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Identifying a Theme for a NextNational Human Development Report of Vietnam
Arkadi Toritsyn, Ph.D. International Human Development Consultant,
UNDP Vietnam
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Purpose of the Presentation
Present three potential themes for NHDR-V. The themes include:• Growth that Works for All: Investing in
Equal Opportunities• Enhancing Voices and Choices for a
Prosperous Future for All• Green growth for human development in
Vietnam
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Process of Concept Notes preparation
• Strong commitment of VASS management.• Participatory approach and extensive
discussions.• Identification of topics that reflect
Government priorities.
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Process of NHDRs preparation• Participatory – will involve as many stakeholders
as possible• High quality – multiple quality control tools will
be in place• Findings and recommendations will be broadly
disseminated and target diverse audiences• Action –oriented as the ultimate goal is to change
institutions, policies, programs, mindsets and behaviours to ensure human development
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Theme 1: Growth that Works for All: Investing in Equal Opportunities
• Economic growth slows down and inequalities increase in Vietnam, which in turn exacerbate structural challenges and affect the pattern and pace of growth and human development.
• Income inequalities are 'the biggest global risk: it undermines growth by breaking down the tissues of society'.
• Income inequalities are compounded by inequalities in opportunities, in particular inequalities in access to (quality) education and health and productive employment.
• Top priority of the Government of Vietnam is to seek a model for sustaining growth in the next decade while ensuring social equality and environment protection.
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Income inequality rose modestly 2004 - 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
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Incomes have grown throughout the distribution between 2004 and 2010, but growth has favored better-off households
2004 2010Annualized Growth 2004-2010
Income deciles
Vn
Don
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Jan
2010 p
rices)
An
nu
ali
zed g
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From: World Bank, ‘Well Begun, Not Yet Done: Vietnam’s Remarkable Progress on Poverty Reduction and the Emerging Challenges’, 2012.
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Poverty Reduction is slowing• Economic growth and poverty reduction are slowing • Remaining poor harder to reach, more heterogeneous, less
responsive to economic growth.• While urban poverty rates are low, urban residents struggle to
cope with rising cost of living, many are forced to work in informal sector without adequate social protection or employment benefits. Migrants remain particularly vulnerable.
• Vulnerability to poverty remains high due to climatic shocks, health shocks, rising cost of living, job losses, etc.
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Why has the theme been chosen? • All groups benefited from economic growth,
but the degree to which they benefited and participated in this process varied.
• Need to examine linkages between inclusiveness and growth.
• Task to explore specific institutional and policy changes that can potentially help Vietnam to overcome current economic stagnation and rising multidimensional inequalities.
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Core questions to be addressed under the Theme 1
• Is the Vietnam growth model sufficiently inclusive? • If the model is not sufficiently inclusive and Human
Development focused, what is the impact of this “limited inclusiveness” on the patterns of economic growth and macroeconomic stability?
• What would be the impacts of adopting a more inclusive growth model (e.g., reduced inequality, improved human development outcomes, and higher and sustainable growth) in Vietnam?
• What should be the inclusive economic growth model for Vietnam that will support sustainable broad based economic growth and human development?
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Inclusive Growth and Human Development: Linkages
• The literature on inclusive growth is abundant, however there is no consensus on its definition. Core elements of the Inclusive Growth concept include:
• Inclusive growth refers both to the pace as well as the pattern of growth, which are interlinked and need to be addressed together.
• Inclusive growth implies participation and benefit sharing. Participation without benefit sharing will make growth unjust and sharing benefits without participation will make it a welfare outcome.
• Its focus is on productive employment rather than direct income re-distribution as a means of income for disadvantaged.
• Economic opportunities should be equally accessible irrespective of asset ownership, income, gender, religion, disability, ethnicity and geography.
• The concept should also include other dimensions than income.
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Growth is inclusive when…
• It is broad-based and takes place in sectors where bulk of poor work (e.g., agriculture, informal sector)
• It is regionally balanced and focuses specially on relatively poorer areas
• Focuses on investments in human capital (health and education), ensuring universal access to quality services
• Focuses on productive employment creation
• Uses social protection as a counter-cyclical and shock reducing policy instrument
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What drives these inequalities?
Understanding the sources of inequality is key to design policy responses. They include:• Associated with growth processes and changes in
return to assets such as education and productive capital
• Inefficient public investments• Insufficient investment in social protection • Rising out-of-pocket costs for basic services,
particularly health are a growing concern. • Access to quality basic services often depends on
ability to pay
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Working outline• Human Development Outcomes in Vietnam• Why should we be concerned with inclusiveness of
growth? • How inclusive has Vietnam's growth trajectory
been?• What are the constraints to growth? How are
inequalities affecting the pattern and pace of growth?
• Why is Vietnam’s growth trajectory becoming less inclusive?
• Towards A More Inclusive Growth Path
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Theme 2: Enhancing Voices and Choices fora Prosperous Future for All
• Economic growth is fundamentally important for human development, but it does not automatically result in decreased inequalities and human development of all.
• Rising inequalities are among the current top concerns in Vietnam
• Different degrees of participation in the growth process result in different human development opportunities.
• The people participation is affected by the structural barriers in the economic, social, environmental and political domains.
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Why has the theme been chosen?• High levels of human development cannot be achieved
when some groups and individuals are vulnerable and excluded and when some groups face barriers to their participation in economic, social, cultural, and political life.
• Identify vulnerable groups.• Identify factors contributing to vulnerabilities. • Inform development of relevant policies and
institutional changes that help people take advantages of opportunities and participate, shape and ultimately benefit from public policies.
