Inv InvestmentMap Beirut VE-Short 17-2-2009 · size ~Except energy, petrochemicals, mining, agribusiness, real estate, tourism and some new sectors (ICT, off-shoring) zFew world-level

Investment mapof the

Med Invest Beirut20 February 2009Bénédict de Saint-Laurent

Mediterranean

MedInvest Beirut /20 Feb.2009 ©ANIMA-Invest in Med 2009 2www.invest-in-med.eu

Med? What does it mean?

MoroccoIsrael

Jordan

Egypt

Tunisia Malta

Turkey

AlgeriaLebanon

Syria

Palestine

Cyprus

Libya

9 countries associated with EUMalta and Cyprus joined EU-27 in 2004Turkey is now a candidate to EULibya is an observer

European Union

Gulf countries

In these slides, Turkey is included in the Med region

(‘Med-10’)


A. Med Overview


Geographical constraints

Straits, canal

Narrow seashore band

Desert, droughtWithout talking about conflicts…

The Mediterranean, a closed sea « eaten by mountains »(Fernand Braudel)


Med: a mixed situationImbalances in Med countries

A major economic gap with EUInsufficient regional integration An asymetric relationship with Europe (trade, media, rights etc.)Strong cultural domination by foreign models (EU, US, Asia, Gulf)

Difficult challengesYouth, consumption needs, middle class developmentUrbanisation, water, transport, education, health etc.Limited /over-occupied /over-wanted (and fragile) seashore

In most of the regionLack of industrial depth /few economic championsHigh reliance on energy /resources /raw productionNarrow focus in FDI (real estate, tourism, energy, banks)

However things may change rapidly !

EU-27:US$ 34,502

Med-10: US$4,737

GDP per capita 2007,World Bank


Industrial gaps in Med countries

Weak industrial fabricProductive system characterised mainly by smallenterprises

Strong specialisation in low and mid-tech sectorsAgrofood, textile/clothing/footwear, furniture, mechanics

Local industry lacks depth, integration and international size

Except energy, petrochemicals, mining, agribusiness, real estate, tourism and some new sectors (ICT, off-shoring)

Few world-level metropolitan industrial clusters Tanger-Med, Arzew, Southern Tunis, Alexandria, Istanbul


Result: a limited position in world trade2.6% of exports, vs. 4% of population

And this percentage includes energy!

High imbalance imports (covered at 78%) vs. exports

With the notable exception of Algeria

Fairly modest intra-Med trade

4.5% of imports /6.2% exports, to be compared with 45 /49% with EU

Source Euromed Transport 2002 data


Med business in the global worldFew international companies

Champions: Orascom, hydrocarbons, construction holdings…

Obstacles in enterprise/SME development Infrastructure, financing, trade barriers, red tape, poor internet serviceLimited entrepreneurship, university-industry relationshipThe formal sector is often a minority employer

Companies dominated by foreign partners /competitors

Mainly sub-contractors or assemblers Absence in the most strategic segments of the value chain (branding, design, organisation of work, marketing, logistics, R&D, distribution etc.)


Med, what industrial future?Probably not the plant of the world

Except in a few sectors: eg. petrochemicals, metallurgy, fertilizers

Some niches with competitive advantages for MedContainer routes, reasonable labour cost cars, electronicsHeritage, civilisation, sun & sea tourism, healthcareProximity with Europe garments, short fashionInterest for farming, gardening agribusiness, organic foodEtc.

But most of growth and jobs will come from mid-size activities…

Services and light industryDirect jump into the knowledge economy? ICT, education, R&D

… and from smart co-development with Europe


Med, a motor for Euro-Med growth?

2.6

3.6

9.3

5.1

4.5

4.4

2.7

4.5

1.42.2

5.3

9.9

5.0

3.3

5.5

4.9

8.0

6.0

EURO-MED

EU 27

MEDA 10

ALENA

MERCOSUR

CHINA

INDIA

ASEAN

RUSSIA

SADC

10 year change in GDP growthSource: www.ers.usda.gov

1997

2006

1997

2006

1997

2006

1997

2006

1997

2006


Recent trendsGrowth

According to World Bank limited growth of 3.9% (vs. previous forecast of 5.9%) expected in the MENA region in 2009

Med will be partly hit by the global crisisWeaker oil revenuesTighter credit conditions Reduced demand for the region’s exports, including tourismE.g. 50,000 jobs lost in textile export sector in Morocco 2008

Cancellation of numerous programmes –two examples:Nissan to move out of Tanger Med car projectEmaar, Nakheel or Damac projects cancelled in several places

However the region will suffer less than othersSome countries are relatively protected (Algeria)Cheap oil and low inflation benefit to several countries…Good rains over Maghreb…Europe often considers Med as a recourse


World: where is the growth in 2009?


