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Non-linear responses of vegetation to orbital forcing across the temperate to tropical transition in South America 4th PAGES Open Science Meeting The Past: A Compass for Future Earth 14th February 2013 K.D. Bennett Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology Queen's University Belfast Northern Ireland

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Non-linear responses of vegetation to orbital forcing across the temperate to tropical transition in South America 4th PAGES Open Science Meeting The Past: A Compass for Future Earth 14th February 2013 K.D. Bennett Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology Queen's University Belfast - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Introduction

Non-linear responses of vegetation to orbital forcing across the temperate to tropical transition

in South America

4th PAGES Open Science MeetingThe Past: A Compass for Future Earth

14th February 2013

K.D. Bennett

Geography, Archaeology and PalaeoecologyQueen's University Belfast

Northern Ireland

Page 2: Introduction

Introduction

How have tropical climates changed over the late Cenozoic?

How did organisms respond?

What are the implications?

'Stability' v ‘change’ as drivers of speciation

Two big questions for global biodiversity are:1. Why do we have millions of eukaryote species?2. Why are most of them at low latitudes?

Page 3: Introduction

J. Zachos, M. Pagani, L. Sloan, E. Thomas, and K. Billups. Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present. Science, 292:686-693, 2001.

Cenozoic global temperature trends

Overall an erratic cooling, accelerating towards the present, with higher amplitude fluctuations

Page 4: Introduction

A. Berger. Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the earth's orbital elements. Quaternary Research, 9:139-167, 1978.

Latitudinal variation in insolation 250-0ka BP

High latitude: 40-kyr cycle dominant

Low latitude: 20-kyr cycle dominant

In phase

Out of phaseShould lead us to expect complex patterns of change by latitude

Page 5: Introduction

P. Braconnot, B. Otto-Bliesner, S. Harrison, S. Joussaume, J.-Y. Peterchmitt, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. Crucifix, E. Driesschaert, T. Fichefet, C. D. Hewitt, M. Kageyama, A. Kitoh, A. Laîné, M.-F. Loutre, O. Marti, U. Merkel, G. Ramstein, P. Valdes, S. L. Weber, Y. Yu, and Y. Zhao. Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum - Part 1: experiments and large-scale features. Climate of the Past, 3:261-277, 2007.

LGM versus modern climates

Annual temp Precipitation

T: differences large at high latitude; small at low latitude, as now or cooler everywhere

P: variable, some large differences at low latitude, both drier and wetter

Page 6: Introduction

W. Wüster, J. E. Ferguson, J. A. Quijada-Mascareñas, C. E. Pook, M. da Graça Salomão, and R. S. Thorpe. Tracing an invasion: landbridges, refugia, and the phylogeography of the Neotropical rattlesnake (Serpentes: Viperidae: Crotalus durissus). Molecular Ecology, 14:1095-1108, 2005.

Phylogenetic data: Neotropical rattlesnakes

Chronology of dispersal events in Crotalus durissus: gradual spread over 2 Myr

1.85 Ma

1.54 Ma

1.08 Ma

Present

Page 7: Introduction

G. Hewitt. The genetic legacy of the Quaternary ice ages. Nature, 405:907–913, 2000.

Phylogenetic data: mid-high latitude

Spread is a late Quaternary phenomenon

Page 8: Introduction

Age(Myr)

1

2

3

0

Alnus

Quercus

Trees Shrubs

Gradual spread of Alnus and Quercus into S America

Lower amplitude fluctuations before 2 Ma

Palaeoecological data: pollen from High plain of Bogotà

H. Hooghiemstra. Quaternary and upper-Pliocene glaciations and forest development in the tropical Andes: evidence from a long high-resolution pollen record from the sedimentary basin of Bogotá, Colombia. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 72:11-26, 1989.

Page 9: Introduction

The last 16 kyr in southernmost Chile 53.6ºS

S. L. Fontana and K. D. Bennett. Postglacial vegetation dynamics of western Tierra del Fuego. The Holocene 22: 1337-1350, 2012.

10 ka

Laguna Ballena

Forest (Nothofagus)

10 ka10 ka

Shrubs and herbs

Page 10: Introduction

The last 16 kyr in south-eastern Brazil 29.5ºS

V. Jeske-Pieruschka and H. Behling. Palaeoenvironmental history of the São Francisco de Paula region in southern Brazil during the late Quaternary inferred from the Rinc Tao das Cabritas core. The Holocene 22: 1251-1262, 2012.

2.9 ka

Rincão das Cabritas

Forest (Nothofagus)

Herbs

Page 11: Introduction

Age 14C yr BP

Latit

ude

Timing of major vegetation change by latitude in South America

ca 10 ka

Page 12: Introduction

Quaternary response: mid- and high- latitudes

Major climatic changes (and ice-sheets): high amplitude response to orbital forcing

Pattern of expansion and contraction of forest on 40-kyr (early Quaternary) to 100-kyr timescales (late Quaternary)

Present patterns completely dominated by the last oscillation (since 100 ka), most change ca 10-14 ka

Page 13: Introduction

Tertiary: hot (and wet?), ‘stable’

Late Quaternary: 100-kyr oscillation superimposed from northern ice-sheets;

Early Quaternary: cooling, increasing amplitude 20-kyr oscillations

Present patterns result from a combination of these three layers: none is strong enough to dominate continuously

All periodicities: variable amplitude climate, especially precipitation, response to orbital forcing

gradual spread

diversification

biome shifts

Quaternary response: low latitudes

Page 14: Introduction

Chaotic behaviour of environmental change at low latitudes

Characteristics of chaotic systems:

Deterministic (‘butterfly effect’)

Sensitive to initial conditions

Self-similarity

Unpredictable

Cannot rewind

Three levels:

1. Climate system itself2. Response of ecosystems to climate change3. Organism interactions

Page 15: Introduction

Tropical biodiversity - a necessarily complex model

Periodicities of climate change vary over time

Amplitudes of climate change are relatively small and variable

Response of vegetation highly variable and not in proportion to the forcing climate change (‘non-linear’)

Outcomes:1. Major changes in vegetation happen unpredictably and at a wide range of times2. Lineage splitting independent of these changes

No process is strong enough to dominate

Page 16: Introduction

Conclusions: consequences

The higher diversity of tropical ecosystems is because of this stability, after all

What do we mean by ‘stable’ climate? Equatorial climates of the Quaternary may be as stable as climate can ever be

Biodiversity is, non-linearly:1. Globally, a function of time (since last mass extinction);2. Regionally, a function of (relative) ‘stability’;3. Everything else: the detail.

Processes of developing biodiversity are complex, only weakly connected to environmental change

Page 17: Introduction

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