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PovertyPoverty in 2010 GSO-WB
MethodologyOfficial Poverty Rate (%)Poverty
Rate (%)Extreme Poverty Rate (%)
All Vietnam 20.7 8.0 14.2
Urban 6.0 1.5 6.9
Rural 27.0 10.7 17.4
Red River Delta 11.4 2.8 8.4
East Northern Mountains
37.7 17.9 24.2
West Northern Mountains
60.1 36.5 39.4
North Central Coast 28.4 9.7 24.0
South Central Coast 18.1 5.9 16.9
Central Highlands 32.8 17.0 22.2
Southeast 8.6 3.1 3.4
Mekong Delta 18.7 4.8 12.6
Ethnic Minorities 66.3 37.4 52.0
From: World Bank, ‘Well Begun, Not Yet Done: Vietnam’s Remarkable Progress on Poverty Reduction and the Emerging Challenges’, 2012.
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From: World Bank, ‘Well Begun, Not Yet Done: Vietnam’s Remarkable Progress on Poverty Reduction and the Emerging Challenges’, 2012.
Poor still depend on agriculture
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Core questions to be addressed under the Theme 2
• Who are those 'beneath the averages'? Why a broader human development model should be adopted to identify those who are vulnerable and excluded?
• How do those 'beneath the averages' experience inequality? What are the key characteristics and manifestations of inequality from human development perspective?
• What are the institutional, policy, attitudinal and other drivers of poverty and inequality in Vietnam? Are they different across different social groups, households, regions and communities?
• Do the current policies and programs addressing poverty and inequality work?
• What institutional, policy and other changes are needed to ensure that growth benefits vulnerable groups, reduce poverty and inequality? What should be done to ensure that those 'beneath the averages' are actively included into the development process?
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Human Development and Social Inclusion
• Human development which is seen as ‘the expansion of people’s freedoms to live long, healthy and creative lives; to advance other goals they have reason to value; and to engage actively in shaping development equitably and sustainably on a shared planet. People are both the beneficiaries and the drivers of human development, as individuals and in groups’.
• It does not deal only with national incomes but focuses rather on creating an environment in which people can develop their full potential and lead productive, creative lives in accord with their needs and interests.
• HD approach will demonstrate that income-based measures of poverty are insufficient for capturing the depth and breadth of the deprivations in Vietnam today.
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Identifying vulnerabilities and factors contributing to them
• The NHDR team will identify those groups that are 'beneath the averages‘. Such dimensions as income levels, employment, access to education, health and social services, climate change, levels of participation in decision making and governance, urban-rural differences will be explored.
• The root causes of vulnerability and inequality lie in failures in policies and institutions. The political, economic and social processes that lead to inequalities will be examined.
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Working Outline• Human Development in Vietnam: What is Hiding
Behind the Averages?• What Are the Measures of Inequality and
Vulnerability? • Vulnerable Groups: Who Are They and Why They
Should Be Included into the Development Process? • What are the Barriers to Reduction of Inequality in
Vietnam?• What Institutional and Policy Changes are Needed to
Ensure that HD Benefits All and that Everybody Contributed to Development?
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Theme 3: Green growth for human development in Vietnam
• Vietnam is facing a wide range of environmental challenges, including pollution and rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions from power generation and energy consumption.
• Climate-related shocks and disasters caused losses of an estimated 1-1.5% of Vietnam GDP annually over the past two decades.
• The acceleration of industrialization and urbanization will continue to have negative effects on natural resources and environmental quality, unless critical policies are reformed and practices are changed.
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Why has the theme been chosen?
• Vietnam agreed in 2012 on the Green Growth Strategy (GGS) for 2011-2020 and vision to 2050, which is building on the national Climate Change Strategy (2011) and the Strategic Orientation for Sustainable Development (2004), which is also known as the Viet Nam Agenda21.
• The NHDR will introduce a concept of Green Growth and demonstrate that its adoption should help Vietnam in dealing with some of its main development challenges, including pollution and rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions from power generation and energy consumption, as well as inefficiencies in such sectors as manufacturing and transport.
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Core questions to be addressed under the Theme 3
• How do the environmental changes affect HD in Vietnam?• How people’s choices do and can change the environment?
What is the concept of Green Growth and what does mean for realities of Vietnam?
• What would be the impacts of adopting a Green Growth model for Vietnam in terms of sustainable human development and in particular its impact on the poor and most vulnerable groups? Can economic growth be sustained and environmental aspects addressed at the same time?
• What are the main institutional and policy roadblocks to adopting a Green Growth model for Vietnam?
• What institutional and policy reforms and changes are needed to implement a Green Growth model in Vietnam?
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Human Development and Green Growth• The green growth approach seeks to harmonize
economic growth with environmental sustainability, while improving the eco efficiency of economic growth ‐and enhancing the synergies between environment and economy. Core elements of definitions of green growth:
• environmentally sustainable economic progress • growth that is efficient in its use of natural resources,
clean in that it minimizes pollution and environmental impacts
• linked with other fundamental development issues, including economic development, equity, social development and human security
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Environment and Development• Promoting human development requires
addressing sustainability and this can and should be done in ways that are equitable and empowering.
• Environmental degradation intensifies inequality through adverse impacts on already disadvantaged people while inequalities in human development amplify environmental degradation.
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Some specific areas• Preventing the impacts of climatic stresses and
disasters, especially on rural livelihoods• Strengthening natural resource management
including for example forest protection and regeneration
• Fiscal policies such as indirect subsidies to fossil fuels and the limited scope of environmental taxes
• Energy production and energy use; land management
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Working outline• Human Development Outcomes in Vietnam:
Sustainability Perspective• Sustainable Human Development and Green
Growth: Two Complimentary Concepts• Benefits of Green Growth for Vietnam• Institutional and policy roadblocks to adopting a
Green Growth model for Vietnam• What are the constraints to growth? How are
inequalities affecting the pattern and pace of growth? Recommendations.
