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Hurricanes 2014 Dan Reilly National Weather Service Houston/Galveston

Hurricanes 2014

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Page 1: Hurricanes 2014

Hurricanes 2014

Dan ReillyNational Weather Service

Houston/Galveston

Page 2: Hurricanes 2014

Outline• Review of Hurricane Hazards: surge,

wind, rain, tornadoes; which ones are a threat to your location?

• Ways to monitor storms during the hurricane season

• 2014 Hurricane Season forecast

Page 3: Hurricanes 2014

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Potential Hazards

Storm Surge Flooding Tornadoes

Flooding RainsDamaging Winds

Every storm is different as far as combination of hazards

TS Allison (2001)

Ike (2008), Carla (1961)

Alicia (1983)Andrew (1992)

Buelah (1967)

Page 4: Hurricanes 2014

Hurricane ThreatsSTORM SURGE – The abnormal rise in water level due to the storm (wind pushes water onto land); If the surge+tide (stormtide) is greater than your elevation you will have flooding

Storm Surge Example – hurricane makes landfall at high tide

Page 5: Hurricanes 2014

Hurricane Ike: Large Category 2 StormLarge Hurricanes Large Storm Surge!

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Bolivar Peninsula Friday morning

Lesson learned: if under an evacuation order leave as soon as possible, don’t wait too long!

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Category 1 Damage in Houston

Typical damage with Ike around Houston: downed or snapped Trees, some roof damage

Hurricane Wind Damage

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Category 1-min. Sustained Winds (mph)

Storm Examples Wind Impacts

Tropical Depression

Less than 39 mph Relatively minor

Tropical Storm

Between 39 and 73 Allison Can be significant

1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce

Claudette 2003 some damageHumberto 2007

2 96 - 110 Georges 1998Ike 2008

Extremely dangerous; will produce extensive damage

3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage Katrina 2005Rita 2005

4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damageCarla 1961

5 > 156 Andrew 1992 Catastrophic damageCamille 1969

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

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Greens Bayou, Home Owned Estates – June 10, 2001

Rainfall From Tropical Cyclones

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Rule of Thumb: Divide storm speed into 100 to get potential rainfall!

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05/02/2023 Weather.gov/houston 18

From Ashley and Ashley, 2008; 50 years of data across the U.S.

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Stay Aware of What is Going on in Tropics• Before storm develops look at Tropical Weather

Outlook to see which disturbances may develop• Once the storm forms…

– Look at the detailed forecast for your area; NWS will forecast wind speed, rainfall amount, surge height and tornado threat

– All storms are different; will next one be more of a TS Allison, Hurricane Ike or Hurricane Andrew?

Houston Weather Forecast Office: http://weather.gov/houston National Hurricane Center: http://hurricanes.gov

Page 19: Hurricanes 2014

A Great Way to Stay Informed:Tropical Weather Outlook

Text Graphic

Identifies which disturbances have potential to become a tropical storm within 48 hours with a probability assigned to each.

Page 20: Hurricanes 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2013

Forecast Group Number of Named Storms

Number of Hurricanes

Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger)

Long-Term Average (1981-2010)

12 6.5 2

Weather Channel 16 9 5

Colorado State 18 9 4

National Weather Service 13-20 7-11 3-6

Cuba Institute 17 9

Impact Weather 16-20 7-9 2-4

Accuweather 16 8 4

Actual ? ? ?

How did the forecast turn out?

Page 21: Hurricanes 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2013

Forecast Group Number of Named Storms

Number of Hurricanes

Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger)

Long-Term Average (1981-2010)

12 6.5 2

Weather Channel 16 9 5

Colorado State 18 9 4

National Weather Service 13-20 7-11 3-6

Cuba Institute 17 9

Impact Weather 16-20 7-9 2-4

Accuweather 16 8 4

Actual 13 2 0

Forecast was off! Numbers well below forecast, especially hurricanes.

Page 22: Hurricanes 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2014

Forecast Group Number of Named Storms

Number of Hurricanes

Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger)

Long-Term Average (1981-2010)

12 6.5 2

Colorado State 9 3 1

Weather Underground 7-9 1-3 0-2

NOAA 8-13 3-6 2

Actual ? ? ?

Climate Pattern called El Nino setting up which normally limits number of storms; also tropical waters cool for this time of year; still it only takes one and Alicia and Andrew occurred during “quiet” years

Is this information useful? Are we in the clear this year?

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El Nino and La Nina

Climate.gov

Usually means fewer Atlantic storms

Usually means more Atlantic storms

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Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!)

It Only Takes One

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Weather Information from NWS Houston/Galveston

• Web: weather.gov/houston• Twitter: @NWSHouston• Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.HoustonGalveston.gov

• Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSHouston

Forecast details presented graphically through web and social media