Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for …...Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for Oilseeds, Oils and Meals Presentation at the Australian Grains Industry Conference on

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Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook

for Oilseeds, Oils and Meals

Presentation at the Australian Grains Industry Conference on 2 Aug 2017 in Melbourne

Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke, Oil World,Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals

Please feel free to contact me for assistance at <[email protected]>


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§ ISTA Mielke GmbH – publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958 § ISTA = International STatistical Agricultural Information§ Leading private authority for global research and market analyses for

oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals § Independent, not involved in trading, unbiased information § Providing monthly and quarterly world supply and demand balances

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Company Profil and Services


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Monthly Prices from Jan 1973 until 20 July 2017 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

0200400600800

1000120014001600

Palm oil crudeRape oil

cif Rotterdam in US-$ / MTMonthly Prices of 2 Oils

Palm oil is thePrice Leader for Oils and Fats Worldwide


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The Global Market

The Overall Target is the Satisfaction of Demand (mainly for food; biodiesel may have to be curbed)

The major drivers for production are to be seenin the demand and in prices.

Prices have to be sufficiently attractive forproducers to invest and expand.


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Price

Governments

Demand

Financial Markets& Funds

Weather

Media

Supply


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Soybeans 62%

Rapeseed 11%

Sunseed 9%

Cottonseed 7%

Groundnuts 5%

Copra & Palmkernels 4%

Other 3 Oilseeds 2%

2017/18 -- 557.3 Mn T

Other ctries 14%

EU-28 6%

C.I.S. 8%

Canada & U.S.A. 27%

Brazil 20%

Argentina 11%China 8%India 6%

10 Oilseeds - - 557.3 Mn T

Global Production of 10 OilseedsGlobal Impacts fromOilseeds

Ample supplies currentlyprimarily of soybeans, and also in 2017/18,

Unless US droughtdamage aggravates

Many Uncertainties and Swing Factors will determine Prices


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91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 13/14 17/18F100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600Production (Mn T)Area (Mn ha)

10 Oilseeds: World Area and Production

Most of the growth in soybeans

In 20 yearsworld soybean outputmore than doubled from158 Mn T in 1996/97 toan estimated 349 Mn T in 2016/17


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99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18F100120140160180200220240260280300320340

10 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T)

Soybeans

Other 9 oilseeds

In 2016/17 boost in Soybean production: World 349 Mn T (+38)

USA 117 Mn T (+10)

S. America 186 Mn (+21)

Decline aniticipated for2017/18. But it is, ofcourse, still uncertain byhow much?


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95/9697/98

99/00 01/02

03/04 05/06

07/08 09/10

11/12 13/14

15/1617/18F

5075

100125150175200225250275300325350

World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)SOYBEANS

Harvested Area

Production

High likelihood that worldproduction of soybeanswill decline in 2017/18.

But even if world outputdeclines by about 5 Mn T to around 343 Mn T nextseason, it would still beenough to cover prospectiveconsumption.


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80/8183/84

86/87 89/90

92/9395/96

98/99 01/02

04/05 07/08

10/1113/14

16/17

020406080

100120140160180200

Soybean Crop TrendMn T

U.S.A.

Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay

Soybeans have lost attractiveness in South America. In Argentinaplanted area may declineto a 6-year low of 18.9 Mn ha in 2017/18.

Reduced productionanticipated in the USA and S.America in 2017/18


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U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t

17/18F 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 Op. stocks . . . 11.50* 5.35 5.19 2.50 3.83 Crop. . . . . . . . 113.00* 117.21 106.86 106.88 91.39 Imports . . . . . .70* .67* .66 .93 2.10

Exports . . . . . 56.00* 56.90* 52.92 50.20 44.65 Crushings . . . 52.80* 51.30* 51.33 51.16* 47.38* Other use 3.40* 3.53* 3.10 3.77* 2.77*

End. stocks . . 13.00* 11.50* 5.35 5.19 2.50

Stocks/usage 11.6% 10.3% 5.0% 4.9% 2.6%

U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t

17/18F 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 Op. stocks . . . 11.50* 5.35 5.19 2.50 3.83 Crop. . . . . . . . 113.00* 117.21 106.86 106.88 91.39 Imports . . . . . .70* .67* .66 .93 2.10

Exports . . . . . 56.00* 56.90* 52.92 50.20 44.65 Crushings . . . 52.80* 51.30* 51.33 51.16* 47.38* Other use 3.40* 3.53* 3.10 3.77* 2.77*

End. stocks . . 13.00* 11.50* 5.35 5.19 2.50

Stocks/usage 11.6% 10.3% 5.0% 4.9% 2.6%

US soybean production isforecast to decline toaround 113 Mn T (down 4.2 Mn T).

