How the British Will Travel 2010 - SETE library... · 1.2 Thirst for Faraway Destinations 4 1.3 Size and Importance 5 1.4 Main Regions and their Travel Intensities 11 1.5 Main Regions

How the British Will Travel 2010

Research Report

An der Wolfskuhle 48 33619 Bielefeld

Germany

©Tourism Intelligence International www.tourism-intelligence.com


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Tourism Intelligence International Tourism Intelligence International is a leading hotel and resort research and consultancy company with offices in Germany and Trinidad. This report — How the British Will Travel 2010 — is another in a series of tourism market analyses. Tourism Intelligence International is the publisher of Tourism Industry Intelligence, a monthly newsletter that provides analyses of and tracks the key trends and developments in the international travel and tourism industry. Other reports from Tourism Intelligence International include: Successful Hotels and Resorts – Lessons from the Leaders €1,295.00 Successful Tourism Destinations – Lessons from the Leaders €1,295.00 How Germans will Travel 2005 €695.00 How the British will Travel 2005 €695.00 How the Japanese will Travel 2007 €795.00 How the Americans will Travel 2007 €695.00 Impact of Terrorism on World Tourism €495.00 The Berlin Report: A New Tourism Scenario – Key Future Trends €499.00 Tourism Intelligence International: German Office Trinidad Office An der Wolfskuhle 48 50 Richmond Street 33619 Bielefeld Port of Spain Germany Trinidad, West Indies Tel: (49) 521 16 38 83 Tel: (868) 625 44 43 Fax: (49) 521 16 38 84 Fax: (868) 625 44 20 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.tourism-intelligence.com © 2005 by Tourism Intelligence International. All rights reserved. Terms of Use and Copyright Conditions The material contained in this report has been derived from statistical, trade, company and other sources, including Tourism Intelligence International estimates. All information is verified to the best of the authors’ and publisher’s ability. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, Tourism Intelligence International cannot accept liability for any data herein, any interpretation made therefrom, or for any loss arising from reliance thereon. Tourism Intelligence International reserves all copyright under international copyright law. How the British Will Travel 2010 may not be copied, stored, reproduced or published in any format, in whole or in part, by any means — electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise — or disseminated to any third party without prior written permission of Tourism Intelligence International. Published November 2005 ISBN 978-976-95061-6-8 Cover designed by Lonsdale Saatchi & Saatchi Advertising Limited, produced and printed by Tourism Intelligence International.

www.tourism-intelligence.com ©Tourism Intelligence International


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Contents About the Authors Executive Summary 1.0 The British Travel Market 1

1.1 Global Significance 3 1.2 Thirst for Faraway Destinations 4 1.3 Size and Importance 5 1.4 Main Regions and their Travel Intensities 11 1.5 Main Regions of England 13 1.6 Income Levels and Economic Growth Rates by Region 20 1.7 Unemployment Levels by Region 24 1.8 Most Lucrative Regions 25 1.9 Stayover and Cruise Arrivals by Region 27

1.10 Implications for Your Business

29

2.0 The British Traveller 31 2.1 An Ageing Population 32 2.2 Travel and Spending by Age Group 34 2.3 Holiday Habits of High Earners 36 2.4 Profession 36 2.5 Changing Household Structure 37 2.6 Participation in Leisure Activities 41 2.7 Who are the British Tourists? 42 2.8 Attitudes Toward Sustainable Tourism 45 2.9 Essential Elements of an Enjoyable Holiday 47

2.10 Factors That Can Spoil a Holiday 49 2.11 What the British do on Holiday 51 2.12 Implications for your Business

59

3.0 British Travel Patterns 63 3.1 Travel Market Growth 64 3.2 Growth in Holidays Abroad 65 3.3 Main and Additional Holiday Trips 70 3.4 Day Trips, Short Breaks and Long Holidays 70 3.5 Short-haul vs Long-haul 72 3.6 Independent Travel 74 3.7 Time of Travel 75 3.8 Mode of Travel 76 3.9 Where the British Stay 77

3.10 Average Length of Stay 79 3.11 How Much the British Spend 80 3.12 Where the British Stay Longest and Spend the Most 85 3.13 Implications for Your Business 86



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4.0 Most Preferred Holiday Types 91

4.1 Cruising 92 4.2 Short Breaks 97 4.3 All-Inclusives 99 4.4 Special Interest/Niche Markets 105 4.5 Independent Travel 116 4.6 Emerging Trends and Implications for Your Business

135

5.0 Where the British Travel 139 5.1 Destination Britain 139 5.2 Destination Europe 141 5.3 Destinations Outside of Europe 145 5.4 The Americas 146 5.5 Africa 150 5.6 East Asia & Pacific 152 5.7 Middle East 153 5.8 South Asia 154 5.9 Comparative Growth among Regions and Countries

155

6.0 British Travel Forecast to 2010 161 6.1 Major Determinants and Influences of Travel Demand 161 6.2 Economic Performance 166 6.3 Unemployment 169 6.4 Exchange Rate Movements 171 6.5 Why Forecast 174 6.6 Forecasting Methodology 175 6.7 Data and Data Limitations 176 6.8 Forecast of Total British Arrivals to 2005 177 6.9 Forecasts for Individual Countries 179

6.10 Summary

206

7.0 The Travel Business in Britain 207 7.1 Airlines 207 7.2 Charter Operators 211 7.3 Low-Cost Airlines 212 7.4 Passenger Growth 214 7.5 Tour Operators 217 7.6 Industry Structure 224 7.7 Impact of Technology on Tour Operators

228

8.0 The Irish Outbound Travel Market 251 8.1 Introduction 251 8.2 Population 252 8.3 Economy 253 8.4 Travel Abroad 254 8.5 Destinations 259 8.6 Inclusive Tours 262 8.7 Tour Operators 263 8.8 Transport Operators 264



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8.9 Media 269 8.10 Outlook

269

9.0 Future Outlook 271 9.1 Preferred Destinations 2010 271 9.2 Countries with the Most Rapid Growth in the Next 5 Years 273 9.3 Trends 2010 274 9.4 What Tourism Destinations Need to do to Attract More British

Tourists 281

9.5 What are the Three Holiday Types to be in Greatest Demand in the Next 5 Years

283

9.6 Destinations of the Future 285 9.7 Summary 286



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List of Figures and Tables

Page No. Figure 1.1 Growth of UK and World Tourists, 1970-2004 3 Figure 1.2 Growth of UK and World Expenditure on Tourism, 1980-

2004 4

Table 1.3 Number and Share of the World’s Top Four Markets in 2002

5

Table 1.4 Population and Travel Intensities of Selected European Countries and the USA, 2004

6

Figure 1.5 European Populations Compared, 2004 7 Table 1.6 A Comparison of Paid Holidays by Country, 2002 8 Figure 1.7 Travel Intensity of Selected European Countries and the

USA, 2004 9

Figure 1.8 Development of British Holiday Propensity, 1971 - 2010 10 Figure 1.9 Map of UK & Ireland 12 Table 1.10 Main Regions at a Glance (2003) 13 Table 1.11 Britain’s Largest Cities, 2003 15 Table 1.12 Gross Value Added by Region, 2001 21 Table 1.13 Gross Value Added per Capita by Region, 2001 22 Table 1.14 Average Weekly Earnings by Region, 2002 23 Table 1.15 Unemployment Rates by Region, 2003 (Spring quarter) 24 Table 1.16 Adults Taking a Holiday by Region of Domicile, 2004 25 Table 1.17 Overall Ranking of Regions 26 Table 1.18

Breakdown of GB Travellers Abroad by Region of Residence, 2002

28

Figure 1.19

Breakdown of Visits Abroad by UK Residents by Region of Residence, 2002

28

Figure 1.20 Cruise Passengers by Region of Residence, 2003 and 2002 29 Figure 2.1 British Population by Age Group, 1901 – 2021 33 Figure 2.2 Number of Visits by Age Group, 2003 35 Figure 2.3 Spending (£ million) by Age Group, 2003 36 Figure 2.4 Number of British Households, 1961-2004 38 Table 2.5 Size of British Households, 1961-2004 38 Figure 2.6 Types of British Households, 1961-2004 39 Figure 2.7 Lone Mothers with Dependent Children by Marital Status

2003 40

Table 2.8

Top Ten Sports and Physical Activities for Men and Women: Rank order for participation in the four weeks before interview, 2002

42

Figure 2.9 Essential Elements of an Enjoyable Holiday 48 Figure 2.10 Essential Elements of an Enjoyable Holiday (By Holiday

type and cost 49

Figure 2.11 What can spoil a Holiday 51 Figure 2.12 Top Ten Activities Undertaken by the British in Australia,

2004 52

Figure 2.13 British Expenditure in Australia, 2004 53 Figure 2.14 Main Factors in UK Tourists’ Decision to Visit Barbados,

2004 55

Figure 2.15 UK Tourists’ Participation in Activities in Barbados (%) 56



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Figure 2.16 Percentage Share of Daily Expenditure per Visitor in Barbados

57

Figure 2.17 UK Tourists’ Willingness to return to Barbados (%) 58 Table 3.1 The British Holiday Travel Market, 1970-2010 64 Table 3.2 Foreign and Domestic Travel Compared, 1965-2003 66 Figure 3.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Travel (million) 68 Figure 3.4 Expenditure on Foreign vs. Domestic Travel (£ million) 68 Table 3.5 Expenditure on Foreign and Domestic Travel Compared,

1965 to 2003 69

Figure 3.6

UK Residents’ Holiday Visits Abroad by Length of Stay, 2003

71

Table 3.7 UK Residents’ Holiday Visits Abroad by Length of Stay, 1998-2003

72

Table 3.8 Short and Long Haul Holidays Taken by UK Residents, 1967-2003

72

Figure 3.9 Short and Long-Haul Holidays Taken by UK Residents, 1968-2002

74

Figure 3.10 Independent vs. Inclusive Travel, 2003 75 Figure 3.11

Visits Abroad by UK Residents by Quarter, 2003 (thousands)

76

Figure 3.12 Share of Visits Abroad by Mode of Travel, 2003 77 Figure 3.13

Where the British Stay on Holiday 1978, 1988 and 1998 compared

78

Table 3.14 Where the British Stay on Holidays Abroad 78 Figure 3.15 Average Length of Stay by Purpose of Trip, 2003 79 Figure 3.16 Average Length of Stay by Area Visited, 2003 80 Figure 3.17 Spending on Travel Abroad, 2002 81 Figure 3.18 Amount Spent by the British on Travel Abroad, 1969-2003 81 Table 3.19 Amount Spent by the British on Travel Abroad, 1970-2010 82 Figure 3.20 Average Cost of Holiday Abroad per Visit, 1998-2003 83 Figure 3.21 Average Spending Per Person Per Visit by Main Area, 2003 84 Figure 3.22 Average Spending Per Person Per Visit by Purpose and

Year, 2003 84

Table 3.23 UK Residents’ Average Length of Stay and Average Daily Expenditure, 2003

85

Figure 4.1 Most Favoured Holiday Types in the Next Five Years 91 Table 4.2 Cruises Taken by UK Residents, 1995, 2002 and 2003 94 Figure 4.3 Most Popular Cruise Destinations, 2003 96 Figure 4.4 Breakdown of Short Breaks by Purpose of Trip, 1998-2002 98 Table 4.5 Top 20 City Breaks in 2003 (and 2002 in parentheses) 99 Table 4.6 Strengths and Weaknesses of All-Inclusives 101 Table 4.7 Activities by Category Offered by UK Tour Operators 105 Figure 4.8 Top Ten Golfing Nations in Europe, 2004 108 Table 4.9 Number of British and Irish Golfers and Courses, 2004 110 Table 4.10 Top Ten Wedding and Honeymoon Destinations, 2004 112 Table 4.11 When and Where to Wed 113 Figure 4.12 The UK Overseas Winter Sport Market, 2003/04 116 Figure 4.13 Independent vs. Inclusive Travel, 1998-2002 118 Table 4.14 Top 20 Destinations for Inclusive Holiday Visits by UK

Residents, 2002 120



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Table 4.15 Top 20 Destinations for Independent Holiday Visits by UK Residents, 2002

121

Table 4.16 Pressures on the Package Holiday 123 Table 4.17 Timeshare Markets and Destinations, 2002 131 Figure 4.18 Emerging Trends in the British Market, 2005 136 Table 5.1 Share of Domestic Trips and Trips Abroad 1965-2002 140 Table 5.2 Declining Preference for Travel Within Britain, 1989-2002 141 Figure 5.3 Share of UK Trips Abroad, 2002 142 Figure 5.4 Development of European Market Shares, 1992-2002 142 Figure 5.5 Country Share of UK Trips Abroad to Europe, 2002 143 Table 5.6 UK Arrivals (trips abroad) to Selected European

Destinations, 2002 144

Figure 5.7

Comparative Growth in UK Arrivals to Selected European Destinations, 1998-2002

145

Figure 5.8 The UK Outbound Market Beyond Europe, 2002 146 Figure 5.9 UK Arrivals to the Americas 147 Figure 5.10 Comparative Growth in UK Arrivals to the Americas, 1988-

2002 147

Figure 5.11 UK Arrivals to Selected Caribbean Destinations, 2002 148 Figure 5.12 Comparative Growth in UK Arrivals to Selected Caribbean

Destinations, 1988-2002 149

Figure 5.13 UK Arrivals to Selected Destinations in Central and South America, 2002

149

Figure 5.14

Comparative Growth in UK Arrivals to Selected Destinations in Central and South America, 1988-2002

150

Figure 5.15 UK Arrivals to Selected African Destinations, 2002 151 Figure 5.16 Comparative Growth in UK Arrivals to Selected African

Destinations, 1988-2002 151

Figure 5.17

UK Arrivals to Selected Destinations in East Asia & the Pacific, 2002

152

Figure 5.18

Comparative Growth in UK Arrivals to Selected Destinations in East Asia & the Pacific, 1988-2002

153

Figure 5.19

UK Arrivals to Selected Destinations in the Middle East, 2002

153

Figure 5.20

Comparative Growth in UK Arrivals to Selected Destinations in the Middle East, 1988-2002

154

Figure 5.21 UK Arrivals to Selected Destinations in South Asia, 2001 155 Figure 5.22 Comparative Growth in UK Arrivals to Selected

Destinations in South Asia, 1988-2002 155

Figure 5.23

Comparative Growth in UK Arrivals to Long-Haul Destinations, 1988-2002

156

Table 5.24

Number of UK Arrivals to Main Regions of the World and Average Annual Rates of Growth, 1998-2002

157

Table 5.25 Number of UK Arrivals Ranked by Size, 2002 158 Table 5.26 Number of UK Arrivals Ranked by Average Annual Rate of