Euro-Med GDP N°1 in the world

ASEAN

RUSSIA

EURO-MED

EU 27MED-10

ALENA

MERCOSUR

CHINA

INDIA

SADC

14 421

925

15 346

2 668

3791 492

15 291

906

1052

987

2006 GDP in bn US$(World Bank)


Mobile & Internet UseEuro-Med n°1

595

466

129

307

156

461

166

58

281

247

34

252

60

137

60

8

EURO-MED

EU 27

MED-10ALENA

MERCOSUR

CHINA

INDIA

SADC

Mobile phone, million users 2006Internet, million users 2006

Source: CIA World Factbook


B. Investors& projects


FDI flows to Med-10: soft landing?

10 093

55 05159 021

30 045

8 9416 225

45 000

56 72567 496

38 6

31

12 7379 786

36 069

757657

325

249167

767711

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

FDI flow, UNCTAD- US$m FDI flow, ANIMA, €m Nb. of projectsANIMA (MIPO)= announced investment via company projects (micro-economic view)UNCTAD = money flows recorded by Central Banks (macro-economic view)


490

262

752

1 322

248266

443

1 130

560

141531

59

590

69

025

263

17

51

29

ASEAN

RUSSIA

Population 2006

Foreign investment 2006

EURO-MED

EU 27

MED-10ALENA

MERCOSUR

CHINA

INDIA

SADC

Euro-Med attracts 45% of world FDI

(UNCTAD)


Main 2008 trendsMain regions of destination

Machreck in sharp decline (18% of FDI flows vs. 44% in 2007)Maghreb levels off (20% of FDI flows vs. 26% en 2007)« Others countries » (mainly Turkey, Israel) get the lion’s share(62% of all Med FDI)

Source of FDI Europe (41%) is leading, but « other emerging countries » now represent a solid 28% (of which Azerbaijan 13%, Asia 6%)Gulf-based (17%) & US (12%) investors are trailing

Nature of projectsAverage amount per project drops to €51m, down from €74mEnergy (28%) ranks first, followed by real estate (19%)Banks (9% of FDI), international retailers (8.8%) and chemicals(7.5%) come after


Some reasons for Med resilience to crisis

Med countries: well-equipped to resistIncreased competitive pressure for EU enterprises:restructuring of value chain, nearshoringSearch for new growth potential on more reactive marketsRepositioning of sovereign funds and Gulf investors in their Med neighbourhoodSafe Med sectors: tourism, agrifood, energy and minerals,chemicals, local consumption etc.

Reinforcement of regional integration rationaleVolatility of transport cost /energy pricesRisky logistics chain with Asia Same time zone in Euro-MedRegional bias driving investors to favour well-known markets


Med, an attractive positioning

The central segment of world trade

30% of world maritime freight & containers25% of hydrocarbures

A central positioning for high value goods

Car, electronics, brown products, fashion etc.

An attractive production platform

Affordable labour costsGood logistics

At the doors of Europe and Euro-Med future single market

America, East coast

Northern Europe

Asia

America West coast

Black SeaCentral AsiaSouthern Europe

Middle East

North Africa

Port Saïd

Bursa

Tanger Med

Malta Freeport


The region enters globalisation Investment, tourism, migrations, culture, internet, capital internationalisation etc.

A major society turning pointCf. « Le RV des civilisations » (Todd-Courbage)Triple change: alphabetism for a majority of women, strong decline in birth rate, clash new values vs. traditionThis explains many difficulties

A boost in investmentFDI x5 at US$50 bn/yrPE booming at US$5bn/yr

A new India by 2010-2015?0,8%

1,7%1,1%

2,0%1,8%

3,2%

4,2%

3,0%3,0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Since 1990-2000, in-depth changes in Med

