Impact Assessment of the Agricultural Development Impact Assessment of the Agricultural Development Projects (ADPs) on Fish Farming in NigeriaProjects (ADPs) on Fish Farming in Nigeria

Dr. Harrison. N. EnabuleleDr. Harrison. N. EnabuleleDepartment of Agribusiness and Consumer Department of Agribusiness and Consumer

Science, College of Food Systems, United Arab Science, College of Food Systems, United Arab Emirates University.Emirates University.

Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation

• Introduction and Problem StatementIntroduction and Problem Statement• Project Impact Assessment: Concepts and Project Impact Assessment: Concepts and

Alternative DesignsAlternative Designs• Research Objectives and MethodologyResearch Objectives and Methodology• Results and DiscussionResults and Discussion• Summary and ConclusionSummary and Conclusion

IntroductionIntroduction

• Problems of Agricultural Enterprise Development in NigeriaProblems of Agricultural Enterprise Development in Nigeria

- Categorised as problems inherent in the practice of agriculture Categorised as problems inherent in the practice of agriculture itself (production-related problems operating within the sector)itself (production-related problems operating within the sector)

andand

- Problems operating outside the sector (country specific and the Problems operating outside the sector (country specific and the general society)general society)

Problems of Agricultural Development Problems of Agricultural Development in Nigeriain NigeriaSome Examples of both categorises of Problems include:Some Examples of both categorises of Problems include:- Natural e.g. unpredictable problems arising from weather and - Natural e.g. unpredictable problems arising from weather and

climatic factorsclimatic factors- Technical e.g. lack of high quality and adequate farm inputs and Technical e.g. lack of high quality and adequate farm inputs and

technologytechnology- Financial regarded as the most crucial for agricultural developmentFinancial regarded as the most crucial for agricultural development- Socio-economic e.g. characteristic features of the farms and farmers Socio-economic e.g. characteristic features of the farms and farmers - Organisational associated with governmental/farmers organisations Organisational associated with governmental/farmers organisations - Institutional and Politico-administrative e.g. the poor performances Institutional and Politico-administrative e.g. the poor performances

of governmental institutes vested with farm input-output of governmental institutes vested with farm input-output distributionsdistributions

The Origin and Objectives of the The Origin and Objectives of the Agricultural Development Projects in Agricultural Development Projects in NigeriaNigeria- ADPs idea was sought to promote agricultural productivity based improved ADPs idea was sought to promote agricultural productivity based improved

technologies, enhanced extension delivery systems and supply of modern farm technologies, enhanced extension delivery systems and supply of modern farm inputs and development of rural infrastructuresinputs and development of rural infrastructures

- Implemented in phases: 1975-1982 Enclave and Statewide ADPsImplemented in phases: 1975-1982 Enclave and Statewide ADPs- In 1984 First Multi-State ADPs in 7 States (Anambra, Bendel, Benue, Cross In 1984 First Multi-State ADPs in 7 States (Anambra, Bendel, Benue, Cross

River, Imo, Plateau and Ogun), between 1985-1989 MSADPs-II (Gongola, Kwara River, Imo, Plateau and Ogun), between 1985-1989 MSADPs-II (Gongola, Kwara and Niger), MSADPs-III (Oyo, Ondo, Lagos, Rivers)and Niger), MSADPs-III (Oyo, Ondo, Lagos, Rivers)

- Now 36 functional states ADPs in NigeriaNow 36 functional states ADPs in Nigeria- Setbacks in the ADPs Implementation led to the present day Redesigned Setbacks in the ADPs Implementation led to the present day Redesigned

Projects recommended by the visiting World Bank Supervision Mission in 1990Projects recommended by the visiting World Bank Supervision Mission in 1990- The Redesign Projects introduced the Fisheries Sub-programme, strengthened The Redesign Projects introduced the Fisheries Sub-programme, strengthened

the extension/technical sub-programme under a Unified Extension Services for the extension/technical sub-programme under a Unified Extension Services for crops, livestock and fisheriescrops, livestock and fisheries

- The Redesign Projects strengthened other ADPs core elements and strategies The Redesign Projects strengthened other ADPs core elements and strategies such as Linkage, Project Phasing, Funding, Incremental Food Production, Farm such as Linkage, Project Phasing, Funding, Incremental Food Production, Farm Input and Credit Extension, Agricultural Product Marketing, Post-Project Input and Credit Extension, Agricultural Product Marketing, Post-Project Investment Development, Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, Organisation, Investment Development, Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, Organisation, Management and Sub-ProgrammesManagement and Sub-Programmes

- Other sub-programmes of the ADPs include Commercial (for fertilizers, Other sub-programmes of the ADPs include Commercial (for fertilizers, agrochemical, tractors and equipment hire) and Engineering (rural water agrochemical, tractors and equipment hire) and Engineering (rural water supply and feeder roads maintenance)supply and feeder roads maintenance)

The Concept of Fish FarmingThe Concept of Fish Farming

-- An aspect of aquaculture involving all activities associated with the scientific An aspect of aquaculture involving all activities associated with the scientific and organised rearing or cultivation of fish e.g. Tilapia, Catfish and common and organised rearing or cultivation of fish e.g. Tilapia, Catfish and common fishes (FAO, 1986)fishes (FAO, 1986)

- Farming as used here implies individual or corporate ownership of the stock Farming as used here implies individual or corporate ownership of the stock being cultivated; a form of control of the environment or intervention in the being cultivated; a form of control of the environment or intervention in the rearing process to enhance production such as regular stocking, feeding, rearing process to enhance production such as regular stocking, feeding, protection from diseases and predators (New and Crispoldi-Hotta, 1992) as protection from diseases and predators (New and Crispoldi-Hotta, 1992) as well as other good husbandry practices.well as other good husbandry practices.

- Prerequisite for husbandry practices include adequate water supply, Prerequisite for husbandry practices include adequate water supply, temperature regulation and a careful selection of a suitable soil with good temperature regulation and a careful selection of a suitable soil with good topography that must hold enough water for the fish to survive; since water is topography that must hold enough water for the fish to survive; since water is the medium to grow fish, as well as their natural habitat.the medium to grow fish, as well as their natural habitat.

- The principal fish species stocked in Nigeria are Catfish: The principal fish species stocked in Nigeria are Catfish: Clarias gapriepinusClarias gapriepinus Carp: Carp: Cyprinus capripio, Heterobranchus bidorsalis, Gymnarchus niloticus, Cyprinus capripio, Heterobranchus bidorsalis, Gymnarchus niloticus, Tilapias: Oreochromis niloticus, Heterotis niloticus Tilapias: Oreochromis niloticus, Heterotis niloticus andand HybridHybrid: Heteroclarias: Heteroclarias

Economics Economics Importance/Advantages of Fish Importance/Advantages of Fish FarmingFarming- Fish serves as food, a component of balanced diet providing high quality Fish serves as food, a component of balanced diet providing high quality

calorie, fats, proteins, vitamins, carbohydrates, minerals like Iron, Calcium and calorie, fats, proteins, vitamins, carbohydrates, minerals like Iron, Calcium and essential amino acids (Brummett, 1994)essential amino acids (Brummett, 1994)

- Fish farming is a major occupation, source of income and employment, of a Fish farming is a major occupation, source of income and employment, of a large segment of the rural population may be as high as 85% in coastal and large segment of the rural population may be as high as 85% in coastal and maritime statesmaritime states

- Contributes to the GDP and saving in foreign exchange earning Contributes to the GDP and saving in foreign exchange earning - Support other business organisation such as the domestic fish processing Support other business organisation such as the domestic fish processing

industry and encourage a the development of a wide range of business skills in industry and encourage a the development of a wide range of business skills in marketing and distribution of fish productsmarketing and distribution of fish products

- In integrated agricultural enterprise, provides better land use systems that is In integrated agricultural enterprise, provides better land use systems that is both sustainable and environmentally friendlyboth sustainable and environmentally friendly

- Different types of culture medium can be adopted such as Different types of culture medium can be adopted such as Freshwater Freshwater Earthen Pond, TankEarthen Pond, Tank,, Pens and Cage Enclosures and Raceways Pens and Cage Enclosures and Raceways Culture Culture or Integrated with Agriculture or Animal husbandryor Integrated with Agriculture or Animal husbandry

- Different types of stocking methods can be adopted such as polyculture, Different types of stocking methods can be adopted such as polyculture, monoculture and monosex culturemonoculture and monosex culture

- In Nigeria, there is a gradual increase in annual fish production with the fish In Nigeria, there is a gradual increase in annual fish production with the fish farming sector accounting for less than 10% of the total fish supply.farming sector accounting for less than 10% of the total fish supply.

