HSR in Turkey

8/8/2019 HSR in Turkey

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HierarchyHierarchy of of Public Investments in TurkeyPublic Investments in Turkey

Action Plan of 60Action Plan of 60 ththTurkish GovernmentTurkish Government

Medium Term Invest.Medium Term Invest.Program (2010Program (2010 --2012)2012)

Strategic Plan ofStrategic Plan of MoTMoT(2009(2009--2013)2013)

Strategic Plan of TCDDStrategic Plan of TCDD(2010(2010--2014)2014)

9. Development Plan of9. Development Plan of

Turkey (2007Turkey (2007

--2013)2013)

3 Year Investment3 Year InvestmentProgram ofProgram of MoTMoT

3 Year Investment3 Year InvestmentProgram of TCDDProgram of TCDD


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Prepared by State Planning Organisation,Prepared by State Planning Organisation,

Approved by Grand National Assembly, Approved by Grand National Assembly,Sets the vision of Turkey,Sets the vision of Turkey,States macroeconomic projections and targets,States macroeconomic projections and targets,

Defines the strategy to reach targets in line withDefines the strategy to reach targets in line withEU accession process.EU accession process.

99 thth Development PlanDevelopment Plan

(2007(2007 --2013)2013)

Passenger transportation with highspeed train will be started on the core network consisting of the stanbul-Ankara-Sivas, Ankara-Afyon- zmir and

Ankara-Konya corridors.


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Prepared for 3 years,Prepared for 3 years,

Sets the vision of Sets the vision of MoTMoT,,Defines tangible targets,Defines tangible targets,

Assign investment projects to specific targets Assign investment projects to specific targets

Strategic Plan of Strategic Plan of

Ministry of TransportMinistry of Transport

In order to increase number of railway passengers

by 50%,1.503 km new high speed train lines will be built on the Bulgarian Border- stanbul-Ankara-Sivas,Ankara-Afyon- zmir and Ankara-Konya corridors.


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Reference Documents forReference Documents for

High Speed Railway PlanningHigh Speed Railway Planning

Strategy for TransportStrategy for TransportMaster PlanMaster Plan

1010thth Transport ForumTransport Forum

Transport InfrastructureTransport InfrastructureNeeds AssessmentNeeds Assessment

Study (TINA)Study (TINA)


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Strategy for Transport Master PlanStrategy for Transport Master Plan

Prepared by Istanbul Technical University,Prepared by Istanbul Technical University, Very detailed study (13 working groups, 32 Very detailed study (13 working groups, 32

academicians and 30 advisors)academicians and 30 advisors) Analyses current situations of transport modes, Analyses current situations of transport modes,Depicts problems and solutions,Depicts problems and solutions,Sets out strategy and provides inventory forSets out strategy and provides inventory forpreparation of the transport master plan.preparation of the transport master plan.

The most suitable line for high speed railway is Ankara-Istanbul line. Moreover, new high speed railway investments should be placed on the east-west corridor for the integration with TEN-T network.


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Proposed EastProposed East --West HSR CorridorWest HSR Corridor


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1010 thth Transport ForumTransport Forum

Sep 27Sep 27

Oct 01 2009Oct 01 2009

Established by law as a national platform,Established by law as a national platform,

Aim is Aim is to debate and set the strategic goals forto debate and set the strategic goals forthe Ministry of Transport,the Ministry of Transport,Special interest was given to 2023 targets,Special interest was given to 2023 targets,24 workshops carried out for 6 transport modes,24 workshops carried out for 6 transport modes,Senior representatives from governments,Senior representatives from governments,

industry, civil societies and scientificindustry, civil societies and scientificcommunities participated.communities participated.


