Population and Development

Discussion pointWhat is the pattern of population growth in the world?How does population growth stimulate the development? Briefly explain in terms of Keynes and Lewis model.What are the causes of population growth? Will population continue to increase in the world?What are the consequences of increasing life expectancy and aging in the developing world?Why will the population of underdeveloped countries be higher in 2050? Why will it decrease in Europe and other developed countries?What are the demographic characteristics of Bangladesh? Case studies: Causes of population growth in Bangladesh and Population as asset or liability in Bangladesh

Population Growth Was Very Slow in the Earlier Years of Human Existence, but Has Accelerated in the Past 250 YearsSource: Population Reference Bureau estimates and projections; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (2009).

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.Stages of Demographic Transition

*Women worldwide are having fewer children in their lifetimes, from an average of five children born per woman in the 1950s to below three in 2000. All of the most recent projections put forth by the UN assume that levels of childbearing will continue to decline in the next century.

WORLD POPULATION OUTLOOK 1950-2050Total population 2010 is 6.90 billion and for 2050 will reach 9.08 billionIn spite of higher population for the future, the growth rate of the population is expected to fall due to the decline in fertility rate and the toll taken by the HIV/AIDS pandemic in some countries.However, the death rate declined and the causes of death changed towards Cancer and Cardiovascular diseases.Fertility rate decline family planningIncreasing population but decrease in average annual growth rate. e.g. 1.1% in 2009, but 0.43% to 0% in 2050

*Global Population GrowthA Developing Country PhenomenonSource: United Nations Populations Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision, medium variant.Developing countriesDeveloped countries

Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150 MillionsBillions BillionsAnnual incrementsPopulation sizeSource: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)No population explosion after 2050!!

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10.25099319

3.78369459

5.74389573

7.79689746

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TABLE 1. WORLD POPULATION ACCORDING TOVARIOUS PROJECTIONSCENARIOS, 1995-2150

Projection scenario

Year or period

Instantreplacement

Low Low-medium Medium High-mediumHighConstant

Population (millions)

Instant replacementLowLow-mediumMediumHigh-mediumHighConstant

1995 ......................5,6665,6665,6665,6665,6665,6665,666100Annual Increment

2000 ......................5,9626,0286,0286,0556,0826,0826,11320006,05580.5315

2025 ......................7,4247,2757,2757,8248,3798,3799,06920257,82465.7216

2050 ......................8,3107,3437,5478,90910,40910,67414,42120508,90930.2906

2075 ......................8,6636,4027,0249,31912,02613,14926,04820759,31910.2509

2100 ......................8,9245,1536,3249,45913,43016,17852,50821009,4593.7836

2125 ......................9,1424,0745,7799,57314,73519,986113,30221259,5735.7438

2150 ......................9,3493,2365,3299,74616,21824,83425,84621509,7467.7968

Growth rates (per year)

1995-2000 ............. 1.01.021.241.241.331.421.421.52

2020-2025 ............. 0.70.710.50.50.841.171.171.65

2045-2050 ............. 0.20.29-0.23-0.070.340.690.872.02

2070-2075 ............. 0.10.13-0.73-0.390.110.510.832.57

2095-2100 ............. 0.10.11-0.92-0.40.040.40.832.93

2120-2125 ............. 0.00.09-0.93-0.340.060.370.863.16

2145-2150 ............. 0.00.09-0.92-0.320.080.390.873.32

Source: Values for 1995-2050 forthe low, medium, high and constant scenarios were obtained from World Population

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Population growth and Development

POPULATION OUTLOOK BY REGION 1950-2050World population growth will be concentrated in developing countries for the foreseeable futurePopulation for Asia, Africa, Sub Saharan Africa, Middle East, North America and South America will increase substantiallyPopulation for European countries and Former Soviet Union tends to fall for the foreseeable futureNot much different for the population for Oceania and Baltic region

Europe is the only world region projected to decline in population by 2050.Millions

*

Ageing and related problemThe world's elderly population (60 +) is the fastest growing age group. By 2050 about 80% of the elderly will be living in developing countries Elder abuse is on the increase as the social dynamics change.

physical, psychological, emotional, financial due to neglect.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Period90

80

70

60

50

40

30Expectation of life at birth (years)

More developedWorldLess developedLeast developedSource: Population division of the Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, United States Secretariat (2003). World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations.Life expectancy trends and Aging

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Population of Bangladesh, Growth Rate per Annum and Density Per Sq. Km. Area, 1700- 2011Sources: M. Obaidullah, n.d.; Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1994 and 2011. *

YearPopulation(in million)Growth rateDensity per Sq. Km.170017501770180018501881189119011911192119311941195119611974198119912001201117191517202527293233364244557690111131142-0.20-1.200.400.300.900.800.690.940.600.741.700.502.262.482.322.171.541.34------196214225241285299374518609755876936964

The historical trend of population growth rate suggests that the estimated population of 17 million in 1700 took 230 years to double in 1931.

