Global SOFI Applications

MPCC 2009

Two Scenarios Assumed

• Using available data through 2007-08 (essentially a repeat of 2007 SOFI since recession did not yet appear in data).

• An assumed recession lastng ten years but not as deep as the Great Depression.

Driver for Recession Scenario: Percent Global Unemployment

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12Y

1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

ILO: 7.1% (2009)

The No Recession Case

The Recession Case

Some Recession Scenario TIA’s

Improved and estimated to continue to improve despite recession

2. Literacy rate, adult total ((percent of people aged 15 and above)4. School enrollment, secondary (% gross)6. Countries having or thought to have plans for nuclear weapons9. GDP per unit of energy use10. Number of Major Armed Conflicts (number of deaths >1,000)11. Population growth (annual %)20. Physicians (per 1,000 people)21. Internet Users (per 1,000 pop)22. Infant Mortality (deaths per 1,000 births)24 Life Expectancy at Birth (years) (but possibly leveling off)25. Women in Parliaments (percent of all members)

Improved in the past two decades with some risk of future reversal

1. Improved water source (% of population with access)5. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) low and mid income countries12. R&D Expenditures (% of national budget)14. Clean Energy (percent of total energy supply)15. Food availability (cal/cap)16. Population in Countries that are Free (percent of total global population)18. GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)26. Number of Refugees (per 100,000 total population)

Worsened in the past two decades but may reverse trend toward the better

19. People Voting in Elections (% population of voting age)23. Forest Lands (% of all land area)28. Prevalence of HIV (% of population 15-49) (post 1998)

Worsened in the past two decades and will continue to worsen

3. Levels of Corruption (15 largest countries)7. CO2 emissions (global, kt)8. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)13. People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number)17. Global Surface Temperature Anomalies 27. Total debt service (% of GNI) low and mid income

Next Steps• Collect other assumptions about the depth and

length of the recession– use these to form scenarios that replace the single

scenario of the current study • Search for beneficial policies and strategies using

economic element study (and other) results.• Collect judgments to determine how best to

introduce SOFI into decision processes.• Orient the work toward national recession scenarios