We expect an averageyield of 3.15 T/ha in 2017 (or 46.8 bu/acre), off 10%. On Jly 30 about 59% G/E versus 72% last year.

USDA release on Aug 10.

US exports to decline in Sept/Febr 2017/18, due torecord S. Amer. supplies


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Daily futures from 2 Jan 2017 until 25 July 2017Ja17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly

900

920

940

960

980

1000

1020

1040

1060

Nov 201750-day moving average

CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)


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Soybean Trade Flows in 2016

Exports Imports

USA (43%)

Paraguay & Uruguay (6%)

Brazil (38%)

Argentina (7%)

Ukraine (2%)

EU-28 (11%)

China (62%)

Mexico (3%)Other Asia(17%)


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(a) Crushings, food and other use in Aug/July. 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17

0102030405060708090

100CHINA: Soybean Demand and Share of Imports

Mn T

Imports

Total Use (a)

Chinese soybean imports will probably not increase in 2017/18, because

1) Current stocks are record large and 2-3 Mn T above a year ago, and

2) this year’s domestic output is seen at 15.0 Mn T, up 3.2 Mn T


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1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F0

20

40

60

80

100

120Soybeans: World Stocks as of end-August (Mn T)Ample world soybean

supplies, if our currentcrop estimatesmaterialize.

Record stocks.

But weather uncertainties

One additional swing factor to watch: Farmer sellingFarmers have built larger storage. New market factor


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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 00/01

01/02 02/03

03/04 04/05

05/06 06/07

07/08 08/09

09/1010/11

11/12 12/13

13/1414/15

15/1616/17

17/18F80

100120140160180200220240260280300

10 Oilseeds : World Crushings (Mn T)

9 other seeds

Soybeans

Further boost in worldsoybean crushings required in 2016/17 andin 2017/18 (up 12-13 Mn T in each year), mainlybecause of1) rising demand2) insufficient supplies ofother seeds, and3) low stocks of veg oils

This is creating a surplusin oilmeals

Argentine and Indian crushings curbed by lack of meal demand


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08/09 09/10

10/11 11/12

12/1313/14

14/1515/16

16/1717/18

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Change from a Year Ago (Mn T)

7 Oilseeds: World Production


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7 OILSEEDS: World Supply and Demand ( Mn T )

Forecast Change 2017/18F to 16/17 16/17 15/16 14/15

Opening stocks 114.0 +21.5 92.5 97.2 77.5 Production . . . . . . . . 548.2* - 3.3 551.5 501.7 521.7

thereof soybeans 343.1* - 6.4 349.5 311.2 320.0 Sunseed . . . . . . . . 48.1* - 0.9 49.0 42.9 41.3 Rapeseed . . . . . . . 63.4* +0.1 63.3 64.2 67.0 Cottonseed . . . . . . 41.5* +2.3 39.2 37.1 45.3 Groundnuts (b) . . . 30.4* +0.1 30.3 28.0 27.8 Palmkern & Copra 21.7* +1.6 20.1 18.4 20.2

Total supplies . . . . . 662.2* +18.2 644.0 598.9 599.2

Disappearance. . . . . 548.2* +18.2 530.0* 506.4 502.0 thereof soybeans 343.1* +14.3 328.8* 315.6 298.7 Sunseed . . . . . . . . 48.1* - 0.6 48.7* 42.6 41.2 Rapeseed . . . . . . . 63.8* +0.3 63.5* 64.1 68.5

Ending stocks . . . . . 114.0* +/- 0 114.0* 92.5 97.2 thereof soybeans 100.4* +/- 0 100.4* 79.7 84.0

7 OILSEEDS: World Supply and Demand ( Mn T )

Forecast Change 2017/18F to 16/17 16/17 15/16 14/15

Opening stocks 114.0 +21.5 92.5 97.2 77.5 Production . . . . . . . . 548.2* - 3.3 551.5 501.7 521.7

thereof soybeans 343.1* - 6.4 349.5 311.2 320.0 Sunseed . . . . . . . . 48.1* - 0.9 49.0 42.9 41.3 Rapeseed . . . . . . . 63.4* +0.1 63.3 64.2 67.0 Cottonseed . . . . . . 41.5* +2.3 39.2 37.1 45.3 Groundnuts (b) . . . 30.4* +0.1 30.3 28.0 27.8 Palmkern & Copra 21.7* +1.6 20.1 18.4 20.2