Concepts in Project Impact Concepts in Project Impact

AssessmentAssessment • The Nature of Development ProjectsThe Nature of Development Projects

- - a planned intervention for achieving one or more objectives; encompassing a planned intervention for achieving one or more objectives; encompassing a set of interrelated activities that are undertaken during a specific period of a set of interrelated activities that are undertaken during a specific period of time, using limited human, financial and physical resources (Dale, 1998). time, using limited human, financial and physical resources (Dale, 1998). - are established to address certain problems existing in the environment, for - are established to address certain problems existing in the environment, for the benefit of some people (beneficiaries) outside or inside the project area. the benefit of some people (beneficiaries) outside or inside the project area. - are the building blocks of plans and therefore the smallest unit of activity, - are the building blocks of plans and therefore the smallest unit of activity, from a technical or economic point of view, that can be undertaken (Helmers, from a technical or economic point of view, that can be undertaken (Helmers, 1979).1979).

• The terms project and programme are used interchangeably. The terms project and programme are used interchangeably. However, a However, a programme is a less bounded entity, less specified and commonly more programme is a less bounded entity, less specified and commonly more comprehensive, long-term and/or diverse intervention (Dale, 1998) and often comprehensive, long-term and/or diverse intervention (Dale, 1998) and often consists of an interrelated group of projects (UN, 1971). Sometimes the term consists of an interrelated group of projects (UN, 1971). Sometimes the term sub-programme is used to spell out details of implementation of a project or sub-programme is used to spell out details of implementation of a project or parts of it and thus a more narrow term than project.parts of it and thus a more narrow term than project.

• Alternative Impact Assessment/Evaluation Designs with or without baseline Alternative Impact Assessment/Evaluation Designs with or without baseline data are shown below. Baseline data refers to the information collected about data are shown below. Baseline data refers to the information collected about the target group (people the project is directed at) before the project starts.the target group (people the project is directed at) before the project starts.

Alternative Impact Assessment Alternative Impact Assessment Designs 1Designs 1

• External FactorsExternal Factors

• Before, Baseline or After orBefore, Baseline or After or Follow-up or Post- Follow-up or Post- Pre-project Situation Pre-project Situation Project Project Situation Situation ProjectProject SituationSituation

• (ex ante)(ex ante) (in medias res)(in medias res) (ex post)(ex post)

• 44• Drawing ConclusionsDrawing Conclusions

• 33Stating assumptions about causes and effectsStating assumptions about causes and effects

• 11 2 2• recording situationrecording situation recording situationrecording situation

• Figure 1: Alternative PIA Designs with Baseline Data (Analytical Steps for Design 1)Figure 1: Alternative PIA Designs with Baseline Data (Analytical Steps for Design 1)• Source: i). DALE. (1998): Source: i). DALE. (1998): op cit.,op cit., p.12. ii). BOARDMAN p.12. ii). BOARDMAN et a,et a, (1996): (1996): op cit., op cit., p.253.p.253.

Alternative Impact Assessment Alternative Impact Assessment Designs 2Designs 2

• External FactorsExternal Factors

• Before, Baseline or Before, Baseline or After orAfter or Follow-up or Post- Follow-up or Post- Situation Situation Pre-project Pre-project Project Project Situation ProjectSituation Project SituationSituation

• 44• Drawing ConclusionsDrawing Conclusions

• 33Stating assumptions about causes and effectsStating assumptions about causes and effects

• Examining relationsExamining relations

• Describing processesDescribing processes• 11 2 2

• recording situationrecording situation recording situationrecording situation

• Figure 2: Alternative PIA Designs with Baseline Data (Analytical Steps for Design 2)Figure 2: Alternative PIA Designs with Baseline Data (Analytical Steps for Design 2)• Source: Same as Figure 1.Source: Same as Figure 1.