MEDA share of world FDI


Investment records per country

€18.9 bn431 projects

AlgeriaEnergy, banks & services


CyprusTelecoms, services, agri-food


EgyptEnergy, chemicals, banks, tourism


IsraelSoftware, electronics, Banks, R&D

€10.2bn203

projects

JordanTourism, real estate,banks,

software


LebanonTourism, ICTreal estate


LibyaOil and gas,public works,

services


MoroccoAgri-food,

automobile aeronautics,

industrial sectors & ICT

€0.6bn21 projects

Palestine Au.Banks, real estate, ICT

199 proj.€11.2 bn Syria

Energy, tourism, banks, agri-food

10.2 bn333 projects

TunisiaEnergy, carsaeronautics

telecom, textile

services


TurkeyTelecoms,automobile, banks, agri-food

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

€0.7 bn

MaltaDrugs,

logistics, banks, services

46 projects

Source: ANIMA-MIPO. Announced investments


76 000 new direct jobs in 2008 (about 200 000 total jobs)This represents 5% of the 4 million jobs the Med region needs everyyear in order to maintain the current employment rateA decline compared to 2006 (101 000 direct jobs) and 2007 (86 000)The sectors of tourism and automotive are emerging as the twobiggest job creators in 2008 (real estate ranked 1st in 2007)

Significant progress achieved in terms of job qualityIndustrial specialties on the rise (for example aeronautics, ICT)Various R&D centres and labs outside Israel (Tunisia, Jordan, SmartVillage in Egypt)

Job creation via FDI is not sufficient…


Sectors: big and heavy…

7 first FDI sectors into Med countriesTotal 2003-2008 (ANIMA-MIPO)

15 other sectors22% /€51 bn

7. Chemicals, plasturgy, fertilizers

4% /€9 bn

6. Cement, minerals, glass, paper8% /€18 bn

5. Tourism8% /€19 bn

4. Telecom & internet12% /€28 bn

3. Bank & insurance14% /€33 bn

2. PW real estate transport, utilities

16% /€36 bn

1. Energy17% /€38 bn

2008 resembles 2007: The leaders: energy /petrochemicals, real estate,tourism, financial services, building materialsThe new challengers:distribution (hypermarkets), metallurgy (Algeria, Libya, Turkey), software and ITservices (Israel, but alsoTunisia, Morocco, Turkey),automotive /aeronautics(Maghreb, Turkey, Egypt)Niches to monitor: private hospitals (in Tunisia,Turkey, Algeria), R&D(Orange Lab in Amman, etc.)


Who are the investors in Med-10?

4 947

1 228761 137

14 548

2 565

7 538

4 041 4 620

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

OECDTransnational

Co.

MENATransnational

Co.

TransnationalCo. fromemergingcountry

OECD MajorCo.

MENA MajorCo.

Major Co.from

emergingcountry

OECD SME MENA SME SME fromemergingcountry

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

TNCs count for 64% and large companies for 28%SMEs (8%) are only significant from Europe


Four profiles of investors

North-Europeans, AmericansTypically « off-shore » investments (energy, desalination)Limited contacts with the country, limited spillovers

Continental Europeans (esp. latin countries)Well-integrated (sub-contracting, relocation, partnerships)More traditional sectors and more SMEs than averageAfraid by takeover of large conglomerates (prefer invest in capex)

Gulf investorsLooking for rent and high returns (oil, gas, real estate, mobile phone)Quantity, but what about quality and sustainability?

Other emerging countriesInterested in resources (China, India, Brazil)Basic industries (PWs, minerals, fertilizers, smellters, etc.) No objections for major takeovers (>5,000 staffs) and restructuring


Some significant FDI projects

Israel•(Intel) Unitédans le sud du pays (4 bn€)•(Syngenta)

Achat du semencier

Zeraim Gedera (100 mln€)

Egypt •(Lafarge) Purchase of Orascom Cement (6,4

bn€)•(San Paolo IMI)

Purchase of 80% of Bank of Alexandria (1.6 bn€)

•(Kobe Bussan) Agrifood project (1 bn€)

Algeria•(Mubadala /Dubal) Aluminum smelter (2,6bn€)

Morocco•(Renault-Nissan) « World » plant in Tanger (600 mln€)

Libya •(ENI) Investments in energy (10.8 bn€)

Lebanon• (Gulf Finance) Création d'une

station de sports d'hiver (1.1 bn€)

Jordanie (Maersk)

Container terminal

Aqaba (273 ml€)

Palestine•Mall in Ramallah

Syrie •(Northwest Oil) Oil refinery and petro-chemical complex (2.2 bn€)