Total supplies . . . . . 662.2* +18.2 644.0 598.9 599.2

Disappearance. . . . . 548.2* +18.2 530.0* 506.4 502.0 thereof soybeans 343.1* +14.3 328.8* 315.6 298.7 Sunseed . . . . . . . . 48.1* - 0.6 48.7* 42.6 41.2 Rapeseed . . . . . . . 63.8* +0.3 63.5* 64.1 68.5

Ending stocks . . . . . 114.0* +/- 0 114.0* 92.5 97.2 thereof soybeans 100.4* +/- 0 100.4* 79.7 84.0


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95/9697/98

99/00 01/02

03/04 05/06

07/08 09/10

11/1213/14

15/1617/18F

10152025303540455055606570

World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)RAPESEED & CANOLA

Harvested Area

Production

World supplies of rapeseed & canola will remain tight in 2017/18, contrary to earlier expectations of a recovery

Rapeseed production only at 63-64 Mn T in 2017/18

In Europe farmers losing interest in rapeseed.

Biggest losses in -Canada 18.6 Mn (vs 19.25)-Australia at best 3.9 (4.4)-China less than 6.0 Mn T


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A u g u s t / J u l y 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/1702468

1012141618202224 Exports Crush

Canada: Canola Disposals (Mn T)CANADA : Supply & Demand of Canola ( Mn T )

A u g u s t / J u l y17/18F 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14

Op. stocks .95* 2.02 2.54 2.82* .59 Output . . . . . 18.60* 19.25* 18.38 16.41 18.55 Imports . . . . .09* .09* .10 .08 .07 Exports . . . . 9.60* 10.90* 10.30* 9.14 9.18 Crushings . . 8.70* 9.11* 8.32 7.36 6.98 Other use. . . .34* .39* .38* .26* .23*End.stocks. . 1.00* .95* 2.02 2.54 2.82*

.09* .10 .07 10.90* 10.30* 9.18

.95* 2.02 2.82*

CANADA : Supply & Demand of Canola ( Mn T )A u g u s t / J u l y

17/18F 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 Op. stocks .95* 2.02 2.54 2.82* .59 Output . . . . . 18.60* 19.25* 18.38 16.41 18.55 Imports . . . . .09* .09* .10 .08 .07 Exports . . . . 9.60* 10.90* 10.30* 9.14 9.18 Crushings . . 8.70* 9.11* 8.32 7.36 6.98 Other use. . . .34* .39* .38* .26* .23*End.stocks. . 1.00* .95* 2.02 2.54 2.82*

.09* .10 .07 10.90* 10.30* 9.18

.95* 2.02 2.82*


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95/9697/98

99/00 01/02

03/04 05/06

07/08 09/10

11/1213/14

15/1617/18F

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)

SUNFLOWERSEED

Harvested Area

Production

All-time records in world supplies of sunflowerseed and oil helped to moderate the impact of insufficient supplies of palm oil in Oct/June 2016/17,

In Oct/Sept 2016/17 world exports of sun oil set to be boosted by 1.8 Mn T to a record 10.2 Mn T

Sun oil prices below those of soy oil in past 10 months. This is likely to change in 2017/18


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89/9092/93

95/9698/99

01/02 04/05

07/0810/11

13/1416/17F

020406080

100120140160180200220

biofuel food and other

Total Usage in Mn T17 Oils & Fats : World Consumption

Average demandgrowth in past 5 seasons:

Total +6.5 Mn T per year

Biofuel +1.7 Mn T Food/other +4.8 Mn T

Substantial Growth in World Demand of Oils/Fats ! !