Alternative Impact Assessment Alternative Impact Assessment Designs 3 – Quasi-Designs 3 – Quasi-Experimental DesignExperimental Design

• External FactorsExternal Factors

• Before, or Before, or After or After or Follow-up or Post- Follow-up or Post- Pre-project Situation Pre-project Situation Project Project Situation Situation ProjectProject SituationSituation

• (The Without or (The Without or (The With or (The With or (The With or (The With or • Control Group) Control Group) Treatment Group)Treatment Group) Treatment Group) Treatment Group)

• 44• Drawing ConclusionsDrawing Conclusions

• 33Stating assumptions about causes and effectsStating assumptions about causes and effects

• 22 1 1• recording situationrecording situation recording situationrecording situation

• Figure 3: Alternative PIA Designs without Baseline Data (Analytical Steps for Design 3)Figure 3: Alternative PIA Designs without Baseline Data (Analytical Steps for Design 3)• Source: Same as Figure 1.Source: Same as Figure 1.

Alternative Impact Assessment Alternative Impact Assessment Designs 4 – Quasi-Designs 4 – Quasi-Experimental DesignExperimental Design

• External FactorsExternal Factors

• Before, or Before, or After orAfter or Follow-up or Post- Follow-up or Post- Situation Situation Pre-project Pre-project Project Project Situation Situation ProjectProject SituationSituation

• (The Without or (The Without or (The With or (The With or (The With or (The With or • Control Group) Control Group) Treatment Group)Treatment Group) Treatment Group) Treatment Group)

• 44• Drawing ConclusionsDrawing Conclusions

• 33Stating assumptions about causes and effectsStating assumptions about causes and effects

• Examining relationsExamining relations

• Describing processesDescribing processes• 22 1 1

• recording situationrecording situation recording situationrecording situation

• Figure 4: Alternative PIA Designs without Baseline Data (Analytical Steps for Design 4)Figure 4: Alternative PIA Designs without Baseline Data (Analytical Steps for Design 4)• Source: Same as Figure 1.Source: Same as Figure 1.

Research Methodology and Research Methodology and ObjectivesObjectives• Research ObjectivesResearch Objectives- Identify the ADPs Activities and their performance using the Goal-Target Identify the ADPs Activities and their performance using the Goal-Target

Achievements IndexAchievements Index- Assess the Impact of the ADPs on Fish ProductionAssess the Impact of the ADPs on Fish Production- Identify the constraints to Fish Farming in NigeriaIdentify the constraints to Fish Farming in Nigeria

• Study Area, Sampling Procedure and Data Search ModalityStudy Area, Sampling Procedure and Data Search Modality- - Three (40%) of the eight south-western states known for fish farming activities were Three (40%) of the eight south-western states known for fish farming activities were

randomly selected. These are Lagos, Delta and Edo States.randomly selected. These are Lagos, Delta and Edo States.- AA list, contacting the names and addresses of the fish farmers in each states was list, contacting the names and addresses of the fish farmers in each states was

compiled, using the publications of the respective ADPs. compiled, using the publications of the respective ADPs. - A stratified random sampling technique was used for the selection, from the compiled A stratified random sampling technique was used for the selection, from the compiled

list, of 100 fish farmers (50 each of the CFFs and NCFs) from the three regions. Data list, of 100 fish farmers (50 each of the CFFs and NCFs) from the three regions. Data were collected on fish production and input use for the period 1995 to 1999.were collected on fish production and input use for the period 1995 to 1999.

- A total of 25 ADPs' VEAs from the states were selected for filling Village Extension A total of 25 ADPs' VEAs from the states were selected for filling Village Extension Agents questionnaire about the ADPs activities for the period 1995 to 1999 and to Agents questionnaire about the ADPs activities for the period 1995 to 1999 and to interview the pre-selected fish farmers.interview the pre-selected fish farmers.

