GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s

sector contribution to the EU GHG

emissions

European Commission

DG Agriculture and Rural Development

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 2

Starting point

18%18%

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 3

GGELS (1)

• Objective: Provide estimate of the net GHG emissions of the livestock sector

in EU27.

• Animal species: Beef and dairy cattle, small ruminants (sheep and goats) ,

pigs and poultry.

•Products: Meat (beef, pork, poultry, sheep and goats), milk (cow, sheep and

goats) and eggs.

•Livestock systems: BOMILK (dairy cattle), BOMEAT (meat from bovine),

POUFAT (meat from poultry), LAHENS (egg production), SHGOAT (meat &

milk from sheep and goat) and PORCIN (pig production)

•Food chain aproach (cradle to farm gate) – Spacial detail NUTS2

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 4

GGELS (2)

•Quantification: CAPRI

2004 , LCA

•Results: expressed by

Kg of carcass meat,

milk (4% fat content) or

eggs.

Emission source Livestock

rearing

Feed

production

Gases

• Enteric fermentation X CH4

• Livestock excretions

o Manure management (housing and storage) X NH3, N2O,

CH4, NOx

o Depositions by grazing animals X NH3, N2O,

NOx

o Manure application to agricultural soils X NH3, N2O,

NOx

o Indirect emissions, indirect emissions following N-

deposition of volatilized NH3/NOx from agricultural

soils and leaching/run-off of nitrate

X N2O

• Use of fertilizers for production of crops dedicated to

animal feeding crops (directly or as blends or feed

concentrates, including imported feed)

o Manufacturing of fertilizers X CO2, N2O

o Use of fertilizers, direct emissions from agricultural soils

and indirect emissions

X NH3, N2O

o Use of fertilizers, indirect emissions following N-

deposition of volatilized NH3/NOx from agricultural

soils and leaching/run-off of nitrate

X N2O

• Cultivation of organic soils X CO2, N2O

• Emissions from crop residues (including leguminous feed

crops)

X N2O

• Feed transport (including imported feed) X CO2-eq

• On-farm energy use (diesel fuel and other fuel electricity,

indirect energy use by machinery and buildings)

X CO2-eq

• Pesticide use X

• Feed processing and feed transport X CO2

• Emissions (or removals) of land use changes induced by

livestock activities (feed production or grazing)

o carbon stock changes in above and below ground

biomasss and dead organic matter o soil carbon stock change

o biomass burning

X

X X

CO2,

CO2,

CH4 and N2O

• Emissions or removals from pastures, grassland and

cropland

X X CO2

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 5

GGELS (3)

System boundaries for the GGELS project

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 6

Limitations

• Assesment of animal production systems in Europe, not considering

from a consumer´s perspective.

•Brief assesment of GHG emissions of the most important imported animal products

(bovine and chicken meat Brazil, sheepmeat from NZ)

•Dificult to provide a realistic quantification of emission abatement

potentials – technological reduction measures / policy mitigation options

•Nevertheless, policy options and reduction measures where explored

•Environmental effects other than GHG and NH3 emissions and

biodiversity under present conditions where not considered

•Uncertainty of the estimates

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 7

Structure

• Overview of the EU livestock sector

•Typology of livestock production systems in Europe

•Methodology for quantification of GHG and ammonia from the sector

•Comparison of emissions CAPRI / National inventories

•Quantification of GHG emissions / LCA

•Technological abatement measures

•Prospective overview of EU livestock emissions

1st phase

2nd phase

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 8

Results (1)

Total GHG fluxes of EU-27 livestock production in 2004, calculated with a cradle-to-gate life-

cycle analysis with CAPRI

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 9

Results (2)

Share of different sectors on total GHG emissions.

49%

21%

2%

29%

• Livestock sector (LCA) = 9,1% of total emissions (all sectors)

• With LUC (land use changes) - 12,8%

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 10

Results (3)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

BL DK DE EL ES FR IR IT NL AT PT SE FI UK CY CZ EE HU LT LV MT PL SI SK BG RO EU

EU member state

Percent

LULUC

Livestock without LULUC

Total GHG fluxes of EU livestock production (CAPRI LCA based results) in relation to EU total GHG emissions

(National Inventories)

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 11

Results – Product Level

(Meat + Milk)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Cow milk Sheep and Goat Milk

Animal product

CO2_LULUC

CO2_Energy

N2O

CH4GHG fluxes

[kg CO2-eq / kg milk]

Comparison of total GHG fluxes of different milk categories in kg of CO2-eq

per kg of milk

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

Beef Pork Sheep and

goat meat

Poultry meat

Animal product

CO2_LULUC

CO2_Energy

N2O

CH4

GHG fluxes

[kg CO2-eq / kg m

eat]

