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Aalborg University, September October 2005 PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:. Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model. Henrik Lund Aalborg University Denmark. Content: Workshop aproach…!! Development aproach..!!. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Introduction to the Introduction to the EnergyPLAN modelEnergyPLAN model
Henrik Lund Aalborg University
Denmark
Aalborg University, September October Aalborg University, September October 20052005
PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:
Content: Workshop Content: Workshop aproach…!!aproach…!!
Development aproach..!!Development aproach..!!
1. (23 August): Introduction to studies made by the use 1. (23 August): Introduction to studies made by the use of EnergyPLAN. Discussion of participants ideas of PhD of EnergyPLAN. Discussion of participants ideas of PhD projects and potential use of the model.projects and potential use of the model.
2. (30 August): Details inside the model. How does it 2. (30 August): Details inside the model. How does it work? How are the modelling of specific components, work? How are the modelling of specific components, units etc? Discussion of PhD-projects: Strengths and units etc? Discussion of PhD-projects: Strengths and weakness of the model? weakness of the model? – The period between 23 August and 5 September: The period between 23 August and 5 September:
Participants install the model and make familiar with the Participants install the model and make familiar with the model and make som preliminary analyses.model and make som preliminary analyses.
3. (6 September): Discussion of participants analyses. 3. (6 September): Discussion of participants analyses. Results, problems, room for improvements of the Results, problems, room for improvements of the model…!!! Etc..model…!!! Etc..
www.plan.aau.dk/~lundwww.plan.aau.dk/~lund
Download Download EnergyPLANEnergyPLAN
Download Download documentationdocumentation
Links to journal Links to journal articles (results)articles (results)
Links to research Links to research reports (Danish)reports (Danish)
ContentContent
1. The EnergyPLAN model1. The EnergyPLAN model
2. Data and Methodologies2. Data and Methodologies
3. Example: Technical Analysis3. Example: Technical Analysis
4. Example: Market Economical 4. Example: Market Economical AnalysisAnalysis
Electricity Excess Electricity Excess Production Production
Principle Diagram
Small CHP
Steam turbines
Wind
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
MW
Demand
Excess
Reference excess Reference excess productionproduction
Energy 21 (Government Energy Plan 1995)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2015 2030
TW
h
Wind CHP Condensation Demand Heat Pump Surplus
The EnergyPLAN ModelThe EnergyPLAN Model
Energy System Analysis ModelEnergy System Analysis Model
- Excel~Visual Basic~Delphi Pascal- Excel~Visual Basic~Delphi Pascal
- Main focus: Compare different - Main focus: Compare different regulation systems ability to regulation systems ability to integrate and trade RES (Wind)integrate and trade RES (Wind)
- Simplified modelling of energy - Simplified modelling of energy system. system.
Windows program:Windows program:
EnergyPLAN Model 6.0EnergyPLAN Model 6.0
DemandsFixed electricityFlexible electricity District Heating
Capacities & EfficienciesCHP, Power plant,Heat Pump, BoilerHeat Storage
RESWind and PVCapacities (MW)Distribution FactorSolar Thermal and CSHP (TWh/year)
RegulationMarket prisesMultiplication factorAddition factor Depend factorMarginal productionCost (Import, export)Stabilisation demands
Distribution Data:
Market PricesElectricity District H. Wind
Regulation strategy:1. Meeting heat demand2. Meeting both heat and electricity demand Electricity Market Strategy:Import/export optimisation Critical surplus production:• reducing wind, • replacing CHP with boiler or heat pump• Electric heating and/or Bypass
Results:(Annual, monthly and hour by hour values)
•Heat productions•Electricity production•Electricity import export•Forced electricity surplus production
•Fuel consumption
•Payments from import/export
•CO2 emissions
•Share of RES
Input Output
Solar Industrial CHP Photo Voltaic
FuelTypes of fuelCO2 emission factors Fuel prices
Results:Results:
EnergyPLAN modelEnergyPLAN model
ElectricityElectricity HeatHeat
TechnicalTechnical
MarketMarket
EnergyEnergy System System
WindPower
Fuel
Power Plant
CHP unitCSHP unit
BoilerDH-boiler
HeatPump
HeatStorage
HeatDemand
ElectricityDemand
ImportExport
TransportFlexible
PhotoVoltaic
SolarThermal
EnergyEnergy System 6.2 System 6.2WindPower
Fuel
Power Plant
CHP unitCSHP unit
BoilerDH-boiler
HeatPump
HeatStorage
HeatDemand
ElectricityDemand
ImportExport
TransportFlexible
PhotoVoltaic
SolarThermal
Electro-lyser
Turbine
WaterStorage
PumpWaveEnergy
DESIRE projectDESIRE project
Will include:Will include:
Nuclear power..Nuclear power..