Growth 1998-2002 159

Figure 6.1 United Kingdom Economic Performance 168 Figure 6.2 Correlation of Economic Performance with Key Travel

Indicators 169

Table 6.3 Comparative Growth of Unemployment and British 170



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Travellers 1990 – 2010 Table 6.4 Exchange Rates between the Pound Sterling and the US

dollar, 1990–2010 171

Figure 6.5 Comparison of Growth in British Travel and Exchange Rate Trends, 1975 – 2004

172

Table 6.6 Select Exchange Rates against the British Pound Sterling, 1985 - 2004

173

Figure 6.7 Forecast of Growth of British Outbound Travellers by 2010 178 Figure 6.8 UK Outbound Arrivals (millions) 1990 – 2010 179 Figure 6.9 Forecast of British Travellers to Turkey 180 Figure 6.10 Forecast of British Travellers to Cyprus 181 Figure 6.11 Forecast of British Travellers to Belgium 182 Figure 6.12 Forecast of British Travellers to Netherlands 183 Figure 6.13 Forecast of British Travellers to Germany 184 Figure 6.14 Forecast of British Travellers to Ireland 185 Figure 6.15 Forecast of British Travellers to France 186 Figure 6.16 Forecast of British Travellers to Spain 187 Figure 6.17 Forecast of British Travellers to Canada 188 Figure 6.18 Forecast of British Travellers to USA 189 Figure 6.19 Forecast of British Travellers to Barbados 190 Figure 6.20 Forecast of British Travellers to Jamaica 191 Figure 6.21 Forecast of British Travellers to Brazil 192 Figure 6.22 Forecast of British Travellers to Kenya 193 Figure 6.23 Forecast of British Travellers to Tunisia 194 Figure 6.24 Forecast of British Travellers to Tunisia 195 Figure 6.25 Forecast of British Travellers to China 196 Figure 6.26 Forecast of British Travellers to Hong Kong 197 Figure 6.27 Forecast of British Travellers to Indonesia 198 Figure 6.28 Forecast of British Travellers to Japan 199 Figure 6.29 Forecast of British Travellers to New Zealand 200 Figure 6.30 Forecast of British Travellers to Singapore 201 Figure 6.31 Forecast of British Travellers to Thailand 202 Figure 6.32 Forecast of British Travellers to Egypt 203 Figure 6.33 Forecast of British Travellers to UAE 204 Figure 6.34 Forecast of British Travellers to India 205 Figure 7.1 Shares of Major UK Scheduled Operators, 2003 208 Table 7.2 Top 10 UK International Scheduled Operators, 2003 208 Table 7.3 IATA Members Ranking: Passengers Carried on

International Routes, 2002 209

Table 7.4 Top 10 UK International Charter Operators, 2003 212 Table 7.5 Terminal Passengers at Main UK Airports, 1975-2003 214 Table 7.6 Passenger Traffic at UK Airports, 2003 215 Figure 7.7 Growth in Terminal Passengers at Main UK Airports, 1975-

2003 216

Figure 7.8 Shares of Passenger Traffic at Main UK Airports, 2003 216 Table 7.9 International Scheduled and Chartered Passenger Services

by UK Airlines, 1992-2003 217

Figure 7.10 Passengers Licensed to the Top 10 Groups and Companies at June 2004

223

Table 7.11 Licensed Passenger Capacity of the Top 10 Groups at June 224



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2004 and June 2003 Figure 7.12 Sales (€ Billion) of Top European Tour Operators, 2002 225 Table 7.13 Tour Operator Ownership Structure, 2004 225 Table 7.14 All in one Holiday Sites 235 Table 7.15 Eco – Tours Websites 236 Table 7.16 Skiing Holidays 237 Table 7.17 Worldwide Holidays 238 Table 7.18 Flight Booking 243 Table 7.19 Airlines Airports/Terminals 245 Figure 8.1 Estimated Population, 1998-2004 252 Table 8.2 Population of Main Provinces and Cities, 2002 253 Table 8.3 Gross Domestic Product (at current market prices), 1999-

2002 254

Table 8.4 Overseas Visits and Expenditure, 1995-2003 254 Table 8.5 Estimated Number of Overseas Visits by Irish Residents

Classified by Route of Travel and Reason for Journey, 1999-2003 (’000)

256

Table 8.6 Overseas Visits by Irish Residents - Estimated Average Length of Stay (nights) Classified by Route of Travel and Reason for Journey, 1999-2003 (‘000)

257

Table 8.7 Visits Abroad by Irish Residents - Estimated Expenditure (including International Fares) Classified by Route of Travel (€ million)

258

Table 8.8 Overseas Visits by Irish Residents - Estimated Expenditure (including International Fares) Classified by Reason for Journey (€ million)

258

Table 8.9 Visits by Irish Residents to the UK, 1999-2004 259 Table 8.10 Visits by Irish Residents to the UK by purpose of visit, 2002 260 Table 8.11 Visits by Irish Residents to the UK by Port of Entry, 2002 260 Table 8.12 Visits by Irish Residents to the UK by Spending and by Age

Group, 2002 261

Table 8.13 Combined Passenger Traffic at Dublin, Cork and Shannon Airports, 1999-2003

266

Table 8.14 Passenger Traffic at Dublin, Cork and Shannon Airports, 2003

266

Table 9.1 Top 10 destinations to be considered to be absolute winners 272 Table 9.2 Countries to Experience the Most Rapid Growth 273 Table 9.3 Kuoni Top 20 Holiday Destinations 278



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About the Authors Dr. Auliana Poon graduated with a B.A. (Honours) and an M.Sc. (Economics) from the University of the West Indies (Trinidad). She attended one of the leading European Schools, the Science Policy Research Unit at Sussex University (England), where she graduated with a D. Phil. (Tourism & Technology). She is the author of Tourism, Technology and Competitive Strategies which one reviewer claims “should certainly be on the compulsory reading list for all those seeking to advise and direct strategic plans for both old and new tourism destinations”. Auliana Poon held positions as Senior Economist at the Caribbean Tourism Organisation and Tourism Advisor in Belize, Central America. She heads Tourism Intelligence International. Auliana Poon led the team that developed the tourism policy and strategy for the new South Africa in 1996; developed strategies for trendsetting companies such as Sandals International (Jamaica) and Conservation Corporation (Africa); and designed the “tourism begins at home” programme that sparked the turnaround in the Bahamas tourism industry in the early 1990s. Eric Adams graduated with First Class Honours (Mathematics and Economics) from the University of the West Indies (Trinidad). He holds an M.Sc. in Actuarial Science from the University of Iowa (USA) and an MBA (Finance and Investments) from George Washington University (USA). Eric Adams is a Business Consultant specialising in the areas of tourism and financial forecasting, investments and financial IT systems development. Eric Adams is an Associate of the Society of Actuaries and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. He also lectures in tourism forecasting demand and has developed forecasts for tourism arrivals to the Caribbean and other territories. Johannes Spalburg has more than 15 years of international Sales & Marketing experience in the Hospitality & Travel Industry, while based in 5 different countries on 3 different continents (Europe, the Americas and Southern Africa). He holds an MBA in Hospitality Management from Cornell/Essex (IMHI, France) and speaks 6 (six) languages, including Dutch, English, French, German and Spanish, as well as Italian. Jo Spalburg joined the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO), the umbrella organization that represents the tourism interests of 33 Member States in the region. Based in London, he was responsible for developing, co-ordinating and implementing all strategic marketing activities for the region in Europe, until his departure in July 2003. Prior to joining the CTO, Jo Spalburg worked as Marketing Consultant for Horwarth International France (Paris) and during the previous 10 years, he occupied various Sales & Marketing positions - at Headquarters, Regional and Local level- for a number of international hospitality and travel firms, including: MKI Ltd – i.e. Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, South Seas Resorts, Renaissance Cruises, Pemberton Hotels and many other independent Hotels and Resorts- (London), ITT Sheraton Luxury Hotels (London), Jet Hotels (Air France Group, Paris), Hilton International France (Paris & Strasbourg) and Steigenberger Hotel Krasnapolsky (Amsterdam). Victor Curtin graduated with a First Class Honours Master’s Degree (Economics) from the National University of Ireland. After post-graduate study on a Ford Foundation fellowship in Athens, he joined the National Planning Institute in Ireland where he participated in a number of major economic and regional planning assignments. He subsequently joined KPMG in London as a management, later managing, consultant where he was engaged on a wide variety of consultancy assignments in Britain, Europe, Africa, Asia and the Americas, including a long-term position as Technical Adviser to the Barbados-based Caribbean Tourism Organisation. For the past 15 years, Victor Curtin has worked as a specialist tourism



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consultant in the areas of tourism policy, tourism planning, management information systems, product development and marketing, working on numerous engagements for the European Union, the World Tourism Organisation, the World Bank, the Commonwealth Fund for Technical Co-operation and other international and national organisations. In 1989, Victor Curtin was elected a Fellow of the Institute of Management Consultants. Kevon Wilson, graduated with Upper Second Class Honours from the University of the West Indies (St. Augustine, Trinidad) in 2000, after reading a Bachelor of Science degree in Management and Finance. Kevon Wilson is one of the Research Analysts for Tourism Intelligence International. His most recent assignment was in the Commonwealth of Dominica where he provided technical support to the Eco-Tourism Development Programme, a programme funded by the European Union and implemented by Tourism Intelligence International. Kevon Wilson is also a Senior Executive at an investment agency, in charge of Product Development and Administration. Prior to joining tourism Intelligence International, Kevon Wilson spent two years in London where, apart from pursuing his studies, he worked as a manager at one of the largest UK-based restaurant chains, JD Wetherspoon.



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Acknowledgements

In preparing this report, the authors would like to thank the Tourism Boards for the information that they have provided; the World Tourism Organisation for its kind assistance in supplying the data; Barbara Morris, from our German office, for her research assistance; Michelle Kam Hong, from our Trinidad office for her research assistance, and Roseline Poon, from our Trinidad office, for co-ordinating the production of the report.

© Tourism Intelligence International Executive Summary


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Executive Summary Tourism Intelligence International launches its new research, How the British Will Travel 2010, which examines and provides everything you need to know about the British and Irish markets. This New Research reveals that Britain is one of the most robust, dynamic and terror-resistant travel markets in the world. The British travelling population is expected to near the 75 million mark by 2010, compared with 64.1 million in 2004 as British travellers have access to more flights and destinations than any other country. Britain is a very important travel market. It is the third largest in the world, after the USA and Germany. In 2004, the British market generated some 64.1 million visits abroad in trips and £30.3 billion in expenditure. Growth of the British travel market has consistently outpaced that of the world, both in terms of arrivals and expenditure, through the 1990s. Britain has the fastest growing cruise market and the second largest in the world after the USA. Taking holidays abroad is a firmly established priority for most British consumers. Having a good holiday is the most important spending priority for the UK consumer after home ownership, and is considered an essential, rather than a luxury, commodity. In Britain, like Germany, taking one’s full holiday is socially acceptable. Unlike the Japanese and Americans, who have two to four weeks of paid holiday but do not use all of it, the British generally use all of their holiday entitlement. The British preference for holidaying abroad has increased by leaps and bounds. Just under half (47%) of all trips taken were spent abroad in 2003 compared with 14% in 1965. Since 1991, there has been a consistent increase in the number of British travellers. By 2004, there were 64.1 million British travellers. There has, however, been a decline in the number of longer (4+ nights) trips taken in favour of the shorter trips. While the proportion of those taking holidays abroad has remained relatively constant over the 1984 – 2003 period, the frequency of trip taking has increased. In the wake of both the first Gulf war and the terrorist attacks of 11th September 2001, as well as the recent War on Terrorism in Iraq, the most resilient market has been the British market, followed by Germany, the US and Japan. The British can be considered to be the hardiest of all travellers. Germans too are determined, while the Americans and Japanese tend to be more cautious. It took the British only eight months after the first Gulf War before arrivals to the Middle East reached pre-war levels. It took the Germans a full year to recover travel levels to the Middle East and it took the Americans and Japanese a full 19 months! The clear message is to focus marketing efforts on the hardy British travellers – the market that recovers the quickest after disruptive events such as 9/11, the second Gulf War and the Asian Tsunami.

Executive Summary © Tourism Intelligence International


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Britain is a very lucrative source market for many overseas destinations and even for destinations within the UK. Consider that: • The United Kingdom has a population of 59.3 million, the third largest population in

Europe; • The British are mature, demanding and experienced travellers with an enormous

appetite for travel; • The British market is very experienced in foreign travel and increasingly inclined to

seek out new, unexplored destinations; • The British pound is one of the strongest currencies in the world;

• The British economy continues to be one of the brightest spots in Europe;

• The British have a large number of paid holidays (four to six weeks per year); and

• It is socially acceptable for the British to take holidays.

• Growth of British outbound travel has consistently outpaced the world market since

1978. For all of these reasons, the British market will continue to grow. Investment in this market is very likely to pay off. It is important, however, to target “marketing spend” in the regions that are most likely to produce business. Britain’s nine regions are very diverse, having different levels of income, rates of growth, unemployment and propensities for travel. TII’s research demonstrates that the regions with the greatest travel market potential (in order of importance) are: • South East • London • North West & Merseyside • East • West Midlands The South East and London are two critically important regions for international travel. The UK population is concentrated in the South East, centred around London. This is also the wealthiest region, and has by far the best communications structure for international travel, with Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted and Luton airports all well placed to service the area. The demand for foreign travel is also concentrated in these regions. When targeting London, it is important to pay particular attention to the ethnic market as one-quarter of all Londoners belong to an ethnic minority group.



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There is no doubt that the British will continue to travel abroad in large numbers. However, British travellers are spoilt for choice. Remember that Britain has one of the largest airports and access to flights in the world. Tour operators are experienced packagers and sellers of destinations worldwide. Many destinations are competing for the British market. British consumers have a wide array of destinations from which to choose and are very experienced and demanding. Destinations will need to compete on value and be innovative in their product offer in order to sustain and win market share. The British population is ageing. The greatest increase in the next five years will be in those aged 50+, the post-war baby boomers. This is an age group where major lifestyle changes can be expected as children leave home, retirement approaches and grandchildren come into the picture. Travel suppliers will need to create/enhance products that cater to this mature market segment. Important demographic trends with implications for travel are as follows: • The over 60s age group will see the biggest growth. There will be a rise in the number

of retired men with spare time whose incomes are boosted by occupational pensions. • Britain will also have a more mobile population in their twenties, prepared to travel

extensively, including taking time off from work. Here, more adventurous learning experience-intensive options will have good growth.

• More couples are delaying having children, freeing them to spend more on holidays.

• Double income no kids (DINKS) households are an important travel market source.

• The increase in one-person households means there are many more individual one-

person households that will need to be targeted. One will need to target and reach each of these households individually.

