87 1.26
Apr-14 0.03 1.40 4.50 0.52 1.05 7.50 0.48 0.57 0.19 2.73 1.20
May-14 0.04 1.54 4.92 0.56 1.13 8.19 0.53 0.60 0.20 2.97 1.33
Jun-14 0.04 1.59 5.04 0.58 1.14 8.38 0.54 0.60 0.19 3.01 1.40
Jul-14 0.04 1.64 4.97 0.58 1.13 8.36 0.52 0.60 0.19 3.02 1.33
Aug-14 0.04 1.61 4.95 0.60 1.05 8.26 0.47 0.58 0.19 2.97 1.38
Sep-14 0.04 1.75 5.31 0.65 1.06 8.82 0.44 0.62 0.20 3.21 1.45
Oct-14 0.04 1.73 5.26 0.61 1.01 8.65 0.40 0.61 0.19 3.18 1.44
Nov-14 0.04 1.80 5.30 0.63 1.09 8.86 0.48 0.61 0.19 3.25 1.42
Dec-14 0.04 1.80 5.41 0.65 1.15 9.05 0.54 0.61 0.19 3.36 1.42
Jan-15 0.04 1.72 5.25 0.62 1.09 8.73 0.50 0.59 0.18 3.29 1.34
Feb-15 0.05 2.03 6.15 0.74 1.25 10.21 0.58 0.67 0.20 3.82 1.60
Mar-15 0.05 1.82 5.55 0.68 1.09 9.19 0.50 0.58 0.18 3.46 1.44
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 51.6% 21.9% 17.5% 24.2% -4.7% 15.7% -6.8% -2.8% -7.0% 20.4% 14.2%
R/P Ratio3 8.7 8.5 8.9 11.3 16.7 10.0 18.2 15.5 8.9 8.8 9.4
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 20
C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)
Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)
Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite.
Source: Oil and Gas Journal.
East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S.
Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util.
2012 1.04 87.9 3.47 94.6 8.14 93.7 0.58 93.6 2.66 89.3 15.89 92.7
2013 1.10 85.1 3.42 90.7 8.22 90.4 0.58 92.7 2.56 84.8 15.88 89.2
2014 1.09 84.2 3.52 92.5 8.38 91.5 0.58 90.5 2.57 87.0 16.14 90.4
1Q 2014 0.99 76.1 3.41 89.5 7.99 87.2 0.55 86.4 2.58 85.0 15.51 86.5
2Q 2014 1.13 87.1 3.58 93.8 8.35 91.2 0.57 89.3 2.54 85.0 16.17 90.4
3Q 2014 1.13 87.0 3.62 95.0 8.68 94.9 0.61 94.6 2.59 89.0 16.63 93.4
4Q 2014 1.11 86.6 3.48 91.5 8.49 92.6 0.59 91.5 2.59 89.0 16.25 91.3
1Q 2015 1.14 90.9 3.60 93.8 8.54 93.2 0.60 92.6 2.63 91.5 16.51 92.9
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 16.0% 5.3% 7.0% 9.3% 2.0% 6.4%
Mar-14 1.01 78.2 3.22 84.4 7.99 87.3 0.56 88.4 2.59 85.4 15.38 85.8
Apr-14 1.07 82.8 3.48 91.2 8.52 93.0 0.56 87.8 2.63 86.7 16.25 90.6
May-14 1.15 88.5 3.59 94.1 8.32 90.9 0.59 92.8 2.53 83.4 16.18 90.2
Jun-14 1.17 89.9 3.66 96.1 8.22 89.8 0.56 87.4 2.47 84.8 16.07 90.3
Jul-14 1.14 87.5 3.72 97.6 8.79 96.0 0.57 88.1 2.64 90.9 16.86 94.6
Aug-14 1.09 84.3 3.58 93.9 8.78 95.9 0.64 98.9 2.59 89.2 16.68 93.7
Sep-14 1.16 89.1 3.57 93.6 8.48 92.6 0.63 96.8 2.53 87.0 16.36 91.8
Oct-14 1.13 87.2 3.28 86.1 8.13 88.7 0.56 86.4 2.54 87.4 15.64 87.7
Nov-14 1.11 87.5 3.47 91.4 8.60 93.8 0.61 94.4 2.58 88.6 16.37 92.0
Dec-14 1.08 85.1 3.69 97.1 8.74 95.2 0.61 93.7 2.64 90.8 16.75 94.2
Jan-15 1.09 85.5 3.43 88.8 8.20 89.1 0.58 90.0 2.51 86.1 15.81 88.4
Feb-15 1.27 102.6 3.84 101.1 9.20 101.1 0.65 100.6 2.92 104.5 17.87 101.7
Mar-15 1.08 85.0 3.52 91.5 8.24 89.6 0.56 87.2 2.46 84.4 15.86 88.7