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8 /53 8

KrklareliPityon

M a n d r

a

U z u n k

p r

e h l i v

a n k y

Adapazar

Band rma

Balkesir

Manisa

Denizli

Z o n g u l d a k

MALATYA

Alayunt

K t a h

y a

M e y d a n e k b e z

KONYA

Karaman

KAYSERElaz

MuTatvan Van

Kapky

Diyarbakr Kurtalan

GaziantepMardin NusaybinNarl

Kahramanmara

Mersin

ankr

Samsun

AmasyaKars

ErzurumErzincanIrmak

Polatl

Van Gl

S T A N B U L

e r k e

z k y

( S i r k

e c i )

B u r d u r

I s p a r t a

skenderun

Aydn

Batman

zmitKarabk

Uak

Yerky

Divrii

SVAS

ADANA

ANKARA

AFYONZMR

Aliaa

Kapkule

Yozgat

BURSAOSMANEL

ANTALYA

ESKEHR

Tiflis

KerkkMusul

Ba dad

Halep

8

5th TARGETTo finish ongoing high speed rail lines (1.311 km)until 2012.

HEDEF 2023

HSR LINES LENGTHAnkara - stanbul 533 km

Ankara - Konya 212 km

Ankara - Sivas 460 km

Bursa - Osmaneli 106 km

TOTAL 1.311 km

TARGETS for 2023

: CONVANTIONAL LINES

: HIGH SPEED LINES


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KapkuleKrklareli

U z u n k

p r

P e h l i

v a n k y

Arifiye Adapazar

Band rma

Balkesir

Manisa

Denizli

MALATYA

Eskiehir

Alayunt

K t a h

y a T a

v a n l

F e v z i p a a

Konya

Karaman

Ulukla

KayseriMu Tatvan Van

Kapky

Yolat

DiyarbakrKurtalan

GaziantepMardin

NusaybinNarl

K.mara

Mersin Yenice

ankr

S a m

s u n

aramba

G e l e

m e n

Amasya

Hanl Bostan kaya

etinkaya

Kars

ErzurumIrmak

Van Gl

Ortaklar

Ske

Tire

demi

S t l a B u r d u r

I s p a r t a

K a r a k

u y u

Eirdir

MenemenTorbal

skenderun

Aydn

Turhal

Uak

Horasan

Divrii

ADANA

SVAS

Zonguldak

ANKARA

ZMR

ErzincanSincan

YozgatYerky

Yldzeli

AFYON

Polatl

nn

OsmaneliBursa

obanbey

Karkam

O s m a n i y e

K m r l e r

Antalya

Palu

orum

Bingl

Gllk

STANBUL e

r k e z k

y

T e k i r

d a

H.PaaRota Havza

Nide

zmit D e r i n c e

Halep

Batum

KerkkMusul

BULGARSTAN

YUNANSTAN

GRCSTAN

ERMENSTAN

NAHVAN

RAN

IRAKSURYE

andarl

HopaSarp n

y e

F a t s a ldr

Trabzon

Aralk

Cizre

.Urfa

Manavgat

Aksaray

Nevehir

Ereli

Bart n

Karasu

Alanya

6th TARGET To complete core high speed rail network(6.792 km) until 2023.

TARGETS for 2023

: CONVANTIONAL LINES

: HIGH SPEED LINES


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Transport Infrastructure NeTransport Infrastructure Ne ee ds Assessmentds Assessment

Study (TINA Study (TINA , 2007, 2007 ))

FFundedunded by European Unionby European Union ,,

Carried out by TINA ViennaCarried out by TINA Vienna

GmbhGmbh

,,

Objectives are:Objectives are:to develop a multito develop a multi --modal transport network modal transport network

(Core Network) to extend the European(Core Network) to extend the EuropeanUnion's TENUnion's TEN --T into Turkey,T into Turkey,preparation of a traffic forecast with a timepreparation of a traffic forecast with a time

horizon until 2020,horizon until 2020,assessment of the projects on the coreassessment of the projects on the corenetwork,network,

set up a GIS data management system.set up a GIS data management system.