Tunisia•(Dubai Holding) Takeover of Tunisie Télécom (1.8 bn€)

Turkey•((Citigroup) Purchase of 20 % of Akbank (2,5 bn€)

Source ANIMA–MIPO 2003-2008 – Not necessarily the most important projectsIn black: industrial projects– in red: real estate /tourism

•Bou Regreg Development Rabat, 2bn$

•Sport City Tunis, 5 bn $•Lac Sud, 14bn$

•Damascus Hills et Digital City (Emaar), 3.4 bn $

•33 Italian SMEs Residential & cultural complex Oran, 500m€

•(Emaar) New Cairo City, 4 bn$

•(Majid al Futaim) Festival City, 3 bn$

•(Solidere) West Town, 2.4 bn$

•Dubaï IP Istanbul, 5bn$•Emaar/Atasay, 600 villas de luxe, 565m€

•Aqaba Horizon

5bn $

•Amman (Saudi Oger)

Abdali downtown

project

•(Al Qudra /Adoha/ Somed social housing, 2.7 bn$

•Emaar, Alger Station Colonel Abbès, 3bn€


Major public infrastructure projects

Enfidha

RadèsAlger Cap Djinet

Tanger Med

Casablanca

Izmir

Lattakia

BeirutHaifaPort Said

East-Westmotorway

BenghaziAlexandria

Cairo

Aqaba

Deir Ez Zor

Bursa

Arzew

Railway projects

Tang

ier–

Casa

-Aga

dir

high

spe

d tr

ain

Main port Port under development or project Main industrial concern

Gebze

Soukhna

Safi Hejjaz railway

Istanbul

Major road/railway

Skikda


Major port developments /Western Med

Source ISEMAR 2008

Cap Djinet?


Major Med telecom dealsFor mobile networks, over €30 bn invested in 6 years !

Orascom(Egypt)2006 2nd

mobile licence(Djezzy) €2bn

+

Watanya (Kuwait) /Qtel(Qatar)2006Mobilelicense in Palestine €0.4 bn

FT/Orange(France)Since 2002 JV with OrascomMobiNil/ 3G license /Cairo Orange Lab (R&D) >€2bn

Ashmore(UK) 2007 Acquisition of Israeli ECI Telecom €400m

Vivendi (France) Since 2004 Purchase of Maroc Telecom€4bn Telefonica

(Spain) 2005Acquisition of the 2nd fixed telephone line license

DubaiHolding (UAE) 2006Acquisition of 35% of Tunisie Télécom€1.8bn

TeliaSonera(Sweden) 2005 Purchase of TurkCell € 2.5bn

Oger (S. Arabia) 2005 55% of TurkTelekom€ 5.1bn

FT/Orange2005Acquisition of 40% of Jordan Telecom

Vodafone(UK) 2005Purchase of Telsim € 3.7bn

MTN (S. Africa) 2005 Purchase of Investcom €2.5bn

Watanya(Kuwait)2006 3rd mobile licence (Nedjma) €1.3 bn

Etilisat(UAE)20062nd mobile licence€2.3bn

Apax & partn.(UK) 2007 Acquisition of 35% of Bezeq €1.1bn


Huge urban needs

Map by M.Joannon and L.Tirone. Year 2000 data. Source: Geopolis data base

66%

29%34%

71%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1950 1975 2000 2025

North rim share (EU)South rim share (Med)

In 2025, 100 cities over 1 m pop.Of which, 75 in Med countries

Shift in global Euro-Med

population share:

the Southern rim now hosts

more inhabitants


Tanger Med Port3. Maersk et PSA, gestion des terminaux 3 et 4 de Tanger Med II

4. CMA-CGM, 100 % de la Comanav (200 millions €) et +20% du terminal 16. Pizzorno Environnement, concession de gestion des déchets (39 M €)

8. ENOC/Horizon (consortium maroco-koweito-émirati), terminal 29. Notilia, conditionnement de produits de bricolage pour la grande distribution

12. Bourbon (France), concession des services de remorquage

Tanger Med automobile cluster (14)5. Renault-Nissan usine d'envergure mondiale (600 mln €)10. Premo (Espagne), usine de composants électroniques11. Yazaki (équipementier, Japon), usine de composants