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.4% 9.4% 3.1% 0.2% -5.0% 3.1%
% of Total1 6.8% 22.2% 51.9% 3.6% 15.5% 100.0%
NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles
(East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS)
2012 11.87 26.89 14.78 11.65
2013 9.20 21.63 12.83 10.25
2014 8.62 16.57 11.76 8.68
1Q 2014 6.47 16.53 11.68 6.33
2Q 2014 8.85 18.85 15.02 13.18
3Q 2014 9.30 17.07 13.06 10.22
4Q 2014 9.85 13.81 7.28 5.02
1Q 2015 12.42 15.57 14.05 15.73
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 92.0% -5.8% 20.3% 148.7%
May-14 8.04 18.41 14.55 12.15
Jun-14 7.70 19.13 13.50 11.20
Jul-14 6.78 12.98 11.20 7.23
Aug-14 10.08 18.41 13.87 11.56
Sep-14 11.05 19.82 14.10 11.86
Oct-14 7.62 17.35 9.48 6.81
Nov-14 11.10 17.47 8.36 6.10
Dec-14 10.82 6.61 4.01 2.14
Jan-15 10.14 6.45 10.11 3.71
Feb-15 13.35 17.85 15.52 21.14
Mar-15 13.76 22.41 16.51 22.35
Apr-15 18.95 16.73 14.22 20.81
May-15 19.25 19.22 14.80 29.98
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 139.4% 4.4% 1.7% 146.7%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 21
D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)
D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Canada East West
Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2012 3.77 1.72 2.06 0.01 0.26 1.05 -0.80 3.51 0.67 2.84
2013 4.04 1.65 2.40 0.01 0.28 0.98 -0.70 3.76 0.66 3.09
2014 4.35 1.56 2.80 0.02 0.27 0.93 -0.67 4.08 0.63 3.45
1Q 2014 4.38 1.66 2.74 0.02 0.34 0.98 -0.64 4.04 0.67 3.36
2Q 2014 4.30 1.48 2.76 -0.06 0.31 0.89 -0.58 3.98 0.59 3.39
3Q 2014 4.36 1.53 2.85 0.02 0.28 0.90 -0.63 4.09 0.63 3.46
4Q 2014 4.54 1.58 3.05 0.08 0.31 0.95 -0.64 4.24 0.63 3.61
1Q 2015 4.65 1.69 2.92 -0.04 0.30 1.03 -0.73 4.35 0.66 3.69
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.3% 2.0% 6.7% -11.4% 5.0% 7.8% -2.5%
Mar-14 4.46 1.56 2.87 -0.02 0.35 0.93 -0.58 4.11 0.64 3.47
Apr-14 4.32 1.42 2.87 -0.02 0.30 0.85 -0.56 4.02 0.57 3.45
May-14 4.24 1.55 2.62 -0.07 0.33 0.93 -0.60 3.91 0.62 3.29
Jun-14 4.33 1.47 2.78 -0.08 0.31 0.88 -0.57 4.01 0.59 3.42
Jul-14 4.37 1.56 2.89 0.08 0.30 0.94 -0.64 4.07 0.62 3.45
Aug-14 4.34 1.51 2.82 -0.01 0.23 0.86 -0.62 4.11 0.65 3.45
Sep-14 4.38 1.53 2.84 -0.01 0.30 0.91 -0.61 4.08 0.62 3.46
Oct-14 4.53 1.42 3.23 0.12 0.27 0.85 -0.58 4.26 0.57 3.69
Nov-14 4.52 1.62 3.02 0.12 0.34 0.98 -0.63 4.17 0.64 3.53
Dec-14 4.58 1.68 2.89 0.00 0.31 1.02 -0.71 4.28 0.67 3.61
Jan-15 4.69 1.69 2.96 -0.04 0.33 1.01 -0.68 4.36 0.68 3.68
Feb-15 4.69 1.71 2.93 -0.05 0.31 1.06 -0.75 4.38 0.65 3.73
Mar-15 4.58 1.67 2.88 -0.03 0.27 1.03 -0.75 4.31 0.64 3.66
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.8% 6.9% 0.2% -21.9% 10.7% 4.9% 1.4%
% of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 6.0% 61.5% 94.0% 38.5%
Finished Products NGLs Petrol.
