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Spanish steel marketIs the worst over?
2014/04/28METAL EXPERT – STRESA 2
Economic Overview
Consumer sectors
Steel market
INDEX
2014/04/28METAL EXPERT – STRESA 3
Economic Overview
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Social Security enrollment turned into positive Better domestic than foreign deman
Q1 GDP: expected 0.4% q-o-q
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Confidence is up
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Markedly up in services an consumers
Confidence is up
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Confidence is up
Industry stabilized in the last quarter
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Credit stock keeps falling New credit is not growing yet
Virtuous circle? Wait for credit
Source: BofE and BBVA Research
New credit Y-o-y growth
Trend Trend
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Consumption: Surprising performance Inflation in line with wage devaluation
Macro forecast
2013 2014 2015Private consumption -2,1 0,9 1Total Investments -5,1 -0,1 1,9 Machinery & Equipment 2,2 4,9 5,9 Construction -9,6 -3 0,5Exports 4,9 5,8 5,9Imports 0,4 3,3 4,9GDP -1,2 0,9 1,6
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Consumer sectors
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Positive since November No signs of radical improvements ahead
Industrial production
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Public tendering has changed the trend
Construction
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Public tendering has changed the trend Residential construction has not
Construction
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As a result, activity is near to stabilize
Construction
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European registrations are back to growth
Automotive
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New models are pushing vehicle production Components are lagging behind
Automotive
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Confidence growth is wobbly
Mechanical engineering
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Steel Market
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Flats
Longs
Total
2013 (mill. t.)
6.7
3.6
10.4
var 2012(%)
2.6
-3.7
-0.6
var 2007 (%)
-38.7
-69.3
-55.3
Apparent consumption - History
Recovery starting from a very low level
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Share of non-EU countries in line with historical trend
Imports have evolved in line with demand
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Auto
Steady growth
Mech. Equipe
Investment shoud
pull
Constr.
Turning point
Starting to grow
Tubes, ware
Constr. Influence
SWIP
+1,6%
+3,8%
Real consumption – Prospective
2014
2015
Generalized sector improvement
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Apparent consumption – Prospective
AC
2013 -0.5%2014 2.0%2015 5.0%
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More supportive macro environment
Growth in real demand
The weather has changed
Credit is still scarce Starting levels are low
Quantities Margins
Volatility will be high
But difficulties remain
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ACTUALIZADO
