IDEAS ON HOW THE CCP CAN SURVIVE CHINA’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION THAT WILL HAPPEN AROUND 2020

Prof. Dr. Hugo de GARIS

Contents of Talk

a) Principles of Transitologyb) Applying Transitological Ideas to Chinac) Plan for the CCP to Survive China’s Democratic Transition

“TRANSITOLOGY”(the key word of this talk, google it)

= a branch of political science

that studies the transitions between one-party dictatorships and multi-party democracies

a) Principles of Transitology

“Transitology” is a branch of political science that studies the transition of one party dictatorships to multi party democracies.

Over the past 50 years, about 100 countries have made thistransition, i.e. at about a rate of 2 countries per year.

In 2010, about 120+ countries (of about 200) are democracies.

2/3 of Asian countries are multi party democracies.

Large data bases have been constructed to collect the transition experiences of these many individual nations.

What has been learned from these 100+ transitions?

a)The main lesson learned is that a country will not switch froma one party dictatorship to a multi party democracy with regularelections, unless it is rich enough,

i.e. it has to pass the “democracy threshold” of about $6000-$8000 per year per person.

b) The rise of the middle class is critical. Once a sizable fraction of the population of a country is university educated, it assertsits values onto the culture. It demands to be heard and to havethe right to elect its leaders.

If the leaders do a bad job, the middle class insists on the rightto replace them with alternative leaders from another party. Thisis the basic idea of Rousseau’s “Social Contract”.

c) In about 2/3 of the cases of the transitions of the past 20 years,a “democratic faction” within the ruling dictatorial party, seizedpower during a crisis, and then created democratic institutions,especially a multi party system, rule of law, and periodic elections.

d)The remaining 1/3 were “people power” transitions, in whichmass demonstrations in the streets pushed the dictatorial partyout of power.

e) The “democratic faction” approach is generally less violent thanthe “people power” approach.

b) Applying Transitological Ideas to China

The transitologists base their ideas on the experiences of about 100 countries, and hence have real authority in their predictions.

What can they predict about the future transition of China to democracy?

i) China today (2010) is too poor to be a democracy ($3500/yr/p)

China is still about a decade away (at least in the eastern cities)from being rich enough to have a large enough middle class topush effectively for democracy.

China has not yet passed the “democracy threshold” of $6000-$8000/yr/p

ii) However many cities in eastern China will reach this threshold in about 10 years or so - they will pass the “democracy threshold”.The richest cities in China, e.g. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, Xiamen, etc, are already (2010) over this threshold value.

iii) There are about 100-200 million middle class Chinese citizens in 2010. In 5-10 years, this number should rise to over 300 million, and most of them will be in the eastern cities, which do not havethe right to vote for their leaders, unlike the village peasants in the central and western parts of China who already elect their village leaders.

iv) About 200 million Chinese are now rich enough to travel internationally. Since 2/3 of countries in Asia are now democraciesespecially, Taiwan, Japan, etc, these Chinese tourists will be influenced by the life style and political systems of their neighbors.

Other Factors Pushing China into Democracy

a) The Internet. China has more internet users (Sept 2010, 400M) than any other country. The internet teaches the Chinese population that 2/3 of countries are democracies, and that dictatorships are only for poor countries.

b) Foreign travel. As more 100s of millions of Chinese in the coming decade travel to democratic countries, they will be influenced by democratic lifestyles.

c) Neighboring democratic countries. A growing proportion of countries neighboring China have already become democracies, which then put moral pressure on China to do the same.

d) Dying beliefs. As Chinese get better educated, they abandon old (totalitarian) beliefs, e.g. as happened with slavery, witchcraft.

e) Odd Man Out. 90% of the world’s population living outside China are already living under democratic governments. This puts powerful moral pressure on China to conform to the worldcommunity’s norms (i.e. democratic government). The Chinesegovernment is the “odd man out” on the world stage.

f) Punishment. Now that China is the world’s second largest economy, the world community will increasingly punish the Chinese government for its massive crimes (the 80 million people it killed, its laogai (some 1000+ of them across the country), itssuppression of basic human rights. A clear example of this was the awarding of the Nobel Peace prize to LIU Xiaobo in 2010 by a European country. This was a clear message from the democraticworld community to the Chinese government - “Your values areconsidered disgusting by the world community.”

China

Rest of World

NonDemocracy

Non Democracy (10%)

Democracy (90%)

China (dictatorship)USA (democracy)France (democracy)UK (democracy)South Korea (democracy)Germany (democracy)Italy (democracy)South Africa (democracy)Brazil (democracy)Japan (democracy)Argentina (democracy)Mexico (democracy)Australia (democracy)India (democracy)Poland (democracy)Canada (democracy)Russia (democracy)Turkey (democracy)Saudi Arabia (soon to be democracy)EU (democracy)

The G20 Countries

democrat

democrat

democrat

democrat

democrat

democratdemocrat

democrat

democrat

dictator

Some G20 Presidents

The 3 Great Tyrants of the 20th Centuryand the Number of Millions of People they Killed

70,000,000

50,000,00060,000,000

STALIN HITLER

MAO

The Chinesegovernment’sdecision to putMao’s face on the RMB is the moral equivalentof the Europeansputting Hitler’sface on the Euro.

When will the transition to democracy occur in China?

The graph below shows that by about 2040, the whole planetwill be democratic. China will democratize before the Arabsand Blacks, because it is growing so much faster economically.