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28.4 kg

Per capita consumption of Oils & Fats 2016

64.467.2

43.1

26.5 25.2 24.5

17.5 15.6 15 14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80(Kg)

Inflated by biofuel usage


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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 20170

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40World Production of Biodiesel (Mn T)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

2

4

6

8

10

12Biodiesel Use of Major Feedstock (Mn T)

Palm oil

Soya oilRape oil

Used oil

Tallow

Others

Outlook Biodiesel and HVO


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Monthly prices from Jan 2003 until 20 July 2017Ja03 Ja04Ja05 Ja06 Ja07Ja08 Ja09 Ja10Ja11 Ja12Ja13 Ja14 Ja15Ja16 Ja17

100250400550700850

1000115013001450

RBD palm olein, fob MalaysiaSoya oil, Arg., fobCrude mineral oil

Monthly Prices (US-$/T)


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Soya Oil 24,6%Palm Oil 30,3%

Rape Oil 11,6%

Sun Oil 8,5%

PKO&CNO 4,4%

Others/An.Fats 20,6%

2016/17 -- 215.9 Mn T

Soya Oil 20,9%

Palm Oil 17,5%

Rape Oil 11,5%

Sun Oil 9,1%

PKO&CNO 5,3%

Others/An.Fats 35,7%

1996/97 -- 100.0 Mn TWorld Production of 17 Oils & Fats


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Importance of palm oil in global oils & fats market

Palm oil


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Current labour shortageis likely to reduce palmoil yields and OER‘s (oilextraction rates) belowpotential:

Longer harvest intervals, less loose-fruit collectionand delayed replanting

In the 10 years to 2016 wages for Malaysianplantation employeeshave increased by about100-130%, significantlyraising production costs!


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19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70MalaysiaIndonesiaRest of World

in Major Countries (Mn T) Palm Oil Production 1980 - 2017

Effects of El Nino

2016:-6% = -3.9 Mn T

1998:-5% = -0.8 Mn T


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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 09/10

10/1111/12

12/13 13/14

14/1515/16

16/17-4-202468

10121416

Production Supplies (op. stocks+prod.)Consumption

Change From Year Ago in Mn T17 OILS & FATS: Output, Supplies & Use


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E n d - S e p t e m b e r2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1617 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage

Stocks/Usage (%)

Stocks Mn T

Replenishment ofveg oil stocks will take time

and will not bepossible in 2016/17


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95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7017 OILS & FATS : World Production (Mn T)

Sun oil

Rape oil

Soya oil

Palm oil

9 Other oils

4 Animal Fats

The Dominance of Palm Oil - - grown on only 5% of Global Veg Oil Area

01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F05

101520253035404550

Soy, Rape, Sun Oils4 Animal FatsPalm Oil 9 Other

17 OILS & FATS : World Exports (Mn T)


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The Success Story of the past 30 Years§ Substantial growth in world production of palm oil§ In 1980: 4.6 Mn T or 8% of 17 oils & fats§ In 1990: 11.0 Mn T or 14% § In 2000: 21.9 Mn T or 19%§ In 2010: 46.2 Mn T or 27%

§ In 2015: 62.8 Mn T or 30% (only 5% of area)§ In 2016: 58.9 Mn T (plus 6.4 Mn T of Palmkern oil)

§ In 2025 about 85 Mn T of palm oil required globally (of which Malaysia 24.0 and Indonesia 47.0 Mn T)


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Trade of 17 Oils & Fats in 2016

Exports Imports

EU-28 (14%)

China (10%)India (18%)

USA (6%)North Africa (5%)

Malaysia (22%)

Indonesia (32%)

Argentina (8%)

Russia & Ukraine (8%)


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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017J/M A/J J/S O/DJ/M A/J J/S O/DJ/M A/J J/S O/DJ/M A/J J/S O/DJ/M A/J J/S O/D

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

ProductionConsumption

PALM OIL: Quarterly World Production & UsMn T

In 2016: Severeproductiondeficit

Big reductionof stocks


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Jan/June July/Dec12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

2015 2016 2017

INDONESIA : Palm Oil Output (Mn T)

15.6

13.9

18.2

17.1

18.517.8

Jan/June July/Dec6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2015 2016 2017

MALAYSIA : Palm Oil Output (Mn T)

9.0

9.7

8.7

11.110.9

7.6

In 2017 already 70% of the global production growth occurred in Jan/June, with Indonesia up 3.2 Mn T and Malaysia up 1.1 Mn T from year ago


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PALM OIL : World Production ( Mn T ) and Yields ( T/ha ) P r o d u c t i o n Y i e l d s

2018F 2017F 2016 2015 2018F 2017F 2016 2015 Indonesia 38.00* 35.60* 32.10* 33.40* 3.79* 3.70* 3.51* 3.87*Malaysia 21.00* 19.86* 17.32 19.96 4.06* 3.92* 3.51* 4.18*

