Global and National Trends in Higher Education Damtew TEFERRA, Ph. D. Professor of Higher Education Leader, Higher Education Training and Development Founding

Global and National Trends in Higher

Education

Damtew TEFERRA, Ph. D.

Professor of Higher EducationLeader, Higher Education Training and Development

Founding Director, International Network for Higher Education in Africa

University of Kwazulu-Natal—Boston College

25 July 2014Programme for the University Councils Training Workshop:

Kwazulu-Natal RegionWestville Campus

University of Kwazulu-Natal

Contemporary Trends

• ‘Massification’• Funding• Privatization• Internationalization• Quality• Mobility• Un(der)employment• Policy dimension

‘Massification’

• Since 2000, post-Secondary enrollments have increased from 100 million to well over 150 million (2008)

• Global enrollment expected to increase to 520 million in 2035

• In 2035 North America and Western Europe—52 million

• East Asia and the Pacific enrollment to exceed 100 million by 2020; and 200 million between 2033/34; 42% global enrollments

• Africa: Estimated 10 million currently

• South Africa: Estimated 1.6 million by 2025

ProfileCountry /region

No. Institutions

Population Enrollment (%)

United States 4,800 300 million 50

China 5,000 1.4 billion 22

India 504 [20,000]

1.4 billion 10

South Africa 23 [115] 50 million 17

Brazil 186 190 million 11 [27]

Africa 1,500+ 900 million 6

Higher Education Enrollment: Malawi

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

MaleFemaletotal

Higher Education Enrollment: Uganda

Total and Graduate Enrollment: Ethiopia

1999/2000

2000/2001

2001/2002

2002/2003

2003/2004

2004/2005

2005/2006

2006/2007

2007/2008

2008/2009

2009/2010

2010/2011

2011/2012

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Funding

• With very few exception funding HE is on the decline

• Free HE education is in decline; tuition fee is in the increase (local and international students)

• Public institutions—as low as 15 percent (US): Privatization of public institutions

• EU27: expenditure from public sources on HE as a percentage of GDP —1.13. (Highest DK c. 2.25; NOR c. 2.1 to Lithuania c. 0.2) (Eurostat: 2006)

Funding

• The United States and Japan: c. 1.45 and 0.6

• The highest spenders are Scandinavian countries: DK, NORW, FINL and SWDN

• South Africa:

– Expenditure should be boosted by 40% (in 2007 levels) and an additional R3 billion invested annually in RD in HEI to be in par with World Average (UWN 315: 2014)

– Plan to meet 1% GDP for R&D failed; 0.87% (2009-10)

Funding: R and D

UWN: 269, 2013

Country Investment as % of GDP

Year Trend

Brazil 1.17 2009 Increasing

China >1 2008 Increasing

India 0.88 2008 Increasing

Russia 1.25 2009 Increasing

South Africa

0.87 2010 Decreasing

Funding: United States

Percentage change in state spending per student, inflation adjusted, FY08-FY13. cbpp.org

Funding Pattern: Malawi

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-120

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

Estimated Total Budget Expected Government FundingApproved Total Budget Approved Government Funding

Funding Sources: Makerere

Private Higher Education

• 31.3 percent global enrollment in Private HE (Levy, 2012)

• Europe (collectively): 16 percent average

• 60-80 percent of students in Japan, South Korea, Phillipines, Taiwan and China study in private universities

• Asia: 36 percent; highest for East Asia; lower for South Asia

• Latin America: 49 percent in PHE

• US: Between 20 to 25%; just recently 28%

• 25 percent students in Africa—private institutions

• Private-Public: NYU/Abu Dhabi; U Nottingham/U Zheijang

• The Age of cross-border education: MOOCs

Internationalization

• When students and academics travel abroad

• University signs an MOU with foreign (institutional or development) partners

• Satellite campuses or franchise private providers are established in a new locale

• When a curriculum with an eye on international issues is developed

• Institution/country reevaluates the mode of instructional delivery

Internationalization

• Countries work toward a common frame of reference such as harmonizing credentials, or attract foreign faculty

• Evaluate the essence of brain drain, diaspora engagement

• Engage in rankings/center of excellence activities

• Win a international grant• Faculty are engaged in collaborative

research and publishing

Journal Articles in All Fields1981-2009

Source: Thomson Reuters, Global Research Report: United States. November 2010

Science Papers per Year 1995-2009

Source: US National Science Foundation Data, Marginson, 2012

Productivity Measures

Most Prolific African Nations in 21 Main Fields 2004-2008

Top five nations ranked by number of papers /percent of papers in field

Source for the next slide: Jonathan Adams, Christopher King, and Daniel Hook.

Global Research Report—Africa. April 2010

State of Research

• What is the state of research productivity: publication and patenting

Most Prolific African Nations in 21 Main Fields 2004-2008Top five nations ranked by number of papers / percent of papers in field

