© 2006 Population Reference Bureau A.D. 2000 A.D. 1000 A.D. 1 1000 B.C. 2000 B.C. 3000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 5000 B.C. 6000 B.C. 7000 B.C. 1+ million years 8

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death —The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Billions

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

World Population Growth Through History


Ninth

Eighth

Seventh

Sixth

Fifth

Fourth

Third

Second

First Billion

Number of years to add each billion (year)

All of Human History (1800)

130 (1930)

30 (1960)

15 (1975)

12 (1987)

12 (1999)

14 (2013)

14 (2027)

21 (2048)

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

World Population Growth, in Billions


Millions

Annual Increase in World Population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2005

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.


Billions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Growth in More, Less Developed Countries


Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods

80

8783

7976 76 75

72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Net population added per year Annual population growth rate

Mill

ions

Per

cen

t in

crea

se p

er y

ear



Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

• This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year.

• Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year).

• From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.


World Population Clock

Natural Increase per World

More Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries (less China)

Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587

Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004

Minute 154 2 151 137

2005

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.



Projected Population Change, by Country

Percent Population Change, 2005-2050


Time

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition


Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increase


Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide


• Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. • Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. • Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline.

Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide


1.17

1.12

0.94

0.84

1.22

1.24

1.24

1.23

1.23

1.20

Belarus

Bulgaria

Republic of Moldova

Republic of Korea

Slovenia

Slovakia

Czech Republic

Ukraine

China, Hong Kong Special AdministrativeRegion

China, Macao Special Administrative Region

10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide

Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005



Number of Women 15 to 49Billions

0.62

0.86

1.32

1.76

1.982.06

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050


Women of Childbearing Age


• The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion.• Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UN’s medium projections.• The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline.

Notes on Women of Childbearing Age


Worldwide

0.6

0.9

1.82.0 2.0

1.3

0

1

2

3

1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050

Bill

ion

s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ch

ildre

n p

er

wo

man

Women 15 to 49 Average number of children per woman


Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility


• The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase to 2050.• The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline.• Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age.

Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility


Decline or Growth, 2005-2050Percent

8

10

13

-23

-11

-6

Russia (1.4)

Italy (1.3)

Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)

Armenia (1.3)

China (1.6)

Country (average number of children per woman)


Population in Countries With Low Fertility

Thailand (1.7)


• All countries shown here have below “replacement level” childbearing—the level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2050.• This disparity is due to the effects of population momentum. In populations with a young age structure, even if fertility declines sharply, the numbers of children will continue to increase for a generation as the cohorts of young people pass through their reproductive years. Consequently, populations will continue to grow for decades even if fertility is instantly reduced to replacement level. On the other hand, some low-fertility countries are subject to negative population momentum. Their populations have aged enough to result in relatively small cohorts under age 30, and therefore even if fertility were to rise to replacement level, population size would decline for sometime.

Notes on Population in Countries With Low Fertility


Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction

Average number of children per woman

5.75.25.4

6.46.4

8.5

5.3

3.3

6.2

3.1

2.4 2.1

4.3

2.5

Egypt India Indonesia Iran Pakistan Turkey Yemen

1970-1975 2000-2005



Patterns of Fertility Decline


0

2

4

6

8

10

1950–1955 1960–1965 1970–1975 1980–1985 1990–1995 2000–2005


Uganda

Kenya

Colombia

South Korea


Reaching Replacement Fertility


5.6

7.0

5.4

6.4

5.7

7.3

1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0

Azerbaijan Chile Iran Mauritius Thailand Tunisia

1960-1965 2000-2005



Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years

49

6772

76

6565

7780 82

75

Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

More DevelopedRegions

World

2000-2005 2045-2050


Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region


• In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years — up ten years from today. • Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years. • Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.

Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region


Urban PopulationPercent

29

15 17

53

47

37 37

76

55

42

74

85

54

61

82

World Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

MoreDeveloped

Regions

1950 2000 2030

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

Trends in Urbanization, by Region


• Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent. • By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas.

Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region


Millions


1950 2000 2015

Largest Cities, Worldwide

811 12

17 18

34

2123

36

London Tokyo New York

Sao Paulo

MexicoCity

Tokyo Delhi Mumbai(Bombay)

Tokyo


• The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly, and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1950 the three largest cities were in more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three. • In 1950, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 12 million. By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with triple this population size: 36 million.

Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide


Urbanization in Central America

Population Living in Urban AreasPercent

39 3936

29

47 48

6462

49 49

60 60

Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama

1970 2010



Notes on Urbanization in Central America

• Central American countries are urbanizing rapidly, at a pace similar to that of their South American neighbors 20 years earlier. Sixty percent or more of the population in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Panama is projected to be urban by 2010; the projection for Central America as a whole is 71 percent.

• South America has nearly the highest rate of urbanization of any world region, projected to achieve 84 percent by 2010 (virtually tied with Northern Europe).


Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions

300 100 100 300300 200 100 0 100 200 300

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Male Female Male Female

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

5-90-4

Age


Age Distribution of the World’s Population


• Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries.• Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15.• Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents. • Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades.

Notes on Age Distribution of the World’s Population


Trends in Aging, by World Region

Population Ages 65 and OlderPercent

7

3

6 6

14

11

4

10 10

21

World Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

More DevelopedRegions

2000 2025



Notes on Trends in Aging, by World Region

• By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and older.

• By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be over age 65.

• Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in 2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years: from about 216 million to about 480 million older people.


635450

50 4637

All Ages Ages 60+ Ages 80+

Women Men

Women and Aging

Projected World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025Percent

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.


Notes on Women and Aging

• The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old people (80 and older).


Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000-2004Percent

77

53

89

73

55

87

70

9186

77

World Sub-SaharanAfrica

Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

Asia Arab States

Female Male

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics: accessed online at www.uis.unesco.org/TEMPLATE/html/Exceltables/education/Literacy_Regional_April2006.xls on May 21, 2006.

Adult Literacy, by Region


• Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write. • However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Women’s literacy rates in particular vary significantly by region: from 53 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, to 73 percent in Asia, to 89 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean.• Overall, more men than women are literate. This is especially striking in the Arab states, where more than three-fourths of men but about half of all women are literate.

Notes on Adult Literacy, by Region


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean

Note: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to be dependents.Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Ratio of Workers to Dependents, by Region


0.1

0.2

0.3

1.2

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.3

4.4

5.9

Mali

Cambodia

Bangladesh

Bolivia

Mexico

China

Jordan

U.S.

Greece

Cuba

1997-2004*Physicians per 1,000 people

Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries

* Data are for the most recent year available for each country.Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.


Notes on Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries

• Population growth can affect a country’s capacity to address the health needs of its people through trained personnel and accessible health facilities.• Access to health services varies greatly from country to country. In Greece, for example, there are 4.4 doctors for every 1,000 people. • This is over 20 times higher than in Cambodia, which has only 0.2 doctors for every 1,000 people.

Documents

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau A.D. 2000 A.D. 1000 A.D. 1 1000 B.C. 2000 B.C. 3000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 5000 B.C. 6000 B.C. 7000 B.C. 1+ million years 8