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HGAP Tellurian Midstream Group | April 2019 Haynesville Global Access Pipeline

Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

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Page 1: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

HGAP

Tellurian Midstream Group | April 2019

Haynesville Global Access Pipeline

Page 2: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

SW Louisiana: core of US gas demand2025

Notes: LNG demand includes ambient capacity; Sources: company data, Drilling Info, Entergy, Tellurian estimates

2

L o u i s i a n aT e x a s

G u l f o f M e x i c o

Driftwood LNG

Cameron LNG

Sabine Pass LNG

+20 bcf/d of potential demand by 2023-25 includes: (1) Sabine Pass 1-6(2) Cameron LNG 1-5(3) Driftwood LNG(4) Golden Pass(5) Calcasieu Pass(6) Port Arthur LNG(7) Lake Charles(8) Magnolia (9) SASOL(10) Lake Charles CCGT(11) OCI Methanol/Ammonia(12) Exxon Beaumont

expansion

West

Inbound to SWLA (2019)

~11 bcf/d

HaynesvillePerryville/Delhi

Eunice/Station 85

Lake Charles, LA

SW Louisiana is the epicenter of US LNG growth• 11 bcf/d of expected pipeline

capacity not enough for +20 bcf/d of potential demand in 2025

• Need North/South infrastructure to connect supply to demand

Golden Pass LNG

Page 3: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Corpus Christi T1-3Freeport T1-3

Sabine Pass T5-6Cameron T1-5

DriftwoodGolden Pass

CalcasieuPort Arthur

Elba Island

-

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2017-2025Growth

2025 2017 2017-2025Growth

2025 2017 2017-2025Growth

2025

Texas Louisiana Other Gulf Coast*

Sector demand growth 2017-2025 (bcf/d)IndustrialPowerLNG

*MS, AL, GA and FLSource: IHS-Markit (long-term outlook 2H 2018), LNG TELL Analysis; Golden Pass and Port Arthur included in LA due to connectivity

LNG dominates demand growthNo better market in the Southeast or US Gulf Coast than SW Louisiana

3

bcf/d

Page 4: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Haynesville: a world class shale play…on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Source: Drilling Info; Haynesville wet gas produciton at $2.75/MMBtu Henry Hub price

4

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

Jan-

18

Jan-

19

Jan-

20

Jan-

21

Jan-

22

Jan-

23

Jan-

24

Jan-

25

Jan-

26

Jan-

27

Jan-

28

Jan-

29

Jan-

30

mcf

/d

Arkla - Haynesville Haynesville North East Texas Arkla

Page 5: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Haynesville production built to lastResilient in low gas price environment

Source; RS Energy

5

$1.14 $0.85 $1.04

$0.20 $0.59 $0.59

$0.27 $0.40

$0.38 $0.08

$0.23 $0.24

$0.62

$0.52 $0.63 $2.31

$2.59 $2.88

Haynesville Marcellus Utica

$/m

mBt

u

Competing play breakevens

Capex Operating Transportation Differentials Royalties and Severence

Page 6: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Last mile problemDespite Haynesville’s position, the infrastructure doesn’t exist to bring it to market

Sources: ARI, Drilling Info

6

Carthage

Perryville

Transco St85

FGT Z3HSC

HHAD

441

Marcellus-Utica196

Permian

Anadarko

111

102

Eagle Ford

131Total selected basin shale production,bcf/d

Resource size, tcf

Marcellus pipelines: 7.7 bcf/d

Midship: 1.3 bcf/d

7.3

16.9

2017 2025

5.88.9

2017 2025

5.612.7

2017 2025

7.3 9.8

2017 2025

24.6

38.1

2017 2025Haynesville

50.6

86.4 35.8

2017 2025 Incrementalproduction

KMI: ~4.0 bcf/d

Page 7: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Del

iver

y

Take

away

Del

iver

y

Take

away

Del

iver

y

Take

away

Del

iver

y

Take

away

Perryville Delhi Inverness Kosci

Shipper delivery vs. takeaway comparison (bcf/d)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Perryville Delhi Inverness Kosci Total NetImbalance

Net pipeline delivery/takeaway (bcf/d)

Market driven out of balanceA significant portion of Northeast pipeline capacity reversals do not reach end-user markets due to physical pipeline constraints

7

Market is looking for new infrastructure to solve the problem

Source: Informational postings on company EBB’s, PointLogic

Page 8: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Perryville basis weakeningHaynesville production largely headed to Perryville/Delhi

Source: iCE, RS Energy

8

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

$(0.30)

$(0.25)

$(0.20)

$(0.15)

$(0.10)

$(0.05)

$-

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr

-16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec

-16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr

-17

May

-17

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

Aug

-17

Sep-

17

Oct

-17

Nov

-17

Dec

-17

Jan-

18

Feb-

18

Mar

-18

Apr

-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

bcf

/d

$/m

mBt

u

Perryville Basis to HH Haynesville Production

Page 9: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

The worst is yet to comeSouthbound capacity just starting to ramp up

Source: RS Energy Group

9

(8.0)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

Cap

acity

and

Flo

w in

to N

orth

Lou

isia

na (b

cf/d

)

ANR CG Mainline NGPL TGP TGT Trunkline Total Southbound Capacity Annual Average Net Southbound Flows

Page 10: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Other markets becoming less attractiveHouston Ship Channel rolling forward curve –Permian wave looming

Transco Station 85 rolling forward curve – Northeast volumes are coming

10

-$0.20

-$0.15

-$0.10

-$0.05

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

MA

Y 19

NO

V 1

9

MA

Y 20

NO

V 2

0

MA

Y 21

NO

V 2

1

MA

Y 22

NO

V 2

2

MA

Y 23

NO

V 2

3

$/m

mBt

u

52 WK Range Last 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year

Source: Bloomberg, ICE

-$0.08

-$0.07

-$0.06

-$0.05

-$0.04

-$0.03

-$0.02

-$0.01

$0.00

MA

Y 19

AUG

19

NO

V 1

9

FEB

20

MA

Y 20

AUG

20

NO

V 2

0

FEB

21

MA

Y 21

AUG

21

NO

V 2

1

FEB

22

MA

Y 22

AUG

22

NO

V 2

2

FEB

23

MA

Y 23

AUG

23

NO

V 2

3

$/m

mBt

u

52 WK Range Last 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year

Page 11: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Louisiana gas flows and basis - 2023RBN Energy Haynesville S&D (bcf/d):

Production: 9.6Demand: 0.5 Net Outflows: 9.1

South Louisiana S&D (bcf/d):Production: 2.6Demand: 4.1 Net Inflows: 1.5Imbalance -0.8-$0.45

2.2

7.9

1.7

0.6

1.9 8.7

1.5

*Haynesville, Bossier, Cotton Valley (Terryville)

Perryville S&D (bcf/d):Production: 0.0Demand: 0.2 Net Inflows: 0.2

3.9

5.5-$0.40

TCO-$0.62

Haynesville*East Texas Transco St 85

Perryville

South LA

Katy/Ship

Page 12: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

HGAPMap & Terms

Page 13: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

HGAP route

13

Page 14: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

HGAP anticipated receipts

14

Note: Actual meter size/location to be determined after the open season closes, PGAP determines the shippers’ desired receipts and verifies the interconnect with third-party pipeline.

Page 15: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

HGAP anticipated deliveries

Note: Actual meter size/location to be determined after the open season closes, PGAP determines the shippers’ desired deliveries and verifies the interconnect with third-party pipeline.

15

Page 16: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Thank you