Housing Opportunities and Market Experience Survey

HOME Survey Housing Opportunities and

Market Experience

March 2016

National Association of REALTORS® Research Department

Introduction

The new Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) report was created to monitor consumer sentiment about the housing market. This new report covers core topics that will be tracked on a monthly basis such as views on if now is a good time to buy or sell a home, the perception of home price changes, perceived ability to qualify for a mortgage, and the outlook on the U.S. economy.

Additionally, current topical trends are covered in the HOME survey. This quarter survey respondents were asked about their future housing preferences if they were to purchase a home in the next six months including size, home type, and location.

On a monthly basis renters and homeowners are asked about their personal financial outlook which is indexed on a scale of 0 to 100. Data will be reported not only on ownership status, but by age, income, and type of geographic location.

Additional topics will be examined in depth on http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/ including whether housing as a good financial investment, whether homeownership is part of the American Dream, and if renters want to become homeowners.

This HOME survey will be released on a quarterly basis. The 2016 release dates are:

June15, 2016

September 14, 2016

December 14, 2016

2016 NAR HOME Survey

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/

Good Time to Buy a Home

Seventy-five percent of people believe now is a good time to buy a home.

Forty-four percent believe that strongly.

Only 25 percent of people believe now is not a good time to buy a home

and 12 percent believe that strongly.

Not surprisingly, with rapid home price acceleration, those who are

currently renting or living with someone else, those who are under 34

years of age, and those who live in urban areas are less confident now is a

good time to buy, however even among those groups the majority do feel

now is a good time to buy a home.

Four in five people who currently own a home, those over 65 years of age,

those with incomes over $50,000 and those in the Midwest believe now is

a good time to buy a home.


%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

A Good Time Not a Good Time

44%

12%

31%

13%

Good Time to Buy a Home, Strongly or Moderately

Strongly Moderately

25%

75%

Good Time to Buy a Home


Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over

A Good

Time

66% 77% 78% 78% 81%

Not a Good

Time

34% 23% 22% 22% 19%

Household

Income: Under $50,000

$50,000 to

$100,000

More than

$100,000

A Good Time 68% 80% 83%

Not a Good Time 32% 20% 17%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West

A Good Time 74% 80% 77% 68%

Not a Good Time 26% 20% 23% 32%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban

A Good Time 77% 77% 69%


Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone

A Good Time 82% 62% 66%


Good Time to Sell a Home

Fifty-six percent of people believe now is a good time to sell a home, 28

percent believe that strongly.

Forty-four percent believe now is not a good time to sell a home, 20

percent believe that strongly.

Those who are in the West are most likely to think now is a good time to

sell a home. They conversely are also the least likely region to think now is

a good time to buy a home.


%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A Good Time Now is Not a Good Time

28% 20%

28%

24%

Now is Good Time To Sell, Strongly or Moderately

Strongly Moderately

56%

44%

Good Time to Sell a Home



A Good

Time

51% 56% 57% 57% 63%

Not a Good

Time

49% 44% 43% 43% 37%

Household


$50,000 to

$100,000

More than

$100,000

A Good Time 53% 57% 61%



A Good Time 47% 60% 52% 66%

Not a Good Time 53% 40% 48% 34%


A Good Time 50% 58% 59%



A Good Time 58% 56% 45%


Home Prices in the Past 12 Months

Fifty percent of people believe that within their communities prices have

gone up in the last 12 months. Thirty-nine percent believe prices have

stayed the same and 11 percent believe prices have gone down.

Those who are in the West and in urban areas are most likely to report

that prices have increased in their communities.

Fifty-seven percent of renters compared to 48 percent of owners believe

prices have increased in the last year.


Gone Up

50%

Gone Down

11%

Stayed the Same

39%

During Past 12 Months, Home Prices in Community

Have…

Home Prices in the Past 12 Months



Gone Up 48% 53% 51% 49% 52%

Gone

Down

11% 13% 9% 11% 10%

Stayed the

Same

41% 34% 40% 40% 39%

Household


$50,000 to

$100,000

More than

$100,000

Gone Up 47% 47% 62%

Gone Down 12% 11% 7%

Stayed the Same 41% 42% 30%


Gone Up 42% 43% 48% 67%

Gone Down 11% 12% 13% 6%

Stayed the Same 46% 45% 39% 28%


Gone Up 36% 52% 60%

Gone Down 15% 10% 9%



Gone Up 48% 57% 47%

Gone Down 11% 11% 10%


Home Prices in the Next Six Months

Nearly half, 47 percent, of people believe that prices will stay the same in

their communities in the six months. Forty-four percent believe prices will

increase in the next six months and nine percent believe prices will go

down in the next six months.