Hydro Power…Hydro Power…
ContentContent
1. The EnergyPLAN model1. The EnergyPLAN model
2. Data and Methodologies2. Data and Methodologies
3. Example: Technical Analysis3. Example: Technical Analysis
4. Example: Market Economical 4. Example: Market Economical AnalysisAnalysis
MethodologyMethodology
Inputs:Inputs:- Reference energy system (Danish CHP)Reference energy system (Danish CHP)- Different share of different RESDifferent share of different RES
Results:Results:- Rate of excess electricity productionRate of excess electricity production- Ability to decrease CO2 emissionAbility to decrease CO2 emission- Ability to exploit exchange on external Ability to exploit exchange on external
electricity marketselectricity markets
Example of ResultsExample of Results::
Excess Electricity ProductionWith and without ancillery service restrictions
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind produktion (TWh)
Exc
ess
pro
du
ctio
n (
TW
h)
With
Without
Wind energyWind energy
Input:Input: Data from total Data from total
productions of productions of wind turbines in wind turbines in the TSO Eltra area the TSO Eltra area (West Denmark).(West Denmark).
Wind production Eltra 1996 (2042 MWh pr MW)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
MW
h/h
Wind production Eltra 2000 (2083 MWh pr MW)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
MW
h/h
Wind production Eltra 2001 (1964 MWh pr MW)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
MW
h/h
Wind powerWind power
Onshore Wind PowerExcess Electricity Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind produktion (TWh)
Exc
ess
pro
du
ctio
n (
TW
h)
Eltra 1996
Eltra 2000
Eltra 2001
Photo voltaicPhoto voltaic
Data from the Data from the Danish Sol300 Danish Sol300 project (Total 267 project (Total 267 installations, app. installations, app. 100 included in 100 included in the data basethe data base
Additional Additional “synthetic data” “synthetic data” from Test from Test Reference YearReference Year
PV production Sol300 2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
kWh
/h
PV production Sol300 2002
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
kWh
/h
Photo VoltaicPhoto Voltaic
Photo VoltaicExcess Electricity Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Photo Voltaic produktion (TWh)
Exc
ess
pro
du
ctio
n (
TW
h)
Sol300 2002
Sol300 2001
TRY syntetic
Wave PowerWave Power
Calculated from Calculated from measurements of measurements of Wave height and Wave height and periods in the periods in the North SeaNorth Sea
5 percent 5 percent efficiency efficiency
Max installed Max installed capacitycapacity
Wave Power estimated year 1999
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
kW
h/h
pr.
m w
av
e f
ron
t
Wave Power estimated year 2001
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours
kW
h/h
pr.
