History of Human

8000 BC to 2100 AD

History of HumanPopulation GrowthPopulation Growth

IN THE HISTORY OF OU

Demographically speaking, wherbillion in 1930, we will reachone human lifetime), with still MORE billions2041, and with new U.N. medium

Let us begin by visiting an early sunrise of civilization. If we travel back ten thousand years, wefind ourselves in the year 8,000forebears are experimenting with a new way of life called a

At this time, human population worldwide amounts to perhapshave to be exact about the year or the number.million people inhabited our planet sometime aroundthe size of many of our large cities today.

We now jump forward in time.in the Mediterranean basin in the year onenumbers climb to about 250Europe alone in the modern world.

IN THE HISTORY OF OUR SPECIES

Demographically speaking, where are we now? Beginning with a worldwide population ofin 1930, we will reach seven billion by late in 2011 (FIVE additional billions in less than

with still MORE billions (numbers eight and nine) on, and with new U.N. medium-fertility projections carrying us toward TEN billion by 2100.

What milestones havepoint, this cusp of history?humanitarian, civilizationalmental implications of these enormous andcontinuing numbers?

Along with our enormous increase in numbers, of course, there has been the corresponding physical damage that we inflicton the earth’s BIOSPHERIC MACHINERY

well as our consumptionwide storm of industrial and societal wastes.

In this article we trace thein the demographic journeyhas traveled over the past 10,000s we survey our demogsee that: (a) For most of history,tion was QUITE SMALL compared to today'snumbers; (b) That our numbesharply upward in the 1800s

(c) Most of our population growth has takenplace explosively in the lifetimes of personsnow living.

8000 B.C.

Let us begin by visiting an early sunrise of civilization. If we travel back ten thousand years, wefind ourselves in the year 8,000 B.C. Here and there are scattered small settlements where ourforebears are experimenting with a new way of life called agriculture.

At this time, human population worldwide amounts to perhaps FIVE MILLION

have to be exact about the year or the number. It is enough to understand thatmillion people inhabited our planet sometime around 8000 B.C. This is approximately onethe size of many of our large cities today.

One A.D.

We now jump forward in time. Thousands upon thousands of years go by and we find ourselvesin the Mediterranean basin in the year one A.D. Sometime around this period our worldwide

250 MILLION. This number is smaller than the population of the U.S. orEurope alone in the modern world.

Beginning with a worldwide population of twoadditional billions in less than

on-track to arrive byTEN billion by 2100.

have brought us to thispoint, this cusp of history? And what are the

civilizational, and environ-of these enormous and

enormous increase in num-there has been the corres-

physical damage that we inflict up-BIOSPHERIC MACHINERY, as

our consumption and an utter world-of industrial and societal wastes.

the major milestonesdemographic journey that our species

over the past 10,000 years. Ands we survey our demographic past, we will

For most of history, our popula-compared to today's

ur numbers began to soarin the 1800s, and,

Most of our population growth has takenplace explosively in the lifetimes of persons

Let us begin by visiting an early sunrise of civilization. If we travel back ten thousand years, weHere and there are scattered small settlements where our

FIVE MILLION persons. We don'tIt is enough to understand that approximately five

This is approximately one-third

Thousands upon thousands of years go by and we find ourselvesSometime around this period our worldwide

. This number is smaller than the population of the U.S. or

1650

As we board our time machine for the next section of our journey, we will travel forward to theyear 1650. As the centuries peel away, we see the fall of Rome followed by the Middle Ages withtheir castles and plagues. We also see the splendor of the Renaissance and the great voyages ofMagellan and Columbus. Finally we arrive in 1650, and find ourselves in the times of pirates andSpanish treasure fleets. The world is still largely wilderness, but human population now reachesa new historic high – we now number approximately 500 MILLION. It has been 1650 years sinceour last stop, but in the intervening centuries, our numbers have doubled from 250 million to 500million. (Notice the “doubling time” that characterized our species during this period, when weneeded nearly 1,700 years to double our population.)

1830 – ONE BILLION

Our next leap brings us forward to 1830. This is a striking milestone because, for the first timeever, world population amounts to approximately ONE BILLION human beings. By this time, ofcourse, founders of the United States such as Thomas Jefferson, George Washington, and Benja-min Franklin are all dead, and the United States is waging war against the Seminole Indians ofFlorida. At this pause in our journey, however, we notice that our numbers have once againdoubled. This time, however, our doubling has taken place in less than two hundred years.

(* Interpolated from U.S. Census Bureau and U.N. Population data.)

1930 – TWO BILLION

On this stop we find ourselves in the year 1930 and our numbers rush past still another criticalmilestone. Here we are and the roaring twenties have ended, the stock market has crashed, andfamilies everywhere are battling to make ends meet during the Great Depression. World War IIand the music of Glenn Miller are only a decade away, and baseball games and radio broadcastsare the social threads that tie Americans together. And in this year, we find ourselves in a worldthat is home to approximately TWO BILLION people. Many persons still living today were alive towitness the year when we first reached this unprecedented level.

