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Iowa’s Changing Demographics
June 2016
Gary Krob, State Data Center Coordinator
State Library of Iowa [email protected]
www.iowadatacenter.org
Population Topics
o State trends o Total population, age, race, and Hispanic Origin
o County trends o Total population, age, race, and Hispanic Origin
o Economic trends o Median household income and poverty rates
o County comparisons o Adams, Dallas, Pocahontas, and Polk counties
2
State population trends
3
Iowa Population: 1900-2015
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Population in millions
T
4 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and Population Estimates
2015 population: 3,123,899
•28 consecutive years of population gain
Population Change: 1900-2015
6
Increase 500% or more
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Population Estimates
Population Change: 1900-2015
7
Increase 100% or more
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Population Estimates
Population Change: 1900-2015
8
Increase 50% or more
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Population Estimates
Iowa’s growth: 40%
Population Change: 2000-2015
9 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Population Estimates
U.S. growth = 10.7%
+6.8%
+17.9%
+13.3%
+10.8%
+8.7%
+3.5%
+8.3%
+8.9%
+11.6% +7.6%
-0.2%
+2.3%
How Population Changes
Population base
Births
Deaths
Migration(International and domestic)
10
How Iowa’s Population Changed: 2000-2009
2000 population 2,926,324
Natural change 106,396
Net international migration 36,329
Net state-to-state migration 52,205
Residual change 8,988
2009 population 3,007,856
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 11
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009
How Iowa Population Changed: 2010-2015
2010 population 3,046,355
Natural change 56,019
Net international migration 29,280
Net state-to-state migration 7,170
Residual change 1,099
2015 population 3,123,899
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 12
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011
Iowa Births and Deaths(Natural Change):
1915-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Births and deaths in thousands
BirthsDeaths
13 Data Source: Iowa Department of Public Health, 2015 U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 Population Estimates
Birth Dearth
Baby Boom
Baby Bust
Baby Boom Echo
Iowa Net Migration: 1940-2015
22,11048,938
-178,212
-229,657
-183,609
-60,661
-283,396
-15,876
1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
14 Data Sources: 1940-2000 - ISU Census Services 2000+ - U.S. Census Bureau
Net movers in and out of Iowa
Iowa Migration Components: 2001-2015
3,189
988
4,840 5,090 5,5596,394 6,409
-2,135
-160
-4,282
3,2673,5383,7034,0014,9515,594
3,619 3,090
-3,949
203614404
-13,262 -13,229
-8,540
-3,901-5,543
48
-1,872-1,155
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
InternationalDomestic
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 15
Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011
Net movers in and out of Iowa
Iowa Population Projections: 2010-2050
16 Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2015
State population in millions
State age, race, and Hispanic Origin trends
Iowa Age Distribution: 1900
150 100 50 0 50 100 150
0 to 4
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 84
Thousands
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 18
Male Female
Age
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900
Iowa Age Distribution: 1960
160 110 60 10 40 90 1400 to 4
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 84
Thousands
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 19
Male Female
Age
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900
Iowa Age Distribution: 1980
150 100 50 0 50 100 1500 to 4
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 84
Thousands
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 21
Male Female
Age
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900
Iowa Age Distribution: 2014
150 100 50 0 50 100 1500 to 4
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 84
Thousands
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 24
Male Female
Age
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900
26
Population Under 5 years of age: 2014
6.0% or more of total population is age Under 5 years of age (39 states)
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Estimates
Iowa = 6.3% Iowa rank among states: 23th
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 27
Population Age 65 and over: 2014
15% or more of total population is age 65 and over (26 states)
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Estimates
Iowa = 15.8% Iowa rank among states: 13th
Projected Age Groups in Iowa: 2010-2050
28
6.4
23.6
14.9
2.8
7.0
23.6
18.1
2.0
6.6
24.1
21.4
2.6
6.6
23.720.8
3.3
6.6
23.7
20.0
3.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Under 5 Under 18 65 and over 85 and over2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Percent of total population
Age groups Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2015
Iowa Change in Race and Ethnicity: 2000-2014
6.2 4.1
71.5
88.5
110.5
Total White Black Asian Hispanic
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 29
Percent change 2000-2014
Iowa Median Age by Race and Ethnicity: 2014
38.1 39.4
25.428.6
22.2
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 30
Data Source: US. Census Bureau, 2014 population estimates
Median Age
Total population White Black Asian Hispanic
Iowa Population by Race and Ethnicity: 2010 and 2050
91.3
2.9 0.4 1.7 5.0
13.0
3.60.46.6
76.4
White Black American Indian Asian Hispanic
2010
2050
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 31
Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 and Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2015
Percentage of total state population
Iowa Minority* Age Distribution: 2010
25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 250 to 4
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 84
Thousands
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 32
Male Female
Age
* Minority includes all race groups except white non-Hispanic
Iowa Birth Rates by Race: 2014
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 33
Data Source: Iowa Department of Public Health, 2010
Births per 1,000 population
All races White Black Asian Hispanic
12.711.6
19.518.4
20.3
All races White Black Asian Hispanic
County trends
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 35
36
County Population: 2015
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Annual Population Estimates
37
County Population Change: 1980-2015
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 Census and 2015 Annual Population Estimates
38
County Population Change: 2010-2015
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2015 Annual Population Estimates
39
County Population Change: 2010-2050
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. 2015
40
Iowa Counties with a population over 50,000: 1980
Data: Decennial Census 1980
42
Iowa Counties with a population over 50,000: 2000
Data: Decennial Census 2000
44
Iowa Counties with a population over 50,000: 2015
Data: 2015 Annual Population Estimates
Iowa Counties with a population under 10,000
1518
24
1980 2000 2015
Number of Counties
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 45
• Fastest declining counties o Pocahontas County: -
38.4% o Adams County:
-33.8% o Audubon County :
-32.6% o Kossuth County:
-30.7% o Sac County:
-29.0%
• Fastest growing counties o Dallas County:
171.5% o Johnson County:
76.5% o Polk County :
54.3% o Warren County:
39.4% o Story County:
32.8% 46
County Population Change: 1980-2015
County race and Hispanic origin trends
48
49
Hispanic or Latino origin: 1980
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 decennial census
50
Hispanic or Latino origin: 2014
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 annual population estimates
51
Hispanic or Latino origin: 2050
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. 2015
52
Black/African American: 1980
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 decennial census
53
Black/African American: 2014
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 annual population estimates
54
Black/African American: 2050
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. 2015
County age trends
55
56
Children and Older Iowans: 1980
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 decennial census
57
Children and Older Iowans: 2014
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 annual population estimates
58
Children and Older Iowans: 2050
Data Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. 2015
County economic trends
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 64
Median Household Income : 2014
Data Source: Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates: 2014 U.S. Census Bureau
Iowa Median =$53,816
State Data Center of Iowa www.iowadatacenter.org 66
Poverty rates: 2014
Data Source: Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates: 2014 U.S. Census Bureau
Iowa poverty rate: 12.3%
County comparisons
68
Polk county & Dallas county
Polk county is Iowa’s largest county (467,711) while Dallas county has grown the fastest since 1980 (171.5%).
69
Adams county & Pocahontas county
Adams county is Iowa’s smallest county (3,796) while Pocahontas county has declined the most since 1980 (38.4%).
70
State Data Center Web site: www.iowadatacenter.org
State Data Center
Gary Krob (515) 281-6618
(800) 248-4483
www.iowadatacenter.org
71
