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Highlights from Recent EPRI Climate-Related Work. CA Council on Science & Technology October 2006 Bryan Hannegan Director, Environment. About EPRI. EPRI is an independent non-profit collaborative research and development organization Funded by 1000 energy companies in 40 countries - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Highlights from Recent EPRI Climate-Related Work
CA Council on Science & TechnologyOctober 2006
Bryan HanneganDirector, Environment
2© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
About EPRI
• EPRI is an independent non-profit collaborative research and development organization
– Funded by 1000 energy companies in 40 countries
– Includes IOUs, munis, co-ops
– Also includes gov’t organizations that fund public benefit R&D (e.g. CEC)
• Climate research is a priority for EPRI
– Inform climate policy discussions
– Reduce costs through technology R&D
– Support utility investment decisions
3© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Topics for Today
• Generation Options in a Carbon Constrained World
• Impacts of CO2 Prices on Existing & New Generation
• Advancing Energy Efficiency
• Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Potential
• Analysis of CA Climate Legislation
Generation Options in a Carbon Constrained World
5© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Generation Options Framework
• Levelized cost of electricity
– Standard EPRI methodology
– Constant 2006 $ costs
– Lines are mean values from a range of studies
• Two key uncertainties
– Future “cost” of CO2
– Future price of natural gas
• Two timeframes
– 2010-2015 time-period
– 2020-2025 time-period
6© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Comparative Costs in 2010-2015
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
Wind@29% CF
Nuclear
PC
IGCC
Biomass
NGCC@$6
7© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Take-Aways for 2010-2015 Time Period
• Nuclear is clearly lowest-cost, but unlikely before 2015 due to significant licensing & construction time.
• Next most economic are fossil-fueled technologies (NGCC, PC, and IGCC) w/o CO2 capture and storage– Will comprise dispatchable base-load generation prior to 2015
– Natural gas will re-emerge only if prices ~$4/MMBtu
• New advanced coal plants with CO2 capture and storage will probably not occur until after 2015.
• Carbon prices must be > $30/tCO2 for wind, biomass
8© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
• 2 x 750 MW Advanced PC Plant……………….2009
• 600 MW Base Load IGCC Plant…………..……2010
• First of TXU’s 11 New Plants Online (PC).…....2010
• Carson Project Pet Coke Gasification…….……2011
• FutureGen “Living Laboratory” Operating….….2013
• Advanced Coal with Capture Deployment....2018+
201820102009 20132006
Long Technology Development Cycle…With Uncertainty
2011
Advanced Coal Technology Time Line
9© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
What’s Possible: 2020-2025 Horizon
Technology Advances in Efficiency
Cost Reductions through Design Improvements
CO2 Capture and Storage - Development and Deployment
Biomass Gasification Technology
Energy Storage Capability
10© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Comparative Costs in 2020-2025
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
Nuclear
Wind
Biomass
NGCC@$6
An Extraordinary Opportunityto Develop a Low-Carbon Portfolio
IGCC w/capPC w/cap
Impact of CO2 Prices on Existing and New Generation
12© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
CO2 Value Impacts Market Price and Generator Net Revenue for Each Hour of Dispatch
CO2 @ $0
$50
$25
$5$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Nuclear Coal Natural Gas
Generation
Dis
pa
tch
Pri
ce
Market Price
Ne
t R
ev
en
ue
Net
Rev
enu
e
Sets Price
CO2 @ $20
$50
$25
$5
CO2Cost
CO2Cost
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Nuclear Coal Natural Gas
Generation
Dis
pa
tch
Pri
ce
Market Price
Ne
t R
ev
en
ue
Net
R
even
ue
Sets Price
13© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Position in Stack Determines Each Generator’s Net Revenue for the Year – $/kW-year
Net Revenue – CO2 @ $0 ($/ton) & Gas @ $8.24 ($/MMBtu)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000
Generation Stack Position
Ne
t R
ev
e n
ue
($
/kW
)
Nuc-Hydro GenCoalNat Gas
Oil GenOther
14© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Coal Land Represented by ECAR + MAIN
15© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Coal Land – CO2 @ $0/ton
