Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi

8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi

1/17

Ebtmk~ M{{i{{bil~ fg Kaebm~i Khml`i Kfl{enizel`

Ylkiz~mel~ei{ el Gy~yzi Kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{

"Ebtmk~ fl Tmnnu Zeki Tzfnyk~efl el M{em"

Uyoe Bm{y~fbe =% !

Ceuf{he ^mcmhm{he :% !

Henif Hmzm{mpm :% !

mln Uyyzy Bm~{yfcm ;%

=%? Kil~iz gfz Ilwezflbil~ma [keilki el [me~mbm

:%? Lm~eflma El{~e~y~i gfz Ilwezflbil~ma [~ynei{

;%? Cuf~f Ylewiz{e~u


2/17

(Gek{hiz i~ ma,! (:449%%

El~zfnyk~efl E

"Ylkiz~mel~ei{ el ebtmk~ m{{i{{bil~"

@KBZKB

Ebtmk~ bfnia(Kzft bfnia!

pm~iz zi{fyzki bfnia! i~k,%

Kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{ Fy~ty~{

Ebtmk~ m{{i{{bil~

(ETKK MZ>%


3/17

={~ Ciu ]yi{~efl

Hfp bykh ebtmk~ nfi{ kaebm~i khml`i hmwi

eg pi kfbtzihil{ewiau kfl{eniz ylkiz~mel~u el

gy~yzi kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{6


4/17

El~zfnyk~efl EE

" KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~ "

He`h KF:kflkil~zm~efl

Kaebm~i khml`iIlhmlki thf~f{ul~hi{e{

tf{e~ewi li`m~ewiW[


5/17

:ln Ciu ]yi{~efl

E{ li~ iggik~ fg iaiwm~in KF: kflkil~zm~efl

tf{e~ewi fz li`m~ewi6

El ~hi :4:4{! :494{! mln :484{


6/17

Bi~hfn" Hfp ~f ~mci ylkiz~mel~ei{ el~f kfl{enizm~efl6"

[~it= Kmakyam~efl fgbya~e"ebtmk~{ ju

y{el` bya~e"kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{

[~it:

M{{ybel` ~hm~ imkh ebtmk~ e{i}ymaau tf{{ejai! pi kmakyam~i

{~m~e{~ekma bi~zek{,

Kaebm~i tzfoik~efl

Kaebm~i {kilmzef

Kaebm~i tzfoik~efl

Ebtmk~ bfnia

Ebtmk~

Fy~ty~

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Tz, fg ueian nikzim{i 2 74 S)R

=, Mwizm`i

:, [~mlnmzn niwem~efl

;, Tzfjmjeae~ei{


7/17

Kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{ (gzfb TKBNE%Kfyl~zu Bfnia lmbi M=J (=8 @KB{% M: (=> @KB{% J= (=0 @KB{%

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Gzmlki KLZB"KB;

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Omtml BEZFK;,:(binzi{%

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8/17

Kzft bfnia

B"@MI_ bfnia Jm{in fl @afjma M`zf"Ikfafèkma _fli bfnia (@MI_"bfnia%

@MI_"bfnia pm{ Niwiaftin ju EEM[M mln GMF (Ge{khiz i~ ma,!

:44:%

pm{ y{in gfz ~hi m{{i{{bil~ fg àfjma gffn {ikyze~u el ETKK MZ>,

e{ fli fg bmel ~ffa{ y{in ju GMF gfz mlmau{i{ fg amln zi{fyzki{

Lybjiz fg hylìz (ETKK MZ>%

Bmlyma fg @MI_

GMF zitfz~


9/17


10/17

Wmaenm~efl fg B"@MI_

Mwizm`i ueian{ gfz =584{ ju M{eml kfyl~zei{Uimzau wmzemjeae~u el ueian{ el =584{ el M{em

Kfbtmze{fl fg ueian{ ji~piil {ebyam~efl mln fj{izwm~efl

4

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B"@MI_


11/17

Zi{ya~ E " pe~hfy~ KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~ "


12/17

Zi{ya~ E " pe~hfy~ KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~ "


13/17

Zi{ya~ EE " pe~h KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~ "


14/17

Zi{ya~ EEE "Ebtmk~ fl M{em"

El ~hi :4:4{ Ae~~ai neggizilki el mwizmì khmlì{ el tzfnyk~efl (MKT{% mbfl` [ZI[ {kilmzef{

^hi tzfjmjeae~ei{ fg tzfnyk~efl nikzim{i (Tz(KT14%% mzi he`h gfz maa [ZI[ {kilmzef{

El ~hi :494{ Tf{e~ewi mln li`m~ewi iggik~{ mzi el i}yeaejzeyb

El ~hi :484{

Amzì neggizilki el MKT{ mln Tz(KT14%%{ mbfl` [ZI[ {kilmzef{, M: hm{ amzì{~ mnwiz{i iggik~ ma~hfy`h M: hm{ ~hi amzì{~ KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~

pe~hfy~ KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~ pe~h KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~

M=J M: J= M=J M: J= M=J M: J=

MKT pe~hfy~ KF: iggik~ "9,: "7,; ">,: "8,7 "5,> "9,> "=7,8 "::,4 "8,>

MKT ";,; ">,9 ":,9 "4,; "4,5 4,: "9,4 "5,5 "4,9

[NKT ;,: ;,: ;,= ;,5 ;,0 ;,; 0,: 8,> >,8

Tz(KT14% 8;,; =44,4 07,9 >>,> 90,= 9:,5 0:,: 89,0 >0,=

=554{":494{ =554{":484{=554{":4:4{


15/17

Zi{ya~ EW Ebtmk~ ju Kfyl~zei{ "

