Graduate Institute

An Unstable Ecosystem: Historical reflections on Conflict and Arms in Sudan

Robert Muggah, Small Arms Survey

Overview

• International and regional dynamics

• Four conflicts and Sudan’s fragile ecosystem

• The role of small arms and light weapons in Sudan

• Options for promoting human security in Sudan

International and regional dynamics

• Fragile neighbours and state collapse

• Foreign and domestic armed groups

• Spill-over and blowback

Four conflicts in Sudan’s fragile ecosystem

• North-South: Arab/Islamic-backed army and militia (PDF) versus Black/Animist rebels (SPLA). Peace agreement (CPA) in 2005 and UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) involved.

• North-West: Arab/Islamic-backed army and militia (Janjaweed) versus Black/Muslim rebels (JEM/SLA and their factions). Peace agreement (DPA) in 2006 and African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) involved.

• North-East: Arab/Islamic-backed army and militia versus Arab/Muslim rebels (Eastern Front). Peace agreement (ESPA) in 2006 brokered by Eritrea. No UN mission involved.

• Ethnic conflicts: Successive conflicts between Darfurian/Southern/Eastern pastoral/agriculturist communities. Multiple local ceasefires brokered and no UN mission involved.

The role of small arms and light weapons

• Nineteenth and early twentieth century trickle

• Cold war flood and the US/Egyptian connection

• Regional rivalries and China

• Oil and the advent of domestic production

• Stirring-up ethnic tensions

• Approximately 2.6-3.3 million weapons in circulation

Options for promoting human security in Sudan

• No magic bullet• Anticipate flashpoints• Enhance international coherence• Regional solutions imperative• Hybrid AMIS/UN force in Darfur• Ensure humanitarian access• Space for dialogue with armed groups• No fly zones and safe havens• Community security, SSR, disarmament• Local capacities for security

enhancement