m w
av
e f
ron
t
Photo VoltaicPhoto Voltaic
Wave PowerExcess Electricity Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Photo Voltaic produktion (TWh)
Exc
ess
pro
du
ctio
n (
TW
h)
Wave 2001
Wave 1999
Comparison of resultsComparison of results
Different Renewable Energy SourcesExcess Electricity Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
RES produktion (TWh)
Exc
ess
pro
du
ctio
n (
TW
h)
PV 2001
Wave 2001
Wind 2001
ContentContent
1. The EnergyPLAN model1. The EnergyPLAN model
2. Data and Methodologies2. Data and Methodologies
3. Example: Technical Analysis3. Example: Technical Analysis
4. Example: Market Economical 4. Example: Market Economical AnalysisAnalysis
Electricity Excess Electricity Excess Production Production
Principle Diagram
Small CHP
Steam turbines
Wind
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
MW
Demand
Excess
Reference excess Reference excess productionproduction
Energy 21 (Government Energy Plan 1995)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2015 2030
TW
h
Wind CHP Condensation Demand Heat Pump Surplus
ReferenceReferenceÅr 2030År 2030
Production: July Week
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1
13
25
37
49
61
73
85
97
109
121
133
145
157
Hours
MW
PP
CHP
CSHP
Wind
Production: October Week
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1
13
25
37
49
61
73
85
97
109
121
133
145
157
Hours
MW
PP
CHP
CSHP
Wind
Demand: January Week
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1
12
23
34
45
56
67
78
89
10
0
111
12
2
13
3
14
4
15
5
16
6
Hours
MW
Export
Heat Pump
Transport
Consumer
Production: January Week
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1
14
27
40
53
66
79
92
105
118
131
144
157
Hours
MW
PP
CHP
CSHP
Wind
Demand: April Week
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
10
1
111
12
1
13
1
14
1
15
1
16
1
Hours
MW
Export
Heat Pump
Transport
Consumer
Production: April Week
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1
14
27
40
53
66
79
92
105
118
131
144
157
Hours
MW
PP
CHP
CSHP
Wind
Demand: July Week
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
10
1
111
12
1
13
1
14
1
15
1
16
1
Hours
MW
Export
Heat Pump
Transport
Consumer
Production: July Week
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1
14
27
40
53
66
79
92
105
118
131
144
157
Hours
MW
PP
CHP
CSHP
Wind
Demand: October Week
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
10
1
111
12
1
13
1
14
1
15
1
16
1
Hours
MW
Export
Heat Pump
Transport
Consumer
Production: October Week
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1
14
27
40
53
66
79
92
105
118
131
144
157
HoursM
W
PP
CHP
CSHP
Wind
Different Energy SystemsDifferent Energy SystemsSurplus electrcicty production(Percent of electrcicty demand)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80 100
Wind input (per cent)
SE
P (
per
cen
t)
Reference
Surplus electrcicty production(Percent of electrcicty demand)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80 100
Wind input (per cent)
SE
P (
per
cen
t)
Reference
Ref50KV
RefTrans
Electricity Balance and Electricity Balance and Grid StabilityGrid Stability
DG (Distributed Generation)
RES (Renewable
Energy Sources)
Centralised CHPand
Power Plants
Demand0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Active ComponentsNon Active Components
System 1:System 1:Activating DG CHP-unitsActivating DG CHP-units
DG (Distributed Generation)
RES (Renewable
Energy Sources)
Centralised CHPand
Power PlantsDemand
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Active ComponentsNon Active Components
System 2: System 2: CHP-units and Heat PumpsCHP-units and Heat Pumps
DG (Distributed Generation)
RES (Renewable
Energy Sources)
Centralised CHPand
Power PlantsDemand
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Active ComponentsNon Active Components
Heat Pumps
System 3: Activating System 3: Activating RES via additional demandRES via additional demand
DG (Distributed Generation)
RES (Renewable
Energy Sources)
Centralised CHPand
Power Plants
Demand0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Active ComponentsNon Active Components
Heat Pumps
Wind Power
Electricityfor
Transport
Principle results of Principle results of technical analysestechnical analyses
Surplus Electricity ProductionIncluding grid-stbilisation
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80 100Wind power per cent
Per
cen
t
Ref
DKVreg
+HPreg
Trans
ElectricityDemand
41,1 TWh
17,7 TWh
ExcessElectricity8,4 TWh
Coal26.5 TWh
Oil70,9 TWh
Biomass34,5 TWh
Natural Gas68,4 TWh
FuelTotal200,3TWh
31,8 TWh
39,2 TWh
District HeatingGrid loss
25 % HeatDemand
62,9 TWh
Transport50,7 TWh
RefineryEtc.