Comparison of total GHG fluxes of different meat categories in kg of CO2-eq per kg of meat

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 12

Technological abatement

measures (1)

• Based on literature data review:

•estimated reduction potential of 55-70 Mt CO2-eq

(15-19% of current GHG emissions)

•However:

•Large uncertainties

•Results depending in baseline climates, soil types, farm production systems

•Limited number of studies

•High variability in systems and management practices

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 13

Technological abatement

measures (2)

• Based on CAPRI

(2004)

• Measures selected:

availability of reduction

factors and

aplicability on CAPRI

model

•Many effects at

different places

•Carefull with

simplified conclusions

Animal House Adaptation

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep

and Goat

Milk

Sheep

and Goat

Meat

Eggs Poultry

Meat

Covered storage high efficiency

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep and

Goat Milk

Sheep and

Goat Meat

Eggs Poultry

Meat

Low NH3 application of manure (high eff.)

-2000-1000

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep

and Goat

Milk

Sheep

and Goat

Meat

Eggs Poultry

Meat

Urea Substitution

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep and

Goat Milk

Sheep and

Goat Meat

Eggs Poultry

Meat

No Grazing

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep

and Goat

Milk

Sheep

and Goat

Meat

Eggs Poultry

Meat

Biogas

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep

and Goat

Milk

Sheep

and Goat

Meat

Eggs Poultry

Meat

Energy + industry CH4 livestock N2O soil N2O livestock

Change in GHG fluxes

[kt CO2-eq]

Change in GHG fluxes

[kt CO2-eq]

Change in GHG fluxes

[kt CO2-eq]

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 14

Prpospective overview/

Exploratory aproach (1)

• Set of policy scenarios:connstrained by the target of 20% emissions reduction in 2020

•Reference or Baseline Scenario (REF) - takes into account the most likely

developments of agricultural markets, including the full implementation of the Health Check.

•Emission Standard Scenario (STD) - linked to an emission abatement standard

homogenous across MS.

•Emission Standard Scenario according to a specific Effort Sharing

Agreement for Agriculture (ESAA)

•Livestock Tax Scenario (LTAX) - which introduces regionally homogenous taxes per

ruminants.

•Tradable Emission Permits Scenario according to an Emission Trading

Scheme for Agriculture (ETSA): - This scenario is linked to a regionally homogenous

emission 'cap' set on total GHG emissions in MS. According to this 'cap' tradable emission

permits are issued to farmers and trade of emission permits is allowed at regional and EU-

wide level.

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 15

Prpospective overview/

Exploratory aproach (2)

• The REF scenario:•no explicit policy measures for GHG emission abatement

•scenario projection shows a trend driven reduction in GHG emissions for EU27 of -

6.8% in Co2-eq in the year 2020 compared to the reference year.

•In all policy scenarios the largest decreases in agricultural activities are

projected to take place at beef meat activities.

•With the inclusion of emission leakage in the exercise, all emission

scenarios where subject to leakage with the highest result in the LTAX

(Homogeneous EU livestock tax) scenario with an increase of 20% of

emissions in the rest of the world.

BAS REF STD ESAA ETSA LTAX

Total GHG emissions EU27 476.1 443.5 382.7 385.1 384.0 385.1

% reduction to BAS (2003-2005) -6.8% -19.6% -19.1% -19.3% -19.1%

Net increase in emissions in rest of the

world due to emission leakage 0.0 9.2 8.4 6.0 19.9

% reduction to BAS (2004) -6.8% -17.7% -17.3% -18.1% -14.9%

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 16

Estimation emissions

imported products

•Emissions from major imported animal products were calculated:

•Beef and poultry meat from Brazil and Sheepmeat from New Zealand

•with a different methodology

•Therefore, not directly comparable with other results of the study.

•33 kg CO2-eq/kg where estimated for sheep meat from New Zealand

•80 or 48 kg CO2-eq/kg for beef from Brazil (with or without LUC)

•1.2 kg CO2-eql/kg for chicken from Brazil.

•However, the estimate LUC emissions is highly uncertain and must be used

with caution.

•The reason for the higher GHG emissions from Brazilian beef (even without

considering LUC emissions) is the lower productivity and also lower

digestibility of the feed and thus higher CH4 emissions.

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 17

Conclusions – EU approach

to livestock emissions

► EU commitment to reduce GHG emissions

► EU climate policy instruments not sector specific

► MS to decide how to achieve reduction obligation in the non-trading sectors

► EU policy promotes healthy diets and has legislation to ensure food safety - No role in dictating what people should eat

► Fact based information about the GHG impact of different production methods is better than scare-mongering about meat eating

GGELS – Evaluation of the livestock´s sector contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions 18

Thank you !

Report available in:

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/external/livestock-gas/index_en.htm