GNSS National implementation plans

1

GNSS Nationalimplementation plans

SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 20122

Index

Purpose of the plans

Content of the plans

CBA

Main outcomes


Purpose of the plans

To provide an instrument to countries to support them in the elaboration of a “roadmap for the implementation of EGNOS use in the civil aviation” from the state viewpoint

Development of a “generic” toolIts elaboration for 8 countries

The plan is an enabler: what has to be done, who and when, costs and benefits


Content of the plans (1) State of play:

– Main stakeholders/decision-makers– Status/plan of air navigation infrastructures

(non-GNSS, GNSS, EGNOS)– Present use and operations– Strategy and plans– Service needs (driven by present use/operations,

strategy/plans, traffic growth)


Content of the plans (2)

Analysis of impacts:– Identification of impacts generated by EGNOS in

terms of: Air transport services quality and demand, Industrial benefits, Environmental benefits, Strategic benefits

– Prioritization and ranking (from 1 to 9) to evaluate the social benefits


Content of the plans (3) Economical feasibility:

– CBA (cost, economic benefits, social benefits)– Output (financial flows, indirect benefits split,

sensitive analysis)


Content of the plans (4) Action plan:

– Actions (what has to be done and why, who has to do and when)

– Recommendations


SIRAJ plans (1)

Development of National implementation plans for EGNOS services implementation (*):

In Civil AviationFor 8 countries10 years time lag (2011 – 2021) (**)

(*) sub-regional elements will be considered(**)time lag decided on the basis of a trade-off to ensure robustness


SIRAJ plans (2)

Countries:AlgeriaCôte d’IvoireGabonJordanMauritaniaMoroccoSaudi ArabiaSenegal


It is a proposed roadmap for EGNOS exploitation in Civil Aviation, in the addressed country, in the 10-years period 2011 – 2021.

The GNSS Implementation Plan takes into account the particular needs of the country in the Civil Aviation domain, and the social and economical benefits that the use of EGNOS will generate.

SIRAJ plans (3)


Following a scoping out of the state of play, of navigation infrastructure needs and of the possibility to introduce EGNOS technology, the GNSS Implementation Plan elaborates the country shared policy to facilitate the EGNOS introduction and use.

For this reason, its preparation required various iterations in close interaction with the country stakeholders, for reviewing, discussing and commenting it.

SIRAJ plans (4)


SIRAJ plans – Main sources

1. Info from countries (answers to questionnaire)2. Info from METIS (MEDA countries, non-MEDA countries)3. ACI (Airports Council International) Global Traffic Forecast

2008-20274. SIRAJ outcomes. e.g.:

– Telespazio market analysis on various secondary sources– Telespazio analysis of impacts (see slide)– Assumptions shared with EU ANSP on the basis of EU

model purposely customized for the SIRAJ countries


SIRAJ plans – Country status in civil aviation

Main stakeholders for Civil Aviation (i.e. decision-makers)

State of play of Air Navigation infrastructure (non GNSS and GNSS):

–Current status –Planned evolutions

Country strategy in Civil Aviation (i.e. available plan and regulations, Conference/Commissions, ICAO Regions and Regional Groups, Bilateral agreements of interest)


SIRAJ plans – Service needs

Service needs:– Market size (country aviation market size, number of

airport and traffic)– Use of GNSS/ GNSS strategy (i.e. operation needs, status/

plan for GNSS procedures development, strategy in relation to GNSS use)

– Opportunities and issues (peculiar characteristics of the country in relation to SBAS LPV, airports not equipped with conventional navigation aid infrastructures,…)


SIRAJ plans – Analysis of impacts

Evaluation of impacts generated by EGNOS in the country reliable estimation of social benefits

EC “IMPACT ASSESSMENT GUIDELINES” (SEC(2009) 92) for the investigation of the potential effects of EGNOS service introduction

Impacts prioritization and ranking (inputs from questionnaire and sub-regional elements) estimation of social benefits


Economical feasibilityCBA

Initiative: exploitation of EGNOS in the Civil Aviation domain

EGNOS SoL service

SBAS LPV application

At country level and from the state point of view10 year period, time lag 2011-2021Costs