Those who are in the West and in urban areas are most likely to believe

prices will go up in their communities.

Fifty-two percent of renters compared to 41 percent of owners believe

prices will increase in their communities in the next six months.


9% believe home prices will go down in the next 6 months

44% believe prices will increase in the next 6 months

47% believe home prices will stay the same in the next 6 months

Home Prices in the Next Six Months



Will Go Up 46% 46% 42% 42% 43%

Will Go

Down

12% 9% 10% 9% 6%

Stay the

Same

43% 45% 49% 49% 51%

Household


$50,000 to

$100,000

More than

$100,000

Will Go Up 44% 41% 49%

Will Go Down 10% 10% 6%

Stay the Same 46% 50% 44%


Will Go Up 39% 40% 42% 55%

Will Go Down 9% 9% 11% 6%

Stay the Same 52% 51% 47% 39%


Will Go Up 29% 45% 56%




Will Go Up 41% 52% 44%



Qualify for a Mortgage

Among those who currently do not own a home, 30 percent believe it

would be very difficult and 33 percent believe it would be somewhat

difficult to qualify for a mortgage given their current financial situation.

Seventy percent of those who make under $50,000 believe it would be at

least somewhat difficult to qualify for a mortgage compared to only 29

percent of those making over $100,000.


%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Very Difficult Somewhat

Difficult

Not Very

Difficult

Not At All

Difficult

30%

33%

23%

14%

With Household’s Current Financial Situation,

Perceived Difficulty Qualifying for a Mortgage

Qualify for a Mortgage



Very Difficult 29% 24% 31% 41% 36%

Somewhat Difficult 33% 40% 35% 31% 19%

Not Very Difficult 25% 28% 19% 14% 12%

Not At All Difficult 13% 8% 15% 15% 34%

Household

Income: Under $50,000 $50,000 to $100,000 More than $100,000

Very Difficult 38% 16% 9%

Somewhat Difficult 32% 37% 20%

Not Very Difficult 21% 28% 42%

Not At All Difficult 9% 19% 29%


Very Difficult 30% 27% 30% 32%

Somewhat Difficult 31% 34% 35% 30%

Not Very Difficult 24% 22% 22% 26%

Not At All Difficult 15% 16% 13% 12%


Very Difficult 34% 30% 28%

Somewhat Difficult 38% 33% 30%

Not Very Difficult 18% 23% 27%

Not At All Difficult 10% 13% 15%

Tenure: Rent Live with someone

Very Difficult 27% 38%

Somewhat Difficult 36% 26%

Not Very Difficult 23% 25%

Not At All Difficult 15% 12%

48% believe the U.S. economy is

improving

52% believe the U.S. economy is not improving

Outlook on U.S. Economy


Forty-eight percent of people believe the U.S. economy is improving.

Six in ten who are under 34 years of age believe the economy is improving.

Those who are renters and living with someone else are more optimistic

than homeowners about the U.S. economy.

Sixty-six percent of those in rural areas, and 64 percent of people 65 and

older do not believe the economy is improving.

Outlook on U.S. Economy



Improving 60% 49% 47% 39% 37%

Not Improving 40% 52% 53% 61% 64%

Household

Income: Under $50,000 $50,000 to $100,000 More than $100,000

Improving 51% 46% 49%

Not Improving 49% 54% 51%


Improving 49% 45% 49% 48%

Not Improving 51% 55% 51% 52%







Bigger and Better?

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Own Rent Live with someone

20%

51%

23%

49%

38%

35%

31% 11%

41%

Preferred Home Size by Current Tenure

Larger than current home About the same size Smaller than current home

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over

43% 41% 27%

13% 12%

40% 44%

44%

49% 48%

17% 15% 29%

38% 40%

Preferred Home Size by Age

Larger than current home About the same size Smaller than current home

Survey respondents were asked about their future buying preferences. In

particular, assuming the purchase of a home in the next six months, what would

those surveyed be looking for in home size, type and location.

If the respondent assumed they were buying a home in the next six months,

renters and younger buyers would buy larger homes than they currently

reside in.

