Headline Verdana Bold - London Economic Development ... · Weighted base 1: Respondents who own or have access to a smartphone (1,469) Source: Canada edition, Deloitte Global Mobile

Headline Verdana Bold TMT Predictions 2017 Think about the future

May 2017

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TMT Predictions was first published in 2001


TMT Predictions report card

Rating Prediction

Women in IT jobs: It is about education, but it is also about more than just education

Trailing millennials are the pro-PC, not the post-PC, generation

Touch commerce: the mobile online checkout gets an express lane

Graphene: research now, reap next decade

Cognitive technologies enhance enterprise software

Report card

Legend Didn’t come true as we predicted

Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far

Came true exactly as much as we predicted

Technology


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2010 2014 2015

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Percentage of US IT workers who are female



Rating Prediction

Virtual reality: a billion dollar niche

Mobile games: leading, but less lucrative

Mobile ad-blockers: saved by the app?

The award for stable box office revenues in the face of digital media goes to…

US TV: erosion, not implosion

European football scores $30 billion

eSports: bigger and smaller than you think

Report card




Media





Rating Prediction

The dawn of the Gigabit Internet age: every bit counts

Used smartphones: the $17 billion market you may never have heard of

The rise of the data exclusive

VoLTE/VoWiFi: capacity, reach and capability

Photo sharing: trillions and rising

Report card




Telecommunications


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total prediction accuracy



Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2016

Source: Gartner © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Innovation trigger

Peak of inflated expectations

Trough of disillusionment

Slope of enlightenment

Plateau of productivity

Plateau will be reached in:

Less than 2 years

2 to 5 years

5 to 10 years

More than 10 years

Expectations

Time

Smart Dust

4D Printing

General-Purpose Machine Intelligence

802.11ax

Context Brokering

Neuromorphic Hardware

Data Broker PaaS (dbrPaas)

Quantum Computing

Human Augmentation

Personal Analytics

Smart Workspace

Volumetric Displays

Conversational User Interfaces

Brain-Computer Interface

Virtual Personal Assistants

Smart Data Discovery

Affective Computing

Commercial UAVs (Drones)

IoT Platform

Gesture Control Devices

Micro Data Centres Smart Robots

Blockchain

Connected Home

Cognitive Expert Advisors

Machine Learning

Software-Defined Security

Autonomous Vehicles

Nanotube Electronics

Software-Defined Anything (SDx)

Natural-language Question Answering

Enterprise Taxonomy and Ontology Management

Augmented Reality

Virtual Reality

As of July 2016




TMT Predictions 2017 Come. Dare to visit the future.



Launched 2005

Up to

3 Mbps

Launched 2009

Up to

21 Mbps

Launched 2010

Up to

42 Mbps

Launched 2011

Up to

75 Mbps

Launched 2012

Up to

150 Mbps

Launched 2015

Up to

260 Mbps

Launched August 2015

Up to

335 Mbps

3G 4G 4G LTE LTE LTE LTE ADVANCED ADVANCED


Coverage shown is approximate and actual coverage may vary. Theoretical peak speeds may vary by region. Reception and expected speeds may vary due to topography, environmental conditions, device type and other factors.

Select coverage type

4G LTE 4G HSPA+ Extended (EXT)

LTE Advanced (LTE-A)

LTE

HSPA+ Extended (EXT)


Progress LTE capabilities towards 5G

In parallel driving 4G and 5G to their fullest potential

Advanced MIMO Unlicensed spectrum eLAA 256QAM

FelCIC Internet of Things Enhanced CA

FDD-TDD CA Massive/FD-MIMO Carrier aggregation

SON+ CoMP Device-to-device

Dual connectivity Low Latency

Shared Broadcast V2X

2015 2020+




Indoor Location Usage Intent

THE GREAT INDOORS

Base: Total (n=1,000) Q4. How likely would you be to use indoor location technology to find and/or direct you to the following?