• The increase in lone-parent households also has important implications for the travel

market. The types of services and activities provided for lone-parent households will need to be quite different from those provided to the standard couple-with-dependent children households.

• The increase in the average age of consumers in almost all major European economies

will have a major impact on tour operators and destinations. These demographic changes have key implications for future travel demand. It is likely that demand will shift away from price-sensitive, crowded beach areas to quality coastal developments, lakes and mountains, city breaks and higher-priced long-haul travel. Adults now entering the age 45-plus category are increasingly sophisticated travellers, empty nesters ready for wider experiences.



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There is a growing interest in outdoor activities, particularly walking. Those destinations that organise and provide such outdoor (soft, medium and hard) adventure and sport activities will benefit. It is necessary to understand the demographics of the British travel market and the trend toward the ageing population, but this is not sufficient. Understanding how British travellers think feel and behave and anticipating, meeting and exceeding their expectations is key to success in this market. In this regard, this new report from Tourism Intelligence International explores a number of critical aspects of British travel behaviour, their likes and dislikes on holiday as well what they actually do in a few of their favourite destinations like Australia, Barbados and South Africa. With regard to British travellers’ attitudes to sustainable development, Tourism Intelligence International launched UK tour operator surveys in May 2000 and again in September 2004, where 20 of the top 25 tour operators from the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) were systematically interviewed. Tour operators were asked to indicate their views on sustainable tourism. Both surveys revealed, interestingly, that tour operators would like to be involved in sustainable tourism. However, they indicated that their clients were more interested in the price of a holiday rather than in sustainability. According to one tour operator surveyed, passengers start out with good intentions and would like to feel that they are supporting sustainable tourism aims, but there are other things that come into play and sway them, like price. Very few passengers are looking for “green” holidays, although in the last two to three years there has been a growth in awareness. One tour operator indicated that there is definitely more interest in green destinations such as Alaska, Norway, the Amazon, Cape Horn, the Chilean Fjords and the Falklands etc. Less than 1% of people seek out sustainable holidays now, but this number will grow to 5% over the next 20 years. Consumers and destinations still have a long way to go to tackle sustainable development “issues”. However, those destinations and suppliers that are proactive will win. Do not wait until there is a problem to act. Partnerships between destinations and travel suppliers, both home and abroad, will be winners. In satisfying British tourists on holiday, be sure to deliver what is promised; veer sharply from crowded/rowdy resorts; reduce crime/harassment and deliver quality service. Remember that it is important to work hard on these aspects that you can influence since you cannot influence the chance of bad weather. Destinations will need to be fresh and reinvent themselves in order to compete in the British market. Being far away and “exotic”, while necessary, will not be sufficient to capture and satisfy British travellers. A key trend in the British travel market as indeed in the US, Germany and other markets the growing popularity of short breaks. Growth in the short break market will mean that short-haul destinations and interesting cities will benefit from the surge in travel for shorter breaks. Long-haul and medium-haul destinations that offer creative, hassle-free seamless packages will also stand to benefit from short breaks. Here, all-inclusives and cruises could have important advantages in this growing market as they tend to offer competitive, flexible and hassle-free itineraries, albeit in a controlled environment. British travellers also have a clear preference for staying at hotels. However, hotel stays are diminishing in favour of rented villa/flat accommodation. Hotels and resorts will need to be far more flexible, competitive and value-oriented in their offerings and increasingly cater to the individual needs of British travellers.



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Analysis of British travel patterns reveals a number of clear trends:

1. The British will travel;

2. There is a growing preference for travel abroad and to faraway destinations;

3. Short breaks (one to three days) are growing in popularity;

4. Growth in independent holidays will continue;

5. The hotel sector is under threat;

6. Search for exotic and green destinations; and

7. More activity-oriented holidays. There is no doubt that the British will continue to travel. However, beware! Remember that Britain has one of the largest airport infrastructures and easiest access to flights in the world. Tour operators are experienced packagers and sellers of destinations worldwide. Many destinations are competing for the British market. British consumers have a wide array of destinations from which to choose and are very experienced and demanding. Destinations will need to compete on value and be innovative in their product offer in order to sustain and win market share. In addition, the British travellers are increasingly keen on “going it alone” (independently) and using the Internet to make bookings. Internet strategies for suppliers will need to be well-defined, in-tune with the needs of the market and with a clear focus. The British are sophisticated and experienced travellers. The trend is for growth in travel abroad, so much so that the British tend to be apologetic about taking a holiday in Britain. The British preference for holidaying abroad has increased by leaps and bounds. In 1965 only 14.3% of British trips were abroad and 85.7% of domestic trips within the United Kingdom. In 1998, approximately half of all 4+ night holiday trips taken were taken abroad. Under the new statistical series (introduced in 1999), the share of British residents opting to travel abroad has been recalculated at an estimated 47% in 2002. Destinations will need to be fresh and reinvent themselves, as Spain has successfully done, in order to compete in the British market. Being faraway and “exotic” may not be sufficient to capture the market and satisfy British travellers. There is a growing demand for quality in all aspects of the holiday. There is also a trend away from the pure sun, sand and sea holidays toward more exotic green destinations. Culture and adventure, particularly soft but increasingly medium adventure, will rise in popularity. There is also a trend towards more activity-oriented/special-interest holidays. British travellers are not content to just be around and do nothing. More than two fifths (43%) of UK tour operators identified cruising and special-interest niche markets as the most favoured holiday types of their clients in the next five years. Another third (33%) identified short breaks as growing in favour among British travellers. More than 20% of tour operators surveyed identified beach holidays, independent travel and all-inclusives as holiday types favoured by their clients.



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The British travel market is experienced, mature and demanding. Tour operators have proven themselves to be very adaptable, providing the flexibility that their customers increasingly demand. British travellers are also experienced travellers and are very comfortable with travelling to faraway destinations. Tourism Intelligence International expects continued growth in the following preferred holiday types in the next five years: • Cruising • Independent travel • Short break • All-inclusive • Special interest/niche areas/activity holidays/safari adventure

In addition, there are a number of key emerging trends in the British travel and tourism industry to which suppliers will need to adapt. Tourism Intelligence International’s British tour operator survey confirmed a number of key trends developing in the British travel market. These are summarised in the following figure. Key Trends in the British Market, 2010 From To Rigidly Packaged Independent

Short Haul Long Haul

Long Holiday Short Holiday

Saturated Areas New, untouched areas

Sand and Sea Exotic, green

Do nothing Activity-oriented

Down-market Quality

Price-driven Value-oriented

Source: Tourism Intelligence International, 2005



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In addition to these trends, the Internet and technology on the whole are producing far-reaching impacts. An important trend is the increased demand for long-haul travel. British travellers are so experienced and comfortable with travel that they are travelling farther and farther away. The thirst for new, faraway destinations is being firmly entrenched. One must remember that Britain is an island – travel abroad for three-quarters of travellers is by air. While Germans travel to Europe with ease by car (e.g. to Austria, Italy), for the British, travel to Spain and Italy has always been made a more medium- than short-haul destination. Today, therefore, adding on a few hours and travelling to farther and more exotic destinations is becoming the norm. Another trend is for British travellers to move away from saturated areas into new, untouched areas. This trend will continue. Those destinations that can offer new and different experiences will win. There is also a significant trend toward organising travel independently as opposed to the traditional package, although the independent travel could be to same destinations, perhaps more “off the beaten track” (e.g. Andalucia, South of France). The report highlights that the British travel market is increasingly independent – with home-assembled, DIY holidays becoming the norm. The factors driving this trend are analysed such as the rise of gap year travel, branding, all-inclusive holidays, time share as well as the consequences and strategic options for travel suppliers. There is also a growing trend towards more quality up-market resorts, choosing to book these independently and directly. British travellers are increasingly demanding quality and value in every element of their holiday. Europe accounts for 80.4% of all travel flows outside of Britain. The Americas account for 8.9% of Britain’s outbound arrivals of which North America accounts for 7.0%; and South & Central America account for 0.6%. The Caribbean accounts for 1.3% of the British outbound travellers. East Asia & the Pacific account for 5.6%; South Asia accounts for 1.1%; Africa accounts for 2.1%; and the Middle East accounts for 1.9%. In 2002, France and Spain each accounted for some 28% of total trips by British residents to European destinations, followed by Ireland (7.7%), Greece (5.5%), Italy (5%), the Netherlands (3.5%), Portugal (3.5%) and Germany (3.1%). The rest of Europe attracted 15% of UK trips to Europe. North America (the USA and Canada) accounts for the largest share (42%) of British arrivals to destinations outside of Europe. North America is followed, in order of market share, by East Asia & the Pacific (28.5%); Africa (10.9%); the Middle East (9.8%); the Caribbean (6.5%); South Asia (5.5%); and Central and South America (2.9%). The top four British long-haul regions in 2002 were: 1. North America (36% market share ) 2. East Asia & Pacific (28.5%), mainly Australia, Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, and

China 3. Africa (11%), mainly South Africa, Tunisia, Kenya and Morocco



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4. The Middle East (10%), mainly the United Arab Emirates (especially Dubai) and Egypt. Although Europe is the favourite destination for the British, in recent years there has been an increasing interest in long-haul destinations. Measured by the rate of growth over the period 1988 to 2002, the top three long-haul regions were: 1. Middle East (United Arab Emirates and Egypt); 2. East Asia & Pacific (Australia and Thailand); and 3. Central & South America (Brazil and Argentina). In terms of average annual growth rates from the UK market over the period 1998-2002, only two of the top ten destinations are within Europe, namely Croatia (15.1%) and Bulgaria (11.3%). The other top ten destinations – all long-haul – were United Arab Emirates (21%), Cuba (12.7%), Egypt (11.6%), New Zealand (11.1%), Thailand (11%), Malaysia (10.5%), Morocco (9.5%) and China (9%). The United Kingdom economy is one of the strongest and most dynamic economies in the world. In the mid-1990s, The Economist reported that Britain was the “brightest spot” in Europe. London is the international finance capital of the world, with the London Stock Exchange more liquid than any other country in the world. The Gross Domestic Product (current prices) of the United Kingdom in 2000 stood at £951 billion. The growth rate that year was 3.9 per cent. However, since the economic slowdown following the 9/11 tragedy in the USA, growth slowed to 2.3% in 2001 and 1.8% in 2002. However, GDP growth picked up in 2003 with 2.2 per cent. This growth is expected to level off in 2006 and 2007. The pound sterling has been the world’s strongest currency for the last five years. The low unemployment rate, at 4.7% for June-August 2004, is second only to that of United States, while the inflation rate has stabilised at a rate of 3.1%. In 2004, the United Kingdom produced a total of 64.1 million visits to countries outside of the UK. The number of British outbound travellers is forecasted to increase by an average annual rate of 1.74% from 2002 to 2010. In 2002, there were 64.8 million outbound travellers and this is forecasted to grow to 70.7 million in 2006. In 2010, the UK will produce almost 74.4 million visitors to destinations abroad. The UAE, New Zealand, China, France and Australia stand to benefit the most from UK travel to 2010 as the forecasts showed the greatest potential average annual growth for these countries. The UAE and China for example, are relatively new holiday destinations but are making heavy inroads into the UK travel market. In 2002, more than half (52%) of all vacationers travelled with a package tour and 48% travelled independently. Tourism Intelligence International expects the growth of the independent holiday market to continue. It is even possible that the size of the independent holiday market could be underestimated as many British travellers now use the holiday package as a “launch pad” for their independent holidays. The UK is a dynamic travel market. This dynamism is reflected in the passenger flows at Britain’s main airports. In 1975, there were 42 million passengers at the main UK airports.



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By 2003, this total had risen to 200 million – almost a five-fold increase in passengers in under 30 years. Tour operators are a significant player in the UK travel industry. They are active in both long- and short-haul markets and have been a driving force in the development and sophistication of the British travel market. The ten largest operators saw their combined sales drop 5% to a total of € 43.4 billion in 2002. Within the top ten, TUI retained its substantial lead as Europe's largest travel group Europe with an estimated €12.4 billion in total tourism revenues. Thomas Cook advanced to second place ahead of Britain's My Travel, mostly due to the first-time full-year consolidation of Thomas Cook UK and a turnover fall at My Travel. Spain's Grupo Iberostar entered the top ten rankings in seventh spot, but positions were otherwise largely unchanged compared with the previous year. From TII’s Tour Operator Survey the following countries are expected to have the most rapid growth in the next 5 years. Countries to Experience the Most Rapid Growth in the Next 5 years Region Countries to Experience Most Rapid

Growth Europe

Turkey, Northern Cyprus, Bulgaria, Croatia, other Eastern Europe (incl. Slovenia, Poland), Germany

North America

USA (Florida, Massachusetts, Washington DC, Hawaii), Canada (Toronto, Montreal)

Caribbean

Cuba, Dominican Republic

South & Central America

Mexico, Brazil, Argentina

Southern Africa

South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique

Other Africa

Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Kenya, Libya

East Asia/Pacific

India, China, Japan, Bali, Borneo, Vietnam, Indonesia

South Asia Thailand, Vietnam

Middle East

Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Other UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman

Other

Kerala (India), Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius

Source: Tourism Intelligence International Survey, 2004



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There is set to be a huge growth in watching and playing sport on holiday, including less mainstream sports, such as rodeo in Las Vegas, surfing trips to Hawaii, and snowboarding championships in Colorado. The next 20 years will also see a surge in demand for adrenaline sports and desire for ‘real’ experiences – such as whale watching and swimming with dolphins. ‘Experiences’ will be increasingly packaged up and available meaning that holidaymakers will be constantly looking for the next big thing. Relaxation holidays involving yoga, spas and ayurvedic treatments will also become more mainstream. Qatar is expected to become a mainstream holiday destination in the next 20 years, featured by up to 50 holiday companies. UK tourist numbers will grow tenfold from just 150,000 in 2002 to 1.5 million in 5 years, and are expected to far exceed that figure by 2024. Families will be attracted by traditional holiday activities like sea, beach and sun, while the country positions itself as offering ‘The Real Arab Experience’. Qatar’s government plans major investment in promotion in the UK and on holiday facilities specifically for families. Only hours away, the middle eastern country could become the new Canaries. Ljubljana and other cities and resorts in Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro will appeal to a new generation of travellers who do not remember the Yugoslav conflict. Towns and cities that once few people had heard of will become mainstream. Access will be easier and cheaper with the growth in no frills flights. Holidaymakers looking for ‘the new Prague’ can combine sightseeing, excellent food and skiing based in alternative beautiful city. Slovakia’s entry into the EU, has made the country more accessible for people wanting to get a way from traffic, pollution and stress. The destination is shaping up to become the short-haul equivalent of New Zealand by developing a niche for outdoor adrenaline sports. Tourists could travel to Slovakia for activities such as bungee jumping, jet boating and tandem skydiving in the future. It will also meet a growing demand for ‘well-being’/spa breaks and nature activity holidays, featuring climbing, hiking and horse riding. Brazil’s potential as a hugely popular, mass-market holiday destination is vast but is dependent on improved infrastructure and hotel development. The country has all the ingredients for a perfect holiday – great beaches, the Amazon rainforest and incredible cities like Rio. A fledgling package holiday market is set to grow with more flights and lower prices. Where backpackers go first, more traditional holidaymakers follow. Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan are two central Asian countries expected to grow in popularity as grandchildren follow in the footsteps of their hippy grand parents and travel along the Silk Road. Already the world’s 5th most popular tourist destination according to the World Tourism Organisation, China will attract more holidaymakers as it becomes more accessible and affordable. The country is predicted to be the most visited nation in 20 years time, due to its



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culture, history and natural beauty. In summary, it can be seen that the UK market will continue to grow well into 2010 and that many countries and regions of the world will benefit. France, whilst being a traditional mainstream destination for British travellers, still has great potential for expansion to the British outbound travel market (about one quarter of British travellers made at least one trip to France). The detailed report identifies the top growth destinations for the British market - Cyprus, China, Dubai, New Zealand, Maldives. ‘In’ and growth destinations include Brazil, Bulgaria, Dominican Republic, Mozambique, Kenya, Vietnam, Abu Dhabi, Oman and the Seychelles Detailed country forecasts to 2010 for key destinations – Australia, Barbados, Cyprus, Egypt, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Turkey, the USA – are also included.