C&S America 4.75* 4.57* 4.04* 3.82* 3.19* 3.19* 2.99* 3.04*Africa 2.65* 2.55* 2.44* 2.38* 1.70* 1.68* 1.65* 1.66*

Oth ctrs. 3.54* 3.47* 3.00* 3.24* 2.58* 2.61* 2.29* 2.57*WORLD 69.94* 66.05* 58.90 62.80 3.57* 3.48* 3.24 3.62

PALM OIL : World Production ( Mn T ) and Yields ( T/ha ) P r o d u c t i o n Y i e l d s

2018F 2017F 2016 2015 2018F 2017F 2016 2015 Indonesia 38.00* 35.60* 32.10* 33.40* 3.79* 3.70* 3.51* 3.87*Malaysia 21.00* 19.86* 17.32 19.96 4.06* 3.92* 3.51* 4.18*

C&S America 4.75* 4.57* 4.04* 3.82* 3.19* 3.19* 2.99* 3.04*Africa 2.65* 2.55* 2.44* 2.38* 1.70* 1.68* 1.65* 1.66*

Oth ctrs. 3.54* 3.47* 3.00* 3.24* 2.58* 2.61* 2.29* 2.57*WORLD 69.94* 66.05* 58.90 62.80 3.57* 3.48* 3.24 3.62

World production seen up by 7.1 Mn T in 2017 and by 3.9 in 2018. Stocks of palm oil still down by 3.6 Mn T from year ago as of 1 Jan 2017.

Yields still relatively low+7.1 Mn+3.9 Mn -3.9 Mn T


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At the end of the season2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

17 oils & fats10 oilseeds

World Stocks in Percent of Annual Usage (%)

Oilseeds: sideways orbearish, unless more weatherproblems occur

Oils & fats: At the end ofthe 2016/17 season, stocks still be low relative to annual consumption.

A second year (2017/18) without severe weatherproblems is required tobring oils & fats stocks tomore comfortable levels.

But this is a slow process.

Concluding Statements


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E n d - S e p t e m b e r2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1617 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage

Stocks/Usage (%)

Stocks Mn T

Replenishment ofveg oil stocks will take time

and will not bepossible in 2016/17


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June July JAS OND JFM AMJ560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720nearby and deferred in US-$/T

RBD Palm Olein, fob Malaysia, June 2

108 $ inverse

Have we alreadyseen the lows forthe calendar year?

At prices below oraround US-$ 600 price-sensitive buyers alreadycovered at least part of theirrequirements


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Aug Sept OND JFM AMJ560

580

600

620

640nearby and deferred in US-$/T

RBD Palm Olein, fob Malaysia, July 24

The deferred positionsstrengthened, due to

- a slowing down of theproduction growth,

- still low stocks in many ctries,

- strong palm oildemand


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Daily prices from 1 Jan 2016 until 24 July 2017Ja16 Feb Apr Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Ja17 Mar Apr May Jun

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900Daily Prices of 2 Oils (in US-$/T)

RBD palm olein, fob Malaysia

Soya oil, fob Arg.

Palm olein currentlyabout US $ 100 belowsoya oil

Additional downwardmomentum is limited. But it cannot be excludedthat palm olein temporarily falls to orslightly below US $ 600 within the next 3-5 months.


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Prices from 3 Mayl 2016 until 25 July 2017May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly

220023002400250026002700280029003000310032003300

First position in Malaysian Ringgit/TMALAYSIA: Crude Palm Oil Futures Close Most of the bearishness in

the palm oil outlook isalready discounted.

There is still somedownward potential ifproduction in Jul/Oct 2017 comes up to expectations.

But additional pricereductions should belimited. I currently don‘texpect the first position tofall below 2300 Ringgit in Oct/Dec 2017.


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Thank Youfor Your Kind Attention !

© Copyright 2017 ISTA Mielke GmbH. This information is destined for internal use only. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of the proprietary content without the prior written consent of ISTA Mielke GmbH is prohibited. Any violation of our copyright will be PROSECUTED. The information and analyses given in this service are considered to be reliable. Every care is taken to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the contents. We cannot, however, accept any responsibility for them nor for the accuracy of our forecasts and opinions or any liability for the subscriber’s use.Kindly visit us on www.oilworld.de For further information you may call +49 40 76105021

Documents

Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for …...Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for Oilseeds, Oils and Meals Presentation at the Australian Grains Industry Conference on