Benefits (direct and indirect/social)

Financial flows

Key drivers (sensitivity)


Exploitation of EGNOS in the Civil Aviation domain:

EGNOS service - EGNOS SoL service

Business case: SBAS LPV application

At country level and from the state point of view

Economical feasibilityValue chain

EGNOS Operator

EGNOS SoL SP

ANSP AirlineIndustries

Research entities

State

Institutional/Safety-of-life market:

ASNP - Regulated entity (acting for the Public Authorities)

Airlines - final users

Industries/Research entities - Map providers, Terminal/ receivers manufacturers/ integrators, IT companies, Certification entities, Procedure designers, etc.


Economical feasibilityCBA methodology

10 year periodTime lag 2011-2021

Costs for the state: EGNOS SoL opex Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure Benefits for the state: Direct benefits: taxes Indirect benefits (based on impact analysis and prioritization)

CBA outcomes: Yearly financial flows and NPV Sensitivity analysis


Economical feasibilityCBA model


Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions - EGNOS costs (1)

Capex (i.e. the costs for the necessary infrastructures, incl. certification) = 0Opex (i.e. the cost for operating the EGNOS SoL service) > 0 (*) , afforded by the states. It is assumed that operation costs to provide EGNOS SoL to a certain area are shared among the states included the area. This implies an agreement on cost-sharing between the states, then each state identifies a suitable origin of funds decides and/ or applies its specific charging mechanism (how to charge, who to charge).

States pay for EGNOS opex starting from the year T0 of EGNOS SoL FOC


EGNOS opex evaluation:– METIS min/ max value for EGNOS opex for MEDA

countries (Algeria, Jordan and Morocco)– For non-MEDA countries on the basis of the EGNOS

usage (i.e. number of landings) compared to Morocco - states are divided into 3 categories considering their traffic compared to Morocco (less, equal, major)

Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions - EGNOS costs (2)


Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions - EGNOS FOC

EGNOS FOC T0 tentative dates just for CBA elaboration purposes:–2012, for MEDA countries (i.e. Morocco, Algeria and Jordan) in line with the METIS assumptions–2015, for African/ non-MEDA countries (i.e. Gabon, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Senegal)–2018, for Middle-East/ non- MEDA and Arabic Peninsula countries (i.e. Saudi Arabia)

EGNOS adoption, 1 year after EGNOS FOC in the best case for all countries


Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure (1)

capex of the EGNOS local monitoring infrastructure/ system (for independent monitoring of the signal, for interference monitoring…)

Evaluation using:–Using METIS costs for MEDA countries–For non-MEDA countries on the basis of the number of airports compared to Morocco

It is assumed that the capex of such monitoring infrastructure/system is afforded by the State, while the opex is afforded by the ANSP starting from the year before the introduction time


Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure (2)

Today such infrastructures is not mandatory, nevertheless it has to be considered that, according to ICAO, each State is responsible for the Air Navigation Service provision over its Country. Additionally the ICAO SARPS standards state the any State that approves GNSS-based operations, also based on EGNOS use, should ensure the recording and retention of the corresponding relevant data. Than, it can be expected that the States will equip themselves of their local infrastructure/ system for monitoring the quality of the GPS/EGNOS service provided over the country area


Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions – Benefits (1)

Direct benefits consider the economic revenues for each state directly resulting from civil aviation activities. Their estimation is done by applying to the identified tax base (the value of the foreseen investments) the relevant country tax profile


Indirect/ social benefits are evaluated by using the shadow price methodology applied in METIS, with further elaborations, specifically tailored on civil aviation and customized for each country (to take into accounts the relevant specificities). Evaluation varies from:–number of landings–GDP–benefit importance using the impacts prioritization and ranking (air transport services quality and demand, industrial benefits, environmental benefits, strategic benefits)

Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions – Benefits (2)


Economical feasibilityOutput example – sensitivity

Dependence of the economic feasibility from key parameters, to:–Take into account of the assumptions–Support the definition of actions