Net Revenue – CO2 @ $0 ($/ton) & Gas @ $8.24 ($/MMBtu)
IGCCUSC PC
IGCC w CCSUSC PC w CCS
NGCC
Nuclear
Coal/9.8Coal/9.6
Coal/12.3
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Regional Supply (MW)
Ne
t R
ev
en
ue
($
/kW
)
IGCC/8.6USC PC/8.7IGCC w CCS/11.3USC PC w CCS/11.4NGCC/7Nuclear/11.1Coal/9.8Coal/9.6Coal/12.3Net Rev ($/kW-derated)
16© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Coal Land – CO2 @ $50/ton
Net Revenue – CO2 @ $50 ($/ton) & Gas @ $8.24 ($/MMBtu)
IGCCUSC PC
IGCC w CCSUSC PC w CCS
NGCC
Nuclear
Coal/9.8Coal/9.6
Coal/12.3
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Regional Supply (MW)
Ne
t R
ev
en
ue
($
/kW
)
IGCC/8.6USC PC/8.7IGCC w CCS/11.3USC PC w CCS/11.4NGCC/7Nuclear/11.1Coal/9.8Coal/9.6Coal/12.3Net Rev ($/kW-derated)
17© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Net Revenues for Existing Units
ECAR-MAIN Generator Net Revenue as a Function of CO2 Value – Gas @ $8.24 ($/MMBtu)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60
CO2 Value ($/ton)
Ne
t R
ev
en
ue
s (
$/k
W-y
ea
r)
Nuc/11.1Coal/9.8Coal/9.6Coal/12.3
18© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Net Revenues for Advanced Generation Units
ECAR-MAIN Generator Net Revenue as a Function of CO2 Value – Gas @ $8.24 ($/MMBtu)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60
CO2 Value ($/ton)
Net
Rev
enu
es (
$/kW
-yea
r)
IGCC/8.6
USC PC/8.7
IGCC w CCS/11.3
USC PC w CCS/11.4
NGCC/7
19© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Key Insights
1. Higher production costs from CO2 value does not imply lower net revenues for some units due to feedback loop from plant costs to market prices
2. Risk exposure to coal generation highly dependent on
• Regional generation mix
• Gas price level
3. Older coal plants more exposed to CO2 risk than newer plants, a factor for environmental retrofit decisions
Advancing Energy Efficiency
21© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Strategies for Efficient Use of Electricity
Three Interrelated Strategies
• Energy Efficiency (EE)
• Demand Response (DR)
• Dynamic Systems (DS)
Implemented through anElectricity Efficiency Infrastructure
that allows “prices to devices”
EE
DSDR
22© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Dynamic Systems: A Critical Need
EfficientBuildingSystems
UtilityCommunications
DynamicSystemsControl
DataManagement
DistributionOperations
DistributedGeneration& Storage
Plug-In Hybrids
SmartEnd-UseDevices
ControlInterface
AdvancedMetering
Consumer Portal& Building EMS
Internet Renewables
PV
23© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Creating an Energy Efficiency Initiative
• Established Electricity Efficiency Technology Ad-Hoc Committee of EPRI Board
• Conducting Regional Workshops to obtain additional input from utilities and other stakeholders
– Oct 31 – Southern California (Hosted by Lynda Ziegler of SCE; contact Ellen Petrill [email protected] for details)
• Identify and finalize new elements of EPRI Electricity Efficiency Technology Initiative by end of year
• Coordinate with the Edison Electric Institute and other industry organizations
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Potential
25© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Plug-In Hybrid Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Fullsize SUV
Midsize SUV
Midsize Sedan
Compact Sedan
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Fue
l Cyc
le C
O2
Em
issi
ons
(g
mi-1
)
Conventional Vehicle Conventional Power Assist Hybrid
Plug-in Hybrid, 20 mile EV range Plug-in Hybrid, 60 mile EV range
26© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Source: EPRI
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
VehicleTailpipe
UpstreamGasoline
UpstreamElectricity
Conventional Midsize Sedan Hybrid (HEV 0) Midsize Sedan
New Coal
National Average Mid-Year’05
Southern Illinois & Nearby States Today CCNG California Off-Peak Today & US in 2050
California 24-hour average today
California in 2050
100% Wind, Solar, HydroNuclear, Geothermal
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
VehicleTailpipe
UpstreamGasoline
UpstreamElectricity
Conventional Midsize Sedan Hybrid (HEV 0) Midsize Sedan
New Coal
National Average Mid-Year’05
Southern Illinois & Nearby States Today CCNG California Off-Peak Today & US in 2050
California 24-hour average today
California in 2050
100% Wind, Solar, HydroNuclear, Geothermal
CO2 Offsets Increase with Cleaner Electricity
Electricity CO2 emissions in g CO2 kWh-`
Tota
l vehic
le C
O2 e
mis
sions
in g
CO