DRAMATIC CHANGES

We need to make another observation involving 1930: Even though it took all of human historyuntil 1830 for us to reach our first billion, we have just added our SECOND billion in only onehundred years. Something of utmost importance is happening: A species whose population hadtaken millennia to reach one billion has taken only one hundred years to add a second billion.

Something about our journey has changed, and our rate of population growth has begunto accelerate. And this time, our doubling time has fallen to only one hundred years.

What has happened to cause this? Did families suddenly begin to have larger and larger numbersof children? No. The great demographic acceleration that began in the 1830s resulted from: (a)advances in agriculture, (b) the industrial revolution, and most importantly, (c) from advances inmedicine.

In the world of the 1830s, families had large numbers of children but death rates were high. Bythe 1930s, however, families still had large numbers of children, but advances in medicinedramatically lowered the death rate so that more of these children survived. The number of birthsdid not decline much, but death rates fell sharply. Fertility rates did not decline much, but mor-tality rates unexpectedly fell sharply.

1960 —THREE BILLION

By now our demographic journey has brought us all the way forward in time to 1960. John F.Kennedy is elected president of the United States. The cold war between the Soviet Union andthe United States is underway and the two superpowers have just begun a space race. And, withthe help of antibiotics, pesticides, oil, and a post World War II baby boom, our population hassurged to THREE BILLION. This time it took only thirty years, from 1930 to 1960, to add thenewest billion.

1975 – FOUR BILLION

It is significant that the stops on our journey are now becoming more and more frequent. By1975 we find that human numbers continue to rocket upward. This time just fifteen years haveelapsed since our last stop, and yet we have suddenly reached FOUR BILLION. At the time of our1975 milestone, Gerald Ford is the president of the United States and both the Vietnam war andNASA's program of Apollo moon missions have ended.

1987 – FIVE BILLION

By 1987 our population continues to hurtle upward. In terms of sheer numbers, our rates ofgrowth between 1975 and 1987 are unprecedented. Nothing like it has ever been seen in history.This time it has taken only twelve years to add still another billion to our numbers. Many peoplebegin to notice that our roads, schools, and parks are increasingly crowded. Actually, we should-n't be surprised since there are, in 1987, FIVE BILLION of us calling planet earth our home.

On the world stage dramatic changes are underway in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. Andelsewhere, more and more nations must strive frantically to find food and employment for theirrapidly-growing populations. In the poor and developing countries of the world, even leaders whoare competent, honest, well-meaning, and effective find themselves sitting atop a potential pow-der keg. As populations in these nations continue to grow explosively, supplies of food and water,along with infrastructure, social conditions, jobs, and services begin to deteriorate, helping to fuelchaos, dissatisfaction, radicalization, instability, lawlessness, and unrest.

1999 – SIX BILLION

Late in 1999, our journey brings us to our most recent milestone. As we near the year 2000, wereach our SIXTH BILLION – and keep right on growing. For all intents and purposes, just fortyyears have been required (from three billion in 1960 to six billion in 2000) to DOUBLE our num-bers from three billion to six billion.

And we have multiplied our numberssix-fold in less than 200 years

Think for a moment of recent economic bubbles andthen contemplate the trajectory depicted in this graph.It is not a business entity or an economy that may beobliterated when this bubble bursts, but civilization,natural systems, and much of the earth’s BIOSPHERIC

LIFE-SUPPORT MACHINERY.

Notice that we are rocketing upward along the y-axisof this graph. Also notice that essentially all of ourgrowth has taken place just since 1930.

Recent United Nations medium projections estimatethat we will be somewhere near NINE BILLION by2041 and over TEN billion by century’s end.. We ad-dress other exponential graphs with this J-curve shapein other documents in this collection.

The World War II generation who began their lives in a world shared with only two billion otherpersons, now, in their older years, find themselves in a world that is three times as crowded asthat of their youth. And in just 80 years we have grown from two billion to seven billion, addingFIVE additional billions,

and our impacts, and our DAMAGE, andour industrial and societal wastes

to an already crowded planet. And we now seem fully prepared to add still further billions, un-abated, again and again in the decades just ahead. On the near horizon we see looming the arrivalof our seventh, eighth, and ninth billions destined to join us soon – and a tenth, eleventh, andtwelfth billion are possible.

That is where our momentum is taking us, and theyare numbers that we will quite likely come to regret

Asking Natural Systems To Adjust

The three most recent milestones in our journey (between 1975 and 1987, then between 1987 and1999, and then between 1999 and 2011) underscore the way in which our time in history is demo-graphically different than any that mankind has ever known. And they underscore why we aresuch a dangerous force on our planet today when this has never been so in the past.

Even though it took all of human history until 1830 for mankind to reachits first billion, by 1987 we added a like amount in just twelve years.