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2012 0.74 0.53 0.08 1.81 0.56 2.37
2013 0.77 0.56 0.05 1.84 0.66 2.50
2014 0.78 0.56 0.07 1.86 0.65 2.51
1Q 2014 0.74 0.58 0.08 1.83 0.65 2.48
2Q 2014 0.79 0.52 0.06 1.79 0.65 2.44
3Q 2014 0.82 0.58 0.07 1.97 0.65 2.61
4Q 2014 0.78 0.57 0.07 1.85 0.65 2.49
1Q 2015 0.74 0.57 0.07 1.79 0.65 2.44
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.3% -1.4% -12.6% -2.4% 0.0% -1.8%
Mar-14 0.74 0.55 0.07 1.73 0.65 2.38
Apr-14 0.75 0.49 0.05 1.67 0.65 2.31
May-14 0.80 0.54 0.05 1.80 0.65 2.45
Jun-14 0.83 0.54 0.07 1.90 0.65 2.54
Jul-14 0.85 0.55 0.08 2.01 0.65 2.66
Aug-14 0.81 0.56 0.07 1.93 0.65 2.57
Sep-14 0.79 0.63 0.06 1.96 0.65 2.61
Oct-14 0.79 0.62 0.06 1.91 0.65 2.56
Nov-14 0.78 0.56 0.06 1.81 0.65 2.46
Dec-14 0.78 0.54 0.09 1.82 0.65 2.47
Jan-15 0.75 0.56 0.05 1.76 0.65 2.40
Feb-15 0.75 0.62 0.08 1.87 0.65 2.52
Mar-15 0.72 0.54 0.07 1.74 0.65 2.39
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.5% -2.1% -92.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4%
Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol.
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2012 18.2 18.7 2.8 56.0 100.0 156.0
2013 16.5 13.8 2.4 52.4 98.9 151.3
2014 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3
1Q 2014 19.3 16.9 2.6 57.8 101.8 159.6
2Q 2014 17.5 15.2 2.5 54.8 101.0 155.8
3Q 2014 17.9 13.5 1.9 54.1 103.1 157.2
4Q 2014 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3
1Q 2015 17.0 15.7 2.9 54.1 104.0 158.1
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -11.9% -7.2% 11.1% -6.4% 2.1% -1.0%
Mar-14 19.3 16.9 2.6 57.8 101.8 159.6
Apr-14 19.3 19.1 2.8 59.9 103.6 163.4
May-14 17.3 14.3 3.1 55.1 101.6 156.7
Jun-14 17.5 15.2 2.5 54.8 101.0 155.8
Jul-14 19.4 14.6 3.1 58.3 103.2 161.5
Aug-14 18.3 15.0 2.7 58.4 103.1 161.6
Sep-14 17.9 13.5 1.9 54.1 103.1 157.2
Oct-14 16.8 14.9 2.4 53.4 106.7 160.1
Nov-14 18.3 13.7 2.9 56.1 104.7 160.8
Dec-14 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3
Jan-15 19.6 19.1 2.6 62.1 104.0 166.1
Feb-15 18.2 16.3 2.7 54.6 103.2 157.8
Mar-15 17.0 15.7 2.9 54.1 104.0 158.1
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -11.9% -7.2% 11.1% -6.4% 2.1% -1.0%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 22
D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s
Energy Statistics Handbook.
Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type
Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs
2012 2.47 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.20 3.25 0.86 0.90 0.45 0.89 0.14
2013 2.63 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.23 3.46 0.91 0.94 0.45 0.98 0.15
2014 2.91 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.76 0.94 0.95 0.46 1.21 0.22
1Q 2014 2.87 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.24 3.74 0.97 1.00 0.46 1.13 0.18
2Q 2014 2.81 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.66 0.94 0.88 0.46 1.20 0.20
3Q 2014 2.92 0.50 0.05 0.01 0.19 3.72 0.89 0.94 0.46 1.23 0.23
4Q 2014 3.04 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.90 0.95 1.00 0.46 1.28 0.27
1Q 2015 3.17 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.22 4.02 0.93 1.09 0.45 1.32 0.22
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.6% -1.2% 18.3% -5.4% -7.6% 7.3% -3.9% 9.5% -3.4% 17.3% 21.1%
Mar-14 2.92 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.24 3.82 0.99 0.97 0.47 1.19 0.19
Apr-14 2.83 0.52 0.05 0.01 0.20 3.68 0.95 0.87 0.47 1.20 0.20
May-14 2.75 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.23 3.60 0.94 0.82 0.46 1.20 0.20
Jun-14 2.86 0.49 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.69 0.92 0.93 0.45 1.20 0.21
Jul-14 2.91 0.49 0.05 0.01 0.21 3.73 0.90 0.95 0.45 1.23 0.22
Aug-14 2.93 0.50 0.05 0.01 0.15 3.70 0.86 0.90 0.46 1.28 0.24
Sep-14 2.90 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.21 3.74 0.91 0.98 0.46 1.19 0.23
Oct-14 3.06 0.52 0.05 0.01 0.18 3.89 0.91 0.97 0.47 1.33 0.26
Nov-14 2.98 0.52 0.05 0.01 0.25 3.87 0.98 1.04 0.46 1.19 0.26
Dec-14 3.07 0.53 0.06 0.01 0.22 3.94 0.96 0.99 0.46 1.30 0.28
Jan-15 3.16 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.24 4.04 0.97 1.10 0.46 1.31 0.20
Feb-15 3.21 0.50 0.05 0.01 0.22 4.07 0.93 1.11 0.44 1.34 0.22
Mar-15 3.13 0.50 0.06 0.01 0.19 3.94 0.89 1.07 0.44 1.32 0.23
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.1% -5.3% 20.6% -5.2% -20.8% 3.3% -10.2% 10.0% -7.4% 10.2% 22.5%
Non-OPEC OPEC Imports
Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total
2012 22 16 25 50 372 142 52 67 6 350 150 723
2013 24 15 36 55 466 71 47 16 2 177 57 643
2014 17 164 3 12 453 38 27 0 1 90 23 543
1Q 2014 14 146 0 0 431 70 17 0 4 143 52 574
2Q 2014 2 189 11 19 450 12 25 0 0 79 42 528
3Q 2014 31 202 0 11 479 28 46 0 0 74 0 554
4Q 2014 21 118 2 19 451 43 21 0 0 64 0 515
1Q 2015 0 303 0 7 485 61 30 0 0 91 0 576
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -100.0% 107.3% - >100% 12.4% -13.0% 78.9% 0.0% -100.0% -36.1% -100.0% 0.3%
Mar-14 18 216 0 0 372 33 51 0 0 145 61 517
Apr-14 4 0 33 6 344 35 30 0 0 125 60 470
May-14 1 292 0 21 476 0 14 0 0 80 66 556
Jun-14 0 276 0 30 529 0 31 0 0 31 0 560
Jul-14 18 0 0 8 467 33 62 0 0 95 0 562
Aug-14 30 329 0 26 565 0 0 0 0 0 0 565
Sep-14 46 276 0 0 406 51 77 0 0 128 0 534
Oct-14 31 0 0 23 393 58 0 0 0 58 0 452
Nov-14 19 353 7 0 454 54 64 0 0 117 0 572
Dec-14 12 0 0 34 505 18 0 0 0 18 0 523
Jan-15 0 300 0 20 495 83 0 0 0 83 0 577
Feb-15 0 286 0 0 439 33 91 0 0 125 0 564
Mar-15 0 322 0 0 522 67 0 0 0 67 0 588
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -100.0% 49% 0.0% -100.0% 40.2% 102.8% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% -54.0% -100.0% 13.8%
% of Total3 0.0% 54.7% 0.0% 0.0% 88.7% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 100.0%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 23
E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2012 2,390 99 24 2,513 217 368 585 254 165 419 3,517
2013 2,221 117 27 2,365 219 368 586 288 195 483 3,435
2014 2,323 122 26 2,472 228 371 598 318 185 503 3,573
1Q 2014 2,385 116 28 2,529 230 358 588 310 199 509 3,626
2Q 2014 2,141 126 27 2,294 221 376 598 327 181 508 3,399
3Q 2014 2,373 124 25 2,522 231 374 605 321 188 510 3,636
4Q 2014 2,395 124 25 2,544 229 374 603 314 172 486 3,632
1Q 2015 1,755 109 21 1,886 214 357 571 322 172 494 2,950
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -26.4% -6.3% -22.9% -25.4% -7.1% -0.4% -3.0% 3.9% -13.9% -3.1% -18.7%
May-14 2,107 129 25 2,261 218 376 594 327 190 517 3,372
Jun-14 2,189 116 29 2,334 222 376 598 336 169 505 3,437
Jul-14 2,312 130 25 2,467 228 378 606 340 195 535 3,608
Aug-14 2,384 119 26 2,529 229 374 603 318 192 510 3,642
Sep-14 2,423 122 25 2,570 235 370 605 306 178 484 3,659
Oct-14 2,432 124 25 2,581 227 365 592 305 179 484 3,657
Nov-14 2,425 124 26 2,575 229 379 608 316 171 487 3,670
Dec-14 2,329 123 24 2,476 231 377 608 320 166 486 3,570
Jan-15 2,120 107 20 2,247 212 361 573 324 165 489 3,309
Feb-15 1,774 108 22 1,904 218 358 576 323 183 506 2,986
Mar-15 1,372 112 22 1,506 211 352 563 319 167 486 2,555
Apr-15 1,133 97 20 1,250 208 337 545 319 154 473 2,268
May-15 1,029 96 15 1,140 202 322 524 308 155 463 2,127
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -51.2% -25.6% -40.0% -49.6% -7.3% -14.4% -11.8% -5.8% -18.4% -10.4% -36.9%
% of Total2 48.4% 4.5% 0.7% 53.6% 9.5% 15.1% 24.6% 14.5% 7.3% 21.8% 100.0%
United States Canada North America1
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total
2012 113 440 1,144 168 53 1,919 1,871 47 364 1,725 558 2,283
2013 89 420 1,049 153 50 1,761 1,705 56 351 1,728 384 2,112
2014 86 453 1,114 156 53 1,861 1,804 57 376 1,905 332 2,238
1Q 2014 84 432 1,065 149 50 1,780 1,725 55 511 1,946 345 2,291
