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    Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, Inc., Public Management Research Association and

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    Privatization and Its Reverse: Explaining the Dynamics of the Government Contracting ProcessAuthor(s): Amir Hefetz and Mildred WarnerSource: Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory: J-PART, Vol. 14, No. 2 (Apr.,2004), pp. 171-190Published by: on behalf of theOxford University Press Public Management Research Association

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    Privatization

    n d

    I t s

    R e v e r s e

    Explaining

    t h

    Dynamic s

    o f t h overnment

    ontract ing

    P r o c e s s

    Amir

    Hefetz

    Technion,

    srael nstitute

    f

    Technology

    Mildred

    Warner

    Cornell

    University

    ABSTRACT

    Empirical

    vidence hows ocal

    governmentontracting

    s a

    dynamic

    rocess

    hat ncludes

    movements rom

    public

    delivery

    o markets nd frommarket ontracts ack o in-house

    delivery.

    his

    reverse

    ontracting

    eflectshe

    complexity

    f

    public

    ervice

    rovision

    na

    world

    wheremarket lternativesreused

    along

    with

    public elivery.

    We

    develop

    methodology

    o

    link

    responses

    o

    national

    urveys

    and createa

    longitudinal

    ata set that

    captures

    he

    dynamics

    f

    the

    contracting

    rocess.

    We

    present

    a framework

    hat

    ncorporatesrincipal

    agent

    problems,

    overnment

    management,monitoring

    nd citizen

    oncerns,

    nd

    market

    structure. ur tatistical

    nalysis

    inds

    governmentmanagement,

    monitoring,

    nd

    principal

    agentproblems

    o be most

    mportant

    n

    explaining

    othnew

    contracting

    utand

    contracting

    back-in. rofessional

    anagers

    ecognize

    he

    importance

    f

    monitoring

    nd

    the need

    for

    public

    ngagement

    n he

    service

    elivery rocess.

    heresults

    upport

    he new

    public

    ervice

    that

    argues

    public

    managers

    o more hansteera market

    rocess; hey

    balance echnical

    and

    political

    oncernso secure

    public

    alue.

    INTRODUCTION

    The new

    public

    management

    ncourages overnments

    o be

    moreefficientand

    responsive

    by employingmarketapproacheso publicservicedelivery(EggersandO'Leary1995;

    Hood

    2002;

    Kettl

    1997;

    Osbore and

    Gaebler

    1992).

    Recent

    critiques

    of the new

    public

    management

    hallenge

    he notion hatmarket

    ased

    approaches

    re

    adequate

    o

    capture

    he

    full set of

    political

    considerationshatare

    part

    of local

    government

    ervice

    delivery Box

    1999;

    Denhardt ndDenhardt

    003;

    Kaboolian

    1998;

    Kelly

    1998;

    Moore

    1995;

    O'Looney

    1993;

    Stark

    2002).

    Privatization nd market

    heoriesof

    public

    management

    re driven

    by

    Funding

    for this research

    was

    providedby

    the U.S.

    Department

    of

    Agriculture

    National Research

    Initiative,

    Affinito

    Stewart Grants

    Program,

    Corell

    University;

    the U.S.

    Department

    of

    Agriculture

    Hatch

    Program;

    nd the

    Economic

    Policy

    Institute.Amir Hefetz was a

    PrivatizationFellow with

    EPI,

    based

    at

    Cornell

    University.

    He

    is now a Ph.D.

    studentat Technion n

    Haifa,

    Israel. Mildred

    Warner

    s an

    Associate

    Professorof

    City

    &

    Regional Planning

    at

    Cornell

    University.

    DOI:

    10.1093/jopart/muh012

    Journal

    of

    Public Administration

    Research and

    Theory,

    Vol.

    14,

    no.

    2,

    pp.

    171-190

    ?

    2004 Journalof Public Administration

    Research and

    Theory,

    Inc.;

    all

    rights

    reserved.

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    172

    Journalof Public

    Administration

    Research

    and

    Theory

    government

    failure

    to

    meet economic and

    organizational

    efficiency

    (Niskanen

    1971;

    Savas

    2000).

