Ice Core Evidence for

Solar Forcing of the Polar Atmosphere

Paul Andrew Mayewski

Presentation Outline

Introduction to ice core reconstruction of past atmospheric

circulation systems.

Ice core contributions to the understanding of climate change.

Holocene abrupt climate change in the polar regions.

Solar forcing of the polar atmosphere over the last 600 years.

Antarctica

Anthropogenic

Ice

SUN

NO

SONO

nssCanssMg

ssSO

MSAssNa

ssMgssCl

ssCa

ssK

Be

nssCl nssSO

Earth SystemsAtmosphere

Cryosphere

Biosphere

Hydrosphere

Lithosphere

Climate Proxy Archives ice sheets/glaciers ocean corals lake tree peat

sediments sediments rings

Tracerscosmic-rayproduced isotopes10

marinesourceinfluences

volcanicsourceinfluences

terrestrialsourceinfluences

biomassdynamics

nutrientcycling

anthropogenicinfluences

StratosphereTroposphere

circulation volcanic eruption precipitation

deposition human activities mixing

SNOW

wind

4

4

4

3

3

nssK

nssK

NH

4

NH4NH

4

Processes

10

Be

nssK

Emission and Source Strength *Circulation Fingerprinting

Ice Core Measurements

IC soluble species (Na, K, Cl, MSA, Mg, Ca, NO3, SO4, NH4)

MS isotopes ( D, 18O, d, S, N)

ICPMS trace elements (Fe, Al, Ca, Sr, Ba, V, U, Ti, La, As, Cr, Co, Mn, Cs, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm,

Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu, Cd, Sb, Pb, Tl, Bi, Cu, Zn, S, Zn, more)

GCMS (selected organic acids, PCBs)

Particle counter (mass, size separation)

SEM EDAX (tephra, pollen, diatoms)

Radionuclide counters (tritium, total B, 210Pb)

Ice core processing

Multi-Parameter Identification of Annual Layers

Calibrated to Volcanic and Radioactive Fallout Events

International Trans

Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE)

Sample Resolution

- 10-50 samples / year

CALIBRATED ICE CORE CLIMATE PROXIESICE CORE CHEMISTRY (10-50 samples/year) vs.

Surface - 500hPa, winds, temperature, precipitationfrom NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalysis and station data

EXAMPLES OF REFERENCES

Mayewski et al., 1984, 1993, 1997, 2004;

Meeker & Mayewski, 2001; Kreutz et al., 2000;

Souney et al., 2001; Kang et al. 2002

Southeast Asian Low vs Mount Everest

Global Reconstruction of

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

* The atmosphere transfers heat and moisture

110,000

Years

of

Climate

Change

TEMPERATURE

ATMOSPHERIC

CIRCULATION

Grootes et.al.,

1997

Mayewski et.al.,

1993,1997

Post-1992

Pre-1992

HOLOCENE

CLIMATE

VARIABILITY

Verified by examination of

50 multi-medium

paleoclimate proxies(Mayewski et al., 2004)

GISP2

(O’Brien et al.,

1995;

Mayewski et al.,

1993, 1997)

Alpine

Glacier Extent

(Denton &

Karlen, 1972)

Circulation

Ppt

CH4

Temp

0.18

0.22

0.26

0.3

0.34

-500

-400

-300

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

High GISP2 EOF1 (Cl)

(more North Atlantic

sea ice = wet west Asia)

Low GISP2 EOF1 (Cl)

(less North Atlantic

sea ice = dry west Asia)

12

3

456

7

PPNB

730 AD

1315

BC

1940

BC

2250

BC

2800

BC

6100

BC

6700

BC Dead Sea levels

in masl:

A

MWP 4100 BC750 BC

(after Frumkin et al.,

1994)

LIA

B

C D

77

8

0.22

0.3

-500

-400

-300

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

(after Klein, 1982, 1986

Low stage

High stage

HOLOCENE CLIMATE and MAJOR DISRUPTIONS TO CIVILIZATION

GISP2 Sea Ice Reconstruction

Dead Sea Levels and Disruptions to Civilization

After Mayewski and White, 2002; Mayewski and Weiss (unpublished)

MM

MORE SEA ICE

“SHORT SUMMERS”

WET WEST ASIA

LESS SEA ICE

“LONG SUMMERS”

DRY WEST ASIA

LIA

4200

CLIMATE CHANGE

and

FORCING OVER

the LAST

10,000 YEARS

Mayewski et al., 2004

8200LIA

Holocene GISP2 Polar Circulation Index (PCI)

- Solar Variability Association

Mayewski et al. (1997)

LIA coolingLIA wetterLIA drier

this study

Figure 1

a

c

f

h

d

b

e

g

Maasch et al. (2005)

SOLAR PROXY (10Be)

vs CLIMATE PROXIES

LIA IS A MAJOR EVENT

ONSET FIRST IN ANTARCTICA

9000 - 0 YEARS AGO

POLAR ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

(<30 yr filtered out)

Mayewski et al.(2005)

16

20

24

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

LAW DOME NO3 (10yr, ppb)

Year

Marine source

ssNa vs

850 hPa height

r = -0.75

p<0.001

Kreutz et al., 2000

1

3

5SIPLE DOME/ITASE nssCa (10yr, ppb)

Crustal source nssCa

vs 850 hPa

Zonal Wind

r = 0.49

p<0.001 Yan et al,

2005.