Republic of Ireland Although relatively small, the Irish outbound travel market is one of the strongest in Europe. Rising standards of living and increased purchasing power have resulted in a sharp increase in travel abroad and the growth in tourist expenditure. In 2003, visits abroad by Irish residents totalled 4.9 million - up 6.4% compared with 2002, whilst net international tourism and travel expenditure by Irish visitors abroad rose to €4,163 million (up 5.3%), capping a decade of almost continuous growth. There is every reason to believe that, despite the recent slow-down in the rate of economic growth, the Irish outbound market will generate some 6-7 million trips abroad by 2010, of which over 2 million will be holiday visits abroad. How the British Will Travel 2010 also provides a guide to sources, the European Directives affecting time-share and package tours, and a list of the major national and regional newspapers. Aimed at marketers and those keen on attracting and keeping the British market, this report from Tourism Intelligence International is probably the most comprehensive and in-depth research available on the British Travel Market. The report identifies and ranks regions in Britain with the greatest travel potential; analyses key economic, social and demographic influences; assesses travel behaviour, motivation, spending and holiday preferences, favourite holiday destinations. In summary, Britain is one of the most robust, dynamic and terror-resistant travel markets in the world. The British travelling population is expected to near the 75 million mark by 2010, compared with 64.1 million in 2004 as British travellers have access to more flights and destinations than any other country. Britain is already the third most important outbound market in the world, after the USA and Germany, and up from fourth position five years ago. It is therefore critical that tourism destinations and travel suppliers give priority to this important source market. At the same time, the British travel market is highly complex and,



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to remain competitive, travel suppliers will need to work harder to exceed the expectations of their British customers. The experienced, ageing, demanding and independent British traveller, together with a highly concentrated travel market, and the growing impact of the Internet, are making it imperative that travel suppliers come to grips with how the British travel. The British travel market is also increasingly independent – with home-assembled, DIY holidays becoming the norm. The factors driving this trend are analysed such as the rise of gap year travel, branding, all-inclusive holidays, timeshare as well as the consequences and strategic options for travel suppliers. Travel suppliers will need to work harder and smarter to continue to attract this lucrative but increasingly demanding and competitive travel market.

© Tourism Intelligence International

How the British Will Travel 2010 1

The British Travel Market

Britain is a very important travel market. It is the third most important outbound market in the world, after the USA, and Germany, jumping from fourth position in 2000. The British travel market produced some 64.1 million visits abroad in 2004 and generated £30.3 billion in expenditure. Growth of the British travel market has consistently outpaced that of the world, both in terms of arrivals and expenditure through the 1990s. Britain has the second largest and fastest growing cruise market after the USA. Britain has also the second largest time-share market, after the USA.

Size and importance of the British travel market

Taking holidays abroad is a firmly established priority for the British. Having a good holiday is the most important spending priority for the UK consumer after home ownership, and is considered an essential, rather than a luxury commodity. In fact, the British people are twelve times more likely to get excited about going on holiday than getting a new job, according to a survey by Expedia.com.

Holiday – the most important spending priority

The British preference for holidaying abroad has increased by leaps and bounds. In 1998, approximately half of all 4+ nights holiday trips taken were taken abroad. Under the new statistical series (introduced in 1999), the share of British residents opting to travel abroad has been recalculated and amounted to an estimated 47% in 2003.

In the wake of both the first Gulf war and the terrorist attacks of 11th September 2001, as well as the recent War on Terrorism in Iraq, the most resilient market has been the British market, followed by Germany, the US and Japan (see Impact of Terrorism on World Tourism – Likely Scenarios and Future Strategies published by Tourism Intelligence International, November 2001). The British can be considered to be the hardiest of all travellers. Germans too are determined, while the Americans and Japanese tend to be more cautious. It took the British only

Britain – the most resilient travel market

1 1

© Tourism Intelligence International 1: The British Travel Market


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eight months after the first Gulf War before arrivals to the Middle East reached pre-war levels. It took the Germans a full year to recover travel levels to the Middle East and it took the Americans and Japanese a full 19 months. The clear message is to focus marketing efforts on the hardy British travellers, the market that recovers the quickest after disruptive events such as 9/11, the second Gulf War and Tsunami. Britain is a very lucrative source market for many overseas destinations and even for destinations within the UK. Consider that: • The United Kingdom has a population of

59.3 million, the third largest population in Europe;

• The British are mature, demanding and

experienced travellers with an enormous appetite for travel;

• The British market is very experienced in

foreign travel and increasingly inclined to seek out new, unexplored destinations;

• The British pound is one of the strongest

currencies in the world; • The British economy continues to be one of

the brightest spots in Europe; • The British have a large number of paid

holidays (four to six weeks per year); and • It is socially acceptable for the British to

take holidays.

Britain — a lucrative market

In this chapter, we examine the size and importance of the British travel market. We also examine the most lucrative travel markets among the nine regions of England, plus Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

1: The British Travel Market © Tourism Intelligence International


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1.1 Global Significance

The British travel market is significant in global terms. The British outbound market accounted for more than 9% of the world tourist arrivals and travel expenditure in 2003. Growth of British outbound travel has consistently outpaced the world market since 1978. And since 1980 the growth in British expenditure abroad has outpaced that of the world (see Figures 1.1 and 1.2).

The British outbound market accounts for 9% of world travel

Figure 1.1 Growth of UK and World Tourists, 1970-2004

Source: World Tourism Organisation and National Statistics Online, 2005



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Figure 1.2 Growth of UK and World Expenditure on Tourism, 1980-2004

Source: World Tourism Organisation and National Statistics Online, 2005 1.2 Thirst for Faraway Destinations

The British market may be the third largest in global terms, but the British are world champions in long-haul travel, visiting many more faraway destinations than Germans, Japanese or Americans.

World champions in long-haul travel

The British have displayed a thirst for faraway destinations. The British who travel abroad are almost twice as likely to travel outside of Europe compared with German travellers. Approximately 12.6 million (19.6%) Britons travelled outside of Europe in 2002. By contrast, only 6.9 million Germans travelled outside Europe in the same year (see Table 1.3).

The British are highly likely to travel outside of Europe

In addition, the British are twice as likely to visit faraway destinations such as the Middle East and South Asia as the Germans, Americans or Japanese. More Britons (1,248,984 in 2002) travelled to the Middle East than their German (1,116,710), Japanese (134,332) and American (586,149) counterparts. Likewise, more than three times the number of Britons (707,295) go to South Asia as their German counterparts (211,432). In 2002, 3.8 million British travellers visited the USA, compared with 3.6 million Japanese and only 1.2 million Germans.



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Compared with German travellers, far fewer British travellers visit Europe. In 2002, some 52 million British travellers (80% of the total) visited Europe compared with 75 million German travellers (90.5% of the total).

The British thirst for faraway destinations is linked to historical circumstances where the English language is spoken in its former far-flung Empire; relatives and friends still reside in many of these destinations and the sheer experience and interest in visiting faraway destinations is appealing to the British.

Distant destinations are appealing to the British

Table 1.3 Number and Share of the World’s Top Four Markets in 2002

UK GERMANY USA JAPAN Region Arrivals % Arrivals % Arrivals % Arrivals %

Africa Americas EAP Europe Middle East South Asia Total

1,379,095 5,762,985 3,616,790

52,129,613 1,248,984

707,295

64,844,762

2.1 8.9 5.6

80.4 1.9 1.1

100

1,385,564 2,497,405 1,733,266

75,086,163 1,116,710

211,432

82,030,540

1.7 3.0 2.1

91.5 1.4 0.3

100

543,170 45,031,233 6,463,300

15,842,461586,149 452,796

68,919,109

0.8 65.3 9.4

23.0 0.8 0.7

100

94,763 4,192,362

13,453,230 4,476,417

134,332 150,824

22,501,928

0.4 18.6 59.8 19.9 0.6 0.7

100

Source: World Tourism Organization, 2003 1.3 Size and Importance

The United Kingdom has a population of 59.3 million, the third largest population in Western Europe, after Germany and France. Italy and Spain are other large states within Europe (see Table 1.4). At January 1, 2004 Britain accounted for 16.0% of the total population of the then EU-15 member countries (see Figure 1.5).

The UK has the third largest population in Europe



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Table 1.4 Population and Travel Intensities of Selected European Countries and the USA, 2004

Country Population (thousands)

Travel Intensity*

Travelling Population (thousands)

Germany (e) 82,536.7 76% 62,727.89 USA (e) 293,027.6 21% 61,535.79 Italy (e) 57,321.0 69% 39,551.49 France (p) 59,630.1 61% 36,374.36 UK (e) 59,328.9 59% 35,004.05 Spain (p) 41,550.6 28% 11,634.17 Netherlands 16,192.6 61% 9,877.49 Greece (e) 11,018.4 66% 7,272.14 Portugal 10,407.5 61% 6,348.58 Sweden 8,940.8 66% 5,900.93 Switzerland (e) 7,450.9 71% 5,290.14 Belgium 10,355.8 47% 4,867.23 Austria 8,067.3 53% 4,275.67 Denmark 5,383.5 75% 4,037.63 Finland 5,206.3 48% 2,499.02 Ireland 3,963.6 28% 1,109.81 Luxemburg 448.3 71% 318.29

Source: Eurostat Yearbook, 2004 With a population less than one quarter of the size of the United States, the United Kingdom produces the fourth largest number of travellers in the world. Americans have a very low travel intensity (21%) compared to the British (59%).

The UK produces the fourth largest number of travellers in the world



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Figure 1.5 European Populations Compared, 2004

A very important determinant of travel is paid holidays. One needs only to consider what the size of the US travel market would be if Americans, like Germans, had six weeks of paid holidays at their disposal. British residents have 25 days (five weeks) of paid holidays per year.

British residents have four to six weeks of paid holidays per year.

Typically, most people in full-time employment in the UK receive between four and six weeks holiday a year, depending on length of service. The British have an additional nine days of public holidays. These public (bank) holidays serve to extend the weekend and have become popular for short breaks (see Table 1.6). Bank holidays are usually arranged to fall on a Monday. The number of British public holidays is two days less than that of many other European countries.

Source: European Commission, 2005



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Table 1.6 A Comparison of Paid Holidays by Country, 2002 Country Annual

Vacation (days)

Public Holidays

(work days) Germany Austria Netherlands Denmark Finland France Sweden United Kingdom Switzerland Spain Greece Portugal Belgium Ireland Italy Japan United States

30.0 26.5 25.3 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.5 24.4 23.0 22.0 22.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 18.0 12.0

12.0 10.5 11.0 9.0

10.0 11.0 11.0 9.0 9.0

14.0 9.0

14.0 11.0 9.0

11.0 13.0 11.0

Source: Zahlen 2004: Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft, Koln Americans and the Japanese pale in comparison to the British with 12 and 18 days of paid holidays respectively. Americans have less than half the number of paid holidays that the British enjoy. This partially explains why the British take so many trips abroad and also stay away for longer periods, way in excess of their American and Japanese counterparts.

The British have more paid leave than Americans and the Japanese

Even more important than the actual number of paid holidays, however, is the social acceptability of taking holidays. In Britain, as in Germany, taking one’s full holiday is socially acceptable. Unlike the Japanese and Americans, who have two to four weeks of paid holiday but do not use all of it, the British generally use all of their holiday entitlement.

It is socially acceptable for the British to take holidays

Among Europeans, the British have a relatively high propensity to travel. More British residents as a percentage of the total population have travelled compared, for example, with Austria, Finland and the United States. Almost three-fifths (59%) of the British population over 12 years of age has taken, within one year, at least one

The British have a relatively high propensity to travel



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holiday lasting at least five days (four nights). For France, the propensity to take holidays is only marginally higher at 61%; for Italy, 69%; Switzerland, 71%. Germany tops the list at 76%. (See Figure 1.7). Figure 1.7 Travel Intensity of Selected European Countries and the USA, 2004

Source: TII Estimates, 2005 Britain’s potential travelling population is conservatively estimated at 35 million, larger than the travelling populations of Sweden, Switzerland, Belgium and Austria put together.

The British travelling population is 35 million

British travel propensity has demonstrated an upward trend since 1981. The travel propensity of the British increased from 59% in 1971 to 62% in 1978 (See Figure 1.8). In 1998, 59% of British residents took at least one holiday abroad lasting five days.



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Figure 1.8 Development of British Holiday Propensity, 1971 - 2010

Source: 1971 – 1999 British Tourism Authority, 2000 – 2004 TII Estimates, 2005 – 2010 TII Forecasts Tourism Intelligence International predicts very little increase in British holiday propensity and estimates that, by 2006, the British will have a travel propensity of 59%. While the number of travellers will increase, the proportion of those travelling abroad is likely to remain the same.

British travel propensity will be 59% in 2005

The combination of four to six weeks of paid holiday; one of the highest incomes in the world; a strong currency, falling unemployment, and the sheer appetite for travel, has produced the world’s fifth largest travel market.

The British market is important for tourism destinations and travel suppliers because of: • The sheer size and volume of travel flows; • The spending capacity of the British; • The long length of stay generated; • The enormous appetite for travel; and • The independent nature of travel.