- This procedure was adopted to prevent the possibility of the Village Extension Agents This procedure was adopted to prevent the possibility of the Village Extension Agents selecting the farmers they are more familiar or friendly with, the richer, better able or selecting the farmers they are more familiar or friendly with, the richer, better able or skilled farmers or those farmers that are easily accessible for questionnaire skilled farmers or those farmers that are easily accessible for questionnaire administration and interview.administration and interview.

Analytical Framework and Analytical Framework and MethodsMethods

• The conceptual framework used for the analysis is a quasi-experimental design in The conceptual framework used for the analysis is a quasi-experimental design in which the comparison of some impact variables for the “with–without” groups, i.e. which the comparison of some impact variables for the “with–without” groups, i.e. the contact fish farmers (CFFs) and the non-contact fish farmers (NCFs).the contact fish farmers (CFFs) and the non-contact fish farmers (NCFs).

• Stepwise linear multiple regression of the SPSS software package was used to Stepwise linear multiple regression of the SPSS software package was used to estimate the fish production function (for both the CFFs and NCFs) and select the estimate the fish production function (for both the CFFs and NCFs) and select the four most important farm inputs used with their marginal productivities. four most important farm inputs used with their marginal productivities.

• The inputs are designated as NFF = Total fingerlings stocked (g), TPA = Total Pond The inputs are designated as NFF = Total fingerlings stocked (g), TPA = Total Pond Area (mArea (m22), TQF = Total Quantity of Fertilizer/Manure used (kg) and TQA = Total ), TQF = Total Quantity of Fertilizer/Manure used (kg) and TQA = Total Quantity of Agro-chemicals and Lime (litres).Quantity of Agro-chemicals and Lime (litres).

• The year 1997 was used as a reference year for the comparison of the before and The year 1997 was used as a reference year for the comparison of the before and after situation for the ADPs performance.after situation for the ADPs performance.

• Because since the cessation of the World Bank (IBRD) Loan was effected towards the Because since the cessation of the World Bank (IBRD) Loan was effected towards the end of 1994, except for some specific projects and that the Federal and the end of 1994, except for some specific projects and that the Federal and the respective States Governments financed the projects onwards until towards the end respective States Governments financed the projects onwards until towards the end of 1996 before the World Bank provided the so-called bridging loans (ended of 1996 before the World Bank provided the so-called bridging loans (ended 31/12/1999)31/12/1999)

Analytical Framework and Analytical Framework and MethodsMethods

-- The outcome of the implementation task of the different sub-programmes and their The outcome of the implementation task of the different sub-programmes and their sub-units was assessed using the Project Achievement (PAI) . The PAI is a practical sub-units was assessed using the Project Achievement (PAI) . The PAI is a practical and simple method of evaluating a project by comparing actual achievements and and simple method of evaluating a project by comparing actual achievements and pitfalls with the set of physical targets contained in the operational objectives. This pitfalls with the set of physical targets contained in the operational objectives. This index is specified asindex is specified as

• PAIPAIijz ijz = A= Aijzijz / T / Tijz ijz * 100* 100

• Where, PAI is the Project Achievement Index, A is the Actual Achievement Level, T is Where, PAI is the Project Achievement Index, A is the Actual Achievement Level, T is the Target Level for the objectives, the subscript i and z denote the Project the Target Level for the objectives, the subscript i and z denote the Project Objectives for the sub-programme respectively and j is the year.Objectives for the sub-programme respectively and j is the year.

• The compound growth rates for the estimated annual fish production figures for The compound growth rates for the estimated annual fish production figures for both the CFFs and the NCFs, an important indicator of the impact of the ADPs on both the CFFs and the NCFs, an important indicator of the impact of the ADPs on fish production, were also computed by fitting an exponential function in time as fish production, were also computed by fitting an exponential function in time as shown below:shown below:

• FSHFSH == A.expA.expBtBt Which, in linear logarithm form, is: Ln FSHWhich, in linear logarithm form, is: Ln FSH ==A + BtA + Bt

• Where, FSH is fish production, A and B are parameters to be estimated and t is the Where, FSH is fish production, A and B are parameters to be estimated and t is the time variable. The growth rate (r) is given by (exptime variable. The growth rate (r) is given by (expBB – 1) * 100, where exp is the – 1) * 100, where exp is the Euler’s exponential constant (2.71828).Euler’s exponential constant (2.71828).