Tanger city7. Groupe Crit (intérim, France) ouvre une agence à Tanger

13. Cover Car et 15. Trecar (Portugal) sièges auto16. Elloumi / Coficab (Tunisie), câblage automobile17. Delphi (équipementier, USA), délocalisation

Project concentration on Tanger


4. Gulf Finance House: parc financier de Tunis Financial Harbour (3 bn US$)

Some projects for the Greater Tunis

1. ADIH /Gulf Finance House Abu Dhabi: projet immobilier Porta Moda

2. Bukhater Investment: Tunis Sports City (5 bn US$)

3. Dubai Holding / Sama Dubai, Century City et Mediterranean Gate (25 bn US$)

Selection among 40 projects 2003-2008 (MIPO, ANIMA)


C. Country Review


Country review, from west to eastMorocco, or the attractiveness of services

UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2007$2,57bn in 2007 vs. $2.4bn in 2006, 4th destination in AfricaIMF forecasts FDI to reach 3.8% of GDP (+1.5% compared to 2004)

Trends 2008According to the Direction des Investissements: 72 projects have been approved (Sept. 2008), amounting more than $9bn (to be invested from 2009 on) and more than 40,000 direct jobs!ANIMA-MIPO (2008 forecast): 114 projects totalling €3.66bn

ProjectsNew container terminal in Tangier Med (Maersk and PSA) Rising of the automotive-focused cluster around Renault-Nissan in Tanger-Med (?), aerospace cluster in Nouasseur (Casablanca)Tourism and real estate still strongA lot of franchising projects and SME projectsNearshoring in CasaNearshore and Rabat Technopolis


UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2007$1.66bn in 2007 and $1.79bn in 2006, against $282m in average between 1990 and 2000

Trends 2008According to ANIMA-MIPO 2008, 57 projects for €2 bn

Multiplication of large industrial projectsHigh concentration on hydrocarbonsGaz de spécialités (industrial and medical gases), lubricants (BP)Fertilizers (Villa Mir / Fertiberia, Suhail Bahwan Group)Aluminum (Alumco, Bin Laden) et metallurgy (pole of Bellara -Jijel, AFV Beltrame, Al Ezz, ArcelorMittal)

Large projectsReal Estate (Dounya Parc, Alger) « Utilities » (desalination plants)

European SMEs specialising in business servicesOften create local subsidiaries

Algeria – A promising energy…


Tunisia -Real estate fever …Trends 2008-2009

According to FIPA, FDI will decline by 15% in 2009In 2008, manufacturing investments increased by 54% over 2007ANIMA-MIPO 2008: 94 projects amounting to €1.5 bn

Many projectsEnergyBank-insurance (Islamic banking & finance, France’s Groupama whichacquires a 35% stake in Tunisia's STAR for €72mData software: the country produces thousands of new highly-skilled tunisian engineers every year

New Airbus plant in Tunisia (former Latécoère’s project)Should attract the entire sector

Major real estate projects that will change the face of TunisProjects launched by Gulf-based investors (Sama Dubai, Gulf Finance House, Bukhatir…) Italy (Preatoni)


Libya – Investment is boomingANIMA-MIPO 2008

27 projects totalling €3.1 bnOil sector represents the most important destination for FDI projects

The banking sector is attracting interestFor example, Jordan-based Arab Bank takes benefits from the privatization of Al Wahda

Rejuvenation of the national infrastructures (transport, telecoms, electricity, railway)

Attracts many foreign operators: JV between Italy’s Sirti with State-run Lptic in the telecom networks, Italy’s Impregilo in the real estate, etc.

Property and tourismHigh standard project of Malaysia-based Berjaya LandTripoli Towers by Nobles Investment

Heavy industries, chemicals, petrochemicals, aluminumRioTinto-Alcan, Klesch & Company, Rusal etc.


Egypt – Breaking new records!Investment climate and recent trends

Best reformer in the world in 2006 (Doing Business), 2nd place on the African podium in the field of FDI (UNCTAD, $11.5bn)ANIMA-MIPO 2008: 102 projects amounting to €5bn –slowdown expected in 2009

Behind energy, financePrivatisation of banks (Al Watany, Delta International Bank), network of foreign bankers (Blom Bank Egypt, HSBC), islamic finance

Large retailers: foreign companies enter the countryWalMart, Kuwait-based The Sultan Center (TSC), Germany-basedMetro, UAE’s EMKE Group and Majid Al Futtaim (MAF) etc.

