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Impact of “The Blob” and “El Niño” warming phenomena in the SW Baja California peninsula: study case of Bahia Magdalena
María del Carmen Jiménez-Quiroz, Rafael Cervantes-Duarte, René Funes-Rodríguez, Sofía Alida Barón-Campis, Felipe de Jesús García-Romero, Sergio Hernández-Trujillo, David Uriel Hernández-Becerril, Rogelio González-Armas, Raúl Martell, Sergio Cerdeira-Estrada, José Ignacio Fernández-Méndez, Luis Vicente González-Ania, Mario Vásquez-Ortiz & Francisco Javier Barrón-Barraza.
Biom
asa p
rome
dio zo
oplan
cton (
ml L-1
)
Índic
e Mult
ivaria
do E
l Niño
(MEI
)
a)
b)
c)
d)
Bahía Magdalena
• The most important coastal lagoon of BCS • Transitional zone: temperate-tropical
• High biological richness • Fisheries and aquaculture uses • Atypical warming since 2014
The Blob 2013/2015 El Niño 2015/16 2015-2017 The warmest years since 1880
Objective
To determine the effect of the atypical warming on environment (temperature, salinity, nutrients) and phyto and zooplankton communities How the ecosystem resilience has been affected?
Topics • NE Pacific characteristics • Upwelling phenology • Temperature, salinity and density • Inorganic Nutrients • Phytoplankton community structure • Zooplankton biomass and mortality (2015) • Ecosystem resilience
Samples collected during neap tides (1 day per month)
Jan 2015 to Dec 2017 CTD Inorganic Nutrients Chlorophyll-a Phytoplankton: Density,
species richness and diversity index
Zooplankton: biomass and mortality
Fluorescence of chla (MODIS-Aqua) daily composite imagery
Cumulative Upwelling Index PFEL-NOAA
Methods
Sampling station
NE Pacific characteristics
• Warming since 2010 • The Blob Oct 2013- May 2015 • El Niño March 2015-May/June
2016 • La Niña Oct 2016- March 2017 • ENSO neutral April 2017- Oct 2017 • California current weaker than
normal • 2015-2017 -The three warmest
years since 1880 The Blob
ENSO +-
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
CUI
Julian day
2014 20151967-2010 20162017
Upwelling phenology
Downwelling
Spring US
US Upwelling season
Spring US Days UI>100 (days)
Normal (1967-2010)
1/March-28/June 55
2015 23/March-14/June 18
2016 02/March-15/June 31
2017 14/March-07/July 55
10
15
20
25
30
35
ene-14 jul-14 ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17
Tem
pera
tura
sup
erfic
ial (
°C)
Mín-Máx prom Min Man sin zc Max Man sin zcMin. Mad Max. Mad Min. i.s.Max. i.s.
Satellite (monthly images) and in situ measures
Temperature
T° MODIS Aqua night and day images T° in situ Monthly extreme values were compared with Lluch-Belda’1 (2000) data (grey stripe)
2014 y 2015 Anomalies were between +2 y + 5°C 2016 y 2017, values near to average, but the air temperature continues higher than normal.
MA Night MA Day In situ
Temperature, salinity and density were measured at the lagoon mouth (E7) Temperature: temperate and warm seasons 2015 > T° and S ‰ (warm season); < Density 2016: <S ‰ (warm season) 2017 < T° and > Density (temperate season)
T°
S ‰
Density
2015 2016 2017
E7
Sampling station 7 (lagoon mouth): Advection of subsurface water
Feb15 May15 Sep15 Dec15 Jun16 Aug16 Oct 16 Dec16 Feb17 Apr17 Jun17 Sep17 Nov17
Temp (°C)
NH4 (µM l-1)
NO3+NO2 (µM l-1)
PO4 (µM l-1)
SiO4 (µM l-1)
Chl-a (mg m-3)
Sat. O2(%)
S M B
S M B
S M B
S M B
S M B
S M B
S M B
Upwelling Upwelling Upwelling
E7
11
223
3
4
4
4
5
5
56
6
677
7
8
8
9
9
11
22
33
44
4
55
5 66
6
7 7
78
8
89
1
1
2
2
33
T°NH4
NO3+NO2
NO2NO3
PO4SO4
ChlaO2
-4
-2
0
2
4
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
F2 (1
3.91
%)
F1 (47.36 %)
Biplot (ejes F1 y F2: 61.27 %)
S‰2017
Cluster Analysis
1
1
2
233
4
44
5
5
5
6
6
6
8
8
8
9
9
11
2
2
3
3
4
45
5
5
66
6
7 77
8
8
8
9
9
11
2
2
3
3
4
4
T°
S‰NH4
NO3+NO2
NO2
NO3
PO4
SO4
Chla
O2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
F2 (1
8.08
%)
F1 (25.28 %)
Biplot (ejes F1 y F2: 43.36 %) PCA
2015
E1E7E6E8E4E5E9E2E3
0.97904390.98404390.98904390.99404390.9990439
Similarity
2015
E2E4E1E5E3E9E8E6E7
0.97847860.98347860.98847860.99347860.9984786
Similarity
2017
Chlorophyll-a Abundance phyto/chla E6 r2=0.45; n=22
1/14
/15
2/12
/15
3/13
/15
4/23
/15
5/27
/15
6/25
/15
7/23
/15
8/25
/15
9/23
/15
10/2
0/15
11/1
9/15
12/3
/15
1/1/
162/
1/16
3/1/
164/
3/16
5/12
/16
6/15
/16
7/7/
168/
13/1
69/
8/16
10/1
2/16
11/9
/16
12/8
/16
1/19
/17
2/17
/17
3/24
/17
4/20
/17
5/25
/17
6/15
/17
8/1/
17-5
0
5
10
15
20
2535
40
45
50
Clor
ofila
-a (m
g m
-3)
clorofi la s Outliers Extremes clorofila f Outliers Extremes
HAB Ene. Mar Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dic.
Mes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Clo
rofil
a m
edid
a in
situ
(m
g m
-3 )
Median 25%-75% 10%-90%
Feb.
Ene. Feb. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dic.
mes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Clo
rofil
a M
OD
IS-A
qua
(mg
m -3
)
Median 25%-75% 10%-90%
In situ CICIMAR MODIS-Aqua CONABIO SATMO
2015-2017
2002-2013
Est. CICIMAR Boca L1, M1 y M2
2006-2011
Seasonal pattern
AB AB
Fluorescence-chla [chla < 4 mg m-3] (Blondeau-Patissier et al., 2014)
MODIS-Aqua; Giovanni-NASA Res. 4 km, monthly composites
2014-2017 Negative anomalies Seasonal pattern varied among years Differences with chla patterns probably were due to species composition
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
ene-14 jul-14 ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17
FLH
(Ano
mal
ies)
AB: Algae bloom HAB: Harmful algae bloom
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
ene-14 jul-14 ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17
Clor
ofila
-a E
7s
FLH
Mínimo Máximo prom Chla E7s
AB AB
AB
HAB
E6
E9
2015: Eucampia zodiacus
2016: Ditylum brightwellii, Nitzschia sp., Cylindrotheca closterium
2017: Rhizosolenia sp., Guinardia sp. HAB: gill damages of S. lalandi juveniles Shannon-Weiner Index 1-3 2015: > July 2016: > July, depth intermediate 2017: > April, July, surface
Algae Blooms 0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000Nan. s/ID
Dictyochophyceae
Dinophyceae
Bacillariophyceae
Cyanophyceae
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
ene-
15
abr-
15
jul-1
5
oct-
15
ene-
16
abr-
16
jul-1
6
oct-
16
ene-
17
abr-
17
jul-1
7
oct-
17
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17BA
Density > 1x106
cells l-1
2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan. Feb. Mar Apr. May Jun Jul Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Dead
Zoo
plan
kton
(%)
Months
E7 E6 E2
Zooplankton biomass and mortality (2015)
DI
Grey band: IQ distance
• Low Bio-volume of biomass • Seasonal pattern on 2016
and 2017 • 2015: 100 % Zooplankton
dead at lagoon mouth
2015
Near to mouth
Weak Upwelling since Aug ust 1997 Strong Upwellling 1998 (<PDO since March)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
2014
2015
1967-2010
1982
1983
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
2014
2015
1967-2010
1997
1998
Weak Upwelling on 1982; they intensified since 4th week of April 1983 (PDO> 1)
Índi
ce A
cum
ulad
o de
Bak
un
Índi
ce A
cum
ulad
o de
Bak
un
2015 (warmer during winter and autumn)
Temperature and Upwellling
Zoop
lank
ton
biom
ass
Zooplankton Biomass diminished abruptly 1997/98 and 2015/16 Seasonal pattern on 1997, scarce biomass 2015: Change of seasonal pattern
What happened on 1982 & 1997?
M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D
Chlorphyll-a
Conclusions 2015 Upwelling weaker than normal , then less nutrients Disruption of seasonal patterns (abiotic, phyto, zooplankton) Phytoplankton species adapted to high temperatures and scarce nutrients (E. zodiacus) Dominance of dinoflagellate during summer Low zooplankton biomass, dead zooplankton on mouth of lagoon 2016 Seasonal patterns of T°, S%, nutrients and Chla returned to normality Phytoplankton species adapted to high temperatures Dominance of dinoflagellate during summer Low zooplankton biomass 2017 Upwelling stronger than normal HAB; Dominance of diatoms during summer Low zooplankton biomass Winter and Autumn 2015 warmer than 1982/83 and 1997/98 Weaker upwellings since 2014 than during other El Niño
Mil gracias¡¡¡ • For your attention and to: • Baja Seas, specially to Oc. Roberto Flores, Don Jorge Gámez, Don Lupe
and all members of the staff
• Ph D Araceli Aviles, MC Ma. del Carmen Leticia Suarez and MC Victor Laurencez for their unconditional support
• MC Germán Vega-Juárez, MC Graciela Arce-Rocha, Biol. Norberto Vásquez-Gómez for phytoplankton counting and identification
• Administrative staff of CICIMAR, CRIP La Paz, INAPESCA
• Alejandra Rodríguez Jiménez for logo design