17,4 TWh
CHP andPower plants
WindPower
41,1 TWh
31,9 TWh
31,0 TWh
17,4 TWh
50,7TWh
39,9TWh
92,3TWh
Household &Industry
Danish Reference 2020
ElectricityDemand
37,0 TWh
62,3 TWh
Biomass49,4 TWh
FuelTotal49,4TWh
14,7 TWh
53,5 TWh
District HeatingGrid loss
25 % HeatDemand
56,8 TWh
Transport(50,7 TWh)equvalent
CHP, HP andPower plants
WindPower
37,0 TWh
42,8 TWh
14,0 TWh18,0 TWh
31,4TWh
Household &Industry
Danish Alternative 20?0
Solar thermal2,1 TWh
PhotoVoltaic
17,8 TWh
H2
H2Electrolyser
ContentContent
1. The EnergyPLAN model1. The EnergyPLAN model
2. Data and Methodologies2. Data and Methodologies
3. Example: Technical Analysis3. Example: Technical Analysis
4. Example: Market Economical 4. Example: Market Economical AnalysisAnalysis
Modelling of NordPool Modelling of NordPool
- Standard system price hour by hour - Standard system price hour by hour distribution (based on recent years)distribution (based on recent years)
- Construction of “Wet” “Dry” and - Construction of “Wet” “Dry” and “Normal” years (Hydro in Norway)“Normal” years (Hydro in Norway)
- Modelling of influence for DK trade and - Modelling of influence for DK trade and splitting in price areas due to bottle-splitting in price areas due to bottle-neck in transmissionneck in transmission
- Modelling of influence from Trade on the - Modelling of influence from Trade on the German Boarder.German Boarder.
Reference regulation Reference regulation systemsystem
(CO2 Price = 100 DKK/t)(CO2 Price = 100 DKK/t)
Trade income (Compared to "No trade", "No wind")
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Input (TWh)
Mil
ion
DK
K Dry-year
Normal
Wet-year
Average
Wind Power Wind Power Production Production
CostsCosts
220 220 DKK/MWhDKK/MWh
Trade income (Incl. Wind production costs)
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind input (TWh)
Mil
ion
DK
K
CO2=100 kr/t
Marginal trade income and wind production costs
0
100
200
300
400
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind input (TWh)
DK
K/M
Wh
Income
Cost
Different Production Costs Different Production Costs and CO2 Pricesand CO2 Prices
Marginal trade income and wind production costs
0
100
200
300
400
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind input (TWh)
DK
K/M
Wh
100 kr/t CO2
High Cost
Middle
Low Cost
250 kr/t CO2
0 kr/t CO2
Feasibility of Alternative Feasibility of Alternative Regulation SystemsRegulation Systems
Trade Income: Alternative Regulation Systems
-2000
-1000
0
1000
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Input (TWh)
Mil
ion
DK
K Reference
350 MW HP
CHPregB
CHPregBnet
Feasibility of Alternative Feasibility of Alternative Regulation SystemsRegulation Systems
Marginal trade income
150
200
250
300
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Wind Input (TWh)
Mio
lio
n D
KK Reference
350 MW HP
CHPregB
CHPregBnet
Costs
Conclusions:Conclusions:
If wind production exceeds 5 TWh (equal to 20%) investments in CHP regulation and Heat Pumps are feasible.
Such investments at the same time makes Such investments at the same time makes wind power more feasible. For production wind power more feasible. For production costs of 220 DKK/MWh and CO2-prices of costs of 220 DKK/MWh and CO2-prices of 100 DKK/t the feasibility of wind power 100 DKK/t the feasibility of wind power raises from 6 TWh in the reference system raises from 6 TWh in the reference system to 11 TWh in the “Heat Pump” system.to 11 TWh in the “Heat Pump” system.
Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis
Increase in Heat Pump CostsIncrease in Heat Pump Costs Variations in CO2 paymentVariations in CO2 payment Change in Wind Power costsChange in Wind Power costs Change in fuel costsChange in fuel costs Change in CO2 influence on NordpoolChange in CO2 influence on Nordpool Change in Nordpool average priceChange in Nordpool average price Change in import/export to GermanyChange in import/export to Germany Change in Nordpool price variationsChange in Nordpool price variations
Only small changes in the Only small changes in the main resultsmain results
Trade Income: Alternative Regulation Systems
-2000
-1000
0
1000
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Input (TWh)
Mil
ion
DK
K Reference
350 MW HP
CHPregB
CHPregBnet Marginal trade income
150
200
250
300
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Wind Input (TWh)
Mio
lio
n D
KK Reference
350 MW HP
CHPregB
CHPregBnet
Costs
Introduction to the Introduction to the EnergyPLAN modelEnergyPLAN model
Henrik Lund Aalborg University
Denmark
Aalborg University, September October Aalborg University, September October 20052005
PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I: