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Hurricanes …no two are the same…. Bill Read Director National Hurricane Center. Category 1. Within 75 miles. Category 2. Within 75 miles. Category 3. Within 75 miles. Category 4. Within 75 miles. Remember the Gulf Developers. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Hurricanes…no two are the same…
Bill ReadDirector
National Hurricane Center
Category 1
Within 75 miles
Category 2
Within 75 miles
Category 3
Within 75 miles
Category 4
Within 75 miles
Remember the Gulf Developers
• 1932 – TS 180 miles south of GLS – Cat 4 at landfall less than 36h
• 1943 , Alicia – both formed south of NOLA landfall less than 72h
• Audrey June 1957 – Cat 4 less then 72h after forming
• Anita (5), Celia (4), Camille (5) and Opal (4) all less then 96h
Category 2 MOM Galveston Basin
Mostly barrier island and inland marsh inundation
While Surge is our most recent focus, let’s not forget wind
Alicia Andrew
Potential wind threat from a Cat 4 at landfall
>125 mph
110 – 125 mph
90 – 110 mph
75-90 mph55-75 mph
Wind impacts
Rita forecast 150 mph 1 min average winds at landfall.
Gusts range 130-150 mph (1.5 x sustained)
Peak measured Gusts in Ike
The nightmare urban flood
Houston - June 8-9, 2001 Onset during
Friday evening About 2,000,000
folks experienced 10-15” rainfall in 6-12 hours
About 100,000 cars, 50,000 homes flooded
Loss of life (21) miraculously low considering scale of flooding
FRESHWATER 59%
WIND 12%SURF 11%
OFFSHORE 11%
TORNADO 4%OTHER 2%
SURGE 1%
1970-99 U.S. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEATHS
(Pre Katrina)
Over 800 of the 1000 deaths in 2008 were due to rainwater flooding
Reason for large increase
What’s the real hazard?
• We insist on living near the coast• Building codes less than even modest
hurricane winds (consider: Ike top 3 loss list)• Land use tied to the 100 year event - Flood
Insurance not “required” if outside 100 year.• People begin to forget within 5 years (IEM risk
management)
Thanks
…and each one has a unique history