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It is important, however, not to view the British travel market as a single homogenous entity. There are many differences among the regions that make up Britain. It is therefore important to examine the regions that make up Britain and their respective incomes and travel intensities. The most lucrative regions for travel will be identified.

There are important differences among the regions of Britain.

1.4 Main Regions and their Travel Intensities

The United Kingdom constitutes the greater part of the British Isles. The largest of the islands is Great Britain, which comprises England, Scotland and Wales. The next largest comprises Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The British Isles (excluding the Isle of Man, located in the Irish Sea between England and Ireland, and the Channel Islands between Great Britain and France), together with Northern Ireland, make up the United Kingdom. In this report, we focus on mainly on Great Britain — England, Scotland and Wales; however, some data refers to the United Kingdom, including Northern Ireland. England is further divided into nine regions — South East, London, North West (including Merseyside), East, West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside, South West, East Midlands and North East.



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Figure 1.9 Map of UK & Ireland

Source: www.good-acconmmodation-guide.co.uk, 2005. In contrast to Wales and Scotland, England has no separate elected national body or department exclusively responsible for its central administration. Instead, there are a number of government departments, whose responsibilities in some cases also cover some aspects of affairs in Wales and Scotland.

In England, the greatest concentrations of population are in London and the South East, the North West and Merseyside, and the East. In Scotland, the population is over 5 million, in Wales 2.9 million and in Northern Ireland 1.7 million. Average income in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland tend to be much lower than the national average.

Greatest population concentration is in London and South East

England’s population is expected to rise from 49.4 million in 2001 to 62 million by 2010. The nine regions of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, together with their capitals, respective population sizes and geographic areas, are provided in Table 1.10. A review of each of the main English regions, as well as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, follows.



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The South East, centred around London, is the wealthiest region, and has by far the best communications structure for international travel, with Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted and Luton airports all well placed to service the area. More than 15 million people, just over a quarter of the British population, live in the South East and London regions, together generating one-third (33%) of national GDP.

South East is the wealthiest region

Table 1.10 Main Regions at a Glance (2003)

Region Population (‘000)

Area (sq. km.)

South East London North West East Anglia West Midlands Yorkshire & Humberside South West East Midlands North East Total England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland Total UK

18,712 7,388 6,315 2,219 5,320

5,009 4,999 4,252 2,539

49,856 5,057 2,938 1,703

59,554

19,098 1,578

14,165 19,120 13,004

15,400 23,825 15,627 8,594

130,411 78, 772 20,761 14,120

244,064

Source: Annual Abstract of Statistics 2005, Office for National Statistics, 2005 1.5 Main Regions of England

South East

South East England has the largest population and the third largest land area after South West and East. In 2003, the South East's population was 18.7 million people. Within the South East, the population was most concentrated in Portsmouth area (4,671 people per sq. km.). Since 1971, the population in the South East has been steadily increasing (including an increase of 10.5% between 1982 and 2002).

South East has the largest population



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This region also has the highest economic activity rate for people of working age. The employment rate for people of working age in 2003, at 79.3%, was the highest in the UK. In 2002, the proportion of the working age population who were self-employed was among the highest in the UK, at 10.5%. The region also had the highest proportion of owner-occupied dwellings, at 75 %, in 2005.

Three quarters (75%) of dwellings in the South East were owner occupied in 2003, the highest proportion in the United Kingdom. Nearly a third of people in the South East were in the top fifth of the country’s income distribution in 1996–97, a higher proportion than any other region.

London

In 2003, London's population was approximately 7.4 million, which equated to a population density of 4,679 people per sq. km., appreciably higher than in any other region; there were 8,980 people per sq. km. in Inner London. The resident population grew by 8.7% between 1982 and 2003. London had the largest proportion of its population aged between 25 and 44 in 2003 (34.5%) compared with 29% for the UK as a whole in that same year.

London has the highest population density

The proportion of London's population who are of retirement age (12%) is the lowest of all the regions. The UK average was 20% in 2003.

In 2002, the highest average gross weekly earnings (by full-time employees on adult rates) in the UK were in London (£624.10). Average weekly earnings for males working in the financial and business services sector in April 2002 were almost 45% higher than the UK rate. In 1999, gross disposable household income for London was £12,207 per head, also the highest in the country.

About one person in four living in London belongs to an ethnic minority group compared with one person in 16 for Great Britain.



15

London is itself also a major tourist attraction and ranks among the top 10 cities in the world in terms of tourist arrivals.

London is the largest city in the UK; other important cities and their respective regions are indicated in Table 1.11. Birmingham (West Midlands), Leeds (Yorkshire and Humberside), Glasgow (Scotland) and Sheffield (Yorkshire and Humberside) are the other big cities in the UK, each with more than half a million inhabitants.

Table 1.11 Britain’s Largest Cities, 2003

Source: Annual Abstract of Statistics 2005, Office for National Statistics, 2005

City Region Population (’000)

Greater London Inner London Outer London

Metropolitan Areas West Midlands - Birmingham Greater Manchester - Manchester West Yorkshire - Leeds Merseyside - Liverpool South Yorkshire - Sheffield Tyne and Wear - Newcastle upon Tyne

Other Large Cities Bristol Leicester Nottingham Plymouth

Scotland City of Glasgow City of Edinburgh

Wales Cardiff

Northern Ireland Belfast

London London West Midlands North West Yorkshire & Humberside North West Yorkshire & Humberside North East South West East Midlands East Midlands South West Scotland Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

2,905 4,483

2,578

992 2,531

432

2,096 715

1,364 442

1,273 513

1,083 267

382 284 270 239

577 448

309

274



16

North West and Merseyside

North West and Merseyside is the third most populated area in England, with 6.85 million inhabitants. In 2003, the North West had the highest percentage of households which consist of a lone parent with dependent children. The North West employment rate (for people of working age) was 73.3% in spring 2003, among the lowest proportions in the UK.

Economic activity rate is 73%

In April 2002, average gross weekly earnings for full-time employees on adult rates in the North West were £426.80. In the North West, manufacturing industry accounted for 23% of GVA (Gross Value Added) in 2000, compared with 19% for the UK as a whole.

East

In 2003, the East of England had a population of 5.5 million people. The population increased by 11% between 1982 and 2003, based on the mid-year population estimates. The largest percentage population change was in Cambridgeshire where there was an increase of 21.5%. In the East of England in 2002, 81% of 16-year-olds were in full-time education or on a Government Supported Training scheme, one of the highest proportions in the country.

East has one of the highest proportions of youths in full-time education

The employment rate for people of working age in 2003 was 78%, amongst the highest rates in the UK. In 2002, average gross weekly earnings for full-time employees on adult rates in the East of England were £459.60 per person.

West Midlands

In 2003, West Midlands had a population of 5 million people. Birmingham was the area with the highest population density (3,697 people per sq. km.).

West Midlands has the second highest ethnic minority

Over one in 10 people in the West Midlands are from an ethnic minority group, the second highest proportion in Great Britain.

The population of the West Midlands increased by 2.5% between mid-year 1982 and 2003. In



17

2002, the region had one of the highest Total Fertility Rates, at 1.75, second only to the Northern Ireland figure of 1.80. The proportion of people of working age qualified to GCE A level/equivalent or higher in the West Midlands was around 45% in spring 2003.

The employment rate for people of working age in spring 2003, at 74% was among the lowest in the UK. Around a fifth of employee jobs in the West Midlands in 2001 were in the manufacturing sector.

In April 2002, average gross weekly earnings for full-time employees on adult rates in the West Midlands were £427.30.

The West Midlands received the highest amount of EU funding coming to the UK in 2003 (18% of the overall total).

Yorkshire and Humberside

In 2003, Yorkshire and Humberside had a population of 5 million people. The population increased by 1.5% between 1982 and 2003. The largest percentage change in population was in the East Riding of Yorkshire where there was an increase of 16.6%.

A quarter of the people from Yorkshire and the Humber were in the bottom fifth of income distribution

In April 2002, average gross weekly earnings for full-time employees on adult rates in Yorkshire and Humberside were £409.90. Some 16% of all dwellings in Yorkshire and Humberside were rented from local authorities in 2003 compared with an average of 11% in England as a whole.

South West

In 2003, the South West had a population of 5.0 million. Within the South West, population density was highest in the Bournemouth area. The proportion of the population over retirement age was highest in the South West in 2003. More than a quarter of the population of Torbay and Dorset were over retirement age.

South West has the oldest population structure

Population growth in the United Kingdom between 1982 and 2003 was highest in the South



18

West (a 12.7% increase). Only the cities of Bristol and Plymouth showed declines of 4.8% and 6.2% respectively. At nearly one in three in spring 2002, the proportion of households consisting of a married couple with no children was highest in the South West.

The employment rate for people of working age in spring 2003, at 78.6%, was among the highest in the UK.

East Midlands

In 2003, the East Midlands had a population of 4.3 million. The population of the East Midlands increased by 9.5% in the 21 years between 1982 and 2003. The largest percentage increase was in Lincolnshire, at 19.2%.

In spring 2003, the East Midlands employment rate (for people of working age), at 76.1%, was among the highest of the countries and regions of the UK.

Around a fifth of employee jobs in the East Midlands in 2001 were in the manufacturing sector. In April 2002, average gross weekly earnings for full-time employees on adult rates in the East Midlands were £413.00. In the East Midlands, manufacturing accounted for 26% of GVA in 2000, compared with 19% for the UK as a whole.

North East

In 2003, the North East had a population of 2.5 million people. The population decreased by 4.2% between 1982 and 2003. The largest percentage movement was in Middlesbrough with a 10.6% decrease in population.

North East has the lowest priced dwellings

The North East had the lowest employment rate (for people of working age) in the UK, at 68.2% in spring 2003. In December 2001, the North East had a higher proportion of employee jobs in the construction, public administration and defence sectors than elsewhere in the UK.



19

In April 2002, average gross weekly earnings for full-time employees on adult rates in the North East were £399.30. In the North East, manufacturing industry accounted for 24% of gross value added (GVA) in 2000, compared with 19% for the UK. In 1999, gross disposable household income for the North East was £9,018 per head.

Wales

In 2003, Wales had a population of just over 2.9 million. Within Wales, the population density was most concentrated in Cardiff and least concentrated in Powys. Overall, Wales has one of the UK’s lowest population densities.

Wales has one of the lowest population densities

The population of Wales increased by 4.1% between 1982 and 2003 (based on the mid-year population estimates). The largest increase was in Ceredigion where the population increased by more than a quarter during the twenty years. The employment rate for people of working age in spring 2003, at 73.0%, was among the lowest in the UK. However, the employment rate increased in Wales by more than 4 percentage points between 1999 and 2003.

The highest proportion of males with second jobs in spring 2003 was in Wales (4.3% of those in employment). In April 2002, average gross weekly earnings for full-time employees on adult rates in Wales were £399.70. Almost a third of households in Wales in 2001/02 had lived at their current address for 20 years or more. Over the period 1999 to 2002, Wales has the lowest proportion of households in the UK with a weekly income of £750 or over.

Scotland

In 2003, Scotland had a population of 5.1 million. Within Scotland, population density was highest in Glasgow (3,290 people per sq. km.) and lowest in the Highland council area (8 people per sq. km.), the lowest for any local authority in the UK. Edinburgh had one of the lowest proportions of young people (aged under 16) in the UK, 16.1% of its population in 2003. This compared with a UK average of 19.9%. Scotland’s population

Two fifths of Scottish households live in purpose-built flats



20

decreased by 2.1% between 1982 and 2003. The largest percentage change in population was in Aberdeenshire, where there was an increase of 18.0%. The employment rate for people of working age in spring 2003 in Scotland was 74.6%, very similar to the UK average. However, the employment rate for males rose by over 3 percentage points between 1999 and 2003. In April 2002, average gross weekly earnings for full-time employees on adult rates in Scotland were £427.00.

Northern Ireland

In 2003, Northern Ireland had a population of 1.7 million. Within Northern Ireland, population density was highest in Belfast (2,501 people per sq. km.) and lowest in Moyle (33 people per sq. km.). Derry, in the Western District Council area, had the highest percentage of its population aged under 16 in 2002 (26.3% compared with the UK average of 19.9%). The population of Northern Ireland increased by 9.8% between 1982 and 2003. The largest percentage change in population was in Banbridge in the Southern district where there was an increase of 40%. Northern Ireland had the highest birth rates for women aged 30 to 34 and 25 to 29 in 2001. The employment rate for people of working age in spring 2003, at 69.7%, was among the lowest in the UK.

Employment rate for people of working age among the lowest in the UK.

In April 2002, average gross weekly earnings for full-time employees on adult rates in Northern Ireland were £390.10.

1.6 Income Levels and Economic Growth Rates by Region

Income level is a very important determinant of travel. The more income people have at their disposal, the more they are inclined to travel. The large variations in the populations of the UK regions are reflected in the size of the regional GDP and incomes.

Income is an important determinant of travel



21

From Table 1.12, it can be seen that the top five regions in terms of Gross Value Added at current basic prices are London, South East, North West, East and Scotland. In 2001, the GVA for London and South East were almost the same at £140 billion and £139 billion, respectively. North West had the third greatest GVA (£87.6 billion) followed by East (£85.8 billion) and Scotland (£69.2 billion). After Northern Ireland, the North East contributed the smallest to the UK GVA. London and the South East each produce a GVA that is five times greater than in the North East.

Table 1.12 Gross Value Added by Region, 2001 Region

GVA at current basic

prices (£ million)

Change 2001/00

%

Share of UK %

London South East North West East Scotland West Midlands South West Yorkshire & Humberside East Midlands Wales North East Northern Ireland

140,354 138,877 87,584 85,775 69,179 68,839 63,554 61,929 55,394 33,086 27,729 19,108

5.4 5.2 4.2 5.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8

16.5 16.3 10.3 10.1 8.1 8.1 7.5 7.3 6.5 3.9 3.3 2.2

United Kingdom 851,408 4.3 100.0 Source: Regional Trends 38 – 2004 Edition, Office for National Statistics, 2004 It is also interesting to note that the top two income-producing regions in the UK – London and the South East – also recorded the highest growth rates of income between 2001 and 2002, 5.4% and 5.2%, respectively.

London is one of the most expensive cities in the world in which to live. This partly explains why Londoners receive the highest incomes in the UK. Since rents and living expenses are so high in London, a substantial number of persons who

London is one of the most expensive cities in which to live



22

work in the city live in adjacent regions and commute to and from work daily. A more important measure of the economic activity of a region is the Gross Value Added per capita. This measure shows the historical impact of competitiveness on a region. It is obtained by dividing the GVA of the region by the resident population. This has the effect of increasing the GVA per capita of urban areas and regions into which workers commute while that of the surrounding areas in which they live will be understated.