22%

14%

13%

11%

8%

8%

29%

26%

22%

24%

16%

14%

26%

29%

28%

30%

31%

27%

12%

17%

19%

19%

25%

26%

12%

14%

17%

16%

21%

25%

Vehicle in a parking lot

Store in a mall or shopping centre

Product or location in a grocery store

Product or location in a retail store

Seat at a movie, concert or sporting event

Seat on an airplane or train

Definitely would use Probably would use May or may not use

Probably would not use Definitely would not use

Top-2 Box

51%

40%

35%

35%

24%

22%



Canadian ownership of phones with fingerprint readers, usage of fingerprint readers

Question. Does your mobile phone

have a fingerprint reader?

Question. Which, if any, of the methods listed below have you

used to identify yourself when unlocking your phone, authorizing mobile payments or other transactions? (fingerprint reader)

30%

58%

12%

24%

76%

Source: Canada edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, May–Jun 2016 Weighted base 1: Respondents who own or have access to a smartphone (1,469) Weighted base 2: All people who say that their phone has a fingerprint reader (441)

Yes, my mobile phone has a fingerprint reader

No, my mobile phone does not have a fingerprint reader

I don’t know

Do not use fingerprint reader

Use fingerprint reader


Three authentication factors

Know

Are

Have









Global tablet shipments

(in millions of units)

Source: IDC worldwide quarterly tablet tracker.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q2'10

Q3'10

Q4'10

Q1'11

Q2'11

Q3'11

Q4'11

Q1'12

Q2'12

Q3'12

Q4'12

Q1'13

Q2'13

Q3'13

Q4'13

Q1'14

Q2'14

Q3'14

Q4'14

Q1'15

Q2'15

Q3'15

Q4'15

Q1'16

Q2'16

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Quarterly shipments Rolling 4Q total



Which, if any, is your preferred device for each of the following activities?

Canada Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Watch live TV TV TV TV TV TV TV TV TV

Watch TV programs via catch-up services TV TV TV Laptop TV TV TV TV

Stream films and/or TV series TV TV Laptop Laptop TV TV TV TV

Watch short videos Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop

Video calls Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop

Online search Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop

Browse shopping websites Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop

Make online purchases Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop Laptop

Check bank balances Laptop Laptop Laptop Phone Laptop Laptop Laptop Desktop

Read the news Laptop Laptop Laptop Phone Phone Phone Laptop Laptop

Check social networks Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Laptop Laptop

Play games Phone Desktop Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Laptop

Record videos Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone

Take photos Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone

Voice calls using the Internet Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone

TV (21/120) 17.5%

Laptop (58/120) 47.5%

Phone (40/120) 33.3%

Desktop (2/120) 1.6%

Tablet (0/120) 0.0%

TV

Laptop

Phone

Desktop


Financial transactions and channel preference: 18-35 year olds

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Check balance Reviewmonthly

statements

Transferfunds

between myaccounts

Transferfunds to

someoneelse/payment

Internationaltransfer

Buy/sellstocks

Line ofcredit/small

loan

Carloan/mortage

Mobile

Computer

Phone

Physical



Tablet and smartphone ownership, by age of child

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Age 3 Age 4 Age 5 Age 6 Age 7 Age 8 Age 9 Age 10 Age 11 Age 12 Age 13 Age 14 Age 15

Smartphone

Tablet

10%

21%

24%

38%

34% 36%

48%

51% 57%

48%

43%

45%

0% 0% 0% 0%

7% 11%

18%

41%

59% 63%

76%

84%

93%

62%

2016


Device children would miss the most, by individual age

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Age 5 Age 6 Age 7 Age 8 Age 9 Age 10 Age 11 Age 12 Age 13 Age 14 Age 15

Mobile phone

Tablet

TV set

16%

29%

22%

25% 15%

25%

17%

7%

4% 4% 3% 4% 13%

21%

26%

35%

46%

51%

2016

65%

7%

20%

10% 8%

53%

44%

37%

47%

31%

28%

12%

17% 17% 15%





0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016

Time Shifted

Live

US daily traditional TV viewing by those 18+ in Q3

Source: Nielsen


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014 2015 2016

Time shifted


Source: Nielsen


Source: Nielsen Total Audience Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2016, 2015, Nielsen Cross Platform Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

-

50

100

150

200

250

US TV viewing by 18-24 year olds 2010-2016

Daily live + time shifted minutes of TV Annual change - right hand axis


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2014 2015 2016 2015 65+ 2016 65+

Time Shifted

Live

(and 65+)


Source: Nielsen

2016 65+



Percent of usage contributed by the top 20 percent of users

Source: Nielsen Total Audience Report: Q1 2016.