Huge real estate, resorts and logisitics projectsControl of the Sokhna port by UAE’s DP World

Strong growth in engineering, chemicals, cement, fertilizersNew champions coming from emerging countriesLada (Russia): automotive; Xinao (China): production of DME (dimethyl-ether); Rasna, Reliance, Aditya Birla (India): petrochemicals, agro-food, textile


Israel – A good place for hi-tech & start-ups

UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2007Massive inflows ($14,7bn in 2006 and $10bn in 2007)

2008 trend shows a decline (US downturn effect?)More than $4.3bn for the semester 2008 (Central Bank)But ANIMA-MIPO 2008: 78 projects amounting to €3.3bn

Predominance of acquisitions in innovative start-upsTelecoms, software, micro-electronics, biotechs, medicalequipment, defense…

Overwhelming majority of projects from NorthAmerica

Especially for sectors deemed sensitive in Israel


Jordan – Strong performancesFDI/GDP ratio among the largest in the region

The Kingdom’s economic attractiveness is the main goal of the GovernementANIMA-MIPO: 37 projects totalling €1,2 bn

Profound change in the country infrastructure (via PPPs)Transport: Al Maabar (EAU): new port of Aqaba; Noor- Ineco-Tifsa willcarry out the Amman-Zarqa Railway through a 30 yrs BOT contractEnergy: Korea Electric Power Corporation: electrical power plant; Areva: production of uranium with a view to creating a future nuclearplant; Eesti Energia, Total-Petrobras: oilICT: France Télécom (major shareholder of Jordan Telecom):Technocentre in Amman; CubeCorp (Argentina) BPO services facility in Amman

Property and tourismAl Maabar, Tameer Holding, Limitless, ManazelGlasses, cement


Lebanon – A peculiar caseUNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2007

The country regains the confidence of foreign operators$2.8bn of FDI inflows in 2007

Trends 2008 -2009ANIMA-MIPO 2008: only 11 projects detected for €270mA good retention of projects linked to the specific situation of the country (services, banking, tourism, conventions etc.)Lack of industrial projects

ProjectsConstruction is still the first sector (The Cedar after The Palm? Plus Towers, Al Saifi Crown, Kempinski Residences etc.)Finance

For ex. entry of Shuaa Capital (Dubai), Bank Misr (Egypt), Al Belad (Irak) etc. IFC takes a share in Butec (PW), Bank Sharjah finances EML etc.

Large retailers, franchisingTSC (Koweit): Purchase of 6 supermarkets et Middle East regionalofficeGourmet Gulf (EAU): regional expansion plan of 40 mln USD


Disappointing FDI results, but…ANIMA figures are probably underestimated

A peculiar country again! (lots of non-publicised transactions)

Financial transfers are very highUnprecented amount of ongoing foreign capital - estimated at USD14.5bn (January-November 2008)

Mostly tourist spending, remittances from the Diaspora, banks

Before the crisis, indicators were excellent…31.4% increase in construction permits (Bank Audi)

97 000 cars imported in 2008 (Beirut Port Authorities, +103%)

Lebanon back on the tourism mapBeirut named Number 1 Place to Visit in 2009 (New York Times)

1.1 million visitors between January – October 2008 (+29%)


Lebanese potential & perspectivesReturn to growth?

GDP to almost double by 2013 (IMF 2009)

ConfidenceLebanon is expected to join the WTO by the end of 2009Moody's upgraded sovereign ratings from negative to stable (March 2008) In the context of a global economic slowdown, Lebanon seen by investors as a competitive location with highly skilled and trained staff, IT services and important off-shoring capabilities

Reserves : debt is high, but…According to the Central Bank, in 2008 the global assets of the country's banking institutions represent more than $100bn [almost 4 times current GDP]The privatisation of two cellular phone licences could serve to pay off State public debt

24.6 26.729.1 31.7 34.3 37.2

40

0

20

40

60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GDP (in US$ bn)


Syria – Rising industrial powerUNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2007

Confirmation of the upward trend begun in 2004 (+48% in 2007 compared to 2006)

Trends 2008Newly-created Syrian Investment AgencyANIMA-MIPO 2008: 38 projects amounting to € 1.1bn

Foreign investment welcomed (new law & organisation)The sector energy (oil reserves down)Dynamic banking sector, particularly in the brokerageDamas Stock Exchange scheduled to be inaugurated …Real estate, Gulf-based promoters: Markaz, Aref, Belhasa, Emaar, KIA, Kharafi, Global Investment HouseMany industrial perspectives, often ignored


