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IGOR OKUNEVVICE -DEAN, SCHOOL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE,
MOSCOW STATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OFMINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Geopolitical Codes in the Transatlantic Area
MARCH 8 , 2013THESSALONIKI , GREECE
4 T H CONFERENCE ON SECURITY, STRATEGY AND I NTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
March 8 - Women’s Day
No other country then Russia celebrates so widely and brightly the New York manifestation for women rights on March 8, 1908.
In modern Russia the day lost its political flavor, and became simply an occasion for men to express their love for women.
Geopolitical Codes
The manner in which a country orientates itself towards the world (Flint, 2011)
What are current and potential allies?What is current and potential enemies?How can we maintain our allies and nurture potential
allies?How can we counter our current enemies and
emerging threat?How do we justify the four culculations above to our
public, and to the global community? (Taylor and Flint, 2000)
USA Russia
Local (before XIX)
Regional (XIX-XX cc.)
Global (from WWII)
Local (before XVIII c.)
Regional (XVIII-XX cc.)
Global (from WWII till 1991)
Regional (from 1991)
Scales of Geopolitical Codes
Orientation of Geopolitical Codes in Russia
Debate of prowestern and antiwestern thinkers and policymakers from Ivan the Terrible (after Russia proclaimed itself as a leader of Eastern Christianity)
Mostly antiwestern population with prowestern leaders (Peter the Great)
Even in Soviet time: Absorbed western communism Anti - imperialism, Alter - western.
Now - face the period when the leadership becomes antiwestern after the population.
Russian Foreign Policy Doctrines
2001-2004 “European choice” (Putin, German Parliament)
2005-2008 Natural resources super power
2009-2012 Resources for modernization
2013 - Sovereignization
Dealing with Russian will mean dealing with V. Putin and it will not be easy (Trenin 2013) – realpolitik?
First Antiwestern Doctrine (2013)
Putin need to consolidate power at home challenged by big city protests in 2011-12
Cancellation of USAID and foreign NGOs activities (“foreign agents” - spies)
Anti US Magnitsky Act – adoption of Russian children
Restricting Russian officials to own assets and property abroad
Why?
Sovereign determination is build on opposition to the external theat.
Unequal status vis-à-vis the West (foreign aid recepient, democracy class drop-out)
New right national ideology formation. Russian no longer accept the values gap between itself ant the Europe but proudly advertise its own traditional values (national sovereignty, religious faith, traditional family). “Enchecked freedoms erode EU society. Europeans becomes too soft and giving up their former strengths”.
Turn to East
APEC Summit in Vladivostok
New opportunities in cooperation with China, India, Japan, ASEAN countries.
Need to develop Russian Far East.
Eurasian Union
The only goal for Putin is become history.
Not a new empire like H. Clinton called it.
Customs Union from 2009Economic Union from 2015
Belarus, KazakhstanKyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (2013-14) Ukraine – for EU “suitcase without a handle”: can
neither be carried forward, nor abandoned.Uzbekistan, Armenia - ?
Recommendations for Western policymakers
Proceed in no-visa process
Stress on economic cooperation
Cooperate on regional issues (Kaliningrad, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Arctic, Pacific)
Cooperate in missile defense and nuclear nonproliferation
No isolation