Table 1.13 Gross Value Added per Capita by Region, 2001 Region GVA per capita

(£) % Change

2001/00 London South East East Scotland East Midlands West Midlands North West South West Yorkshire & Humberside Wales Northern Ireland North East

19,206 17,313 15,881 13,660 13,243 13,031 12,942 12,873 12,459 11,379 11,311 11,009

2.5 4.6 4.5 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.9

Source: Regional Trends 38 – 2004 Edition, Office for National Statistics, 2004 The Gross Value Added (GVA) per capita is also highest in London and the South East. Although the GVA per capita was the highest for London in 2001, the South East region recorded the highest rate of between 2000 and 2001. In fact, when one compares the GVA at basic prices (as shown in Table 1.12) with the GVA per capita (in Table 1.13), the disparity is wider when the GVA per head figure is used. This shows that London experiences net in-commuting, thus increasing the GVA per capita of resident population in London and reducing the figures for the South East and East of England regions from which these London workers out-commute. The GVA per capita figures presented in Table 1.13 are shown on a residence basis.

London recorded the highest rate of growth of GDP



23

If a workplace based estimate of GVA per capita was used, the estimate for London would have been even higher while the GVA per capita estimate for the South East and East of England would have fallen further.

Also, the South East and East regions receive almost the same level of GVA per capita as opposed to the huge difference when the regions were compared using GVA at basic prices. The disparity between the higher earning and the lower earning regions still exists but is not as great a margin as under the GVA at basic prices. The difference in economic prosperity of the regions of Britain is also clearly evident when one looks at the average weekly earnings of the British (See Table 1.14).

A great disparity exists between higher earning and lower earning regions

Londoners, as expected, earn the highest income in Britain. Persons working in London earn the highest weekly wage, £624 (US$942), which is more than £100 higher than the weekly wage earned in the South East, the region with the second highest weekly wage. The East, West Midlands and North West complete the top five regions with the highest average weekly earnings.

Table 1.14 Average Weekly Earnings by Region, 2002 Region £ per Week US$ equivalent London South East East West Midlands North West South West East Midlands Yorks & Humberside North East England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

624.1 496.7 459.6 427.3 426.8 421.7 413.0 409.9 399.3 471.7 427.0 399.7 390.1

942.39 750.02 694.00 645.22 644.47 636.77 623.63 618.95 602.94 712.27 644.77 603.55 589.05

United Kingdom 462.6 698.53 Note: conversion rate used: 2002 average US$1.51 = £1 Source: Regional Trends 38 – 2004 Edition, Office for National Statistics, 2004



24

1.7 Unemployment Levels by Region

Unemployment levels are also an important determinant of travel. Tourism Intelligence International research shows that there is a direct relationship between the levels of unemployment and the number of trips taken by British citizens. The higher the unemployment level, the lower the number of trips taken.

The regions with the lowest unemployment levels are the South East, South West, East and East Midlands. London has one of the highest unemployment levels (See Table 1.15).

Table 1.15 Unemployment Rates by Region, 2003 (Spring quarter) Region Unemployment

Rate (%)

South East South West East East Midlands North West Yorkshire & Humberside West Midlands London North East England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland United Kingdom

3.9 3.9 4.2 4.3 5.1 5.5 5.9 7.1 6.6

5.1 5.7 4.6 5.4

5.1

Source: Regional Trends 38 – 2004 Edition, Office for National Statistics, 2004 In 2003 (Spring quarter), London registered the highest rate of unemployment at 7.1%, followed by North East (6.6%), West Midlands (5.9%) and Scotland (5.7%).



25

Table 1.16 Adults Taking a Holiday by Region of Domicile, 2004

Region Any Holiday

(%) Holiday in

Britain (%) Holiday Abroad

(%) South East 63 34 43 North West 59 26 43 London 56 20 41 North East 54 26 40 East Midlands 64 36 39 Yorkshire and Humberside 64 37 38 West Midlands 56 29 36 South West 61 37 32 East 50 33 29 Britain 59 31 38 Scotland 59 32 35 Wales 55 36 34

Note: Holiday is defined as four or more nights away. Source: TII Estimates 2005 (based on Regional Trends, Office of National Statistics) In terms of travelling abroad, South East and North West residents took the most holidays (43%) followed by residents of London (41%) and the North East (40%) (See Table 1.16). In terms of domestic travel, the Yorkshire and Humberside residents (37%), along with the South West residents (37%), had the highest proportion of adults going on holiday in Britain. London residents, however, were least likely to holiday at home, with only 20% taking a holiday in Britain.

South East and North West residents take the most holidays

1.8 Most Lucrative Regions

The most lucrative regions can be characterised as those having: • The highest GVA per capita; • The highest weekly earnings; • Highest travel intensities; • Generating the largest number of travellers;

and • Recording the lowest unemployment

levels.

Based on these criteria, Tourism Intelligence International estimates that the top five regions in terms of their travel market potential are (see Table 1.17):

Top five lucrative regions



26

1. South East 2. London 3. Northwest & Merseyside 4. South West 5. East Midlands

Table 1.17 Overall Ranking of Regions Region Overall Rank (2005) Overall Rank (2000) South East 1 1 London 2 2 Northwest & Merseyside 3 4 South West 4 6 East Midlands 5 7 Yorkshire & Humberside 6 8 East 7 3 Scotland 8 8 West Midlands 9 5 Wales 10 11 Northern Ireland 11 Not ranked North East 12 10 Source: Tourism Intelligence International, 2000 and 2005 The South East region has the greatest travel potential in Britain. The South East recorded the second highest level of GVA per capita – £17,313; the second highest rate of economic growth (7.9%); the joint lowest level of unemployment (3.9%); ranks third in terms of travel propensity (63%) and generates the largest number of travellers (5.04 million).

South East has the greatest travel potential

London is the second most lucrative region. It has the highest level of GVA per capita – £19,206; produced the highest rate of economic growth (5.4%); has the seventh highest propensity to travel (56%) but recorded the highest level of unemployment (7.1%); and generates the second largest number of travellers (4 million).

The North West and Merseyside region has the third largest travel potential in Britain. It has the seventh highest level of per capita income – £12,942; produced the fourth highest rate of economic growth (4.2%); ranks third in terms of propensity to travel (59%); recorded the fifth lowest level of unemployment (5.1%); and generates the third largest number of travellers



27

(3.9 million). The Southwest of England has the fourth largest travel potential in Britain. It has the third highest GVA per capita – £15,881; produced the fourth highest rate of economic growth (5.0%); recorded the third lowest level of unemployment (4.2%) and generates the fifth largest number of travellers (3.0 million).

The East Midlands region has the fifth largest travel potential in Britain. It has the fifth highest per capita income – £13,243; produced the sixth highest economic rate of growth (3.5%); recorded the fourth lowest rate of unemployment (4.3%) and generates the ninth highest number of travellers (2.67 million).

East Midlands has the fifth highest travel potential

1.9 Stayover and Cruise Arrivals by Region

In 2002, the South East region produced 22% of all travel abroad by residents of Great Britain (excluding Northern Ireland), followed by London (13%), North West (12%), West Midlands (9%), Yorkshire and Humberside (9%) and Scotland (8%) (See Table 1.18). In 2002, the London area generated approximately one-sixth (16.4%) of all holiday visits abroad by GB residents, compared with 71.6% by residents of the rest of England, 7.6% by residents of Scotland and 4.4% by residents of Wales.

South East produces the highest percentage of travellers abroad



28

Table 1.18 Breakdown of GB Travellers Abroad by Region of Residence, 2002 Region % of GB

Travellers South East London North West West Midlands Yorkshire & Humberside South West East Midlands North East East Scotland Wales United Kingdom

22 13 12 9 9 7 7 5 3 8 4

100 Note: figures may not add due to rounding Source: Travel Trends 2003, Office for National Statistics, 2004 Figure 1.19 Breakdown of Visits Abroad by UK Residents by Region of Residence, 2002

Source: Travel Trends 2003, Office for National Statistics, 2004



29

Figure 1.20 Cruise Passengers by Region of Residence, 2003 and 2002

Note: figures may not add due to rounding Source: Passenger Shipping Association – IRN CruiseStats, 2003 1.10 Implications for Your Business

In this chapter, we have seen that Britain is a significant travel market – it is the third largest market in the world and has been growing faster than the rest of the world in terms of travellers and expenditure.

Britain is the third largest travel market

A high propensity to travel, four to six weeks of paid holiday and the high social acceptance of holiday-taking, together with strong economic fundamentals, will continue to drive British travel demand. Taking holidays abroad is a firmly established priority for most British consumers. Holidays are the second most important factor in people’s lifestyles after home ownership, and are considered an essential rather than a luxury commodity.

High travel propensity

In Britain, like Germany, taking one’s full holiday is socially acceptable. Unlike the Japanese and Americans, who have two to four weeks of paid holiday but do not use all of it, the British generally use all of their holiday entitlement.

Britons take their four to six weeks paid holiday



30

For all of these reasons, the British market will continue to grow. Continued investment in this market is very likely to pay off.

It is important, however, to target marketing expenditure in the regions that are most likely to produce business. Britain’s regions are very diverse, having different levels of income, rates of growth, unemployment and propensities for travel. The regions with the greatest travel market potential (in order of importance) are:

1. South East 2. London 3. North West & Merseyside 4. South West 5. East Midlands

The five regions with the greatest travel market potential

The South East and London are two critically important regions for international travel. The UK population is concentrated in the South East, centred around London. This is also the wealthiest region, and has by far the best communications structure for international travel, with Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted and Luton airports all well placed to service the area. The demand for foreign travel is also concentrated in these regions.

When targeting London it is important to pay particular attention to the ethnic market as one quarter of all Londoners belong to an ethnic minority group.

Pay attention to the ethnic markets

© Tourism Intelligence International

How the British Will Travel 2010 31

The British Traveller

The British traveller is experienced, relatively wealthy and increasingly demanding. From the Grand Tour in the 17th Century to Butlins and Pontins in the 1930s and the craze for cruises today, the culture of travelling and holiday-taking is well developed in Britain. The British are able to travel to any destination in the world with comparative ease, having more access to the widest choice of direct international air connections than any other nationality.

Experienced, relatively wealthy and demanding

The British market is one of the leading travel markets in the world, ahead of the USA, Japan and many European countries, in terms of the maturity and sophistication of its travellers. British travellers can be considered historically to be the most experienced travellers in the world. The wide range of English-speaking destinations available has helped to fuel this growth.

British travellers are the most experienced in the world They are mature and sophisticated

British travellers are no longer content to lie in the sun and do nothing. There is a surge of independent and individual travellers who are demanding more and more things to do and to be active on holiday. The increased holiday experience of the British traveler, as well as social and demographic trends, is driving these changes.

Demanding more to do on holiday

The British place a great deal of importance on having a good main holiday. While cost is often a constraint, most British travellers adjust – most adopt, in the end, a “to hell with it!” attitude, claiming they can always find the money somewhere.

A good main holiday is important

In this chapter, we review the main social and demographic trends that affect the development of the travel market; we identify the British tourists and the essential elements of an enjoyable holiday as well as the factors that can spoil their holiday. We also examine what British holiday-makers do on holiday in three of their favourite destinations – Australia, Barbados and South Africa.

Favourite destinations are Australia, Barbados and South Africa

2 2

2: The British Traveller © Tourism Intelligence International


32

As we will see, the weather has everything to do with it. Guaranteed warm weather is considered by British residents to be the most essential element of an enjoyable holiday. More than half of all Britons feel this way.

Warm weather is essential for a good holiday

Significant demographic developments with implications for travel are: the ageing of the population; the growing size of the one-person household; the decline in couples-with dependent- children households; and the rise in DINKS (double income no kids) households as well as the rise in lone-parent households.

2.1 An Ageing Population

One of the most significant demographic developments in Britain, in common with many industrialised nations, is the ageing of its population.

The United Kingdom has a population of 59.3 million (2003), the second largest in Western Europe, after Germany. By the year 2021, the UK population is expected to grow to 64.8 million. Across Europe, the general trend is towards an ageing population as people live longer and fewer children are born.

UK has the second largest population in Western Europe

The population grew by 6.5 per cent in the last thirty years or so, from 55.9 million in 1971 to 59.3 million in mid-2003.

Population increases have not occurred at all ages. Whereas the proportion of the population aged 65 and over has increased, the proportion below the age of 16 is less now than thirty years ago. The percentage of people aged 65 and over increased from 13 per cent in mid-1971 to 16 per cent in mid-2003. Over the same period, the percentage of the population under 16 fell from 25 per cent to 20 per cent.

Increase in the over 65 population Decrease in the under 16 population

Over the last three decades, the median age rose from 34.1 years in mid-1971 to 38.4 in mid-2003. This ageing is primarily the result of past patterns in the number of births, although declines in mortality rates also contribute.

© Tourism Intelligence International 2: The British Traveller


33

Continued population ageing is inevitable during the first half of this century, since the number of elderly people will rise as the relatively large numbers of people born after the Second World War, and during the 1960s baby boom, become older. The working age population will also fall in size as the baby boomers move into retirement, as relatively smaller numbers of people have been born since the mid-1970s.

Figure 2.1 British Population by Age Group, 1901 – 2021

Source: Annual Abstract of Statistics, Office of National Statistics, 2005 From Figure 2.1, it can be seen that the 60+ population will more than triple between 1901 and 2021. The percentage of the population in the age groups 0–14, 20–29 and 45–49 are expected to decline.

By the year 2011, the age distribution of the UK population is expected to evolve as follows:

• The number of children will decrease by nearly one million;

• The number of young adults in the age

bracket 15 to 29 will decrease by over half



34

a million;

• The number in the age bracket 30 to 44 will fall by nearly half a million;

• The number in the age bracket 45 to 59

will increase by over two million;

• The number in the 60 to 74 bracket will increase by over a million, and

• The number aged over 75 will increase by

over half a million. In 2011, the population under 44 years of age is expected to decline by more than two million while those 45 years and over will increase to 3.5 million.

These demographic trends show an ageing population within which the 50+ age group will expand markedly as a proportion of the population in the next 20 years. This age group is a core market for long-haul travel.

The best growth prospects for travel in the future are expected from the more mature age groups who spend more and have more discretionary time available, although the youth travel market is also a very important element of the overall foreign travel market.

In summary, the British population is ageing and the biggest growth and travel potential will come from the 50+ age group. Travel suppliers will need to prepare themselves for an older, more experienced and demanding traveller.

2.2 Travel and Spending by Age Group

British residents from all age groups travel. In 2003, 20% of British travellers who made visits abroad were from the 25–34 age group; 22% of all travellers were in the 35–44 age group; 8.6% were from the age group 16–24 years; 13.5% were from the 55–64 age group, (see Figure 2.2). A total of 8% of travellers were from the 65+ age group which produced the lowest share of travellers.

