RegIS2: Regional Climate RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Change

Impact & Response Studies Impact & Response Studies    

http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/regis2.htm

Project duration- 1st September 2003 to 31st August 2005

Dr Ian HolmanInstitute of Water and Environment

Cranfield UniversitySilsoe

Bedford

OverviewOverview

Introduction to RegIS1

Recommendations for future IA’s

RegIS2- rationale and framework

RegIS2 Interface tool

Conclusions

RegIS- from sectoral assessment…..RegIS- from sectoral assessment…..

Most studies:

Climate change

Sector

Impact(effect) ??

……to Integrated Assessment?to Integrated Assessment?

MODELS &INTERACTIONS

INTEGRATEDASSESSMENT

AGRICULTURE Yields, profitability

& land use

COASTAL ZONESea level rise,

flooding & erosion

BIODIVERSITYEcosystems, species

& habitats

WATERquantity, quality

& flooding

SCENARIOSClimate and

socio-economicchange

GIS DATABASEModel inputs &

outputs, landscapecharacteristics

STAKEHOLDERS

RegIS: RegRegIS: Regional Climate Change ional Climate Change IImpact & Response mpact & Response SStudiestudies

1st integrated assessment of climate change in UK

Considered socio-economic and climate change

4 sectors- coasts, agriculture, water & biodiversity

Interactions between sectors through linked models

Two contrasting regions- North West & East Anglia

5 km x 5 km

http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/

The RegIS Study AreaThe RegIS Study Area

• Contrasting climate, landuse, landscape

Example results from RegIS1Example results from RegIS1Flooding Agriculture

Scenarios

Recharge + run-off

Hydrology & groundwater resources

Biodiversity

RegIS1• Long model run times • No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’• >1Gb of model output per run• Questions identified by RegIS team• Model application by RegIS team• But still successful!

Recommendations following RegISRecommendations following RegIS

Included (fully or partially) in RegIS2

Not included in RegIS2

Extreme weather events More sectors Uncertainty analysis Closer integration of user needs Twin-track modelling approach

National SE scenarios “Integrated scenarios” of change Continuous responses to changing circumstances Risk-based

Rationale behind RegIS2RegIS1• Long model run times • No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’• >1Gb of model output per run• Questions identified by RegIS team• Model application by RegIS team• But still successful!

RegIS2• Faster model run times• All models linked within an interface• Limited targeted model output• Questions identified by stakeholders• Model application by the stakeholders•…….

Key project objectives

1. To refine the RegIS risk assessment methodology into a form usable by Stakeholders;

2. To develop regional scenarios;3. To identify, with stakeholders, critical

impacts, interactions, adaptive responses, and interface design;

4. To develop a user friendly software tool, containing …scenarios,…the metamodels and the input data needed for Stakeholders to analyse impacts, interactions and adaptive responses.

Based on the DPSIR methodology: Drivers-Pressure-State-Impacts-ResponseDeveloped for planning sustainable development Used successfully within the RegIS

Methodological Framework

Allows facilitate explicit investigation of the interactions between:

the driving forces of environmental and climate change (drivers-pressure); the sensitivity of impact indicators (state-impacts) and; stakeholder adaptive strategies (responses).

DPSIR within RegIS2DPSIR within RegIS2Drivers: the underlying exogenous causes of change,

e.g. climate/socio-economic change, national policy. qualitative, narrative storylines, e.g. SRES

Pressure: the variables that quantify drivers e.g. regional population, precipitation, etc.

regional, quantitative scenarios.State: variables that represent the sensitivity of the

system to the pressure variables, e.g. river flows etc meta-models to derive state variables

Impact: a measure of whether the changes in the state variables have a negative or positive effect

derive impact indicators and translate these into impact classes reflecting value judgements.

Response: planned (societal level) adaptation that acts on the socio-economic pressure variables

use REGIS2 interface

Drivers(storylines)

Pressures(scenarios)

State(metamodels)

Impact(indicators)

Response(user options)

Plannedadaptation

Autonomousadaptation(feedbacks)

REGIS2 IAM(based on DPSIR)

Simplified representation of RegIS2Simplified representation of RegIS2

Biodiversity

Rural land use

Water resources

Urban developmentpatterns

Flooding

Coastal model

Fluvial flood model

High river flows

Water demand

Water Availability

STATE / IMPACT

SES scenarios

Climate variables

SE variables

Climate scenario

s

DRIVERSPRESSURES

RESPONSES

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses

Sensitivity, uncertainty and

adaptive responses analyses

RegIS2 InterfaceRegIS2 Interface

User friendly

intuitive

Robust

Fast run times

Allow investigation of adaptive responses, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

The intention:

The reality……….

Interface v2.0Interface v2.0

Pressures/Responses

Drivers

State / Impact

Example resultsExample results

Example resultsExample results

Conclusions

• RegIS represented a significant step in local IA

• RegIS2 will not do everything!

• RegIS2 will build upon, and improve, on RegIS

• The RegIS2 tool will (hopefully) be used to explore our uncertain (climate and socio-economic) futures

RegIS2: Regional Climate RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Change

Impact & Response Studies Impact & Response Studies    

http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/regis2.htm

Dr Ian HolmanInstitute of Water and Environment

Cranfield UniversitySilsoe

Bedford