    However,

    the

    need

    for

    public

    goods

    provision

    arises from

    market

    failure,

    and

    contract markets exhibit

    many

    of these

    same failures

    (de

    Leon and

    Denhardt

    2000;

    Lowery

    1998). A theoretical framework is needed which gets beyond the market versus

    government

    failure

    dichotomy

    and

    explores

    the full

    range

    of

    components

    in the

    public

    service

    delivery

    decision

    (Zebre

    and

    McCurdy

    1999).

    Some scholars have used transac-

    tion cost

    approaches

    to

    compare

    the costs of direct

    public

    delivery

    with the

    contracting

    process (Alexander

    2001;

    Brown and Potoski

    2003;

    Nelson

    1997).

    We

    present

    a

    broader

    framework that

    also includes

    attention to the

    uniqueness

    of citizen

    interaction

    and

    pro-

    fessional

    management

    in

    public

    service

    provision.

    Pragmatic

    local

    government

    managers

    use markets

    in

    a

    dynamic approach; they

    contract out and

    bring

    unsuccessful contracts back in-house for

    direct

    public provision

    (Warner

    and Hebdon

    2001; Warner, Ballard,

    and

    Hefetz

    2003).

    They

    also mix

    public

    provision

    and

    private

    contracts

    for

    the same service

    (Miranda

    andLerner

    1995).

    Even with

    careful

    attention to

    monitoring,

    local

    government experience

    with

    contracting

    has

    not

    always

    been

    positive

    (Adler

    1999;

    Sclar

    2000).

    Local

    government practice

    has

    always

    involved

    a mix of

    public

    provision

    and

    government contracting

    (Sonenblum,

    Kirlin,

    and

    Reis

    1977).

    However,

    this behavior was

    reinterpreted

    as

    privatization

    in

    the 1980s as

    part

    of a broader

    push

    for market

    approaches

    to

    government

    service

    delivery (Henig

    1990).

    This enthusiasm

    for market

    solutions

    was reflected

    in

    new data series. The

    International

    City County Management

    Association

    (ICMA)

    in

    1982

    and the Census of

    Governments

    in 1987

    began quinquennial surveys

    of local

    government

    contracting,

    and

    these

    remain the

    primary

    sources

    of

    national

    data. Because the

    presumption

    of

    government

    failure was so

    strong,

    and the

    political support

    for

    market solutions so

    widespread,

    these

    surveys

    do

    not

    attempt

    to

    capture

    the

    dynamic

    movement between

    market and

    government

    provision typical

    of

    local

    government practice.

    Rather,

    they

    focus on

    contracting

    as a

    one-

    way

    street,

    asking

    only

    which

    services

    have been contracted

    out.

    In

    this article we

    present

    a

    methodology

    that links

    responses

    to the

    ICMA

    surveys

    to

    create

    a

    longitudinal

    data

    set

    that enables

    us to address the

    dynamics

    of

    the

    contracting

    process.

    We find that from

    1992 to

    1997,

    93

    percent

    of

    the

    628

    governments

    that

    responded

    in both

    survey years newly

    contracted out

    at least one

    service,

    and 81

    percent

    of these

    governments

    contracted back-in at least

    one

    service.

    Almost

    three-quarters

    of

    governments

    engaged

    in

    both new

    contracting

    out and

    contracting

    back-in.

    These

    findings challenge

    the

    adequacy of a singular focus on contractingout. On average, governments newly contract

    out

    six services and contract back-in

    four services. That

    contracting

    back-in would

    be so

    common-over

    half

    the

    level of

    new

    contracting out-requires

    that researchers

    give

    attention

    to the

    dynamics

    of

    the

    contracting process.'

    Private

    firms that contract out balance concerns

    with

    efficiency, quality, timing,

    reliability, security,

    and

    internal

    capacity

    (Nelson

    1997).

