Governor’s Energy Governor’s Energy Plans: Greenhouse Plans: Greenhouse

Gas Emissions Gas Emissions Benefits Benefits

David Baker David Baker

February, 2007February, 2007

2

Governor’s Energy PlansGovernor’s Energy Plans Sustainable Energy PlanSustainable Energy Plan

Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (EEPS)Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (EEPS)

Energy Independence PlanEnergy Independence Plan Expanded RPS and EEPSExpanded RPS and EEPS Energy Efficiency Revolving Loan FundsEnergy Efficiency Revolving Loan Funds Residential Energy Efficiency Building CodeResidential Energy Efficiency Building Code Expanded Biofuels Capacity and AccessExpanded Biofuels Capacity and Access Invest in Coal Gasification/Enhanced Oil & Gas Invest in Coal Gasification/Enhanced Oil & Gas

RecoveryRecovery Reduced Vehicle Emissions / Alternatives to Reduced Vehicle Emissions / Alternatives to

DrivingDriving

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Reduced consumption

Energy BenefitsEnergy BenefitsBy 2017, 50% of our motor fuel and 25% of our natural By 2017, 50% of our motor fuel and 25% of our natural gas in Illinois can come from alternative sources.gas in Illinois can come from alternative sources.

Motor Fuel Natural Gas

Traditional sources Traditional

sources

50%

25%

Biodiesel & Diesel from Coal

Ethanol

Coal Gasification /

MethaneExtraction

Reduced consumption

Traditional sources

TODAY 2017

Traditional sources

BiodieselEthanol/ IL Crude

23%

TODAY 2017

1%Alternatives

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Illinois Sustainable Energy Illinois Sustainable Energy PlanPlan

Per Gov. Blagojevich’s 2005 State of the Per Gov. Blagojevich’s 2005 State of the State ProposalState ProposalGoals:Goals:

Reduce total energy costs for consumersReduce total energy costs for consumers Reduce the cost of doing business in Reduce the cost of doing business in

Illinois by reducing total energy costs for Illinois by reducing total energy costs for businessesbusinesses

Capture economic development benefits Capture economic development benefits of renewable energy and energy of renewable energy and energy efficiency developmentefficiency development

Increase in-state self-reliance for energyIncrease in-state self-reliance for energy Improve environmental quality in IllinoisImprove environmental quality in Illinois

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Governor’s Energy Governor’s Energy Independence PlanIndependence Plan

GoalsGoals Develop Illinois’ unique natural resources Develop Illinois’ unique natural resources

to:to:1.1. Meet 50% of our motor fuel needs by 2017, and Meet 50% of our motor fuel needs by 2017, and

25% of the natural gas we use by 2017.25% of the natural gas we use by 2017.2.2. Give consumers real energy choices that can Give consumers real energy choices that can

help them use less energy and save money.help them use less energy and save money. 3.3. Create thousands of jobs from new fuel Create thousands of jobs from new fuel

production plants and from increased demand production plants and from increased demand for agricultural crops and coal.for agricultural crops and coal.

4.4. Clean our air and reduce greenhouse gas Clean our air and reduce greenhouse gas emissions that lead to global warming, by emissions that lead to global warming, by cutting consumption of motor fuel.cutting consumption of motor fuel.

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Energy AlternativesEnergy AlternativesEach element will play a key role in Each element will play a key role in moving Illinois toward reduced moving Illinois toward reduced dependence on imported energy.dependence on imported energy.1. Invest in renewable biofuels like

ethanol and biodiesel

2. Make biofuels more available and more usable

3. Invest in natural gas, diesel fuel and electricity made from Illinois coal

4. Use recaptured CO2 to extract more oil and gas

5. Invest in renewable power / energy efficiency and reduce consumption

Elements of Our Plan50% of our motor fuel needs will be met by Illinois crops by 2017

100% of gas stations will provide E-85 biofuels by 2017 (up from 2% today)

25% of our natural gas will come from Illinois coal by 2017

Double Illinois’ oil production and boost natural gas production

Generate cleaner electricity and reduce heating and electricity costs for homes and businesses

Projected Benefits

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Wind Monitoring Wind Monitoring SitesSites

(with Public Data)(with Public Data)

Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs, Western Illinois University. Funding from Illinois Clean Energy Community Foundation

Adequate Wind Capacity

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Renewable Generation Renewable Generation under RPSunder RPS

Scenario from draft report, “Emissions Impact Assessment for the Sustainable Energy Plan Based on Economic Dispatch Considerations”, Illinois Energy Resources Center, Feb. 2006

