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Hurricane Hazard Depiction for Standardized Air Force Weather Forecast Charts. Capt Kevin LaCroix 1LT Christopher Wireman 28 th Operational Weather Squadron. Overview. 28 th Operational Weather Squadron SE CONUS mission Hurricane Hazards Turbulence Icing Lightning/Thunderstorms. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Hurricane Hazard Depiction for Hurricane Hazard Depiction for Standardized Air Force Standardized Air Force
Weather Forecast ChartsWeather Forecast Charts
Capt Kevin LaCroixCapt Kevin LaCroix
1LT Christopher Wireman1LT Christopher Wireman
2828thth Operational Weather Squadron Operational Weather Squadron
• 28th Operational Weather Squadron SE CONUS mission
• Hurricane Hazards– Turbulence– Icing– Lightning/Thunderstorms
Overview
TAF LocationsTAF Locations
Advisory/Warning LocationsAdvisory/Warning Locations
Weather
support to 90
units at 70+
locations (AF,
Army, Guard,
and Reserve)
22 TAF sites Flight weather
briefings 1500+ aircraft
supported Flight hazards
graphics Tropical
Cyclone Threat
Assessment
SE CONUS OperationsSE CONUS Operations
• Air Force Weather Technical Library (AFWTL) located in Asheville, NC houses nearly 250,000 volumes; serves the information needs of meteorologists, climatologists, space scientists, computer scientists and experts in all other disciplines of interest to military meteorology.
• Holdings include foreign language documents, that they translate if needed.
• Requested they search all holdings for Tropical storms, turbulence, icing and severe weather.
• 88 documents were found in this search including several not held by the AFWTL.
• All references were either peer-reviewed, or major meteorological publications by AMS, Royal Met. Soc. etc.
Air Force Weather ResearchAir Force Weather Research
Storm Motion
Hurricane Horizontal StructureHurricane Horizontal Structure
Eye -> 5-30km Diameter
Eyewall -> 5-40km
Inner Rainbands -> Eyewall - 100km
Outer Rainbands -> ~150km - 300km
Right Front Quadrant
Right Rear Quadrant
Left Front Quadrant
Left Rear Quadrant
Eye/EyewallOuter Rainbands
Outer Rainbands
18 km
16 km
Hurricane Vertical StructureHurricane Vertical Structure
Radius of Eyewall is ~10-Radius of Eyewall is ~10-15km wider at top than at the 15km wider at top than at the
surfacesurface
Eyewall Updrafts Eyewall Updrafts < 8 m/s< 8 m/s
Outer rainband Outer rainband Updrafts < 10 m/sUpdrafts < 10 m/s
UpdraftsUpdrafts
Dry, warm Dry, warm subsiding subsiding airair
Outer rainbands can sometimes include Outer rainbands can sometimes include thunderstorms with high CB’s called “Hot thunderstorms with high CB’s called “Hot Towers” these reach more than 10 miles Towers” these reach more than 10 miles high, and result in very heavy precipitationhigh, and result in very heavy precipitation
Hurricane TurbulenceHurricane Turbulence
LightLight
ModerateModerate
SevereSevere
ExtremeExtreme
SFCSFC
500500
CONTCONT
Percent Percent EncounterEncounter
99.4%99.4%
0.5%0.5%
0.0015%0.0015%
0.0000033%0.0000033%
Only Only encounter encounter severe or severe or extreme extreme turbulence turbulence in lowest in lowest 1km of 1km of eyewalleyewall
Moderate Moderate Turbulence Turbulence only in the only in the strongest strongest convectionconvection
Turbulence Turbulence not not prevalent prevalent because of because of lack of lack of shear, both shear, both horizontal horizontal and verticaland vertical
Hurricane Turbulence Cont.Hurricane Turbulence Cont.
Distance from Storm CenterDistance from Storm Center
00 1010 2525 100100 30030010102020
Sea Sea LevelLevel
MMbb LLeevveell
200200
400400
500500
850850
975975
Cross Cross section section locationlocation
Area of Area of ShearShear
Vertical Cross Section of HurricaneVertical Cross Section of Hurricane
Eye/EyewallOuter Rainbands *
Outer Rainbands
0˚
- 4˚
Hurricane IcingHurricane Icing
Supercooled Supercooled Droplets only in Droplets only in
strongest updraftsstrongest updrafts
-10˚Area of possible
Icing 160160
200200
> FL 130> FL 130
UpdraftsUpdrafts
ClearClear
MixedMixed
- 40˚
-15˚
Icing mostly clear due to large drop size and Icing mostly clear due to large drop size and lack of supercooled droplets. Weak updrafts lack of supercooled droplets. Weak updrafts also limit icing. Severe Clear icing in eyewall, also limit icing. Severe Clear icing in eyewall, typically well above research aircraft typically well above research aircraft penetration level.penetration level.
* Different Vertical Scale* Different Vertical Scale
Average Average Freezing levelFreezing level
Hurricane Icing ForecastHurricane Icing Forecast
160160
200200
Severe ClearSevere Clear
Severe MixedSevere Mixed
200200
500500
Icing in Icing in hurricanes is all hurricanes is all inside inside thunderstorms. thunderstorms. How it could be How it could be depicted is depicted is shown here. shown here. Temperature Temperature guidance for guidance for more accurate more accurate height height representation is representation is given on given on previous page.previous page.
Icing Potential AreaIcing Potential Area
Hurricane LightningHurricane Lightning
• Eyewall Flash Eyewall Flash Rate: < 60 flashes Rate: < 60 flashes per 100 sq km/dayper 100 sq km/day
• Inner Rainband: Inner Rainband: < 20 flashes per < 20 flashes per 100 sq km/day100 sq km/day
• Outer Rainband: Outer Rainband: > 300 flashes per > 300 flashes per 100 sq km/day100 sq km/day
• Typical Typical Thunderstorm: > Thunderstorm: > 36,000 flashes per 36,000 flashes per 100 sq km/day100 sq km/day
• Equates to 4-6 Equates to 4-6 times more chance times more chance for lightning in for lightning in outerband than outerband than eyewalleyewall
Greatest Flash Greatest Flash Density in Density in Right Front Right Front QuadrantQuadrant
Hurricane Hurricane Flashes: ~ 4400 Flashes: ~ 4400
per dayper day
Storm Motion
Hurricane Thunderstorm ForecastHurricane Thunderstorm Forecast
Thunderstorm Thunderstorm Coverage for Coverage for FITL ChartFITL Chart
520520
350350
550550
FEWFEW
ISOLDISOLD
600600
SCTSCT
NSWNSW
NMRSNMRS
Max TopsMax Tops
CoverageCoverage
600600
NMRSNMRS
Aviation Hazards on ButtonsAviation Hazards on Buttons
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Tropical Cyclone Forecast RepresentationRepresentation
•OWS worldwide have standardized map backgrounds, colors, and symbology so that a forecaster will be familiar with any products on a OWS webpage no matter what theater they are in, or what OWS they are at
• Following slides show designated process for depicting Tropical Cyclones on OWS Charts
• Process uses 150-300km radius from storm center as area of major outer ring convection.
• Limitations to depicting features:
• Forecaster experience – want same “rules” for drawing storms to be worldwide
• Map Scale – eyewall process to small to accurately draw on our scale
• Technical limitations to graphics program at OWS, Leading Environmental Analysis and Display System (LEADS)
Low Level TurbulenceLow Level Turbulence
IcingIcing
ThunderstormsThunderstorms
Contact Information:
Capt Kevin LaCroix28th Operational Weather Sq.
905 Patrol Rd.
Shaw AFB, SC 29152
(803)895-0654
Questions?