Summary of Results and Summary of Results and DiscussionDiscussion• The ADPs ActivitiesThe ADPs Activities1.1. The TThe Transfer of Modern Fish Farming Practicesransfer of Modern Fish Farming Practices is vested on the fisheries, extension and technical is vested on the fisheries, extension and technical

sub-programmes.sub-programmes.- Fisheries consist of – the adaptive research/technology, brood-stock development and fingerling Fisheries consist of – the adaptive research/technology, brood-stock development and fingerling

production. production. - Extension and Technical consist of – the no. of farm families covered, no. of VEAs employed, no. of Small Extension and Technical consist of – the no. of farm families covered, no. of VEAs employed, no. of Small

Plot Adoption Techniques established on the farmers’ farms, On-farm Adaptive Research trials Plot Adoption Techniques established on the farmers’ farms, On-farm Adaptive Research trials conducted, farmers group established, no. of fish farms visited, the regular conduct of Fortnight and the conducted, farmers group established, no. of fish farms visited, the regular conduct of Fortnight and the Monthly Technical Review Meetings.Monthly Technical Review Meetings.

2.2. Fish Farming Inputs Procurement, Distribution and SupplyFish Farming Inputs Procurement, Distribution and Supply is vested on the commercial for is vested on the commercial for procuring, distributing and supplying the farmer fertilizer, agro-chemicals and lime, insects/pesticides procuring, distributing and supplying the farmer fertilizer, agro-chemicals and lime, insects/pesticides sprayers and water pumps, hiring of farm implements and tools, the formation and support of farmers’ sprayers and water pumps, hiring of farm implements and tools, the formation and support of farmers’ groups and the linkage of the farmers to credit institutions and facilities. groups and the linkage of the farmers to credit institutions and facilities.

3.3. Rural Infrastructure and Community DevelopmentRural Infrastructure and Community Development is vested on the Engineering for constructing is vested on the Engineering for constructing and maintaining rural feeder roads, provision of rural water, establishing farm training/service and maintaining rural feeder roads, provision of rural water, establishing farm training/service centre/store and construction of demonstration fish ponds.centre/store and construction of demonstration fish ponds.

The distribution of the physical targets and their achievements for the above activities except for The distribution of the physical targets and their achievements for the above activities except for mainly extension sub-programme shows, consistently lower than the physical targets set and both have mainly extension sub-programme shows, consistently lower than the physical targets set and both have also been on a declining trend through the period 1995-1999 as shown in the graphs. The Commercial also been on a declining trend through the period 1995-1999 as shown in the graphs. The Commercial and Engineering were specially affected by re-organisation of the ADPs activities. and Engineering were specially affected by re-organisation of the ADPs activities.

• Also, sharp decrease was recorded for the time period immediately preceding 1997 or immediately Also, sharp decrease was recorded for the time period immediately preceding 1997 or immediately thereafter. This period refers to the time before and after the provision of the so-called World Bank thereafter. This period refers to the time before and after the provision of the so-called World Bank

‘bridging loans’ to the ADPs.‘bridging loans’ to the ADPs.

(a) Fisheries Sub-Programme

y = -6,216x + 12490

0

50

100

150

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Period (Years)

PAI

Fisheries-LSADP

Fisheries-EDADP

Fisheries-DTADP

Fisheries-All ADPs

Linear (Fisheries-All ADPs)

(b). Exension/Technical Sub-Programme

y = 1,004x + 71,632

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Period (Years)

PA

I

Extension/Technical-LSADP

Extension/Technical-EDADP

Extension/Techncical-DTADP

Extension/Technical-All ADPs

Linear (Extension/Technical-All ADPs)

(c). Commercial Sub-Programme

y = -5,543x + 78,187

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Period (Years)

PAI

Commercial-LSADP

Commercial-EDADP

Commercial-DTADP

Commercial-All ADPs

Linear (Commercial-All ADPs)