    The new

    public

    service literature

    argues

    local

    government managers

    who use market

    approaches

    to deliver services must

    balance

    an even

    wider set of

    concerns,

    including

    accountability

    and

    public

    preference

    (Blanchard,

    Hinnant,

    and

    Wong

    1998;

    Feldman

    and Khademian

    2001;

    Sanderson

    1998;

    Stirton

    and

    Lodge

    2001).

    1 For

    our

    study,

    only

    services once

    provided by government

    are

    included

    in

    our definitionof

    contracting

    back-in.

    This could include

    contracting

    back-in from

    nonprofit,

    or

    profit,

    or

    other

    government

    providers.

    In their definitionof

    contracting-in,

    Welch and Bretschneider

    1999)

    include new

    contracting

    out such as

    intermunicipal ooperation

    and

    governmentalentrepreneurship.

    Our

    study distinguishes

    new

    contracting

    out from

    contracting

    back-in.

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    Hefetzand

    Warner

    Privatization

    nd

    Its Reverse

    What

    is

    Contracting

    Back-in?

    The

    debate over

    privatization

    s

    shifting

    from

    an

    ideological

    debate

    (Savas 2000)

    to

    a

    proper

    discussion of

    the

    political,

    economic,

    and

    community

    actors that determine

    choice of market rgovernment elivery FeigenbaumndHenig1994;Kirkpatrick999;

    Lowery

    1999;

    Sclar

    2000).

    The same

    concernswith

    efficiency,quality,

    and nnovation hat

    motivate

    privatization,may promote

    contracting

    back-in

    (Henig

    1990;

    Warner and

    Hebdon

    2001).

    Contracting

    ack-incan

    be

    several

    hings.Typically

    t

    is assumed o be

    competitive

    bidding,

    where

    ocal

    employees

    contract o

    bring

    he workback

    (Martin1999).

    However,

    in

    an

    analysis

    of

    twenty-six

    case

    studies of reverse

    contracting,

    ompetitivebidding

    explained

    less than half of the cases

    (Ballard

    and

    Warner

    2000).

    In

    all

    of the

    cases,

    disappointment

    with

    service

    quality

    or difficulties with

    contract

    specification

    and

    monitoring

    were

    factors

    driving

    he

    decisionto

    bring

    he contract

    back

    in-house.

    In

    most

    of the cases, internalprocess improvementby labor managementcooperationwas

    associated

    with

    contracting

    ack-in.

    Contracting

    back-in

    may

    reflect market success where

    competition

    increases

    efficiency (Lavery

    1999).

    In

    other

    cases

    it

    reflects failure of markets o

    meet desired

    outcomes

    or failure of

    government

    o

    adequatelymanage

    and monitorcontracts

    Sclar

    2000).

    It also

    may

    represent

    new form of

    partnership

    etween

    public

    and

    private

    actors

    (Freeman

    000;

    Rhodes

    1996)

    where

    both

    cooperate

    n

    service

    provision.

    The

    debate on

    privatization

    as been

    highly

    ideological,

    relying primarily

    on

    case

    studies

    where

    proponents

    ind

    cost

    saving

    efficiencies

    (Eggers

    and

    O'Leary

    1995;

    Savas

    2000)

    and detractors

    ind cost

    overruns,

    orruption,

    nd erosion

    n

    wages

    and

    in

    citizen

    voice

    (Hebdon

    1995;

    Sclar

    2000;

    Starr

    1988).

    Although empiricalanalyses

    find

    only

    limited

    support

    or

    market

    advantages

    Boyne

    1998;

    Ferris

    1986;

    Hirsch

    1995;

    Milne

    1997),

    the debateremainsdominated

    y public

    choice

    theory

    andhas

    rarely

    addressed he

    dynamic

    and mixed

    (public

    and

    private)

    natureof

    local

    government

    ervice

    delivery

    (Boyne 2002).

    Local

    government

    ontracting

    has been

    treatedas a one

    way process-

    towardmarkets-and most studieshave

    only

    lookedat

    contracting

    ut

    (Boyne

    1998;

    Ferris

    1986;

    Hirsch

    1995).