Turkey – The benefits of EU integrationUNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2007/ 2008 trends

$22bn, in the Top 15 of receiving countriesANIMA-MIPO 2008: 197 projects amounting to €20.2 bn2009: the country wil be severely hit by the crisis

The economic boom continues in several areasProperty, retail industries, finance, construction materials, packingTransport infrastructure, logisticsFor example, new terminal at the Sabiha Gokcen-Istanbul Airport(consortium GMR Infrastructure-Temak-Malaysia Airports)

EnergyMassive investments in electricity, privatisation of distribution networks, oil refineries, etc.

Engineering, automobiles, electronicsThe workshop of Europe attracts newcomers (Tata Motors, Khodro, Chery)Siemens: €1bn to expand or create new factories


Big projects for small countriesPalestine: thanks to the conference on investment whichtook place last spring 2008, the country attracts somesignificant projects:

The Qatari government-owned Diar to create Rawabi, a new USD 350 million West Bank town with local Masar Company and the support of the Portland Fund

US-based IT group to invest USD 10 mln in venture capital investments in technological projects in Palestine

2009 very uncertain due to the critical geopolitical situation

Cyprus and Malta reaping the fruits of their integrationinto the EU

Cyprus for example received $2bn of FDI in 2007 (€1.1 bn in 2008)


Conclusion… and Invest in Med?


A few words about Invest in MedThe objectives

To develop sustainable partnerships on the north and south rims of the Mediterranean

Euro-Med enterprises working in south-north or south-south synergy

To boost FDI and trade flows into the Mediterranean region

by making the Mediterranean an attractive and safe destination for world business

To implement a new model of co-operative economic networking between

EU and Mediterranean public or private organisations Stakeholders concerned by business development


A project led by a wide MedAlliance=Governement + Business+ Major alliesJoining forces to develop the Mediterranean


Target sectors1. Textile 2. ICT - information and communication technologies3. Agrifood4. Mechanical industries, electronics, automotive industry 5. Heavy & energy-consuming industries 6. Services to companies and industrial sub-contracting

7. Vocational training8. Bank, finance, insurance 9. Infrastructure, transport, logistics 10. Energy 11. Social housing, urban regeneration 12. Water and utilities13. Great distribution 14. Health and drugs15. Intelligent tourism


Example of initiative (fictitious)

MedGenericsThe ambition: transform Euromed into the #1 platform for generic drugs within 5 years6 types of instruments to be used over 12 monthsLeader: UTICAPartners: CCI Beirut and Milan, Confindustria, MaltaEnterprise, GAFI

Med BtoB Forum in the fringes of World Generics Symposium, 2009

A new offer to the industry: MedGenericsResults achieved

Brochure, video clips, sales arguments etc.

Training for trainers(Lebanon, Egypt): preparing

offers to laboratories interested by the sub-

regional market

Staff exchangeIsrael-Malta

(possible branch for new molecule

in x field)

Initial surveySWOT analysis, data, validate the conceptMed assets (eg. growing market, research, clinical tests etc.)What are the means needed ? The obstacles ? (eg. market entrance, distribution circuits, IP rights)

Technical assistanceto Tunisia (packaging for drugs)

Launch brainstorming workshopMain stakeholders

(eg. Health services, pharma groups, doctors, govts etc.)

Identification of 3 work areas


Why initiatives?inMed aim

We have to develop industrial niches (filières industrielles)which may bring a significant contribution to Euro-Med industrial future: aeronautics, agrifood, ICT, new textile etc.

15 sectors and up to 100 promising sub-sectors (inMed fiche)

Some transversal issues (branding, diaspora, funding etc.)

The strategyWe cannot cover everything

We support winners

We need 10 success stories by 2011

The programme funds a 1st stageSector overview, market research, workshop, matchmaking between partners, networking, communication, PR events etc.


Thank you / Contact us

www.anima.coopwww.invest-in-med.euLaïla Sbiti, [email protected] Bénédict de Saint-Laurent, General [email protected]

Invest and develop business

in the Mediterranean

Documents

Inv InvestmentMap Beirut VE-Short 17-2-2009 · size ~Except energy, petrochemicals, mining, agribusiness, real estate, tourism and some new sectors (ICT, off-shoring) zFew world-level