15 REGIONS15 REGIONSEVALUATION OF THE MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS OF

COHESION POLICY PROGRAMMES AND PROJECTS OVER THE LONGER TERM IN 15 REGIONS

(1989-1993 TO THE PRESENT)

Final Report

Professor John BachtlerProfessor Iain BeggDr Laura Polverari

Professor David Charles

Objectives and scopeObjectives and scope

OBJECTIVES1. To examine the achievements of ERDF

programmes and, where applicable, CF

2. To assess – programme relevance– effectiveness – utility of achievements

SCOPE15 regions of the EU15:• Objective 1/Convergence Regions • Phasing-in/Out Regions• Objective 2/RCE Regions

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MethodologyMethodology

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• Desk research • Fieldwork – 20-70 semi-structured interviews per region• Online survey• Quantitative analyses – productivity, employment, expenditure• Regional seminars • Project case studies

ChallengesChallenges• Scope of research• coverage• timescale

• Unavailability and deficiencies of data • financial allocations and expenditure• lack of regional breakdown for MOPs/NOPs • data quality

• Establishing causalities

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EQ1 – To what extent did the EQ1 – To what extent did the programmes address regional programmes address regional

needs and problems over time?needs and problems over time?

Initial needs and evolutionInitial needs and evolutionInitial needs• Four broad types of, sometimes overlapping, needs:

• major underdevelopment across all indicators• sparsity and peripherality• weak economic base• spatial and labour market disequilibria

Evolution of needs• improvement in basic infrastructure and services• varied evolution of most other themes• improved innovation, increased entrepreneurship or sectoral

diversification often persists as need

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Development of strategiesDevelopment of strategiesApproach to strategy

• different interpretations of ‘strategy’• explicit strategies vs. implicit strategies• initial focus on ‘tried and tested’ interventions, e.g. infrastructure.

•Thematic trends over time:• greater emphasis on R&D&I, from 2000• more support to entrepreneurship/SME interventions• increased emphasis on urban regeneration, community development• continuity in tourism, environment, CBC

• more region-specific and coherent strategies, but…..• ……strategies largely not underpinned by theory

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RelevanceRelevance

• High relevance – programme strategies relevant across the study period:• Sachsen-Anhalt, Norte, Galicia, Burgenland, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Ireland and

Nordrhein-Westfalen

• Moderate to high relevance - programme strategies relevant for much of the time, or for some areas of need:• Basilicata, Campania and Andalucía

• Moderate relevance - programme strategies only partially relevant• Dytiki Ellada, Itä-Suomi, Algarve, Aquitaine and North East England

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ExpenditureExpenditure

• Objective 1/Convergence - predominance of infrastructure spending

• Phasing-in/out - infrastructure focus in 1989-93 but diversifying to enterprise support and, later, structural adjustment and innovation

• Objective 2/RCE- shift in focus from enterprise to innovation

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EQ2 – To what extent do ERDF EQ2 – To what extent do ERDF achievements meet regional achievements meet regional objectives and needs in each objectives and needs in each

programme period and across all programme period and across all periods?periods?

AchievementsAchievements• Inevitable data problems • Most visible results from infrastructure and other capital projects

• True especially of earlier programming periods• Lower achievements in economic development - fragmentation• Findings highlight problems with strategies, such as:

• Additionality and deadweight, especially in enterprise support• Ensuring critical mass and scale of investments• Long-time scales for bringing some projects to fruition - may span

programming periods• Lack of allowance for sustainability (maintenance and running costs)• Aggravating territorial imbalances in some regions

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EffectivenessEffectivenessThe extent to which programme objectives were achieved:a)achievement of programme objectivesb)achievement of targets related to measures and priorities

•Cohesion policy intervention 1989-2012 effective on the whole • Yet substantial variation by period, theme and region

•‘Effectiveness’ not meaningful where objectives/targets not adequately set

•Effectiveness higher for large-scale physical investments:• Infrastructure, environmental improvements and business infrastructure

•Results for business support and social cohesion more disappointing• Possible explanation is relative ease of setting targets where projects are known

and costed at programming stage

•Improvements in effectiveness over time in most regions a) Except Norte and Campania (due to unrealistic objectives)

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UtilityUtilityThe extent to which programmes led to impacts in line with ‘society's needs & the socio-economic problems to be solved’

•Infrastructure-led strategies addressed basic needs •Less successful in stimulating economic transition notably in less developed regions•Better targeting improved utility of enterprise and innovation

• Gains visible over time•Little improvement on social problems in industrial regions•Tourism and cultural interventions in many CS a critical but not sufficient dimension of development

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Overall contribution of ERDF Overall contribution of ERDF programmes to regional developmentprogrammes to regional development

• Example of being transformative across the board:• Ireland, affecting nation as a whole

• Significant overall transformative effect on region:• Characterised by successful sequence of development• Algarve, Andalucía and Galicia

• Enabled transformation in specific fields: • Aggregate effect less evident• Most of other regions

• Significant effects on key elements of development• Less-well funded regions such as Burgenland or Itä Suomi• Key message is that scale of funding matters

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EQ3 –What are the main lessons EQ3 –What are the main lessons learnt on the effectiveness and learnt on the effectiveness and utility of ERDF interventions in utility of ERDF interventions in

each region? each region?

Lessons learnt: Lessons learnt: Programme design Programme design

Validation of the current programming approach – and need for it to be extended to promote:

•scenario-thinking

•contingency planning , sensitivity analysis

•a long-term approach to competitiveness to ensure resilience

•realism of expectations – timescales, resources

•explicit recognition of constraints

•external coherence and synergies

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Lessons learnt: Lessons learnt: Strategic planningStrategic planning

Effective strategy development requires programme authorities to invest in analytical and planning capacity:

• conceptual thinking

• evidence-based approach

• framing of ERDF programming within wider policy effort

• capture societal and institutional facets of economic development

• exposing planning and decision-making to external challenge

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Lessons learnt: Lessons learnt: Results-orientation & achievementsResults-orientation & achievements

Improvement in results-orientated management:

•start with an underlying development theory

•identify the necessary (pre-)conditions

•periodic monitoring of the effects of measures and projects on end-users with

• ad hoc fieldwork investigations • qualitative as well as quantitative monitoring

•encourage rigorous, objective and ambitious evaluation • evaluate the programmes ex post• focus on the achievements realised and how they met objectives

(effectiveness) and changed the region (utility)

•foster debate on achievements

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Lessons learnt: Investment Lessons learnt: Investment choices & achievementschoices & achievements

Learn lessons from past experience with investment choices and achievements with respect to:

•operational costs of capital projects

•overprovision of certain forms of intervention

•complementing public investment in innovation with private sector support

•integrated strategies for enterprise support

•sufficient scale for community development activities

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Implications for the future of Implications for the future of Cohesion policyCohesion policy

The study has provided clear evidence to support the direction of Cohesion policy in 2014-2020

However, there are significant obstacles

•changes to policy priorities and management practices takes time

•major effort is required to build administrative capacities and promote learning to deal with the deficits identified

•primacy of the need to encourage a more sophisticated approach to long-term strategic analysis and planning

•need to think strategically beyond 2020: regional roadmaps for countries and regions – where are the problems? what needs to be done?

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Regional Policy

Regional Policy

Thank you for your attention….

Evaluation Available at:

http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/information/evaluations/index_en.cfm#15

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