Top 20%

Bottom 80%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Composite

AM/FMradio

TV(including

DVR)

TV-connecteddevices

Interneton a PC

Streamon a PC

Smartphonevideo

48% 52% 71% 76% 87% 83%

TMT Predictions 2017 48

US:18-34 year olds spend 4.2x more time watching TV than using Facebook on a daily basis

147

35

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

TV Facebook

U.S. 18-34 age group: average time spent (minutes/day)

Source: Nielsen’s Total audience report Q4’15; Comscore’s Cross Platform Future in Focus 2016 U.S. report



#adlergic




IT spending market for data centres, software and IT services

2016 (100% = $1,400 billion)

($ billions)

$359bn

$1,041bn

IT-as-a-Service Traditional

Source: Deloitte Global analysis

$533bn

$977bn

2018 (100% = $1,510 billion)


2% 5%

11%

18%

31%

37%

20%

31%

37%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Current Year Next 2-3 years

% o

f resp

on

den

ts

>75% 51-75% 26-50% 10-25% <10%

Majority organizations have adopted IT-as-a-Service offerings and this adoption rate and the share IT spend on FC offerings will continue to rise in the next 2 – 3 years

Annual enterprise technology spend on

Flexible Consumption Offerings





Risk of car driver fatality calculated using logistic regression

Source: Transport Research Laboratory (extracted from the OTS and CCIS dataset), Department for Transport, 2010.

Car drivers in frontal impacts (all ages, belted, impacts with another car, n=620)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Risk of car driver fatality

Delta - v ( MPH)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80


AUTONOMOUS EMERGENCY BRAKING

The Discovery Sport’s advanced Autonomous Emergency Braking system detects when a collision is imminent and intervenes by braking to avoid or mitigate the impact.

FULL BRAKING

ABOVE & BEYOND


Safety is the key… The most useful technologies across six countries are safety related

Most preferred Moderately preferred Least preferred

Sample size – [US: N= 1,722, Germany: N= 1,672, Japan: N= 1,615, South Korea: N= 1,723, China: N= 1,727, India: N= 1,724]

Description Category US Germany Japan South Korea China India

Recognizes presence of objects on road and avoids collision Safety 52% 53% 62% 52% 54% 45%

Automatically blocks driver from dangerous driving situations Safety 39% 52% 61% 54% 52% 43%

Informs driver of dangerous driving situations Safety 39% 48% 38% 46% 47% 38%

Diagnoses vehicle health and sends maintenance notifications Connected 34% 19% 21% 30% 31% 30%

Automatically takes steps in medical emergency or accident Safety 32% 36% 41% 31% 39% 39%

Enables remote shutdown of vehicle in case of theft Safety 29% 22% 28% 18% 25% 27%

Enables vehicles to communicate with each other and road infrastructure Connected 27% 27% 33% 26% 30% 25%

Helps enhance fuel efficiency (e.g., cylinder deactivation, smaller-sized engines) Fuel efficiency 27% 32% 30% 25% 22% 26%

Prevents hacking into the car making it safe and secure Safety 24% 18% 12% 17% 12% 20%

Enables use of advanced lightweight materials to make vehicles lighter and safer Fuel efficiency 23% 25% 18% 25% 28% 22%

Prevents theft by restricting unauthorized access Safety 22% 27% 16% 13% 15% 24%

Enables interactive display to provide the vehicle’s operational information Cockpit 21% 17% 15% 17% 13% 18%

Enables usage of alternative fuels Fuel efficiency 21% 31% 26% 28% 23% 28%

Automates tasks which increase passenger comfort and convenience Connected 21% 25% 24% 27% 23% 19%

Enables hands-free ability to control the audio, entertainment and climate Cockpit 20% 11% 9% 7% 8% 13%

Lowers the impact on the environment (e.g., lower emissions, conserves energy) Fuel efficiency 19% 27% 16% 20% 16% 24%