And in the next twelve years we did it again.

Thus, while nature and earth's natural systems had all of human history until 1830 to adjust to theimpacts of our first billion, we now demand that they make the same adjustments (and more,because we are industrialized) – repeatedly – every twelve to fifteen years.

In May 2011, the United Nations had tofrom their estimates of the past decade. Their newest “mediumabove) show our ninth billion arriving earlier (by 2041), and then proceeding to TEN billion bycentury’s end.

On the other hand, again from the U.N.’s newest numbers, if worldwide fertility rates average½ child per woman HIGHER

self on-track toward 15.8 BILLION

AND THE TWO GRAPHS BELOW SHOW

WHERE WE MAY BE HEADED NEXT

In May 2011, the United Nations had to RAISE its newest world population projections for 2100from their estimates of the past decade. Their newest “medium-fertility” estimates (small boxabove) show our ninth billion arriving earlier (by 2041), and then proceeding to TEN billion by

On the other hand, again from the U.N.’s newest numbers, if worldwide fertility rates averageHIGHER than the U.N.’s “medium-fertility” estimates, humankind will find it

BILLION by the end of this century as shown in the large graph above.

its newest world population projections for 2100fertility” estimates (small box

above) show our ninth billion arriving earlier (by 2041), and then proceeding to TEN billion by

On the other hand, again from the U.N.’s newest numbers, if worldwide fertility rates average justfertility” estimates, humankind will find it-

by the end of this century as shown in the large graph above.

(1) If we have poverty, hunger, chaos, environmental destruction, lawless militias, and failedstates now, what is going to happen as we add more and more and more additional billions in thedecades ahead?

(2) Notice that both graphs above are quintessential J-curves, and that both are, if anything, mostpronounced, extreme, and dangerous J-curves, at that, and

(3) Since earth’s planetary carrying capacity for an industrialized humanity (with everyoneraised to a Western European standard of living) is on the order of two billion or less, both of thegraphs above make it virtually impossible to achieve those high living standards for everyone onearth and, at the same time,

constitute the most single most dangerous threats to human welfare, civilization,AND EARTH’S BIOSPHERIC MACHINERY in the history of our species.

Joel Cohen summarized our current conditions this way: "the size and speed of growth of the hu-man population today have no precedent in all the Earth's history before the last half of thetwentieth century” (Cohen, 1995).

Today's overpopulation and our continuing, explosive, and runaway tsunami of additional growthis one of the defining characteristics of the times in which we live. In the face of this explosion,some writers seem complacent. But for many others, including some of the world’s top scientists,the potential consequences are worrisome enough that many use terms such as "catastrophic,""urgent," and "collision course" when discussing it.

“If current predictions of population growth prove accurate and patterns of humanactivity on the planet remain unchanged, science and technology may not be able toprevent... irreversible degradation of the environment.”

Joint statement, officers of the U.S. National Academyof Sciences and Britain’s Royal Society, 1992

"The earth is finite. Its ability to absorb wastes and destructive effluent is finite. Itsability to provide food and energy is finite. Its ability to provide for growing numbers ofpeople is finite. And we are fast approaching many of the earth's limits."

An urgent warning to humanity (1992)Signed by 1500 top scientists, including99 recipients of the Nobel Prize

“Any population-economy-environment system that has feedback delays and slowphysical responses, that has thresholds and erosion mechanisms, is literally unman-ageable. No matter how brilliant its technologies, no matter how efficient its economy,no matter how wise its decision-makers, it simply can't steer itself away from hazardsunless it tests its limits very, very slowly. If it constantly tries to accelerate, it is bound toovershoot."

Beyond the LimitsMeadows, Meadows, and Randers, 1992

Even though natural systems routinely respond to small changes overlong periods of time, rapid and large-scale changes are typically catastrophic.

Thus, at this hinge-point in history, we find ourselves as participants in a gigantic experiment:How many people can the earth support in the near term and over the long run without sufferingirreparable damage? Unfortunately, younger generations now living may see this questionanswered in their lifetimes.

As citizens we can debate among ourselves important societal questions involving foreign policy,education, economics, politics, and the environment. However, no matter the outcome of our stu-dies, talk-show discussions, and congressional debates,

the functioning of the natural worldcares nothing about all of our talk

Nor about markets, quarterlyearnings or economic theory

Either such natural systems will continue to function or they will not. If natural systems arestressed now, what can we expect as we add three or more additional billions in the half-centuryjust ahead?

A continuation of today’s demographic tidal wave constitutes the greatest singlehumanitarian, biospheric, and civilizational risk that our species has ever undertaken.

Courtesy of The Wecskaop ProjectWhat Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

Used with permission.

Copyright 2011. Randolph Femmer.

This article is entirely free for non-commercial use byscientists, students, and educators anywhere in the world.

Department chairs and librarians:A paperback edition of What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

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