2Q 2014 85 445 1,118 148 55 1,852 1,796 56 202 1,736 318 2,054
3Q 2014 84 468 1,138 159 54 1,903 1,842 61 385 1,964 324 2,288
4Q 2014 89 467 1,135 166 53 1,911 1,854 56 407 1,976 341 2,317
1Q 2015 74 358 814 107 27 1,380 1,330 49 309 1,400 289 1,688
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.5% -17.2% -23.5% -28.4% -45.6% -22.5% -22.9% -11.2% -39.6% -28.1% -16.4% -26.3%
May-14 87 445 1,123 147 56 1,859 1,801 58 163 1,697 325 2,022
Jun-14 85 450 1,118 151 58 1,861 1,804 58 240 1,787 314 2,101
Jul-14 83 458 1,127 154 54 1,876 1,819 57 350 1,912 314 2,226
Aug-14 82 470 1,140 158 53 1,904 1,842 62 399 1,979 324 2,303
Sep-14 87 477 1,146 165 55 1,930 1,866 64 406 2,000 336 2,336
Oct-14 90 466 1,144 172 54 1,925 1,868 57 424 2,018 331 2,349
Nov-14 90 469 1,145 168 54 1,925 1,872 53 421 1,995 351 2,346
Dec-14 87 468 1,118 159 51 1,882 1,824 59 375 1,915 342 2,257
Jan-15 80 437 992 140 29 1,683 1,629 53 368 1,731 320 2,051
Feb-15 72 348 802 102 26 1,348 1,296 52 363 1,415 296 1,711
Mar-15 69 288 649 78 27 1,109 1,066 43 195 1,054 250 1,304
Apr-15 72 252 557 71 27 976 943 33 90 844 222 1,066
May-15 68 226 505 69 23 889 857 32 80 746 223 969
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -21.5% -49.2% -55.0% -53.1% -59.2% -52.2% -52.4% -44.8% -50.9% -56.0% -31.4% -52.1%
% of Total3 7.0% 23.3% 52.1% 7.1% 2.4% 91.7% 88.4% 3.3% 8.3% 77.0% 23.0% 100.0%
CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil
Page 24
Geographical Specifications
1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republ ic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak
Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran,
Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is
comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD
Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non-
OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England
(Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,
Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida,
Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid
-West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South
Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama,
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West
(PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West
(PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon,
Washington.
3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the
Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova
Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British
Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest
Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon).
Additional Notes
1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs),
whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates.
Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as
NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined
products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo
by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified
quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3.
Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the
loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the
responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is
priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the
transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is
similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF
transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is
greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5.
Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock
changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.
Crude Stream
Producing
Country or
Region
API
Gravity
(@60° F)
Sulfur
Content
(%)
BBLs/Metric
Tonne
Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910
Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773
WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640
GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640
Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640
Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640
Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640
ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640
Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551
Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506
Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462
Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373
Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373
Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373
Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373
WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328
Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284
Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284
Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239
Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194
Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105
Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061
ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061
Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971
Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971
Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838
Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436
Crude Oil Qualities
For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6