2 m
i-1
27© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Progress
•EPRI/SCE Advanced Battery Test Program•EPRI/DOE Product Development•Johnson Control/Saft Alignment•Technology Innovation - Nanotechnololgy
•Automotive Analysis in Process•Argonne National Lab
•Environmental Value Analysis•Environmental Base Program
•PHEV Sprinter Data Collection•Eaton/EPRI Trouble Truck
Batteries
Auto
Environment
Data
28© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
HEV Technology Timeline
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
HEV Market Introduction
HEV Sales Accelerate
EPRI PHEV Sprinter with
DaimlerChrysler
Li Ion Batteries Enter HEV Market
PHEV Sales Accelerate
Widespread PHEV Adoption
EPRI PHEV Utility Trouble Truck with
Eaton/FordInitial EPRI PHEV Study
DOE Begins PHEV
Program
EPRI/Utility PHEV Fleet
Demonstrations
Costs Decrease Most
OEMs Have PHEV in Lineup
30-mile EV range
Customer Market Pull:Increased EV Range
Greater EV Performance
40-mile EV Range
Plug-in Night Time Charge 24 Hr. Grid Access Auto-Docking
Time of Use Charge & Automatic Billing Infrastructure
First PHEVs: 7 to 20-mile EV
Range Li Ion Battery
Initial PHEV Market Intro
Overview of California Climate Policy Activity
30© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
California Climate Policy Activity
Government policy actions
• Governor's Executive Order sets GHG mitigation targets
• State Senate and Governor announce deal for comprehensive cap on GHG emissions (AB 32)
• New long term (> 5 years) base-load requires performance standard equal to a CCGT (SB 1368)
• 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard by 2020 (PUC)
EPRI California climate policy research
• Analysis of CA GHG mitigation targets
• Analysis of 3 existing economic studies
31© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
California GHG Legislation—Key Points
Role of the Air Resources Board
• Rules, procedures, regulations, etc. unclear at present
• “achieve maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective GHG reductions.”
• Authorizes “market-based compliance mechanism(s)”
• Mandatory reporting of GHG emission sources
Timing
• 6/30/2007 ARB to publish list of “early actions…”
• By 1/1/2011 ARB shall adopt regulations
• Become effective 1/1/2012
32© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
California GHG Legislation—Key Points
Economic impact unclear at present• State has yet to work out details of implementation • Supporters say it won’t harm business
Provision for “safety valve” • Governor has authority to delay emission-cap by up to
one year in an emergency
New Energy Investments Face Uncertainty• Any project will face undefined restrictions/costs as
reductions, measures and limits not known until 2011• Financing these projects may be very difficult
33© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EPRI Examining California GHG Policies
Independent analysis of economic costs and benefits
• Funded by Southern California Edison
• Project duration-- January 2006--June 2007
• EPRI has provided status reports to SCE and other interested organizations
• Project results will be provided to the public
• Advisory Committee provides peer-review
• Report will be released November 2006
34© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EPRI Evaluation of Previous Economic Studies
Previous research indicated “benefits” for economy
• Economic analysis by the Climate Action Team
• Independent economic analysis by Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)
• Third report by UC Berkeley Climate Change Center
All three studies based on “bottom-up” analysis of many separate policy measures
• “Bottom-up” analyses displays systematic optimistic bias about the economic costs
• Undergoing peer-review and should be widely available in near future
35© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
California climate activities important for rest of country• May lead to other state/regional/national proposals• “Getting rules right” in California will be helpful for
subsequent proposals in other states or nationally
Remember deregulation …• Issues are complex; unintended consequences costly• Any proposed government actions (ARB) should be
carefully examined prior to implementation:- What are the impacts on electric system? economy?- How do you constrain electricity imports?- Can technology meet the pace of regulations?
Closing Thoughts
36© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Carbon Prices DO Affect Electricity Rates!