Jan RutkowskiWorld Bank

SarajevoOctober 27-28

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1. The shift in labor demand: from less to more skilled jobs

2. Industrial restructuring is an important source of a skills mismatch in transition economies

3. Hard skills are not enough: soft skills play a critical role

4. Skills mismatch may become an obstacle to modernization and growth of transition economies

5. Skills ≠ diplomas need to develop better measures of skills supply and demand

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World Bank studies on labor market skills in Europe and Central Asia◦ Regional report◦ Country studies◦ Planned surveys of skills supply and demand

Main findings of country studies◦ FYR Macedonia◦ Croatia◦ Poland

Policy response to the skills gap

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Demand for skills in ECA Education and the supply of skills to the

ECA market Resolving the skills shortage in the ECA

region: A policy framework Managing for results at the pre-university

level of education Managing for results in the tertiary

education sector Advancing adult learning in ECA

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Ukraine labor demand study (2009) Croatia: Reaching and sustaining higher

rates of economic growth (2009) Are Skills Constraining Growth in Bosnia and

Herzegovina (2009) Demand for skills in FYR Macedonia (2010) Fuelling growth and competitiveness in

Poland through employment, skills and innovation (2011)

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World-wide project on the supply of and demand for skills

Household based standardized survey of the supply of skills

Employer based standardized survey of the demand for skills

WB countries to be covered: Macedonia and Serbia

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Macedonia Poland

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Professionals and managers

Technicians Clerks Service and sales workers

Skilled agriculutural workers

Skilled manual Unskilled manual

perc

enta

ge p

oint

s

Changes in employment shares by occupationMacedonia FYR, 2001-2006

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Professionals and managers

Technicians Clerks Service and sales workers

Skilled agriculutural workers

Skilled manual Unskilled manualpc

t poi

nts

Changes in employment shares by occupationPoland, 1995 - 2006

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0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1996 2006

Wage Growth by Occupation(average wage growth = 1)

Bulgaria 1996 - 2006

Managers and officials

Professionals

Technicians

Clerks

Service and sales

Craftsmen

Machine operators & assemblersElementary occupations

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Between occupational groups◦ Too many social scientists, too few engineers◦ Too many clerks, too few nurses and electricians

Within occupational group (skills gap)◦ Inadequate technical (job specific) skills◦ Inadequate cognitive skills ◦ Inadequate behavioral & social (soft) skills◦ Too much theoretical knowledge, too little

practical skills

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Only proxies for skills: education, occupation

But skills ≠diplomas, educated ≠ skilled Labor market indicators

◦ Unemployment rate: excess supply◦ Vacancy rate: unmet demand◦ U/V ratio (by education, occupation)

Employer surveys Tracer surveys of graduates

◦ Poland: obligatory for tertiary education institutions

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Managers Professionals Technicians Clerks Service and sales workers

Agriculture Craftsmen Machine operators & assemblers

Elementary occupations

perc

ent

Job vacancy rate by occupationPoland 2005-2008

2005 2006 2007 2008

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Skills Difference in the “importance” index (ranges from 1 to 5)

Foreign language .54

Use of ICT .52

Problem solving skills .27

Technical/vocational skills (basic & advanced)

.25

Planning and organization .23

Self-management & entrepreneurship

.21

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Educational system more responsive to the changing labor market needs◦ Broad and transferable skills to prepare workers for the world of growing

job and occupational mobility◦ Interactions with employers◦ Life long learning

More emphasis on development of soft skills◦ Work attitudes and behavioral skills as important for employability as

hard technical skills◦ Educational system focuses on equipping students with cognitive &

technical skills rather than soft skills◦ Closing the skills gap will require reorientation of educational and

training policy Good and accessible labor market information to guide

career choices◦ As opposed to manpower planning

Better information on skills supply and demand◦ Employer surveys, tracer surveys of graduates, survey of skills

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