Kfyl~zu M=J M: J= M=J M: J= M=J M: J=

Jml amni{h ":,8 "7,5 ";,4 ">,: "0,8 ";,0 "5,= "=>,9 ">,=

Jzylie Nmzy{{mamb 4,: "4,; 4,4 9,7 0,= >,; 8,; 7,> 9,:

Jhy~ml =,0 "=,> :,7 7,9 =9,8 ;,8 "=:,5 "8,; 9,0

Khelm "9,8 "0,= ";,> "9,: ";,8 ":,= "=4,4 "=;,= "9,0

Hfl` Cfl` ">,9 ";,4 "=,5 9,0 ==,> =,5 "4,0 ":,4 0,9

Elnfli{em "4,; ":,5 "=,9 9,9 ;,0 =,5 >,: ";,0 ;,0

Elnem ">,: ">,9 ";,> "4,9 "4,= 4,8 ";,4 ">,5 4,7

Kmbjfnem ":,8 "8,4 ";,; "4,9 ";,: 4,4 ":>,0 ">;,: "4,9

[ Cfzim 4,8 "=,4 :,; 9,0 7,4 :,0 :,9 "7,4 8,:

Amf{ ";,7 ":,9 "=,5 ;,> 4,0 =,; >,4 "4,7 :,4

Bumlbmz "=,: ":,; "=,= =,7 4,= =,: "4,9 ">,4 =,=

Bmamu{em 4,> "=,0 4,0 7,= 9,5 >,; 8,4 ;,> 7,>

Litma "0,0 "0,0 "7,= ":4,0 "=0,0 "=4,> ";>,7 ";8,0 "=8,0

Tmce{~ml =,: 4,0 :,; 0,5 5,4 9,8 0,0 7,8 8,=

Theaetteli{ ":,= "9,= "9,4 :,> ">,0 "=,5 ;,; ";,> "=,5

L Cfzim 9,7 9,5 0,4 ::,8 :4,7 =>,: :7,4 ::,7 ::,:

[el`mtfzi =,> "=,9 4,4 9,7 0,7 ;,; :,: "7,4 :,7

^hmeamln ":,9 ":,7 "=,0 "4,: ":,; =,: "8,: "=7,: "4,>

Im{~ ebfz ";,0 "=4,= "8,= 4,5 "7,; "=,9 =,7 ">,> =,7

Wei~lmb ";,0 ":,: ":,: :,; 4,7 4,> "==,0 ":4,0 "=,4

Omtml ;,7 4,4 :,= ;,4 ;,: >,: ":,0 "8,4 9,;

[ze Amlcm "=,; ;,= ;,4 0,8 ;,= 0,: 7,= >,= 8,8

^mepml >,7 0,5 9,= :>,0 :8,; =9,= ;:,= ;8,: =8,7

:4:4{ ( w{, =554{% :494{ ( w{, =554{% :484{ ( w{, =554{%

Bf{~ kfyl~zei{ el im{~ M{em hmwi li`m~ewi ebtmk~ el [ZI[ M:


16/17

[ybbmzu fg ~hi zi{ya~{ Ciu }yi{~efl{

Hfp bykh ebtmk~ nfi{ kaebm~i khmlì hmwieg pi kfbtzihil{ewiau kfl{enizylkiz~mel~u el gy~yzi kaebm~i6

E{ li~ iggik~ fg iaiwm~in KF: kflkil~zm~efl tf{e~ewi fz li`m~ewi6

Fyz ml{piz Li~ iggik~ fg iaiwm~in KF: kflkil~zm~efl el kfbtzihil{ewi kfl{enizm~efl fg

gy~yzi kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{ e{ li`m~ewi el ~hi :4:4{ mln :484{! mln limzau izf

el ~hi :494{, Bf{~ kfyl~zei{ el im{~ M{em hmwi li`m~ewi ebtmk~ el ~hi :484{ el [ZI[ M:

[y`ì{~efl{ E~ e{ liki{{mzu ~f ~mci ebbinem~i mnmt~ewi mk~efl{ el ~hi limz gy~yzi!

zi`mznai{{ fg {fkef"ikflfbek niwiaftbil~,

Jikmy{i ~hi tzfjmjeae~ei{ fg tzfnyk~efl nikzim{i mzi he`h gfz maa [ZI[ {kilmzef{el ~hi :4:4{

^hi zinyk~efl fg KF: ibe{{efl el ~hi afl` ~izb hm{ m amzì tf~il~ema ~fbe~e`m~i li`m~ewi khmlì{,

Amz i neggizilki el khmlì el tzfnyk~efl mbfl` [ZI[ {kilmzef{ el ~hi :484{

He`h KF: kflkil~zm~efl {kilmzef! M:! hm{ amzì{~ mnwiz{i iggik~ el ~hi :484{!pheai afp KF: kflkil~zm~efl {kilmzef! J=! hm{ {bmaai{~ mnwiz{i iggik~ el ~hi

:484{,


17/17

^hmlc ufy gfz ufyz m~~il~efl

uyoe,bm{y~fbeD`bmea,kfb

Documents

Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi