Introduction to the EPATSand CESAR -- EPATS Synergy

by Maciej Mączka

Source:

Alfred Baron, Krzysztof Piwek, Small aircraft requirements & potential demand, methodology & assumption,

synergy need, INSTITUTE OF AVIATION, Warsaw, 2007

Amsterdam, September 2007

POSSIBLE SYNERGY AREA

FUTURE

AIRCRAFT REQUIREMENTS

AIRCRAFT DESIGNING

SYSTEM ENHANCMENT

EUROPEAN

SMALL AIRCRAFT TRANSPORT

DEMAND ANALYSIS

WHAT IS EPATS?

• Personal air transport system

• driven by personal needs, preference and resources of the population

• improving current transport infrastructure

• with economic efficiency

• and ecological sustainability

• in 20 years time horizon

EPATS fundamentals

• C.a. 2500 landing facilities in Europe

• Uneven existing infrastructure quality (accessibility)

• Single European Sky (SESAR research)

• New techs• Small carrier and private

owner friendly environment

EPATS fundamentals

• Dense network of airports

• especially located in remote regions

• enables filling the communication gap

• in interregional domestic and European transport

c.a. 95% of European population lives in a distace of 40km of the nearest GA ariport

Only 5% of European population lives in a distace of 40km of the nearest HUB

EPATS components

Network of airports

Air Traffic Management

Air carriers organizations

Maintenance, and management companies

Aircraft owners and users associations

Other stakeholders

Piston, turboprop, jet, 4-19-seat a/c

EPATS-SATS difference

• Reduction: ineqaulity of chances, EU regions remoteness, door-to-door travel time

• Increase: accessibility to hi-speed modes for remote European regions

• Vehicle: 4-19-seat piston turboprop and jet aircraft (operating at small regional and local airports)

• Operating: low flow interregional on-demand and scheduled services

• Reduction: door-to-door travel time

• Increase: daily range of activity from large agglomerations

• Vehicle: 4-7-seat, piston and jet aircraft (operating at small and large airports)

• Operating: private or corporate transport system on-demand service

Method and Requirements

• Potential demand method estimation structure:

- Current mobility demand- Indifference curve for modal choice

(car – a/c)- Modal split estimation- Current number and type of a/c

required

• A/c mission requirements parameters:

- via customer choice index formula

• Outside constraints (ATM, environmnt, etc.)

• FP7 recommendations

NUTS Socio-economic data * - inhabitants - GNP - Income distribution

- Time value distribution

NUTS Geographic & transport infrastucture data *

- Surface - Capital coordinates - Roads - Airports data & coordinates - Distances between airports - ATM-ATC

- Accessibility to airports

Inter-NUTS (Interregional) Trips data *

- Nuts generated trips by: reasons modes time value

- Inter-NUTS trips distribution by: distances reasons modes time value 1

* For current year and 2020 forecast. Data sources: ESPON, EUNET, DATELINE, SCENES, EUROSTAT and others 1. Calculated using Gravity Model 2. From statistical data and calculation 3. Travel costs includes transportation cost and accomodation costs

Time travel includes all elements of time from origin to destination 4. Taking the replacement need of existing old business and personal aircraft (above 20 years) into account.

Specific transportation costs (price) and main characteristics of current mode of transport 2

EPATS Aircraft Missions Requirements, Operational Capabilities and forecasted fleet4 2020

EPATS Aircraft Specifications and specific transportation costs

Feasibility study & Research Programme

Current mode of transport / EPATS aircraft indifference cost curves calculation (Trip value of time via distance)

3

mod

mod

)(

)(

aftEpatsAircreCurrent

eCurrentaftEpatsAircrTimeValue TimeTime

CostCostC

From trips distributions and indifference curves evaluate the preferred mode of transport

Calculate the number of EPATS aircraft and operations needed to substitute current mode of transport

If the results is not satisfied change EPATS Aircraft Requirements

Travel time Travel costs

EPATS forecast

• A question to be answered at the end of the project:

How many and what type of aircraft are needed to realize EPATS concept ?

What recommendations can we provide to the FP7 Programme?

Demand forecast assumptions

• Socio-economic data for EU-27, infrastructure data, trip data (Passenger flow estimation is based on ESPON, EUNET, DATELINE, SCENES, EUROSTAT data - using a gravity method)

• Modal split based on minimization of cost by using the generalized cost formula:

(generalized cost = manufacturer price + tax or subsidy + value of time + accommodation cost)

• modal split between car and aircraft in passenger-kilometers• An estimate of number and type of EPATS a/c

• 1 Pass.-km costs level source: - corporate car costs data, - train transport ticket prices, - air carriers = global costs / volume of transport

• costs in respective countries = country specifics or averaged EU values • considering other events and research influencing costs (e.g. CESAR)

Indifference curve

jmj

jjmjm ttrttr

CpoopCpoopctvalue

,,1

,1,, :

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800100

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Indifference curves car/aircraft

Distances [km]

Val

ue o

f tim

e [E

uro/

h]

385.355

18.514

ctvalue2 j

ctvalue3 j

ctvalue4 j

ctvalue5 j

1.7 103215 Lodj

Citation jetEclipseKing AirCirrus

Effect of accomodation costs

VoT:100Eur/h, distnace: 400km, mode choice: Cirrus SR-22, King Air or Eclipse 500

VoT: 7 Eur/h, distnace: 300km, mode choice: car

VoT:100Eur/h, distnace: 1000km, mode choice: Cirrus SR-22, King Air, Eclipse 500 or Cessna Citation

car

area of aircraft choice

Example of possible prognosis for 2020

• Estimated EPATS transport share: c.a. 2% (120bn pkm) of current volume of car travel

• Result could reach:

120 000 aircraft(62%) 75 000 piston

(20%) 25 000 turboprop

(18%) 20 000 jet

Assuming average 1 000 000 pkm per a/c per year

Mission requirements parameters

• number of passenger seats• aircraft speed• aircraft range• take-off and landing characteristics• comfort level• flight conditions• DOC, SFC, Life cycle, maintenance, price,

operational costs

Technical Specification

• crew• configuration• weight• size• propulsion system• performance• control• equipment• avionics• modular construction• etc.

•ACP-1 Single-Engine Piston•ACP-2 Twin-Engine Piston•ACT-1 Single-Engine Turboprop•ACT-2 Twin-Engine Turboprop•ACJ-1 Twin-Engine Very Light

Jet•ACJ-2 Twin-Engine Light Jet

ATM issues

• Airspace structure

• Flow regulations

• Safety

• Flexible use of airspace

• Controlled or not controlled

• Mix with regulated airlines traffic

Conclusions

• Small aircraft transport system in Europe is a chance to improve transport infrastructure (accessibility) at relatively low costs

• GA revitalization in EU-27 needs cooperation and support from ACARE, SESAR, FP7 funding

• EPATS – CESAR synergy is needed

EPATS offer

CESAR - EPATS

Synergy Proposals

• Joint CESAR/EPATS small aircraft requirements (Input for future SRA)

• Research Programmes Proposal to EU Framework Programme• Cooperation within European Personal Air Transport Platforms -

including ESPON(European Spatial Planning and Observatory Network), VIP (Very Light Jet Integration Platform), EGAMA, etc.