    Those studies that have

    acknowledged

    he

    possibility

    of reverse

    privatization

    r

    contracts

    eing

    brought

    ack n-house

    Kodryzcki

    998;

    Lopez

    de

    Silanes,

    Shleifer,

    and

    Vishny

    1997)

    havenot

    given

    it

    detailed

    attention.

    Warner

    nd

    Hebdon

    2001)

    are the onlyones to empiricallymeasurecontracting ack-indirectly,as another orm of

    service

    provision,

    but their

    analysis

    s

    limited

    to

    New

    York

    state.

    Reverse

    contracting

    demonstrates he

    complexity

    of

    service

    provision

    in

    a world

    where marketalternativesare used

    along

    with

    public delivery.

    It

    may

    involve market

    failure,

    government

    ailure,

    or both.

    To

    gain

    a

    better

    understanding

    f the

    contracting

    processrequires

    an

    analysis

    of both

    contracting

    ut and

    contracting

    ack-in,

    which

    gives

    attention o

    economic,

    managerial,

    nd

    politicalperspectives.

    A

    Framework or

    Understanding

    he

    Complexity

    of

    Government

    Service

    Delivery

    Both theories of

    government

    ailureand market ailure

    rely

    on the market

    paradigm

    o

    definethe

    necessary

    evel

    of

    government

    ntervention.

    ublicchoice

    theory

    argues

    iberal

    policies

    that allow market-like

    olutions

    may

    replace

    central

    planning

    and

    improve

    he

    efficiency

    of

    the

    political process (Buchanan

    nd Tullock

    1974). Throughprivatization,

    173

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    174

    Journalof Public

    Administration

    Researchand

    Theory

    private

    irms

    compete

    for

    public

    service

    delivery

    which

    may

    lead to

    cost

    savings,higher

    efficiency,

    and less

    government

    nvolvement

    Domberger

    nd Jensen

    1997;

    Savas

    2000).

    Critics of

    public

    choice

    challenge

    the

    separation

    of

    provision

    from

    production,

    he

    methodologicalndividualism f aggregatingndividual onsumerpreferenceso achieve

    the collective

    public good,

    and

    competition

    as

    a

    substitute

    or

    planning

    n

    local

    public

    service markets

    Lowery

    1998,

    1999;

    Starr

    1988).

    The social

    values

    inherent

    n

    public

    services

    may

    not be

    adequately

    ddressed

    y

    the

    economic

    efficiency

    calculusof markets

    Kelly

    1998;

    Starr

    1988).

    The

    consumer otion

    of

    citizenship

    does not

    adequately

    ddress

    he

    broader

    ocial

    concerns

    of the citizen

    (deLeon

    and Denhardt

    2000).

    Likewise,

    governments

    are

    more than a

    business;

    they

    reflect

    collective

    identity,

    espond

    o

    diversity,

    and

    promote

    ocial

    equity

    Box 1999).

    Increasing

    attention

    is

    being given

    to the

    intrinsic value

    of

    interactionbetween citizens and

    government

    n

    the

    public

    service

    delivery

    process

    to

    promotedemocracy,community

    building,and a moresocially equitable ystemof urban erviceprovision Denhardt nd

    Denhardt

    000;

    Frug

    1998;

    Marmolo

    1998;

    Potapchuck,

    Crocker,

    nd Schechter

    1998).

    To

    provide

    a better

    understanding

    f

    the

    dynamicprocess

    of

    government

    ervice

    delivery restructuring,

    we

    present

    a

    framework that

    includes attention to both

    organizational

    ehaviorand market tructure.

    Principal Agent

    Problems

    Transaction cost

    theory

    in

    public organizations

    combines both

    individual

    and

    organizational

    ehavior o address

    principal

    agent

    problems

    n

    government

    rganization

    (Williamson1996).

    Goal

    incongruence

    etween

    governments

    nd their contractors

    may

    reduce

    privatization

    r increase

    contracting

    ack-in.Political

    pressure

    rom

    government

    employees,

    unions,

    and

    budget-maximizing

    ureaucrats lso

    may

    limit

    private

    contracts

    (Savas

    2000;

    Siegel 1999).

    However,

    empirical

    tudieshave found

    conflicting

    videnceof

    the

    impact

    of labor

    opposition.

    n

    some cases it is shown o reduce

    privatization

    Chandler

    and

    Feuille

    1991;

    Ferris

    1986;

    Hirsch

    and

    Osbore

    2000);

    in

    others

    t has

    limited

    or

    no

    effect

    (O'Brien

    1994;

    Warner

    nd Hebdon

    2001).

    Recent

    studies

    of

    public

    managers

    ave

    challenged

    he self-interest laims of

    public

    choice

    theory

    and

    emphasized

    professional

    motivation

    or

    public

    service

    (DiIulio

    1994;

    Francois

    2000;

    Moore

    1995).

    Management

    More

    professional ity

    management,

    s

    found

    n

    the council

    manager

    orm

    of

    government,

    may

    minimize the

    effect

    of

    politics

    on

    local decisions and lead to a

    higher

    level of

    privatization

    Feiock

    and

    Kim

    2000;

    Moon and deLeon

    2001).

    The

    government

    manager

    must

    decidewhether

    o

    makeor

    buy

    a

    service

    subject

    o market

    onditions,

    nternal

    res-

    sure,

    and state restrictions n

    debt

    limit

    and taxes

    (Hirsch

    1995, 1970;

    Lopez-de-Silanes,

    Shleifer,

    and

    Vishny

    1997;

    Nelson

    1997).

    Political climate also

    may

    affect

    managers'

    decisions

    Savas2001).

    Politics

    s

    part

    of

    public

    management,

    nd

    good

    managers

    o not

    ust

    make

    technicaldecisions.

    They

    interact

    n

    the

    political process (Nalbandian

    1999)

    and

    facilitate

    publicengagement Feldman

    ndKhademian

    001;

    Svara

    1998).

    Market

    Structure

    Theoretically ompetition

    s

    the

    key

    to

    ensuring

    avings

    from

    privatization

    Boyne

    1998;

    Savas

    2000).

    Publicchoice

    theory mplies

    competition

    will

    be

    greatest

    n

    fragmented

    ocal

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    Hefetzand

    Warner Privatization nd Its Reverse

    government

    ettings

    (Tiebout 1956).

    Lack of

    alternative

    uppliers

    has been

    shown

    to be

    a barriero

    privatization

    n

    both nner

    cities

    (Hirsch1995)

    andrural reas

    Kodrzycki

    994;

    Warnerand

    Hefetz

    2003).

    In

    order o create

    competition,

    ocal

    governments

    ngage

    in

    mixedpublicandprivatedelivery nthe same servicearea Miranda ndLerner1995)and

    competitivebidding

    (Martin1999).

    These movements rom

    public delivery

    to contracts

    andfrom

    contracts ack

    to

    publicdelivery

    llustrate he

    dynamic

    nature f service

    delivery

    and the

    pragmatism

    f

    local

    governmentmanagers.

    Monitoring

    and

    Citizen

    Engagement

    Contractingequires

    lear

    specification

    f all the attributes f a

    good

    or

    service

    even

    latent

    ones associatedwith

    citizen

    voice).

    In

    addition,

    t

    requires

    clear criteria

    or

    evaluating

    performanceEggers

    1997;

    Poisterand

    Strieb

    1999).

    Performancemeasurement emands

    a

    professional

    monitoring

    ystem (Perrin1998)

    to enhancethe likelihoodof successful

    contracting.ncontrast,heabsenceof a good monitoring ystemmayleadtohigher evels

    of

    contracting

    ack-in.

    However,

    performance

    measurement as been criticized

    or

    failing

    to measure some of

    the

    most

    important spects

    of citizen voice and

    engagement

    hat

    are

    core to the

    governance

    process (Sanderson

    1998).

    A recent

    study

    measuring

    itizen

    voice and

    privatization

    ound that

    governments ngaging

    in

    higher

    levels

    of

    privatiza-

    tion

    gave

    more attention

    o

    technical

    efficiency

    measuresbut

    not to citizen voice

    (Warner

    and

    Hefetz

    2002).

    Studies

    of

    contracting

    how that when contract

    specification

    and

    monitoring

    are

    difficult,

    ervicesaremore

    ikely

    to be

    provided

    n-house

    Nelson

    1997).

    The

    complex

    and

    changing

    nature

    of

    many public

    services

    requires

    governments

    o

    engage

    in

    relational

    contracting o thatmonitoring an be an ongoing process(Kavanagh nd Parker1999;

    Sclar

    2000).

    Monitoring

    s

    costly

    in

    terms

    of time and nformation.Casestudieshave found

    the cost of

    monitoring

    o

    average

    nearly

    20

    percent

    of contract osts

    (Pack

    1989;

    Prager

    1994).

    Paroushand

    Prager

    1999)

    suggest public managers

    decide whether o

    contract

    subject

    o

    the costs of

    in-house

    production

    ersus

    contracting

    nd

    monitoring

    osts

    given

    the

    possibility

    the

    contractor

    may

    deceive.

    The

    monitoringprocess

    startswith service

    specification

    ndcontinues

    with

    government

    versight

    andassessment

    f

    service

    delivery.

    Weak

    monitoring

    ontrolwill

    yield

    lower

    han

    expected avings

    Sclar

    2000;

    Siegal

    1999).

    We

    hypothesize

    hat

    the

    levels

    of new

    contracting

    ut and

    contracting

    ack-inwill

    be affected

    by

    a combinationof

    principal-agent

    roblems,

    governmentmanagement,

    economic and marketconsiderations, nd monitoringand citizen concerns.Typically

    studies

    of

    the decisionto

    make or

    buy

    look at a

    single

    point

    in

    time decision

    (Coles

    and

    Hesterly

    1998;

    Nelson

    1997).

    We believe that

    contracting

    s an

    ongoingprocess

    and that

    monitoring

    s a

    key

    feedbackmechanism.

    By

    looking

    over

    two time

    periods,

    we

    capture

    some

    of those

    dynamics.

    DATA

    AND METHODS

    Longitudinal

    Construction of the Data

    Set

    This researchcomparesnew contractingout with contractingback-in on managerial,

    political,

    and economic

    grounds.

    Data for

    this

    study

    are drawn romthe

    ICMA 1992 and

    1997

    Surveys

    of

    Alternative

    Service

    Delivery

    Approaches,

    he

    Census

    of

    Government

    finance iles for

    1992,

    and he

    Census

    of

    Population

    nd

    Housing

    or 1990.

    Every

    ive

    years

    175

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    176 Journalof

    Public

    Administration

    Researchand

    Theory

    since

    1982,

    ICMAhas

    surveyed

    all

    counties

    with

    morethan

    25,000

    population

    roughly

    1,600

    out of

    3,100

    total)

    and

    cities over

    10,000

    population

    roughly

    3,300).

    Roughly

    a

    third

    of

    all

    governments

    ontacted

    respond

    (31

    percent

    for

    1992

    and 32

    percent

    for

    1997),

    yieldingasampleof roughly1,400governmentsachyear.TheICMAdatacover64public

    services

    and

    six

    alternative ervice

    delivery

    approaches:

    ontracting

    o

    for-profit

    irms,

    nonprofit

    irms,

    or to

    another

    government

    or

    public

    authority;

    elling

    franchises,

    using

    volunteers,

    and

    providing

    subsidies for

    the

    service.

    In this

    study

    any

    alternative

    o

    delivering

    ervices

    entirelyby government

    mployees

    s

    considered case of

    contracting

    out.

    The

    main

    alternatives o

    internal

    government

    rovision

    are

    contracts

    o

    private

    or-

    profit

    firms and

    intergovernmental

    ontracting.

    Although

    ocal

    governments

    have

    used

    contracting

    or

    a

    long

    time,

    on

    average

    the

    majority

    of

    services

    (58

    percent)

    are

    still

    provided

    directly

    by

    in-house

    provision

    in

    1997.

    The

    surveys

    also

    ask

    managers

    68

    questions

    about factors

    that are

    motivators,

    obstacles,

    or

    important

    n

    implementing

    alternative

    ervice

    delivery.

    We

    paired

    esponses

    rom

    he

    1992

    and 1997

    surveys

    o

    create

    a

    longitudinal

    ata

    set

    with

    628

    responding

    municipalities.

    Problems

    with

    changes

    n

    survey

    design

    in

    1988

    do

    not

    allow

    further

    ongitudinal

    ombination.

    Places

    responding

    o the

    survey

    n

    both

    1992

    and

    1997

    exhibit

    higher

    management

    apacity

    and

    higher

    evels

    of

    contracting.2

    The

    ICMA

    surveys

    ask

    only

    how

    the

    service

    s

    provided

    urrently,

    ot

    whether

    his is

    a

    new

    contract

    or

    longstanding rocedure.

    To

    determine

    how

    much

    new

    contracting

    was

    actually

    occurring,

    we

    neededa

    method

    o track

    changes

    n

    formsof

    service

    delivery

    for

    every

    service

    for each

    government.

    We

    coded

    the data

    nto

    four

    exclusive

    categories.

    Our

    method

    distinguished

    whether

    a

    service s

    provided

    ntirelyby government

    mployees,

    by

    mixed

    publicprovision

    and

    privatecontracts,by

    contract

    xclusively,

    or

    not

    provided

    at

    all. We

    combined

    hese

    exclusive

    alternatives

    ver time

    to

    createa

    transition

    matrix

    hat

    allows us

    to

    track

    changes

    n

    service

    delivery

    methods.

    See

    figure

    1.

    This

    matrix

    method

    enablesus

    to

    compare

    tability

    n

    formof

    service

    delivery

    and

    to

    assess

    shifts in

    the

    direction of

    provision-towards

    direct

    public

    delivery

    or

    towards

    contracts.

    One

    challenge

    with

    this

    pairingapproach

    s

    that

    respondents

    may

    not

    classify

    their

    service

    provision

    n the

    same

    manner n

    each

    survey

    year.

    In

    order o

    increase

    he

    reliability

    of

    the

    analysis,

    we

    combined

    he two

    contracting

    lternatives,

    mixed

    public/

    private

    and

    totally

    contracted ut

    into

    contracting

    ut.

    We

    excluded

    he

    not

    provided

    option

    from

    our

    analysis

    because

    such

    events

    are not

    relevant

    o our

    analysis.

    The

    reduced

    matrix

    has nine

    possible

    combinations

    ver

    the two

    time

    periods

    which

    we

    group

    nto four

    categories:

    table

    public

    delivery,

    table

    contracts,

    ew

    contracting

    ut,

    and

    contracting

    ack-in.

    Stable

    public

    delivery

    is

    found in

    section 1

    where

    government

    delivers

    he

    service

    via its

    own

    employees

    n

    both

    ime

    periods.

    Stable

    contracting

    s

    found

    in

    section

    2

    where

    he

    government

    s

    either

    contracting

    he

    service

    n

    part

    or

    completely

    o

    an

    alternative

    service

    provider

    in

    both

    time

    periods.

    Although

    this

    option

    contains

    movements

    rom

    mixed

    public

    and

    private

    delivery

    o

    totally

    contracted ut

    and

    vice

    versa,

    we

    decided

    o

    include hese

    movements n

    the

    stable

    contracting ategory

    ince

    contracting

    continued.

    This

    minimizes

    chancesof

    recall

    error

    rom

    survey

    respondents

    ho

    may

    report

    2

    In the pairedsurveys,the numberof places with a council

    manager

    orm of

    government

    s

    significantlygreater

    (72

    percent)

    han n

    either

    of the full

    surveys

    1992

    (62

    percent)

    or

    1997

    (64

    percent)

    X2

    =

    20.5,p