Older buyers would generally buy smaller or similarly sized homes.

Those who currently are owners, would most often buy the same sized

home, while those residing with someone else would buy smaller homes.


Single Family Home Most Popular

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


85% 75%

67%

7% 11%

16%

9% 14% 17%

Preferred Type of Home by Current Tenure

Single family home Townhouse Condo

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


75% 88% 89% 81% 75%

13%

6% 5% 8%

9%

12% 6% 6% 11% 16%

Preferred Type of Home by Age

Single family home Townhouse Condo


The most popular type of home that respondents would buy if they were

buying a home in the next six months is a single family detached home.

Among those who are currently living with someone else, buyers over 65,

and those who are renting, buying a condo is a more attractive option

compared with current homeowners.

Preferred Location

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


15% 21% 21%

37%

48% 46%

14%

12% 14% 34%

19% 20%

Preferred Type of Home by Current Tenure

Rural setting Suburban area over 20 miles from a city center

Suburban area within 20 miles from a city center Urban area

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


20% 13% 15% 13% 19%

46% 46% 38% 36%

36%

15% 14%

13% 13%

12%

19% 27% 34% 38% 32%

Preferred Location by Age



More than one-third of buyers of all ages would prefer to live in a close-in

suburb. For those who are 55 to 64, rural settings are also attractive.

Younger respondents and those who are renters and live with someone

else are more likely than others to consider buying in an urban area.


Preference to Stay in Similar Area

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Rural Suburban Urban

6% 9%

39% 16%

55%

39%

10%

20% 7%

68%

16% 16%

Preferred Location by Current Location




If someone in a rural area was buying a home in the next six months, 68 percent would stay in a rural area. However, 26 percent would move to a suburban area.

If someone in a suburban area was buying a home in the next six months, 75 percent would buy in a suburban area, but 16 percent would buy in a rural setting.

Among those in a urban area, only 39 percent would buy in an urban area. Forty-six percent would buy in suburban area, the majority of which would prefer closer in suburbs.

Personal Financial Outlook Index


Index ranges between 0 and 100: 0=all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be worse in 6 months; 50 = all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be about the same in 6 months; 100 = all respondents believe their personal situation will be better in 6 months.

58.1

52.9

67.6

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Personal Financial Outlook by Owners or Renters

All U.S. Households Own Rent

58.1

71.3

61.7

53.8

49.7

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Personal Financial Outlook by Age of Household Head

All U.S. Households 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+

Personal Financial Outlook Index


Index ranges between 0 and 100: 0=all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be worse in 6 months; 50 = all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be about the same in 6 months; 100 = all respondents believe their personal situation will be better in 6 months.

58.1

62.9

58.4

55.1

58.7

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

Personal Financial Outlook by Household Income

All U.S. Households Under 30K 30K-50K 50-75K 75K+

58.1

60.8

59.6

53

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Personal Financial Outlook by Area

All U.S. Households Urban Suburban Rural

Methodology

The survey was conducted by an established survey research firm, TechnoMetrica

Market Intelligence. Each month, January through March 2016, a sample of U.S.

households was surveyed via random-digit dial, including cell phones and land

lines. Using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system,

TechnoMetrica conducts interviews from their call center in Ramsey, NJ.

Regional quotas are used, based on four census regions and nine census divisions.

Each month approximately 900 qualified households responded to the survey.

The data compiled for this report and is based on 2,781 completed telephone

interviews. For monthly results, the margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3

percentage points at the 95% confidence level.



The National Association of REALTORS®, “The Voice for Real Estate,”

is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members, including

NAR’s institutes, societies and councils, involved in all aspects of the real estate

industry. NAR membership includes brokers, salespeople, property managers,

appraisers, counselors and others engaged in both residential and commercial

real estate.

The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a

real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS®

and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

Working for America’s property owners, the National Association provides a facility for

professional development, research and exchange of information among its members

and to the public and government for the purpose of preserving the free enterprise

system and the right to own real property.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

RESEARCH DIVISION

The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS® Research Division is to collect

and disseminate timely, accurate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct

economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policymakers

and the media in a professional and accessible manner.

To find out about other products from NAR’s Research Division, visit

www.REALTOR.org/research-and-statistics.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Research Division

500 New Jersey Avenue, NW

Washington, DC 20001

202-383-1000

[email protected]

http://www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics





mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Housing Opportunities and Market Experience Survey