(d). Engineering and all Sub-Programmes

y = -2,936x + 65,476

y = -1,918x + 74,072

0

20

40

60

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Period (Years)

PA

I

Engineering-LSADP

Engineering-EDADP

Engineering-DTADP

Engineering-All ADPs

All-Sub-Programmes-All ADPs

Linear (Engineering-All ADPs)

Linear (All-Sub-Programmes-All ADPs)

Impact Assessment of the Impact Assessment of the ADPs on Fish ProductionADPs on Fish Production

• The farmers’ socio-economics shows that 55 % were between 39 -48 yrs, 80% male, 79% have been a fish The farmers’ socio-economics shows that 55 % were between 39 -48 yrs, 80% male, 79% have been a fish farmer foe about 10 yrs, 76 % married 49% with education higher than post-secondary school and 55% full-farmer foe about 10 yrs, 76 % married 49% with education higher than post-secondary school and 55% full-time farmers.time farmers.

• About 38 and 33% of the CFFs and NCFs respectively adopted fish farming through the efforts of the ADPs, About 38 and 33% of the CFFs and NCFs respectively adopted fish farming through the efforts of the ADPs, making 35% in overall for all fish farmers adopting fish farming through the ADPs. That means a higher making 35% in overall for all fish farmers adopting fish farming through the ADPs. That means a higher proportion of the farmers adopting fish farming are the CFFs. proportion of the farmers adopting fish farming are the CFFs.

• It follows therefore that the more experienced and educated full time farmers/farm owners belonging to It follows therefore that the more experienced and educated full time farmers/farm owners belonging to farmers’ organisation preferably with savings and cooperative programmes with the ADPs are more dispose farmers’ organisation preferably with savings and cooperative programmes with the ADPs are more dispose to adopt or take up fish farming as an occupation. to adopt or take up fish farming as an occupation.

• Difference between the farm characteristics of the CFFs and the NCFs .Difference between the farm characteristics of the CFFs and the NCFs .

Farm CharacteristicsCFFs1999 1995

NCFs1999 1995

FFs1999 1995

Farm Size (ha)2.93.01.72.72.952.85

Average Pond Number4.55.03.54.54.04.75

Average Pond Size (m2220320230300225310

Average Pond Depth (m)1.51.51.51.81.501.65

Impact Assessment of the Impact Assessment of the ADPs on Fish ProductionADPs on Fish Production• Various ADPs activities such as the teaching of farm practices, recommendations and fish technologies and Various ADPs activities such as the teaching of farm practices, recommendations and fish technologies and

farm inputs supply will have a significant impact on the fish production.farm inputs supply will have a significant impact on the fish production.• Farm practices includes - selection of culturable fish species, the best period for pond stocking and harvesting Farm practices includes - selection of culturable fish species, the best period for pond stocking and harvesting

and sale. The culture period is between 7-9 months ( harvest is annual). Harvest is June to September. Farmers and sale. The culture period is between 7-9 months ( harvest is annual). Harvest is June to September. Farmers harvest their fishes at this time for better sales.harvest their fishes at this time for better sales.

• The fish production for the CFFs grew slightly faster at a compound rate of 8.52% than the NCFs of 8.18% (the The fish production for the CFFs grew slightly faster at a compound rate of 8.52% than the NCFs of 8.18% (the growth rate for all FFs was 8.33%). The t-test shows that significance difference at 1 and 5% between the growth rate for all FFs was 8.33%). The t-test shows that significance difference at 1 and 5% between the average fish production for both the group of farmers. average fish production for both the group of farmers.

• The average price of fish per kg range between NGR100-200 (AED 2-5). The net returns to fish production was The average price of fish per kg range between NGR100-200 (AED 2-5). The net returns to fish production was positive. The CFFs had a higher profit than the NCFs per hectare.positive. The CFFs had a higher profit than the NCFs per hectare.