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TraTra ffic Forecast inffic Forecast in

HSR Feasibility StudiesHSR Feasibility Studies

Existing passenger traffic is obtained from traffic counts orExisting passenger traffic is obtained from traffic counts orstatistics for road, rail and air transport.statistics for road, rail and air transport.

Diverted traffic values are calculated through Value of Diverted traffic values are calculated through Value of Time analysis.Time analysis.Generated traffic are calculated as a percentage of Generated traffic are calculated as a percentage of diverted traffic.diverted traffic.Demographic factors such as population, GDP, vehicleDemographic factors such as population, GDP, vehicleownership and past traffic increase rates areownership and past traffic increase rates are analyzedanalyzedand necessary correlation coefficients are obtainedand necessary correlation coefficients are obtained ..

Then, future traffic increase rates are calculated throughThen, future traffic increase rates are calculated throughcomputer models based oncomputer models based oncorrelation coefficients,correlation coefficients,UN forecast values for population increase rates,UN forecast values for population increase rates,

European GDP increase rates foreseen,European GDP increase rates foreseen,


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TraTra ffic Forecast inffic Forecast in TINA TINA

Based on traffic flows between domestic zones,Based on traffic flows between domestic zones,Base year (2004) data taken from available observed dataBase year (2004) data taken from available observed dataor simulated when necessaryor simulated when necessary ,,1 socio1 socio --economic scenario and 3 infrastructure scenarioseconomic scenario and 3 infrastructure scenarioswere defined for 2020,were defined for 2020,To generate passenger forecasts, base year O/D matrixTo generate passenger forecasts, base year O/D matrix

was adjusted based on forecasts of sociowas adjusted based on forecasts of socio --economic andeconomic anddemographic conditions at the regional level,demographic conditions at the regional level,Then, generalized travel costs were adjusted based on theThen, generalized travel costs were adjusted based on the

assumed changes to the networks and other levelassumed changes to the networks and other level --of of --service components,service components,Resulting passenger O/D matrices were assigned to the 3Resulting passenger O/D matrices were assigned to the 3different networks scenarios.different networks scenarios.Results of the forecasts were used to assess Core Network.Results of the forecasts were used to assess Core Network.


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SocioSocio --Economic ScenarioEconomic Scenario

~Population~~Population~Population growth rate between 1995 and 2004 wasPopulation growth rate between 1995 and 2004 wasalmost 2%,almost 2%,

Population growth was assumed to continue as seen inPopulation growth was assumed to continue as seen inthe table below,the table below,Resulting population estimation for Turkey was 86 millionResulting population estimation for Turkey was 86 millionin 2020 and 93 million in 2030.in 2020 and 93 million in 2030.


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SocioSocio --Economic ScenarioEconomic Scenario

~GDP and Car Ownership~~GDP and Car Ownership~

TurkeyTurkey s GDP increased almost 10% in 2004, 5.9% in 2003s GDP increased almost 10% in 2004, 5.9% in 2003and 7.8% in 2002.and 7.8% in 2002.

The rate of 6% was chosen based on this trend, inThe rate of 6% was chosen based on this trend, inconsistent with OECD forecasts.consistent with OECD forecasts.To estimate car ownership rate, a logistic model was usedTo estimate car ownership rate, a logistic model was usedwith saturation around 700 cars per 1000 inhabitants,with saturation around 700 cars per 1000 inhabitants,The model projectedThe model projected a very significant increase froma very significant increase from80/1000 in 2004 to 600/1000 in 2030.80/1000 in 2004 to 600/1000 in 2030.


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Traffic Analysis ZonesTraffic Analysis Zones


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Passenger Transport ModellingPassenger Transport Modelling

Classical four stage modeling was used:Classical four stage modeling was used:trip generation,trip generation,trip distribution,trip distribution,modal split,modal split,traffic assignmenttraffic assignment

Considered modes for passenger transport modelingConsidered modes for passenger transport modelingwere road (subgroups: bus and car), rail and air.were road (subgroups: bus and car), rail and air.The trip purposes for segmentation of the demand sideThe trip purposes for segmentation of the demand sidewere business trips, holiday trips and private trips.were business trips, holiday trips and private trips.


