© 2006 Population Reference Bureau A.D. 2000 A.D. 1000 A.D. 1 1000 B.C. 2000 B.C. 3000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 5000 B.C. 6000 B.C. 7000 B.C. 1+ million years 8

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2006 Population Reference Bureau A.D. 2000 A.D. 1000 A.D. 1 1000 B.C. 2000 B.C. 3000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 5000 B.C. 6000 B.C. 7000 B.C. 1+ million years 8 7 6 5 2 1 4 3 Old Stone Age New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age Middle Ages Modern Age Black DeathThe Plague 9 10 11 12 A.D. 3000 A.D. 4000 A.D. 5000 1800 1900 1950 1975 2000 2100 Future Billions Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998). World Population Growth Through History Slide 2 2006 Population Reference Bureau Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. World Population Growth, in Billions Slide 3 2006 Population Reference Bureau Millions Annual Increase in World Population Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Slide 4 2006 Population Reference Bureau Billions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. Growth in More, Less Developed Countries Slide 5 2006 Population Reference Bureau Trends in Population Growth Worldwide Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods Millions Percent increase per year Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. Slide 6 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year. Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the worlds population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year). From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers and grandmothers generations. Slide 7 2006 Population Reference Bureau World Population Clock Natural Increase perWorld More Developed Countries Less Developed Countries Less Developed Countries (less China) Year80,794,2181,234,90779,559,31171,906,587 Day221,3543,383217,971197,004 Minute1542151137 2005 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet. Slide 8 2006 Population Reference Bureau Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet. Projected Population Change, by Country Percent Population Change, 2005-2050 Slide 9 2006 Population Reference Bureau Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition Slide 10 2006 Population Reference Bureau Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population Natural Increase Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide Slide 11 2006 Population Reference Bureau Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline. Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide Slide 12 2006 Population Reference Bureau 10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Slide 13 2006 Population Reference Bureau Number of Women 15 to 49 Billions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. Women of Childbearing Age Slide 14 2006 Population Reference Bureau The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion. Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UNs medium projections. The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline. Notes on Women of Childbearing Age Slide 15 2006 Population Reference Bureau Worldwide Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility Slide 16 2006 Population Reference Bureau The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase to 2050. The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline. Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age. Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility Slide 17 2006 Population Reference Bureau Decline or Growth, 2005-2050 Percent Russia (1.4) Italy (1.3) Trinidad & Tobago (1.6) Armenia (1.3) China (1.6) Country (average number of children per woman) Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet. Population in Countries With Low Fertility Thailand (1.7) Slide 18 2006 Population Reference Bureau All countries shown here have below replacement level childbearingthe level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2050. This disparity is due to the effects of population momentum. In populations with a young age structure, even if fertility declines sharply, the numbers of children will continue to increase for a generation as the cohorts of young people pass through their reproductive years. Consequently, populations will continue to grow for decades even if fertility is instantly reduced to replacement level. On the other hand, some low-fertility countries are subject to negative population momentum. Their populations have aged enough to result in relatively small cohorts under age 30, and therefore even if fertility were to rise to replacement level, population size would decline for sometime. Notes on Population in Countries With Low Fertility Slide 19 2006 Population Reference Bureau Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Slide 20 2006 Population Reference Bureau Patterns of Fertility Decline Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Uganda Kenya Colombia South Korea Slide 21 2006 Population Reference Bureau Reaching Replacement Fertility Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. Slide 22 2006 Population Reference Bureau Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region Slide 23 2006 Population Reference Bureau In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years up ten years from today. Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years. Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa. Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region Slide 24 2006 Population Reference Bureau Urban Population Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004. Trends in Urbanization, by Region Slide 25 2006 Population Reference Bureau Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent. By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the worlds population will be living in urban areas. Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region Slide 26 2006 Population Reference Bureau Millions Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004. 1950 2000 2015 Largest Cities, Worldwide Slide 27 2006 Population Reference Bureau The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly, and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1950 the three largest cities were in more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three. In 1950, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 12 million. By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with triple this population size: 36 million. Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide Slide 28 2006 Population Reference Bureau Urbanization in Central America Population Living in Urban Areas Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004. Slide 29 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Urbanization in Central America Central American countries are urbanizing rapidly, at a pace similar to that of their South American neighbors 20 years earlier. Sixty percent or more of the population in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua