Gold Yearbook 2019

26 March 2019

Jeffrey Christian

Rohit Savant

Sponsors and Partners

Gold Fields Limited

The Institute of Scrap Recycling

Industries, Inc.

Kitco Metals Inc.

Monex Precious Metals

NOAH Capital Markets

Sabin Metal Group of Companies

China Gold Association

China National Gold

Group Corporation

Jingyi Gold Co Ltd.

Special Thanks to the Following Partners

For Making the CPM Gold Yearbook

2019 Available in Chinese

Gold Prices

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

$ / Oz

Gold Prices: 1 December 2010 to 25 March 2019

Global Economic Outlook

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020p 2025p

World

Emerging and Developing Economies

Advanced Economies

Real Gross Domestic Product

Annual, Projected Through 2027

Percent Change Percent Change

London OTC Trading Volumes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

19-Nov-18 24-Dec-18 28-Jan-19 4-Mar-19

Total of All Transactions

Spot's Percent of Total

London OTC Trading Volumes

Million Ounces Percent

Investment Demand

6

Despite What It Seems Like Gold Prices Are Holding Up Fairly Well

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

$/Ounce

Nominal

Real

Base Price = 2018

Historical Annual Average Real and Nominal Gold Prices

Numerous Moderate Probability Risks

IMPACT

HIGHLOW MODERATE

PR

OB

AB

ILIT

Y

HIG

HL

OW

MO

DE

RA

TE

Risks, Probabilities, and Impact Of Factors Affecting U.S. Dollar Gold Price

Sustained

Equity Market

Volatility

Sharp

Increase In

Equity

Markets

Deterioration of E.U. economic

data

U.S. Political Risk

Stronger Than

Expected U.S.

Inflation

International Politics- Policy

Missteps

Sharp Decline In Equity

Markets

Bond Market Crash

Trade

Wars

Deterioration of

U.S. economic data

Sharp Increase In

Real Rates

Deterioration Of Chinese

Economic Data

U.S. Housing Market Decline

Time Frame: Next Twelve Months

U.S.

Infrastructure

Spending

Debt Related

Crisis

Gold Investment Demand

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17

Net Investment Demand

Gold Investment Demand

Annual, Investment Demand Projected Through 2019, Prices Through 2018

Percent Change Million Ounces

Gold and Interest Rates

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Real Interest Rates

Median Monthly Returns on Gold in Different Real Interest Rate Environments

Percent Percent

Dollar To Move Sideways At Current Levels

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18

Index

Trade-Weighted DollarMonthly Data, through January 2019

Gold ETF Holdings

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Million Ounces

Monthly Exchange Traded Products' Physical Gold Holdings

Feb. 2019

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Million Ounces

Annual Net Changes to Gold ETP Holdings

Through Feb. 2019

Investor Interest Was Weak Across Investment Vehicles

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16

Long

Short

Net Fund Position in Comex

Million Oz.Million Oz.

Gross Long and Short Positions of Non-Commercial Positions

Comex Gold Futures & Options, Weekly, through 05 Mar. 2019

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18

Million Ounces

Gold Coin Demand

Million Ounces

Annual, Through 2018

Central Bank Demand

14

Central Bank Gold Demand

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19p

Million OuncesMillion

Ounces

Net Additions

Net Reductions

Official Transactions

Annual Data, Projected through 2019

Central Banks Display Price Sensitivity

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Million Ounces

Gold Prices (Right Scale)

$/Ounce

Gold Prices and Shifts in Central Bank Gold Reserves

Annual, Through 2018

Correlation: -0.52

Supply

17

Total Gold Supply

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 17

Secondary Supply

Transitional Economies Exports

to Market Economies

Market Economy Mine

Production

Mln Oz

Total Gold

Annual, Projected Through 2019

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 14 18

Mine Supply

Secondary Supply

Total Supply

Year-on-Year Net Changes to Gold Mine Supply, Secondary

Supply, and Total Supply

Mln Oz

Gold Mine Supply Approaching A Turning Point

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18

Mln Oz

Total Gold Mine Supply

Mln Oz

Dollar Versus Major Commodity Currencies

-60.00 -50.00 -40.00 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00

Au ($)

CAD

ZAR

AUD

MXN

RUB

Percent

Gold Prices and Domestic Currencies of Major Gold Producers

Percentage Change Between 30 June 2014 and 31 December 2018

New Capacity Additions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Post 2022

Post 2022 2022 2021

2020 2019 2018

2011

Dec 2018: Estimated Total Annual Gross Gold Mine Production Capacity Additions Since 2011

Mln. Oz. Mln. Oz.

Addition To Capacity Between 2011 and 2017 Due to Rising Prices

Between 2002 & 2011

- 2017

AISC Rise Driven By Cash Costs

$100

$300

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

All-in Sustaining Costs

Sustaining Costs

Cash Costs

Quarterly Production-Weighted All-In Sustaining Cost

For Selected Gold Mining Companies

USD/Oz

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

12

Q1

Q3 13

Q1

Q3 14

Q1

Q3 15

Q1

Q3 16

Q1

Q3 17

Q1

Q3 18

Q1

Q3

Production-Weighted All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) For

Selected Gold Mining Companies

USD/Oz

AISC:Q1 2013-Q1

2016 - down 22.8%

AISC: Q1 2016-Q3

2018- up 10%

Fabrication Demand

23

Gold Fabrication Demand

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19p

Other Uses

Dental/ Medical

Electronics

Developed Country-Jewelry

Developing Country-Jewelry

Gold Fabrication Demand

Million Ounces

Annual, Projected Through 2019

Gold Prices In Major Gold Consuming Countries

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

USD EUR

Chinese Yuan Indian Rupee

Japanese Yen Turkish Lira (RHS)

Gold Prices in Select Currencies, Indexed

1 Jan 2017 = 100, Data as of 31 January 2019

Index Index

Auspicious Days For Marriage In India

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2017

2018

2019

Auspicious Days For Marriage In India

No. of Days

Questions

27