All age groups travel



35

The largest proportion of travellers in Britain are from the 25–54 age group. Persons over 55 years of age have the lowest travel propensity among all age groups. As the population gets older there is also a tendency to holiday domestically and frequent destinations closer to home. The ageing population could mean a welcome boost for destinations within Britain.

Age also influences the number of visits one takes. Again, the age groups between 25 and 54 years produce the largest number of trips, with the 45–54 age group producing the largest number of visitors (see Figure 2.2). In 2003, the 45–54 age group and the 25–34 age group produced 12.1 and 12.0 million trips respectively. The 55+ age group produced 8.7 million trips while the 65+ age group produced 4.8 million trips. The 55-64 age group produced the highest spending of £8.7 billion in 2003 (see Figure 2.3).

Persons aged 25–54 produce the largest number of trips

Figure 2.2 Number of Visits by Age Group, 2003

Source: Travel Trends 2003, Office for National Statistics, 2004



36

Figure 2.3 Spending (£ million) by Age Group, 2003

1,826

5,673 5,787

8,690

4,827

2,298

6,234

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 60+

Age

Source: Travel Trends 2003, Office for National Statistics, 2004 2.3 Holiday Habits of High Earners

A total of 90% of high-earning British holiday-makers (those who earn in excess of £50,000 (US$97,200 per annum) took a holiday abroad and 74% spent at least five nights abroad.

The majority of high earners travel abroad

It is interesting to note that one-third of high-earning holiday-makers find booking a holiday to be a stressful experience and takes a long time. High earners spend £1,862 (US$3,016) on a holiday abroad compared with the average for all holiday-makers of £1,409 (US$2,283). Half of all high earners between 25 and 34 years old are prepared to sacrifice comfort for cheaper fare and only 38% of high earners in the 45–54 age group will be prepared to sacrifice comfort for price.

2.4 Profession

British residents from all walks of life travel. The largest category of British travellers come from the clerical/supervisory professions. The clerical/supervisory professions account for almost two fifths (37%) of all holiday-makers. This is partially explained by the large volume of cheap package holidays to Mediterranean destinations, particularly Spain, that are still sold

Largest category of British travellers come from clerical/supervisory professions



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annually, especially in the summer. Almost one quarter (24%) of British travellers abroad are from professional/managerial socio-economic groups. Another 21% of British travellers are from skilled manual professions and 18% fall into the category of unskilled/ pensioners/etc. The profile of holiday-makers by type of holiday underlines the importance of income. Adults taking less expensive holiday camp vacations are younger, less well off and more likely to have children at home than the average UK holiday-maker. However, the profile of overseas holiday-makers is not markedly different from the profile of all holiday-makers. This is a reflection of the relative cheapness of overseas vacations.

The higher the income the greater the inclination to travel abroad

While British residents from all walks of life travel, the higher the income, the greater the inclination to travel abroad. Those persons earning £35,000 (US$52,500) per year or more travel abroad more frequently, compared to those earning £25,000 (US$37,500) or less, according to Key Note research.

2.5 Changing Household Structure

The number of households in Britain has increased steadily since 1961. There were 16.3 million households in 1961, and in 2004 there were 24.1 million households, a 48% increase (see Figure 2.4). The steady increase in the number of British households means that there are growing numbers of decision-makers who will be making travel plans and taking holidays. More important than the growth of British households is the changing structure of British households.

Number of British households increasing



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Figure 2.4 Number of British Households, 1961-2004

16.3

20.2

22.423.8 24.1

18.6

23.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1961 1971 1981 1991 1997 2001 2004

Year

No. o

f H

ouse

hold

s (m

illions)

Source: Social Trends 35, Office for National Statistics, 2004 One of the most significant social trends in the UK is the growing size of the percentage of one-person households. From 14% in 1961, the percentage of one-person households doubled to 29% by 2004. The percentage of two-person households has remained relatively stable, showing a slight increase from 30% in 1961 to 35% in 2004. At the same time, there has been a decline in the percentage of households of three, four, five and six or more persons (see Table 2.5).

Percentage of one-person households shows the greatest growth

Table 2.5 Size of British Households, 1961-2004

Percentage Number of Persons 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2004

One Person 14 18 22 27 29 29 Two People 30 32 32 34 35 35 Three People 23 19 27 16 16 16 Four People 18 17 18 16 14 14 Five People 9 8 7 5 5 5 Six or more people 7 6 4 2 2 2 Source: Social Trends 35, Office for National Statistics, 2005



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The increase in the percentage of one-person households has important implications for travel. Whereas in the past it was typical and normal for the head of the household (usually women) to make travel decisions, today, there are many more individual one-person households that one will need to target. It will be important to target and reach each of these households individually.

There has also been a dramatic decline in the percentage of people living in “couple-with-dependent children” households. From 52% in 1961 the “couple-with-dependent-children” households have fallen to 37% in 2004 (see Figure 2.6). At the same time, there has been a stark increase in the percentage of “couple-with-no-children” households, the percentage of “lone parent” and those “living alone”. From a mere 3% of the total population in 1961, “lone-parent” households have increased almost four-fold to 12% in 2004 (see Figure 2.6).

Figure 2.6 Types of British Households, 1961-2004

Note: totals do not add to 100 due to multiple responses Source: Social Trends 35, Office for National Statistics, 2005 The percentage of persons living in households made up of couples with no children has also progressively increased from 18% in 1961 to 19% in 1971 to 20% in 1981 to 23% in 1991 and to 25% in 2001, with no significant change in 2004.

Percentage of DINKS has progressively increased



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With no children and not constrained to travel during the school holidays, the DINK households in Britain are an important source of travel demand. The percentage of households with persons living alone has also shown a systematic increase from 4% of the total in 1961 to 12% of the total in 2004. The increase in lone-parent households also has important implications for the travel market. The types of services and activities provided for lone-parent households will need to be quite different from those provided to the standard “couple-with-dependent-children” households.

Another important trend is the sharp increase in households of lone mothers with dependent children. While the percentage of widowed lone mothers with dependent children households have remained relatively stable, there has been a dramatic increase in the percentage of single lone mothers with dependent children and divorced lone mothers with dependent children between 1971 and 2003 (see Figure 2.7).

A sharp increase in households of lone mothers with dependent children

Figure 2.7 Lone Mothers with Dependent Children by Marital Status 2003

Source: General Household Survey 2003, Office of National Statistics, 2004



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2.6 Participation in Leisure Activities

It is interesting to examine British participation in leisure activities at home as these often influence the types of activities in which one will engage on holiday. In the last 10 years, there has been a marked increase in walking, keep fit/yoga and cycling in Britain. There has also been a slight increase in golf and weight training, and a consistent marginal decline in jogging and cue sports (e.g. pool). There has been a dramatic decline in darts.

A marked increase in walking, keep fit/yoga and cycling

In terms of leisure activities, it is interesting to note that 99% of the British population look at television, 84% read a regional newspaper and 69% read a national newspaper, according to the UK Newspaper Association.

In 2003, three quarters of adults had taken part in some sport or physical activity during the twelve months before interview, while 59% of adults had done so in the four weeks before interview. Excluding people whose only activity was walking, the corresponding overall participation rates were 66% of adults in the last twelve months and 43% of adults in the last four weeks.

In terms of participation in the twelve months prior to 2003, the five most popular sports or physical activities among adults were: • Walking (46%); • Swimming (35%); • Keep fit/yoga – including aerobics and

dance exercise (22%); • Cycling (19%); and • Cue sports - billiards, snooker and pool

(17%).

Walking is the most popular sport

As in previous years, men were more likely than women to participate in sporting activities (either including or excluding walking) in the four weeks before being interviewed. In 1996, 54% of men and 38% of women had participated in at least one activity, excluding walking, in the four weeks before interview. By 2002, participation had fallen to just over half (51%) of men compared with 36% of women (Table 2.8).



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Table 2.8 Top Ten Sports and Physical Activities for Men and Women: Rank order for participation in the four weeks before interview, 2002

Men Women Activity % %

Walking Cue sports Cycling Swimming Soccer Golf Weight training Keep fit/yoga Running Tenpin bowling

36 15 12 12 10 9 9 7 7 4

Walking Keep fit/yoga Swimming Cycling Cue sports Weight training Running Tenpin bowling Horse riding Tennis

34 16 15 6 4 3 3 3 2 2

Source: Living in Britain 2002, Office for National Statistics, 2004 2.7 Who are the British Tourists?

In addition to the demographics of the British travel market, it is important to examine its psychographics – the way the British think, feel and behave. It is also important to examine how these patterns are likely to change in the future.

Research by the English Tourist Board uncovered four types of British travellers based on the different needs that people have in relation to holidays and the different attitudes they have toward holidays.

The four British traveller types identified are: • Adventurers • Controllers • Captives • Traditionalists

British travellers fall into four categories

They are defined and explained below:

Adventurers The Adventurers consider themselves to be free spirits with fairly broad horizons. They dream of the people and places they would visit, and more often than not are not able to fulfill those dreams. They have a limited sense of responsibility, are quite young, or at least young at heart, and are quite often in the higher socio-economic groups.

Adventurers are free-spirited



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They have no desire to be organised on holiday and often do not like to commit to anything more than the bare essentials. They are more likely than other types to consider taking a flight only and making do when they arrive. Controllers Controllers differ from Adventurers in that they are likely to take responsibility for themselves on holiday. They want to plan and organise their own itinerary too, but are quite happy to use packaged holiday products as a means to this end. They regard themselves as independent travellers and so would not consider a packaged holiday as a holiday itself, although if available cheaply and it allowed them to be independent while away then it was acceptable. They tend to be quite authoritative, and to know what they want and how to get it. They are confident travellers.

Controllers are independent

In terms of demographics, Controllers are more likely to be youngish, early twenties to late thirties. Many did have children and had perhaps developed from being Adventurers, with a limited sense of responsibility, to Controllers, with a greater sense of responsibility. They, too, are relatively up-market, or at least educated.

Captives Captives often aspire to be Controllers or Adventurers but are constrained in choice of destination or type of holiday by their circumstances. They are limited often by their finances and occasionally by family needs. They aspire to holidays that are beyond their pocket or inaccessible because of the restrictions of their situation. They believe they are making the most of what is on offer to them, temporarily at least. Some day their ship will come in and they will be off to places of which they dreamt. The fact that many have been dreaming for several years is not a dampener.

Captives are limited by finance

In terms of responsibility, in contrast to the Controllers and Adventurers, Captives feel responsible to others, and as such tend to worry more about holidays. There does not appear to be any distinctive type of Captive, in terms of



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demographics. Some fairly young respondents appear to be Captives, particularly those who are saving to get married, buy a house or who have just had a child. They are often Captives as a result of their finances. Some young families perceive themselves to be restricted by finance and the age of their children. Older respondents can also be Captives. Some, for example, are restricted by other family members’ failing health, and wanted to stay close to home in case of emergency. Overall, it is likely that the Captive is in the lower socio-economic groups and less well off. The better-off respondents are less likely to be Captives because, even if their circumstances are constraining, they can afford to get around the problem. Traditionalists Traditionalists are diametrically opposed to Adventurers and desire comfort in the form of security and familiarity. Traditionalists are most likely to be found taking the same holiday year in, year out, and if it was not the very same holiday it would be the same type of holiday experience. Traditionalists prefer to defer the responsibility of taking and organizing a holiday to others, typically a travel agent and then a tour representative or property owner at the destination. They would feel lost without contact on site. Traditionalists have strong commitment to a pre-defined set of holiday principles. Overall, Traditionalists tend to be older in outlook, if not in age. They are more likely to be in the lower socio-economic groups and somewhat less educated. They are not cosmopolitan and desire their familiar creature comforts to be available to them, wherever they are.

Traditionalists don’t favour change

2.7.1 Holiday Preferences

It is also important to examine British attitudes toward holidays. Here again the English Tourist Board research identified some useful trends: • There is an overwhelming preference for

holidaying abroad. • Those that had not taken a holiday abroad

claimed they had been forced by

An overwhelming preference for holidaying abroad



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circumstances, mainly financial, to holiday in Britain.

• Taking a holiday abroad is considered the

norm by many. Everyone, of all ages and positions, stressed this about holidays they had taken.

• Cost comes at every stage — but the initial

budget is often stretched. Most adopt, in the end, a “to hell with it!” attitude, claiming they can always find the money somewhere.

This illustrates the importance the British place on having a good main holiday. 2.8 Attitudes Toward Sustainable Tourism

Tourism Intelligence International launched UK tour operator surveys in May 2000 and again in September 2004, where 20 of the top 25 tour operators from the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) were systematically interviewed. Tour operators were asked to indicate their views on sustainable tourism. Both surveys revealed, interestingly, that tour operators would like to be involved in sustainable tourism. However, they indicated that their clients were more interested in the price of a holiday rather than in sustainability. According to one tour operator surveyed, passengers start out with good intentions and would like to feel that they are supporting sustainable tourism aims, but there are other things that come into play and sway them, like price. Very few passengers are looking for “green” holidays, although in the last two to three years there has been a growth in awareness. One tour operator indicated that there is definitely more interest in green destinations such as Alaska, Norway, the Amazon, Cape Horn, the Chilean Fjords and the Falklands etc. Less than 1% of people seek out sustainable holidays now, but this number will grow to 5% over the next 20 years.

Travellers are more interested in the price of the holiday rather than sustainability Definitely more interest in green destinations

Many tour operators believed that sustainability did not rank high on British consumers’ decision-making lists when it came to choosing a holiday. Nevertheless, the tour operators themselves



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identified a number of actions taken towards sustainability. Tour operators: • Take into account the sustainability of

tourism such as by limiting group sizes; • Do not offer Antarctica due to ecological

sensitivities; • Take a long-term view of the destinations

they feature – they are in it for the long term, so they have to take sustainability into account;

• Look at the possibility of negative PR

relating to such sustainability issues; • Are involved in certain areas, e.g. green

hotels in a couple of destinations; • Encourage passengers, especially via resort

staff, to be aware of their surroundings and that they are guests in the destination;

• Start to look for other destinations when

demand starts exceeding supply; and • Have green policies as regards the paper

used for their brochures. On the destination side, tour operators indicated that very few hotels had green policies, due to cost. They also indicated that: • Destinations tend to get involved in these

issues if they have problems, but not when they are getting the business.

• When destinations reach saturation levels

or start to have problems, then they might become more aware of sustainable tourism issues.

• Green issues were important to tourist

organisations and suppliers. • Destinations themselves vary wildly in

their concern about sustainability. Some are incredibly strict (re cruise ships); other destinations are less hot on these things.

Few hotels have green policies



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• Some destinations take sustainability issues into account, particularly Majorca, where the new government introduced a tourist tax (later rescinded due to pressure), to regenerate areas for environmental improvement.