Min/max+5 years+/- growth+/-1 %


Action planOpportunities

Recommendations

Proposed actions, actors, and timing


Algeria (1)

Algeria base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2012-2021) (M€)

Air transport services quality and demand,

0,3

Industrial benefits, 0,2

Environmental benefits, 0,2

Strategic benefits, 0,3


Algeria (2)

Delta NPV vs base case (13.0 M€)

-8,0 -6,0 -4,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0

Delta EGNOS opex

Delta traffi c

Delta discount rate

Delta year of adoption

M€

Worst case Best case


Côte d'Ivoire (1)

Côte d’Ivoire base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2015-2021) (M€)

Industrial benefits; 0,12

Environmental benefits; 0,02

Strategic benefits; 0,06


Côte d'Ivoire (2)

Delta NPV vs base case (-0.2 M€)

-0,08 -0,06 -0,04 -0,02 0,00 0,02

Delta EGNOS opex

Delta traffic

Delta discount rate


M€


Gabon (1)

Gabon base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2015-2021) (M€)

Industrial benefits; 0,99Environmental

benefits; 0,25



Gabon (2)


-1,80 -1,60 -1,40 -1,20 -1,00 -0,80 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40

Delta EGNOS opex

Delta traffi c

Delta discount rate


M€


Jordan (1)

Jordan base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2012-2021) (M€)

Air transport services quality and demand;

0,06





Jordan (2)


-1,3 -1,1 -0,9 -0,7 -0,5 -0,3 -0,1 0,2

Delta EGNOS opex

Delta traffi c

Delta discount rate


M€



Mauritania (1)

Mauritania base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2015-2021) (M€)





Mauritania (2)


-0,07 -0,06 -0,05 -0,04 -0,03 -0,02 -0,01 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,03

Delta EGNOS opex

Delta traffi c

Delta discount rate


M€


Morocco (1)

Morocco base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2012-2021) (M€)



0,6




Morocco (2)Delta NPV vs base case (9.7 M€)

-6,0 -5,0 -4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0

Delta EGNOS opex

Delta traffic

Delta discount rate


M€



Saudi Arabia (1)

Saudi Arabia base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2018-2021) (M€)



0,6



Saudi Arabia (2)


-30,0 -25,0 -20,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0

Delta EGNOS opex

Delta discount rate

Delta traffic


M€


Senegal (1)

Senegal base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2015-2021) (M€)





Senegal (2)


-0,25 -0,20 -0,15 -0,10 -0,05 0,00 0,05

Delta EGNOS opex

Delta traffi c

Delta discount rate


M€


Main outcomes –Key messages (1)

Heterogeneous state-of-play and strategies:– Different Conference/Commissions, ICAO Regions and

Regional Groups– Sub-regional/ bilateral agreements for some countries

(e.g. AEFMP, EMCAA, cooperations)– ICAO Regional Groups responsible for strategies for

GNSS– Each State responsible for implementation



Heterogeneous service needs, in terms of:– Market needs (air traffic movements/ trends)– GNSS based operations implementation/ adoption (e.g.

GNSS RNAV/RNP approaches)– Awareness/ knowledge (e.g. questionnaire feeding)– Interest– Status/ plan of implementation of ICAO Regional

Groups strategy



Tool for countries and EU Results to be evaluated under regional considerations Robustness depends on the assumptions Re-elaboration/review the assumptions as long as they are

defined/understood:– Plan time lag– EGNOS costs/FOC– Traffic (direct benefits)– Impact/economical parameters (indirect benefits)– Airports implementation/evolution– Cost sharing/allocation


Main outcomes –Recommendations (1)

Consolidate EGNOS service coverage in terms of technical, economical and planning aspects, programmatic/institutional/legal framework

Only in few cases EGNOS costs have a significant impact on the CBA

The delay in adoption has a significant impact on the CBA in all cases (*)

(*) Recommendation is to anticipate development of enablers to reduce the delay of adoption, including implementation of strategy


Thank you!

Antonella Di Fazio

[email protected]

Documents

GNSS National implementation plans