Westerly Strength (850 hPa Zonal wind)

Westerly Strength (850 hPa Zonal wind)

100

150

200SIPLE DOME ssNa (10yr, ppb)

Surface Pressure (eg.Amundsen Sea Low)

Inland source NO3 vs

Surface pressure

gradient r = -.52

p<0.005Goodwin et al.,2003

and

850 hPa Zonal Wind

850 mb zonal

wind anomaly

surface pressure

anomaly

surface zonal

wind anomaly

4

2

0

-4

-2

4

2

0

-8

-6

-4

-2

me

ters

pe

r se

co

nd

mil

lib

ars

Figure 1Siple Dome

WAIS ITASE

Law Dome

and Region

Siple Dome

WAIS ITASE

NCEP Calibrated sub-annual

1948-2002 Full Series (10 yr resampled)

Mayewski et al. (2005)

Multi-variate EOF correlation

Linear correlation

10Be vs Siple Dome and ITASE nssCa

850 hPa ZONAL WIND PROXY

r = -0.55

p <.01

max corr. lag 0-10 years

10Be vs Law Dome NO3

850 hPa ZONAL WIND PROXY

10Be vs Siple Dome ssNa

850 hPa HEIGHT PROXY

r = 0.39

p <.01max corr. lag 0-10 years

300

400

500

-0.2

0

0.210Be

EOF 1

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

0

2

4-0.2

0

0.2

SD nssCa

16

20

24

-0.2

0

0.2LD NO3

100

140

180

-0.2

0

0.2

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

SD ssNa

r = 0.61

p <.01

max corr. lag 0-10 years

Circulation Proxy vs Solar Proxy

AD 1400 - present(Mayewski et al., 2005)

Solar Proxy

nssCa Proxy for Zonal Westerly Strength (850 hPa)

Increase nssCa (increase zonal wind)

Increase nssCa - increase solar irradiance

Decrease NO3 (increase zonal wind)

Decrease NO3 - increase solar irradiance

Na Proxy for Surface Pressure, Amundsen Sea Low

Decrease Na (increase surface pressure,

weaken Amundsen Sea Low)

Decrease Na - increase solar irradiance

(Mayewski et al., 2005)

300

400

500-0.2

0

0.2

10Be

EOF 1

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

0

2

4-0.2

0

0.2

SD nssCa

16

20

24 -0.2

0

0.2

LD NO3

100

140

180-0.2

0

0.2

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

SD ssNa

10Be Proxy for Solar Variability10Be decrease - increase solar irradiance

NO3 Proxy for Zonal Westerly Strength (850 hPa)

EOF1 (in solar irradiance perspective) vs.

Ozone Impact on Circulation>UV (solar max) = > O3

= > dynamically driven high latitude warming in lower stratosphere

= cooler troposphere

= > tropospheric temperature gradient

Aspects demonstrated at this meeting by: Kunihiko Kodera, Judith Lean, Katja Matthes and Drew Shindell

From NCEP ReanalysisSON 850 hPa (1975-2002)

Zonal Wind vs Solar Cycle

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

0.345 p =.990

MECHANISM and MODERN EXAMPLE

850 mb zonal

wind anomaly

surface pressure

anomaly

surface zonal

wind anomaly

4

2

0

-4

-2

4

2

0

-8

-6

-4

-2

mete

rs p

er

second

mil

lib

ars

Crustal source nssCa vs

850 hPa Zonal Wind

r = 0.49

p<0.001

Siple Dome

WAIS ITASE

Inland source NO3 vs

Surface pressure

gradient r = -.52

p<0.005850 hPa Zonal Wind

Law Dome

and Region

Marine source

ssNa vs

850 hPa height

r = -0.75

p<0.001

Siple Dome

WAIS ITASE

NCEP ReanalysisSON 850 hPa (1975-2002)

Zonal Wind vs Solar Cycle

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

0.345 p =.990 VS

EOF1 of Southern Hemisphere

surface pressure

SOLAR INFLUENCE:

INCREASE IRRADIANCE

INTENSIFY ZONAL WIND

EOF2 of Southern Hemisphere

surface pressure

SOLAR INFLUENCE:

INCREASE IRRADIANCE

WEAKEN AMUNDSEN SEA LOW;

Solar Forcing Summary for the Southern

Hemisphere Based on Multiple Ice Cores

Covering the Last 600 Years