• It is accepted that developers can’t just

build and build, and several destinations are putting a moratorium on construction projects.

• Most destinations are now aware – e.g.

Benidorm – that high rises are not best, and are trying to limit what can be done in terms of future development.

In general, concern is growing but not quickly enough. Tour operators believe that awareness of sustainability issues needs to be raised within Britain itself.

2.9 Essential Elements of an Enjoyable Holiday

The elements identified as being essential to a holiday has not changed significantly for the British over the last five years or so. However, factors such as crime and safety are now important elements of an enjoyable holiday. This perhaps explains why cruises and all-inclusive type holidays have grown in popularity as they offer safety, within a well planned and well controlled environment.

Safety and security are important factors in an enjoyable holiday

Guaranteed warm weather is considered by British residents to be a major essential element of an enjoyable holiday. Almost half of all Britons (49%) feel this way. Interestingly, this attitude is similarly held among Germans. Almost half (46%) of German travellers prefer to take one trip to the sunny South than to take two trips within Germany.

Warm weather is an essential holiday ingredient

After the weather, the British look for interesting sightseeing, reasonably priced drinks, local cuisine, uncrowded beaches, the feeling of experiencing a new culture, and convenient transport to and from the UK. A total of 44% of British travellers look for interesting sightseeing;



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almost one third (31%) look for reasonably priced drinks and local cuisine, and 30% look for uncrowded beaches. Figure 2.9 Essential Elements of an Enjoyable Holiday

Source: NOP/Mintel, 2000 Convenient transport to and from the UK, visiting a new country or area, nightlife, a choice of British and local food, and resort visited before/“British” atmosphere are also essential elements of an enjoyable holiday, although to a lesser degree. Only 7% of British travellers look for a “British” atmosphere in their travels.

In terms of holiday type and cost, the majority of British travellers (63%) have a preference for a high standard of accommodation as well as being able to relax completely. There is also a premium placed on being able to tour and not be stuck in one place, as well as not having to cook. Well-organised holidays with good representatives on the ground and interesting trips, according to

Britons like high-standard accommodation



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Mintel, are also considered to be essential elements of an enjoyable holiday for British travellers (see Figure 2.10). Figure 2.10 Essential Elements of an Enjoyable Holiday (By Holiday type and cost)

Source: NOP/Mintel, 2000 Very importantly, one quarter of British travellers look for the feeling of independence and not being part of a crowd. This thirst for “independence” is increasingly reflected in the growth of independent holidays. If the holiday offers something that the kids will enjoy, this will also be an asset for 24% of travellers.

British thirst for independence

In terms of the package holiday, the key demands for the British on holiday were security, expertise and efficient arrangements, according to Thomas Cook’s research by JMC. To experience a destination without “hand-holding” and to be treated as individuals by caring, helpful staff are also key elements for British holiday-makers, the JMC survey revealed.

2.10 Factors That Can Spoil a Holiday

For the majority of British travellers, the most important factor that can spoil a holiday is crowded or rowdy resorts. Crowded or rowdy

British do not like crowded or rowdy resorts



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beaches can spoil a holiday for nearly two thirds of all British respondents (see Figure 2.11). The danger of crime and terrorism is another factor that can spoil a holiday for more than half (53%) of British travellers. Being hassled or harassed by people in the street, poor service from the holiday company, and accommodation being in the wrong place can also spoil a holiday for British travellers. Half of all British travellers surveyed felt this way. Illness (e.g. upset stomach, insect bites), air travel problems (e.g. delays, long airport transfers), brochures/advertisements not living up to expectations, a place which has been “taken over” by British tourists, chance of bad weather, nothing to do in the evening, nothing for children to do, a place which has been “taken over” by other nationalities, and “nobody seems to speak English” are other elements that can ruin a holiday for more than 20% of British travellers. The feeling of being “ripped off” when buying something can also spoil a holiday for almost two thirds of British travellers surveyed.

Being hassled and receiving poor service can also spoil a holiday

With respect to the package holiday, JMC research revealed that the key complaints of British travellers were companies who over-promise and under-deliver; queues and delays at airports and with transfers or flights; lack of information and unhelpful, evasive staff who seem to make things up rather than being honest when things go wrong; last-minute booking changes and reps who do not care about customers were also key complaints of British travellers.

Honesty in advertising is critical

Quality and standards of hygiene were also important factors that would deter British travellers from a destination. Two thirds of holiday-makers would be deterred from visiting a country which had a reputation for poor food hygiene, revealed food hygiene specialist Cristal International in its April 2000 research. The results showed that 86% of British people were less tolerant of food hygiene abroad than they had been in the past. Britons were most likely to worry about food poisoning abroad, with 59% saying they were concerned about the risks, compared with 22% of Germans. But German travellers were more likely to take precautions,

Quality and standards of hygiene are important



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with 43% avoiding “high risk” foods compared with only 14% of Britons. Figure 2.11 What can Spoil a Holiday

Source: NOP/Mintel, 2000 2.11 What the British do on Holiday

British holiday-makers participate in a number of activities when on holiday. The activities in which they participate depend very much on the destinations visited and the purpose of the visit. In what follows, we trace the British on holiday in three of the popular destinations.

2.11.1 In Australia

The main activities undertaken by the British in Australia are shopping for pleasure, going to the beach and pubs, clubs, discos etc. The majority of UK travellers (82%) to Australia go shopping

British like to go shopping



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for pleasure, 73% go to the beach and 66% frequent pubs, clubs and discos. More than half of all visitors to Australia visit markets, national parks as well as visit botanical and other public gardens. Forty-seven percent of British visitors visit wildlife parks/zoos. Trips to historical and cultural sites, heritage buildings, monuments, museums and art galleries are undertaken by 37% of all visitors. One third of British visitors to Australia go on guided tours or excursions.

One-third of British travellers to Australia are interested in culture and heritage

Figure 2.12 Top Ten Activities Undertaken by the British in Australia, 2004

Source: International Visitor Survey, Tourism Research Australia, 2005 The average duration of stay in Australia for the UK traveller in 2004 was 38 nights up from 35.6 nights in 2000. Nearly 60% of UK visitors were repeat visitors, while 83% were non-package tour visitors.



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British holiday-makers spend most (29%) on food and drink followed by accommodation (21%). Next in line are shopping (10%) and organised tours (8%) (see Figure 2.13).

The British spend more on food than on accommodation in Australia

Figure 2.13 British Expenditure in Australia, 2004

Source: Tourism Research Australia, 2005 The UK is one of the world’s five source markets for Australia. The relative strength of the European currencies, particularly the UK pound, against the Australian dollar, coupled with low-cost airfares means that Australia is now a very affordable holiday destination for increasing numbers of British travellers. Moreover, the increased travel experience of British travellers is causing them to crave faraway destinations such as Australia, even on shorter trips.

UK is one of the largest source markets for Australia

The UK is by far the largest and most important European market for Australia, producing 631,900 travellers in 2004. The UK has experienced strong economic growth over the past five years and accounts for approximately 50% of all European arrivals to Australia and over 10% of



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the worldwide total. In 2004 over a third (37%) of UK visitors used the internet to get information about Australia for their visit before they left the UK, up from 27% in 2003. For more research and analyses of Australia refer to “Successful Tourism Destinations – Lessons from the Leaders” published in 2004 by Tourism Intelligence International.

2.11.2 In Barbados

Barbados, known as “Little England”, has historically received a relatively large percentage – 39.7% in 2003 – of its arrivals from the UK market. The strength of the UK economy, together with considerable improvements in plant and quality services in Barbados, (for example, complete rebuliding of the famous Sandy Bay Hotel and other developments (Port St. Charles and Sugar Hill), which have ensured that the island continues to hold its own in the UK market. More than 25% of the UK arrivals are from Greater London, with another 30% from South East England.

Barbados receives a third of its arrivals from Britain

Barbados has been a catalyst for growth in British tourist arrivals in the Caribbean – its inspirational appeal and image as the “wintering ground of the rich and the famous” has drawn increasing numbers to the Caribbean. Climate/beaches with a score of 9.3 (out of 10) is one of the most important factors in the decision to travel to Barbados. In fact, climate/beaches is the single “most important” reason for visiting Barbados (see Figure 2.14).

Climate and beaches are the most important reasons to visit Barbados



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Figure 2.14 Main Factors in UK Tourists’ Decision to Visit Barbados

10=Very Important 7.5=Important 5=Somewhat Important 2.5=Not so Important 0=Not Important Source: Barbados Stay-over Visitor Survey, Barbados Ministry of Tourism, 2004 The accessibility of Barbados was a somewhat important reason for British travellers to make a decision to visit Barbados. Culture and heritage were also somewhat important reasons to visit Barbados. Closeness to nature and sports were also somewhat important reasons for the British in their decision to visit Barbados.

Accessibility of Barbados – a drawing card

Like Australia, nearly 70% of UK tourists went shopping while in Barbados. Just under half of the British visitors (46.4%) participated in water sports while 43% went on a boat trip and just over 10% participated in golf and 6.4% in scuba diving (see Figure 2.15).

Shopping is also important in Barbados



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Figure 2.15 UK Tourists’ Participation in Activities in Barbados (%)

% of Respondents

Source: Barbados Stay-over Visitor Survey, Barbados Ministry of Tourism, 2004 Water-based activities (water sports, boat trips, scuba diving and fishing) are naturally important activities in which the British participate while on holiday in Barbados. Golf is growing in importance with the construction/expansion of Barbados’ golf courses.

Accommodation takes the lion’s share of British expenditure in Barbados. Almost two thirds of all spending in Barbados is captured by the accommodation sector. British travellers spend, on average, US$87.30 per day on accommodation in Barbados, US$23.70 on meals and drinks per day, US$7.08 on transportation and US$4.19 on souvenirs (see Figure 2.16).

The British spend more on accommodation in Barbados



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Figure 2.16 Percentage Share of Daily Expenditure per Visitor in Barbados

Source: Barbados Stayover Visitor Survey, Barbados Ministry of Tourism, 2004 British visitors appear to be very satisfied with Barbados. In terms of visitor satisfaction, over 90% would probably and definitely return to Barbados. Similarly, 96.6% would probably and definitely recommend Barbados to a friend or relative (see Figure 2.17). For more research and analyses of Barbados refer to “Successful Tourism Destinations – Lessons from the Leaders” published in 2004 by Tourism Intelligence International.

British visitors are very satisfied with their visits to Barbados



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Figure 2.17 UK tourists’ Willingness to return to Barbados (%)

Source: Barbados Stayover Visitor Survey, Barbados Ministry of Tourism, 2004 2.11.3 In South Africa

South Africa receives the bulk of its arrivals from Africa. However, Europe accounts for the highest percentage of its international visitors. United Kingdom is the largest overseas market with a total of 456,468 arrivals in 2004.

UK provides the majority of international arrivals to South Africa

Three quarters of UK visitors to South Africa indicated that they had received advice from friends at home, friends in South Africa, business associates and family to visit South Africa.

Just over a third (35%) of the UK visitors indicated that wildlife was a major attraction for them to visit South Africa. The other attractions of South Africa were scenic beauty (28%), visiting friends and relatives (27%), to experience African culture (21%), to see the country after political change (18%), business reasons (17%), curiosity (16%) and value for money (13%).

Wildlife is the main attraction to visit South Africa

The UK market represents 22% of all foreign visitors to South Africa, with 65% of UK visitors indicating that they were on holiday, 15% on business and 15% visiting friends and relatives.



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On departure from South Africa, 43% of UK visitors identified scenic beauty as the most appealing characteristic of South Africa. The other appealing characteristics for UK visitors were the wildlife (40%), value for money (33%), African culture (24%), political changes (20%) and visiting friends and relatives (19%). Fourteen percent found diversity of attractions and climate to be appealing characteristics of South Africa.

Scenic beauty is the most appealing characteristic of South Africa

The UK visitor spends an average of 19 nights in South Africa, with average expenditure of £1,096 while in South Africa, according to 2003 statistics.

UK visitors give South Africa the highest overall rating (9.3 out of 10) for enjoyment of their stay in South Africa. Just over two thirds of UK visitors state that they would definitely visit South Africa again, while a further 21% indicate that they would probably visit again. For more research and analyses of South Africa refer to “Successful Tourism Destinations – Lessons from the Leaders” published in 2004 by Tourism Intelligence International.

UK visitors enjoy South Africa

2.12 Implications for your Business

The British population is ageing. The greatest increase in the next five years will be in those aged 50+, the post-war baby boomers. This is an age group where major lifestyle changes can be expected as children leave home, retirement approaches and grandchildren come into the picture. Travel suppliers will need to create/enhance products that cater to this mature market segment. Important demographic trends with implications for travel are as follows: • The over 60s age group will see the biggest

growth. There will be a rise in the number of retired men with spare time whose incomes are boosted by occupational pensions.

• Britain will also have a more mobile

population in their twenties, prepared to travel extensively, including taking time off from work. Here, more adventurous

Suppliers need to cater to the mature market Suppliers need to be aware of the diversity of the British travel market Provide travellers with an intensive experience



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learning experience- intensive options will have good growth.

• More couples are delaying having children,

freeing them to spend more on holidays. • Double income no kids (DINKS)

households are an important travel market source.

• The increase in one-person households

means there are many more individual one-person households that will need to be targeted. One will need to target and reach each of these households individually.

• The increase in lone-parent households also

has important implications for the travel market. The types of services and activities provided for lone-parent households will need to be quite different from those provided to the standard couple-with-dependent children households.

• The increase in the average age of

consumers in almost all major European economies will have a major impact on tour operators and destinations.

It is likely that demand will shift away from price-sensitive, crowded beach areas to quality coastal developments, lakes and mountains, city breaks and higher priced long-haul travel. Adults now entering the age 45-plus category are increasingly sophisticated travellers, empty nesters ready for wider experiences. There is a growing interest in outdoor activities, particularly walking. Those destinations that organise and provide such outdoor (soft, medium and hard) adventure and sport activities will benefit.

Consumers and destinations still have a long way to go to tackle sustainable development “issues”. However, those destinations and suppliers that are proactive will win. Do not wait until there is a problem to act. Partnerships between destinations and travel suppliers, both home and abroad, will be winners. In satisfying British tourists on

Tips on targeting the British Traveller



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holiday, be sure to deliver what is promised; veer sharply from crowded/rowdy resorts; reduce crime/harassment and deliver quality service. It is important to work hard on these aspects that you can influence since you cannot influence the chance of bad weather.

Documents

How the British Will Travel 2010 - SETE library... · 1.2 Thirst for Faraway Destinations 4 1.3 Size and Importance 5 1.4 Main Regions and their Travel Intensities 11 1.5 Main Regions