Monitors the physical health of the driver Safety 18% 28% 19% 18% 22% 19%

Enables high speed, long distance, highway ‘auto-pilot’ mode Full/partial self-drive 17% 17% 23% 28% 18% 18%

Enables remote/automatic software updates of the vehicle Connected 15% 8% 11% 14% 8% 13%

Coaches the driver to drive safely and potentially save him money Safety 14% 19% 18% 18% 24% 20%

Enables self-driving (e.g., full self-driving cars) Full/partial self-drive 14% 13% 32% 28% 18% 15%

Allows use of smartphone applications through the vehicle dashboard Connected 14% 7% 4% 7% 9% 11%

Assists in locating, reserving, and navigating to a parking space Service enabler 13% 16% 9% 10% 17% 14%

Makes available adjustable settings to enhance vehicle performance Fuel efficiency 12% 10% 14% 18% 12% 17%

Enables the use of self-healing paint to repair minor scratches Miscellaneous 12% 10% 12% 9% 11% 7%

Provides passengers with customized entertainment while driving Cockpit 11% 5% 5% 7% 8% 10%

Automatically pays for toll roads, parking, and priority/commuter lane fees Service enabler 11% 8% 12% 8% 13% 10%

Provides indicators when the vehicle is near places of interest Service enabler 11% 8% 6% 6% 12% 13%

Empowers customer with the ability to design and personalize vehicles Miscellaneous 10% 7% 7% 15% 9% 11%

Allows the driver to control automated systems in his home Service enabler 10% 7% 7% 13% 12% 10%

Enables ultra-small, low-speed, self-driving vehicles for urban environments Full/partial self-drive 9% 10% 14% 13% 15% 12%

Helps manage daily activities Connected 8% 6% 9% 4% 4% 9%

Findings from secondary research indicate that consumers in US, Germany, and China ranked “safety-related technologies” the highest*

*What drivers want

http://www.gfk.com/fileadmin/user_upload/downloads/Landing_Pages_2015/GfK-Connected-Car-Preview-Report.pdf

TMT Predictions 2017 61


Q. How many times would you estimate you look at your phone in a day?

How you doing? 18-24 year olds checking their phones

0%

100%

86%

73%

48%

23%

8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Never Over 1 time Over 10 times Over 25 times Over 50 times Over 100 times Over 200 times

Source: Canada edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, May - Jun 2016 Base: All smartphone owners: 1,671

Assuming 16 waking hours per day, this means about half of Canadian 18-24 year olds check their phone every 20 minutes.

Assuming 16 waking hours per day, this means one in twelve check their phone every 5 minutes… or less.


58%

46%

39%

26%

15% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Q. Do you check your phone in the middle of the night?

I find the screen glow lulls me back to sleep

Source: Canada edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, May - Jun 2016 Base: All smartphone owners: 1,671


Q. How often, if at all, do you have disagreements with each of the following people because they think that you use your mobile phone too much?

4% 5% 5%

5%

11%

70%

Several times a week

Once a week

Once a fortnight

Once a month

Less often than once a month

Never

With your partner

Source: Canada edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, May - Jun 2016 Base: All phone owners 1,671

monthly

Q. How often, if at all, do you have disagreements with each of the following people because they think that you use your mobile phone too much? (Not “never”)

With your partner

But the picture appears less rosy for younger demographics…

25-34

18-24

35-44

45-54

65+

55-64

35%

30%

18%

13%

9%

37%


-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2013 2014 2015 2016*

NSC Motor Vehicle Fatality Estimates


Doctor, what do these symptoms mean?

1

2

3

4

My smartphone use is interfering with my life

My smartphone use is interfering with my sleep

My smartphone use is interfering with my love life

My smartphone use is actually putting my life at risk



TMT Predictions tailored events

Duncan Stewart can deliver a presentation for your office/industry.

• Email Duncan: [email protected]

• Follow him on Twitter: @dunstewart

• Connect on LinkedIn

• Subscribe to him on Facebook

• Read his blog: dunstewart.wordpress.com

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Headline Verdana Bold - London Economic Development ... · Weighted base 1: Respondents who own or have access to a smartphone (1,469) Source: Canada edition, Deloitte Global Mobile