Indiana Population Projectionsby County, 2015 to 2050. Metro Areas Drive Indiana’s Growth. Indiana Population Projections. Source:Indiana Business Research Center • The five fastest-growing

Indiana Population Projections

2018

Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University

Key Findings


• Indiana will add 660,000 residents between 2015 and 2050—a 10 percent increase

• Population will climb from 6.61 million to 7.27 million

• Indiana will grow older, with the share of the Hoosier population age 65+ jumping from 14.6 percent to 20.9 percent

• A handful of metro areas will drive Indiana’s growth

• Indy metro will add 520,000 residents (26 percent increase)

• Lafayette, Elkhart, Bloomington and Ft. Wayne metros will each grow by at least 15 percent

• 59 of Indiana’s 92 counties projected to lose population over next 35 years

Projected Change in Indiana’s Population, 2010 to 2050

Population Projections

Indiana Population ProjectionsSource: Indiana Business Research Center; U.S. Census Bureau

122,178 125,805

150,979

125,328

91,743

65,079

49,820 51,057

2010-2015(actual)

2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050

Popu

latio

n ch

ange

Projections show a rebound in population gains next decade before growth slows again in the 2030s and 2040s

Slower Growth


• Indiana’s average annual growth:• 1990 to 2000 – 53,600 residents per year• 2000 to 2010 – 40,300 per year• 2010 to 2017 – 25,300 per year

184230

308

189

506

728

533

295

54

536

403

255 276

157101

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Popu

latio

n ch

ange

(in

thou

sand

s)

Indiana’s Population Growth by Decade, 1900 to 2050

Source: Indiana Business Research Center; U.S. Census Bureau

• Slow growth in near term triggered by Great Recession

• Decline in fertility rates—if pre-recession fertility rates held constant, Indiana would have 70k to 75k more births between 2010 and 2020

• Average annual net migration dropped from 9,200 per year last decade to 2,300 per year between 2010 and 2017

• Longer term– aging population will lead to decline in natural increase

Indiana’s Components of Population Change, 1950 to 2050

Why Slower Growth

Indiana Population ProjectionsSource: Indiana Business Research Center; U.S. Census Bureau; University of Wisconsin

665

546469

315361

312228 224

1035163

-15

-172-261

17692

20 52 54 50

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

Thou

sand

s

NaturalIncrease

Net Migration

Actual Projected

Projected Share of Total Population by Age Group, 2015 to 2050

Aging Population

Indiana Population ProjectionsSource: Indiana Business Research Center

One out of every five Hoosiers will be age 65 or older by 2030

Ages 0-14

Ages 15-24

Ages 25-44

Ages 45-64

Ages 65+

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Percent Change in Population, 2010 to 2040

Projection Comparisons

Indiana Population ProjectionsSource: Indiana Business Research Center; Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, University of Virginia

10.0%9.2%

1.5%

-0.1%-1.0%

10.6%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Indiana Kentucky Ohio Michigan Illinois

UVA IBRC

University of Virginia publishes projections for states• IBRC projects stronger growth for Indiana than UVA• Indiana will grow at a faster pace than its neighbors

Projected Population Change by County, 2015 to 2050 Metro Areas Drive

Indiana’s Growth


• The five fastest-growing communities will all be Indy-area suburban counties

• The Indy metro’s share of the total population will jump from 30 percent in 2015 to nearly 35 percent in 2050

• 59 of Indiana’s 92 counties expected to lose population

Percent Change in Population by Metro Area, 2010 to 2050

Metro Areas Drive Indiana’s Growth


-10.1%

-6.8%-6.5%

-5.4%

-4.9%

0.1%

0.9%

2.0%

5.6%

12.6%

14.2%

15.3%

18.9%

20.6%

21.9%

26.2%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Kokomo

Muncie

Non Metro Counties

Terre Haute

Michigan City-La Porte

Cincinnati (part)

South Bend-Mishawaka

Gary

Evansville (part)

Louisville (part)

Columbus

Fort Wayne

Bloomington

Elkhart-Goshen

Lafayette-West Lafayette

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson

Projected Population Change by County Type, 2010 to 2050

Metro Areas Drive Indiana’s Growth


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Popu

latio

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ange

Metropolitan (44 counties)

Micropolitan (25 counties)

Rural (23 counties)

As a group, Indiana’s metro counties will grow by 15 percent by 2050. Micropolitan counties will decline by 6 percent and rural counties will slip by 9 percent.

Components of Population Change for Indiana’s Micropolitan Counties, 1950 to 2050

Drivers of Population Change


Source: Indiana Business Research Center; U.S. Census Bureau; University of Wisconsin

-30-22 -20

-55

15

-26 -26 -20 -15 -15

104

8373

46 4534

16 16

-6 -12

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

Thou

sand

s

Net Migration

Natural Increase

Actual Projected

Indiana’s micropolitan counties, as a group, are projected to have a natural decrease of the population in the 2030s and 2040s.

Components of Population Change for Indiana’s Rural Counties, 1950 to 2050

Drivers of Population Change


Source: Indiana Business Research Center; U.S. Census Bureau; University of Wisconsin

-37

-17

7

-26

7

-10-17

-8 -8 -7

45

30 28

16 1913

6 4

-7 -9

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

Thou

sand

s

Net Migration

Natural Increase

Actual Projected

Indiana’s rural counties also expected to see a natural decrease in the 2030s and 2040s.


Drivers of Population Change: Net Migration

• 63 of Indiana’s 92 counties are expected to have a net out-migration between 2015 and 2025

• However, Indiana as a whole is projected to have a net inflow of roughly 42,000 residents over this period.

• The Indy metro area alone is expected to have a net in-migration of 67,000 residents between 2015 and 2025


Drivers of Population Change: Natural Increase

• A growing number of counties will have a natural decrease of the population over the next 35 years

• Between 2015 and 2025, 31 counties will have a natural decrease. This number could jump to 71 counties by 2050.

• However, Indiana will maintain a natural increase over the next 35 years.

Projected Population Change By Age Group and County Type, 2015 to 2035

Aging Population


As a group, micropolitan and rural counties are expected to have declines in each age group over the next two decades except for 65+

8%

-1%

7%

-4%

57%

-1%

-13%

-5%

-18%

39%

-5%

-15%

-7%

-19%

36%

0 to 14 15 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65+

Perc

ent C

hang

e

Age Group

Metropolitan Area Counties (44 counties)

Micropolitan Counties (25 counties)

Rural Counties (23 counties)

Projection Median Age of Population by County Type

Aging Population


37.636.8

39.9

41.1

39.839.1

41.9

43.3

39.939.4

41.7

43.2

Indiana Metro Areas Micropoliton Counties Rural Counties

Med

ian

Age

2015 2035 2050

Documents

Indiana Population Projectionsby County, 2015 to 2050. Metro Areas Drive Indiana’s Growth. Indiana Population Projections. Source:Indiana Business Research Center • The five fastest-growing