The second doubling took only 43 years, i.e., the population of 1931 doubled its size in 1974.

Third doubling occurred in just about 30 years in 2005.

Most Populous Countries with Density, 2010 & 2050Source: PRB, 2010 World Population Data Sheet, BBS 2011, and Mabud 2009

20102050 Country Population (millions) PopulationDensity/Sq. Km. Country Population (millions) China1,338140India1,748India1,189362China1,437United States31032United States423Indonesia235124Pakistan335Brazil19323Nigeria326Pakistan185232Indonesia309Nigeria 158171Bangladesh226Bangladesh142964Brazil215Russia1428Ethiopia174Japan127337Congo. Demo. Rep.166

Percentage Distribution of the Population by Broad Age Groups and Dependency Ratio, 1911-2005Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1994 and 1999 and 2006*

YearBroad Age GroupsDependency Ratio0-14 Yrs.15-59 Yrs.60+ Yrs.191142.353.34.488192142.353.64.1S7193141.954.93.282194141.455.13.5S2195142.253.54.487196146.048.85.2105197448.046.35.7116198146.747.85.5109199145.149.55.4102200139.454.95.776200537.955.96.279

Ageing Situation in Bangladesh

YearTotal Population (in million)Population (60+)% of the total2001130.027.976.02006141.808.496.12011151.419.776.52016160.9911.327.02021171.7114.108.22026182.2418.079.92031191.6122.1511.62036199.5227.3413.72041206.4631.8915.42046212.8536.9317.42051218.6444.1020.2

Declining Fertility

Year, SourceTFR1960-62, NIS1963-65, NIS1966-68, NIS1975, BFS1983, CPS1985, CPS1989, CPS1991, CPS1993-1994, BDHS1996-1997, BDHS1999-2000, BDHS2004, BDHS2007, BDHS2010, BMMS7.67.06.06.34.944.614.884.263.403.303.303.002.702.5

Trends in total fertility rate

*Rapid decline in fertility over last 30 yearsIn fact, the Total Fertility rate has been reduced by half since 1971.Notice, however, the general decline followed by a plateauing in the last 10 years.

Demographic Profile of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated country in the world, 1,237.51 persons per square kilometer. (Based on the CIA World Fact Book 2012 ) Male and female ratio is 104: 100 Rural population higher than urban population (73:37) Total civilian labor force was about 76 million, About 45 percent labor force is engaged in agricultural activities Unemployment rate increased to 5.1 per cent in 2009 that does not reflect severity, except looking the under-employment rate of 28.7 per cent. (Total 33.8 percent) Per capita income in Bangladesh :1044 USD (Source:Daily Star Sept5, 2013)

Demographics of BangladeshCurrent Population:161,083,804 (CIA World Fact Book 2013, July 2012 estimate ) Population growth rate:1.579% (2012 est.)Birth rate:22.53 births/1,000 population (2012 est.)Death rate:5.71 deaths/1,000 population (July 2012 est.)Life expectancy:70.06 years (2013 est.)male: 68.21 years female:71.98 years (2012 est.)Fertility rate:2.55 children born/woman (2012 est.)Infant mortality rate:48.99 deaths/1,000 live births

Growth Rate of Urban Population 1901-2008Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2009.

Census YearPopulation (million)PercentAverage Annual Growth Rate1901.702.43-1911.812.551.391921.882.640.8519311.073.022.0019411.543.663.5919511.824.331.6919612.645.193.7519746.278.786.62198113.2315.1810.63199122.4620.155.43200128.6123.103.15200836.3125.103.37

Dhaka Compared to Other Urban Agglomerations in 2010 and 2025

RankAgglomeration 2010 Population(million)RankAgglomeration2025Population(million)1.Tokyo36.71.Tokyo37.12.Delhi22.22.Delhi28.63.Sao Paulo20.33.Mumbai25.84.Mumbai20.04.Sao Paulo21.75.Mexico City19.55.Dhaka20.96.New York19.46.Mexico City20.77.Shanghai16.67.New York20.68.Kolkata15.68.Kolkata20.19.Dhaka15.09.Shanghai20.010.Karachi13.110.Karachi18.7

*Women worldwide are having fewer children in their lifetimes, from an average of five children born per woman in the 1950s to below three in 2000. All of the most recent projections put forth by the UN assume that levels of childbearing will continue to decline in the next century.

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*Rapid decline in fertility over last 30 yearsIn fact, the Total Fertility rate has been reduced by half since 1971.Notice, however, the general decline followed by a plateauing in the last 10 years.