FIELD 1 2 3 4 5Agricultural Sciences

Nigeria 952 / 0.95

South Africa 692 / 0.69

Egypt 461 / 0.46

Kenya 380 / 0.38

Tunisia 247 / 0.25

Biology & Biochemistry

South Africa 1, 242 / 0.46

Nigeria 1,004 / 0.37

Egypt 521 / 0.19

Tunisia 505 / 0.19

Morocco 200 / 0.07

Chemistry Egypt 3,634 / 0.62

South Africa 2,059 / 0.35

Algeria 1,065 / 0.18

Tunisia 980 / 0.17

Morocco 866 / 0.15

Clinical Medicine


Egypt 2,584 / 0.26

Tunisia 1,587 / 0.16

Nigeria 1,392 / 0.14

Morocco 867 / 0.09

Computer Science


Egypt 240 / 0.16

Algeria 170 / 0.11

Tunisia 163 / 0.11

Morocco 74 / 0.05

Economics & Business


Kenya 54 / 0.07

Ethiopia 42 / 0.06

Nigeria 39 / 0.05

Tunisia 29 / 0.04

Engineering

Egypt 2,311 / 0.58


Algeria 800 / 0.20

Tunisia 752 / 0.19

Morocco 459 / 0.12

Environment/Ecology


Kenya 420 / 0.32

Egypt 367 / 0.28

Nigeria 351 / 0.27

Tanzania 206 / 0.16

Geosciences


Egypt 434 / 0.32

Morocco 294 / 0.22

Algeria 148 / 0.11

Tunisia 141 / 0.10

Immunology


Kenya 269 / 0.45

Uganda 207 / 0.34

Tanzania 110 / 0.18

Egypt 89 / 0.15

Materials Science

Egypt 1,421 / 0.61

Tunisia 575 / 0.23

Algeria 572 / 0.25


Morocco 294 / 0.13

Mathematics


Morocco 444 / 0.35

Tunisia 444 / 0.35

Egypt 368 / 0.29

Algeria 297 / 0.24

State of Research

• What is the state of research productivity: publication and patenting

FIELD 1 2 3 4 5

Microbiology


Egypt 243 / 0.30

Tunisia 213 / 0.26

Kenya 147 / 0.18

Cameroon 76 / 0.09

Molecular Biology & Genetics


Egypt 139 / 0.10

Tunisia 113 / 0.08

Kenya 58 / 0.04

Morocco 45 / 0.03

Neuroscience & Behaviour


Egypt 75 / 0.05

Tunisia 58 / 0.04

Morocco 45 / 0.03

Nigeria 37 / 0.03

Pharmacology & Toxicology

Egypt 600 / 0.66


Nigeria 235 / 0.26

Morocco101 / 0.11

Tunisia 90 / 0.10

Physics Egypt 1,880 / 0.40


Algeria 933 / 0.20

Morocco 646 / 0.14

Tunisia 601 / 0.13

Plant & Animal Science


Egypt 798 / 0.30

Kenya 784 / 0.29

Nigeria 602 / 0.22

Tunisia 527 / 0.19

Psychiatry/Psychology


Nigeria 102 / 0.09

Egypt 43 / 0.04

Uganda 38 / 0.03

Kenya 30 / 0.03

Social Sciences, General


Nigeria 331 / 0.17

Kenya 222 / 0.11

Tanzania 179 / 0.09

Ghana 140 / 0.07

Space Science


Egypt 86 / 0.14

Namibia 51 / 0.09

Morocco 31 / 0.05

Algeria 24 / 0.04

International Students

Source: OECD (2012) Education at a Glance 2012





Journal Articles in All Fields:1981-2009

Source: Thomson Reuters, Global Research Report: United States. November 2010

The Era of Rankings

• The Academic Ranking of World Universities/Shanghai Rankings (1,000)• QS World University Rankings• Times Higher Education• Centre for World University Rankings

(top 1,000)• U-Multirank (European Union)• US News and World Report

The Era of Rankings

• Centre for World University Rankings (top 1,000)

• 1. Quality of Education, measured by the number of a university's alumni who have won major international awards, prizes, and medals relative to the university's size [25%]

• 2. Alumni Employment, measured by the number of a university's alumni who currently hold CEO positions at the world's top companies relative to the university's size [25%]

• 3. Quality of Faculty, measured by the number of academics who have won major international awards, prizes, and medals [25%]

• 4. Publications, measured by the number of research papers appearing in reputable journals [5%]

• 5. Influence, measured by the number of research papers appearing in highly-influential journals [5%]

• 6. Citations, measured by the number of highly-cited research papers [5%]

• 7. Broad Impact, measured by the university's h-Index [5%] • 8. Patents, measured by the number of international patent filings [5%]

‘World Class University’: The Quest

• Leading, flagship, premier• 22 of 25 World’s Super research universities

—in the United States (Kearney 2009)• Japan (Global 30 Project), Korea (Brain

Korea 21)• China-211 Project (building 100 univ.) and

985 Project (selected consolidation)• Russia: A Ministerial committee—headed by

the Prime Minister• Centers of Excellence: Africa--PAU

The Quest for ‘World Class University’

‘GRRU’=Globally Relevant Research Universities

Country /region

No. Institutions

‘GRRU’

United States 4,800 150

China 5,000 9

India 504 [20,000] 10

South Africa 23 [115] 1?

Africa 1,500+ 1?+0?

Un(der)employment

• Creating a serious social and political upheaval: The Arab Spring

• “Time Bomb”—Brookings Institute (2011)• Europe: Graduates submit 60 application before

1st job; graduate unemployment in Europe: 6.2 (2012)

• Unemployed graduates US: 8.8 percent• Kenya: 40% (2008); Sudan: 20% (2012); Ghana:

12.9% (2005)• Botswana: 7.5% (2007)• South Africa: 24.9% (2011); 24.4% (2012 ) est;

graduate unemployment: 5.9%• Association of Unemployed Graduates (Ghana)

The Policy Dimension:Ambivalence and Confusion

• “Africa does not need PhDs.”• “Why should the economists need to be

Africans anyway?”• “Africa does not need ‘flagship’

universities.”• “Africa faces an undergraduate gap.”• “Higher education in Africa is a luxury,

that it might be better to close some institutions, or send those needing graduate work abroad.”

The VC: The Voice of the Council

In addition to the requisite personal traits and professional standing, a VC must be well conversant with the formidably complex institutional, national, regional and international higher education terrain of the 21st century.

Documents

Global and National Trends in Higher Education Damtew TEFERRA, Ph. D. Professor of Higher Education Leader, Higher Education Training and Development Founding