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Trip GenerationTrip Generation

Numbers of trips per trip purpose were estimated forNumbers of trips per trip purpose were estimated foreach traffic zone from available data,each traffic zone from available data,

Number of inhabitants by gender and age classes, carNumber of inhabitants by gender and age classes, carownership, employment and regional economicownership, employment and regional economicperformance were used to determine the tripsperformance were used to determine the tripsgenerated in a region.generated in a region.

The trip purposes for segmentation of the demand sideThe trip purposes for segmentation of the demand sidewere business trips, holiday trips and private trips.were business trips, holiday trips and private trips.


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To calculate generated tripsTo calculate generated trips category analysiscategory analysis approachapproach waswas incorporatedincorporated ,,

Equation used for trip generation is:Equation used for trip generation is:

There were 81 zones, 18 age groups, 3 trip purposesThere were 81 zones, 18 age groups, 3 trip purposesand 2 gender groups. Data taken from census stats.and 2 gender groups. Data taken from census stats.There was noThere was no data on longdata on long --distance mobility behavior.distance mobility behavior.Therefore, studies of West European countries wereTherefore, studies of West European countries weretransferred to Turkey.transferred to Turkey.To decrease errors,To decrease errors, Turkish urban travel studies andTurkish urban travel studies andregional GDP valuesregional GDP values used to adjust the trip frequencyused to adjust the trip frequency

per regionper region


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NonNon --linear Adjustment of Trip Demand between rich and poor Regionslinear Adjustment of Trip Demand between rich and poor Regions


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Average Trip Rates Average Trip Rates

Average trip rates for inter Average trip rates for inter --regional tripsregional trips

These values refer to round trips,These values refer to round trips,Only motorized interOnly motorized inter --regional trips,regional trips,The applied trip rates vary considerably between richThe applied trip rates vary considerably between richand poor regionsand poor regions


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Calculation of Attracted TripsCalculation of Attracted Trips Attractiveness of region j is determined for a specific trip pur Attractiveness of region j is determined for a specific trip pur pose ppose p(e.g. business) and the relating structural variable (e.g. GDP,(e.g. business) and the relating structural variable (e.g. GDP, numbernumberof inhabitants) using the following equation:of inhabitants) using the following equation:

If more than one structural data variable is applied for one purIf more than one structural data variable is applied for one pur pose,pose,the attractiveness of a region j for trip purpose p is given bythe attractiveness of a region j for trip purpose p is given by followingfollowingequation:equation:

To take into account some of the interTo take into account some of the inter --regional trips remainregional trips remain caughtcaught inside in large traffic cells, an additional adjustment was perf inside in large traffic cells, an additional adjustment was perf ormed:ormed:


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Trip DistributionTrip Distribution

In this step,In this step, a certain share of thea certain share of the trips estimated in onetrips estimated in oneregion was distributedregion was distributed to other regions.to other regions.To do this, the attractiveness of a region was quantifiedTo do this, the attractiveness of a region was quantifiedby taking into considerationby taking into consideration mainly sociomainly socio --economic andeconomic andtourismtourism --related information.related information.Considering attractiveness of a destination and travelConsidering attractiveness of a destination and travelimpedances between regions (monetary costs of aimpedances between regions (monetary costs of a

journey, travel time), the trips generated within an origin journey, travel time), the trips generated within an originregion are distributed to destination regionsregion are distributed to destination regionsThus,Thus, an O/D matrix was generated which contains thean O/D matrix was generated which contains thepassenger volumes between an origin region and apassenger volumes between an origin region and a

destination region.destination region.


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Modal SplitModal Split





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Traffic AssignmentTraffic Assignment





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TraTra ffic Forecast Resultsffic Forecast Results