YearsCFFs

Total AverageNCFsTotal Average

t-values2FFsTotal Average

199554600.001137.5033,291.96640.236.0134*88087880.87

199653498.881114.5638,948.00749.002.0548**93078930.78

199755369.921153.5444,071.04847.522.4804*1000501000.50

199864280.161339.1745,429.80873.653.6684*1100411100.41

199974970.241561.8846,317.96890.733.3308*1220301220.30

Average605743.841261.3341611.96800.233.8805*53381.641026.57

Impact Assessment of the ADPs on Fish Impact Assessment of the ADPs on Fish ProductionProduction• Although several inputs are used, specific ones were found to be highly significant and important.Although several inputs are used, specific ones were found to be highly significant and important.• • TThese are the number or quantity (in grams) of fingerlings stocked per culture time/annum and hese are the number or quantity (in grams) of fingerlings stocked per culture time/annum and

the size/area of ponds. the size/area of ponds.

• These variables account for about 77, 76 and 71% of the variation in fish production for both the These variables account for about 77, 76 and 71% of the variation in fish production for both the CFFs, NCFs and FFs respectively. CFFs, NCFs and FFs respectively.

• The quantity of fingerlings stocked is highly significant because the output of the ponds depends The quantity of fingerlings stocked is highly significant because the output of the ponds depends on the no of fishes stocked. on the no of fishes stocked.

• The pond size or area is a significant because it directly determine the number of quantity of The pond size or area is a significant because it directly determine the number of quantity of fingerlings that can be stock in a given pond and in addition with the depth of the pond, fingerlings that can be stock in a given pond and in addition with the depth of the pond, determines the volume of water a pond can retain.determines the volume of water a pond can retain.

• All other factors remaining constant, a small pond will yield less harvest than a large pond.All other factors remaining constant, a small pond will yield less harvest than a large pond.

• To a lesser extent does the quantity of fertilizer and agro-chemicals and lime influences fish To a lesser extent does the quantity of fertilizer and agro-chemicals and lime influences fish production. production.

• The higher marginal productivities (MPs) of these farm inputs used for the CFFs when compared The higher marginal productivities (MPs) of these farm inputs used for the CFFs when compared with the NCFs as shown in the Table below.with the NCFs as shown in the Table below.

The Estimated Fish Production Function .

FSH = Dep. Variable

CFFsI II

NCFsI II

FFsI II

Constant396.56239.883287.864463.765651.05259.656

NFFw0.01632(5.376)*

0.02099(4.556)*

0.01099(14.052)*

0.01051(13.325)*

0.0213(11.943)*

0.02087(11.035)*

TPA1.728(5.801)*

1.9340(5.633)*

0.189(12.030)*

0.2600(14.550)*

0.735(3.810)*

0.799(4.128)*

TQF0.1960(2.224)***

0.0824(1.147)+

0.3800(0.672)+

TQA-4.745(-0.546)+

-0.266(-1.082)+

-0.806(-2.794)***

D/F282826

R-20.7670.7680.75800.7590.7130.726

D.W1.7371.8151.4001.4031.8361.972

F178.14428.286102.77225.790124.25044.720

Significant0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

Note: *, ** and *** t-values significant at 1, 5 and 10% levels.Source: Field Survey Data, 2000.

Some Constraints to Fish Some Constraints to Fish FarmingFarming

- Finance e.g. lack of loans and creditsFinance e.g. lack of loans and credits

- Physical Production e.g. farm suppliesPhysical Production e.g. farm supplies

- Socio-cultural e.g. pilferage and stealingSocio-cultural e.g. pilferage and stealing

- Environmental e.g. oil spillage, water Environmental e.g. oil spillage, water pollution, excessive rainfall and pollution, excessive rainfall and flooding, excessive heat and pond dry flooding, excessive heat and pond dry outout

ConclusionConclusion

• A declining trend in performance of the A declining trend in performance of the ADPs for almost all sub-programmes ADPs for almost all sub-programmes except the extension sub-programme except the extension sub-programme because of the emphasis on this sub-because of the emphasis on this sub-programmeprogramme

• Significant difference between the fish Significant difference between the fish production and fish farming activities of production and fish farming activities of both the Contact and Non-contact Fish both the Contact and Non-contact Fish Farmers. This shows a positive impactFarmers. This shows a positive impact

Finally I sayFinally I say,,

• Thank You for Your AttentionThank You for Your Attention