Investigating Zoning Policy with the Baltimore PECAS Model

Investigating Zoning Policy with the Baltimore PECAS ModelJamie BridgesCharles Baber

John AbrahamAbdel-Rahman MuhsenDimantha De SilvaSudipta SarkarBaltimore Metropolitan Council

HBA Specto IncorporatedIntroductionPlanning in the Baltimore MD USA regionCoordinate land use and transportation policy and investmentsBuilt and are using a spatial-economic planning analysis model based on the PECAS frameworkThree scenarios analyzedBase scenarioLimited road infrastructureRestrictions on rural development

PECAS FrameworkAA Module

AA Price Clearing

AA FundamentalsRandom utility basedIndustry and household categories making decisionsSpatial market clearingGoods, services, labour, spaceShort term equilibriumPrices costsFixed quantity of space

SD ModuleSD FundamentalsRandom utility basedParcel-by-parcel microsimulation1 million parcels in BaltimoreEnough samples from random number generator to generate reasonable and repeatable patternHighest and best use most probableReturn on investmentj*rentz*mod amt(cost)Base scenarioBase growth rate from Cooperative Forecast GroupApproved transportation networkZoning based on generalization of six comprehensive plans

2035 vs 2000 Households

2035 vs 2000 Residential Space

2035 vs 2000 Production Activity M$

2035 vs 2000 Commercial Space sqft

Scenario S31: Less infrastructureForgo $6Billion in highway infrastructureChange in Residential Space (S31 base)

Small changes, hardly noticable in magnitude or pattern15Change in Production(M$, S31 base)

Subcenters do not emerge without new freeways16Change Non Residential Space (S31 base)

Large change, 2 centers do not appear without the freeways

17Benefit measures

HouseholdsIndustryEffect of no freewaysDisbenefit especially for high income householdsDisbenefit for some industriesHousehold location changes smallNot generally a concentrationModel predicts commercial subcentres due to freeway constructionComplex economyEven in older established medium sized city

Scenario S32:Development RestrictionsNo development outside of Priority Funding AreasChange in Residential Space (S32 base)

Much larger changes21Change in Production(M$, S32 base)

Subcenters do not emerge without new freeways22Change Non Residential Space (S31 base)

Large change, 2 centers do not appear without the freeways

23Benefit measures

HouseholdsIndustryEffect of PFA Only DevelopmentDisbenefit especially for high income householdsBenefit for industriesResidential re-allocates fairly evenly in allowed areasNon-residential / production much less intuitiveMixed use development on military areaPerhaps not realistic because of zoning, but a good idea?Complex economy

ConclusionsFreeway effect alone smallBaltimore freeways should be combined with other supportive policiesForced densification through zoning unpopular with high income householdsBut popular for employersModel shows complex economy and relationshipsSupports more sophisticated and holistic policy space search