Percentage of Nations that are Dictatorships

195086%

200137%

1950 2001 2040

Year

Percentage of Dictatorial Nations vs. Time

Considering the two arguments given previously, i.e.

a) There will be enough middle class Chinese in the easterncities to push for democracy by about 2020.

and

b) The global democratic process predicts that by about 2040, there will be no one party dictatorships left. Since China is growing faster than the Black and Arab countries, which are still non democratic, China will pass the “democratic threshold” before them, i.e. before 2020, thus -

it is likely that China will be a democracy within 10-15 years, i.e.by around 2020.

What consequences will this have for the survival of the CCP?

The CCP has two main options.

a) Retire b) Reform

a) The Retire Option

If the CCP continues with a policy of “business as usual”, thenit is likely that a “people power” political movement will push theCCP out of power, probably with some violence, and the CCP will die, it will retire.

b) The Reform Option

If the CCP wants to survive China’s democratic transition, it willneed to become a democratic party itself. It will have to reform.

Appealing to the CCP’s Self Interest

The various democratic parties of China (currently under CCPcontrol) should appeal to the CCP’s self interest if the CCP wants to survive China’s transition to democracy, which is likely tooccur around 2020.

The next generation of CCP leaders (now in their 50s) could become the leaders of a new democratic party that can advertizeto the Chinese public -

“Do you want your country run by amateurs, and see the world’shighest economic growth rate evaporate?”

With a new party name, and new flag, purged of Mao, and corruptors,these leaders could be “old wine in new bottles”.

The Importance of a “Smooth Transition” Plan for the CCP

One of the major goals of the various Chinese democraticparties could be the creation of a transitological plan for the CCP(if it does not already have one).

Such a plan should appeal to the self interest of the leaders of theCCP, and motivate them to reform their party into a democraticparty.

The alternative for these leaders is to be pushed (violently?) out of power, and probably before 2020, a mere 10 years away, given China’s economic growth rate.

A smooth transition from a one-party to a multi-party system willmean less violence and less chaos for the Chinese people.

c) Plan for the CCP to Survive China’s Democratic Transition

When China becomes a democratic country, that will mean that “freedom of speech” and “rule of law” will become the norm.

i) With freedom of speech, the horrors committed by the CCP’s founder, Mao ZeDong, will become widely known. Accordingto recent biographies (e.g. Chang) he killed about 70 million people, more than Stalin/Hitler, which makes him history’s greatest tyrant.

The CCP will then have to totally dissociate itself from Mao.It will need to take his face off the country’s money, and pull down all portraits and statues of him.

ii) The party will probably have to change its name, so as to givethe Chinese public the message that the party has changed itspolicy. An appropriate new title would be the “Chinese SocialDemocratic Party (CSDP)”.

“How can the CCP stay in power after the transition to democracy?”

1. Study the internet to find transitological plans for China.

2. Pick the most appropriate, most realistic one.

3. Implement it.

If no such plan exists (hard to imagine) then :-

1. Set a date for national elections, e.g. X years in the future.

2. Allow rival political parties to be formed and give them media time to make their case.

3. Allow freedom of the press and the internet.

4. Systematically purge and punish the corruptors from the CCP. and advertise these purges, to give the public the idea that the

CCP is reforming itself vigorously, to stay in power.

6. Make a strong case to the public that the CSDP is the only party in the country with real experience of government. “Do you want your country run by amateurs and see the world’s

highest economic growth rate evaporate?”

7. Bring in the rule of law, train more lawyers, make modern laws, commercial, civil, etc. Modernize the courts.

8. By the end of the X years, the CSDP should be a modern political party.

9. Hold elections and bring China into the modern world.

The democratization of China, will be one of the greatest politicalevents of the 21st century. It will allow China to become a respected member of the world community.

At the present time, the western democracies look upon China, aspoor, dirty, corrupt, lazy, poorly educated, disorganized, and brutal,& hence is not worthy of respect. It is seen as a “third world nation”.

Once China becomes a democracy, relations with the 2/3 of thecountries in the world that are already democracies, will be muchhealthier. Democratic nations do not go to war against each other,their voting populations do not tolerate it.

It is probable that the 21st century will be China’s. It will becomethe “USA” of the 21st century. A necessary step towards that newdominance is that it become a modern, democratic nation, respected by the other democratic nations of the world.

Take Home Message

CCP Leaders !

Learn the lessons of transitology !

If you want to stay in power after China becomes a democraticcountry, then create a transitological plan now for the CCP, to create a smooth transition to a democratic China, with the CCP reformed into a (social) democratic party (CSDP)

If not, then the CCP will be pushed out of power by about 2020by China’s rising middle class, as has happened all over the world.China is rapidly approaching the $6000-$8000/yr/p “democraticthreshold”

China’s democratic parties can help the CCP create this plan !

Lemmings and Squirrels

The leaders of the CCP can be divided into two main camps –

“lemmings” “squirrels”

Lemmings are herd animals that follow each other blindly. They commit mass suicide by following each other blindly over the cliff.

Squirrels save nuts in the autumn. They plan ahead to survive the harshness of the winter.

The “CCP lemmings” do not plan for the democratic revolution whenit comes. They are committing suicide. They will kill the CCP.

The “CCP squirrels” strategize for a smooth transition to democracy by having a plan. They may even win the elections when they come.

XI Jinping

Future president of China 2012- ?

Lemming or Squirrel?

Will he preside over theCCP’s retirement or itsreform?

Books

a) China’s Democratic Future : How it will happen and where it will lead

Bruce GILLEY Columbia University Press, 2004

ISBN 0-231-13084-8

b) Mao : The Unknown StoryJung CHANG, Jon HALLIDAY,

Knopf, 2005,ISBN 0-679-42271-4

c) Hungry Ghosts : Mao’s Secret FamineJasper BECKEROwl Books, 1998

ISBN 0-8050-5668-8