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Wind Projects Under Development in Illinois, February 2007Wind Projects Under Development in Illinois, February 2007

InstalledProject Developer Location MWMendota Hills Navitas Energy Lee County 50.4Manlius Bureau Valley School District Bureau County 0.66Crescent Ridge Babcock & Brown and Eurus Bureau County 54.5Pike County Illinois Rural Electric Coop Pike County 1.65

Under ConstructionProject Developer Location MWGSG Wind FPC Services Lee and LaSalle Counties 80GSG3 Wind FPC Services Lee and LaSalle Counties 2.5Twin Groves I Horizon Wind Energy McLean County 198

ProposedProject Developer Location MWGSG6 Wind FPC Services Lee and LaSalle Counties 120Twin Groves II Horizon Wind Energy McLean County 198Oak Prairie Wind Farm Oak Prairie Wind Farm, LLC Jo Daviess County 10.5GSG6 Wind FPC Services Lee and LaSalle Counties 120Boone Heritage Wind Farm Guthrie Wind, LLC Boone County 4.95Boone Heritage Wind Farm Rabe Wind, LLC Boone County 6.6AgriWind Agriwind, LLC Marshall County 8.4Stewardship Energy Stewardship Energy, LLC McLean County 9.9Stewardship Energy II Stewardship Energy, LLC Marshall County 20Unnamed BP Alternative Energy Henry County 100Unnamed BP Alternative Energy Knox County 100Unnamed BP Alternative Energy Ford County 60Crescent Ridge II Midwest Wind Energy Bureau County 74Big Sky Wind Farm Midwest Wind Energy Lee & Bureau Counties 200Rail Splitter Wind Farm Horizon Wind Energy Logan and Tazewell Counties 100Blackstone Wind Farm Horizon Wind Energy Livingston County 600Camp Grove Wind Farm Orion Energy Group Marshall and Stark Counties 150White Oak Energy Center Invenergy Wind LLC McLean County 200Unnamed Invenergy Wind LLC Knox and Henry Counties 500Baileyville Wind Farm Navitas Energy Ogle County 80Benson Wind Farm Navitas Energy Woodford County 160Cayuga Ridge PPM Energy Livingston and LaSalle Counties 800TOTAL 3820.35

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Electricity Savings

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

mili

on

kW

h

Energy Efficiency

Renewable Power

Fossil Fuel/Nuclear Generation

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Natural Gas Savings

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

mill

ion

the

rms

Energy Efficiency

Natural Gas Consumption

12

Intersection of Two Intersection of Two Major RTOsMajor RTOs

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Fuel Displaced Depends on Fuel Displaced Depends on Load Shape and Availability Load Shape and Availability

of Resourceof ResourcePJM Marginal Fuel by Hour Average for 2004 Ozone Season

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour

MISC

PETROLEUM

NATURAL GAS

COAL

PJM, “Marginal Fuel Type Data”, 2004, from PJM website

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Average Monthly Wind Average Monthly Wind GenerationGeneration

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Per

cent

of

capa

city

North

Central

Sources: Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs, Western Illinois University, data from wind monitoring stations, June 2005-May 2006.

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Wind Availability vs. Wind Availability vs. Electric LoadElectric Load

AugustAugust

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

per

cen

t ca

pac

ity

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

meg

awatt-h

ou

rs

Wind Capacity

Hourly Load

Sources: PJM Hourly Load Data for Commonwealth Edison, August 2005. Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs, Western Illinois University, wind data from northern Illinois monitoring stations, June 2005-May 2006.

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Preliminary Results:Preliminary Results: Change Change in Illinois Generation, 2007-in Illinois Generation, 2007-

20132013

(20,000)

(15,000)

(10,000)

(5,000)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Nuclea

rCoa

l

Natura

l gas

Fuel oil

Win

d

Oth

er ren

ewable

Energ

y ef

ficie

ncy

Impo

rts (e

xports

)

GW

h

Non-Ozone

Ozone Season

Source: PowerWorld Corporation, Draft Report, “Emissions Impact Assessment for the Illinois Sustainable Energy Plan Based on Transmission System Security Constrained Optimal Power Flow Considerations”, September 2006

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Carbon Dioxide Reductions from Efficiency and Renewables

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

mill

ion

s to

ns

Residential Building Code

EEPS-natural gas

EEPS-electric

Renewable Portfolio Standard

18

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

mill

ion

tons

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Carbon Dioxide Reductions from Expanded Renewable Fuels Capacity