23
1 Heading back to profitable growth Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 New York January 12, 2010 Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

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Page 1: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

1

Heading back to profitable growth

Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 New York

January 12, 2010

Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

Page 2: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

2

Forward-looking statements

This presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. This presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. BASF has based these forward-looking statements on its views with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance of the entities described herein could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements represent estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and BASF does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.

Page 3: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

3

Decisive actions in the crisis:

• Successful value before volume strategy

• Adjusting capacity to reduced demand

• Cost-cutting and efficiency improvement programs well on track

• Ciba integration accelerated

Business conditions improving:

• Volumes improving sequentially from very low levels

• Positive impulses from Asia, especially China and from South America

• Business conditions in U.S. and Europe stabilizing

2009 – A year of challenges

Page 4: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

4

BASF today – a well-balanced portfolio Total sales 2008: €62.3 billion

* Styrenics reported under ‘Other’

Percentage of sales 2008

Chemicals

18%

Plastics*

15%

Functional Solutions15%

Performance Products13%

Agricultural Solutions5%

Oil & Gas

23%

Construction Chemicals

Inorganics

Petrochemicals

Intermediates

Performance Chemicals

Coatings

Dispersions & Pigments

Performance Polymers

Polyurethanes

Crop Protection

Exploration & Production and Natural Gas Trading

Care Chemicals

Catalysts

Paper Chemicals

Page 5: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

5

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

17.5%

20.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 H1

EBITDA margins*

European chemical sector average**BASF Group EBITDA margin excl. non-deductible oil taxes

U.S. chemical sector average***

* before special items ** Akzo Nobel, Bayer, Ciba, Clariant, ICI, Degussa, DSM, Rhodia, Solvay, LBI (since 2008) *** Dow, Dupont, Rohm&Haas, PPG, Lyondell (until 2007), Nova Source: Morgan Stanley, company reports

Outperforming sector margins due to well-balanced portfolio

Page 6: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

6

Strong cash flow generation

Cash provided by operating activities Free cash flow*

* Cash provided by operating activities less capex (in 2005 before CTA)** According to German GAAP

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001** 2002** 2003** 2004 2005* 2006 2007 2008 Q1-3 2009

In billion €

5.4

3.5

Page 7: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

7

1 | Focus on operational excellence

2 | Well positioned for profitable growth

3 | Outlook

7

Page 8: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

8

Index

Fixed costs indexed

• Fixed costs in 2008 at the same level as in the last trough 2001, while sales and earnings increased significantly

• Fixed cost increase from 2006 onwards related to acquisitions (Engelhard, Degussa Construction Chemicals)

• Fixed costs represent around 30% of total costs

EBITDA indexedSales indexed

Tenacious fixed cost management

50

100

150

200

250

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 9: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

9

Annual earnings contribution in million €

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2012E

New EXcellence Targets(NEXT):

• > 500 individual projects to simplify processes, structures and production sites in all regions

• Project timeline: 2008 – 2011

• Estimated earnings contribution in 2009: ~ €300 million

• Targeted earnings contribution by 2012: > €1 billion

Completed restructuring programs

New efficiency program NEXT

Sustainable improvement of cost base

Page 10: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

10

Higher than expected synergies at Ciba New target of at least €450 million

Note: Ciba revenues 2008: CHF5,919 million or €3,986 million

Total integration costs

Q1-Q3 2009: €470 million• thereof:

€457 million special items

Headcount reduction by 3,800

290

100

450

600

100

200

300

400

500

end 2009 end 2010 2011/2012 Steady State

Synergy ramp-up in million €

Synergies in percent of sales (2008: €4.0 billion)

10

New target: at least €450 million

≥5

0

7.5

2.5

12.5

FY 2009E: €800 million• thereof:

€720 million special items

2010-2012E: €300 million• thereof:

€150 million special items

Page 11: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

Stronger into the future

11

1 | Focus on operational excellence

2 | Well positioned for profitable growth

3 | Outlook

Page 12: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

12

Index

Chemical production* volume growth

BASF volume growthincluding M&A

BASF organicvolume growth

BASF growth outpaces market

80

100

120

140

160

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

CAGR 2001-2008:

Global chemical production* growth: 3.2% p.a.

BASF Group organic volume growth: 5.4% p.a.

BASF Group volume growth incl. M&A: 7.6% p.a.

* Without pharma

Page 13: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

13

Well positioned for profitable growth

Ongoing portfolio

optimization

• Continue with active portfolio management

• Drive portfolio closer to customers

Excellent innovation platform

• Product and system innovation as growth drivers

• Strong pipeline of innovations

• Leading in patent index

Leading positions in growth

industries and emerging markets

• Translate megatrends into business growth

• Drive growth in key customer industries

• Benefit from strong asset footprint in allmajor regions

• Continue expansion in Asia

Growth target: We strive to outperform global chemical production growth by at least 2 percentage points

Page 14: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

14

Future nutrition of growing world populationPlant biotechnology pipeline taps into huge market potential

Superior agricultural productivity

Plants as renewable raw

materials

Better and healthier

nutrition/feed

< $100 million**

$100-200 million**

Market Value

DiscoveryIdentifying

genes & proof of concept

up to 6 years

Stage ILook for proof of

concept IIup to 4 years

Stage IIEarly

product developmentup to 3 years

Stage IIIAdvanced product

developmentup to 2 years

Improved amino acid

High oil

> $2 billion*

< $100 million**

Healthier fatty acids (Omega-3&6) $300–500 million**

Stage IVPre-Launch

up to 3 years

Herbicide tolerance

Amylopectin

Fungal resistance

Yield & stress (corn, soybean, cotton, canola)

* Valuation reflects annual gross sales value of trait in 2020 ( at farm gate level) for initial country of launch only ** Value generated through the plant biotech trait across the respective value chain

Page 15: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

15

New Zealand

Australia

China

Pakistan

Bangladesh

India Thailand

Singapore

Indonesia

Taiwan

JapanS. Korea

Malaysia

VietnamHong Kong

Asia Pacific service center

Regional headquarters

Verbund site

Chemical production site *

R&D center *

15

Growth in emerging markets Outgrowing Asian Pacific chemical market by 2 percentage points p.a.

• Strengthen market focus through industry and customer target groups

• Develop and market innovations in Asia for Asia

• Invest in Asia to generate 70% of sales through local production – €2 billion investments planned for 2009-2013

* Some sites not shown due to scale

BASF expects to double sales to €20 billion in Asia Pacific by 2020:

Page 16: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

16

EBIT before special items by activity in billion € *(without non-compensable foreign taxes on oil production)

* Without ‘Other’** Based on German GAAP*** As of 2007 according to new segment structure (excl. Styrenics and corporate costs)

Oil & GasCrop ProtectionChemical activities • BASF Group more

profitable in Q1-3 2009 than in last trough (2001-2003) as a result of:- rigorous cost savings - active portfolio

management

• Oil & Gas and Agro businesses providing a substantial earnings basis

Strength through diversity: Active portfolio management pays off

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2001** 2002** 2003** 2004 2005 2006 2007*** 2008 Q1-32009

Page 17: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

17

Total R&D expenditures 2008: €1.35 billion

R&D spending in 2009 planned on similar level

24%

24%

14%

17%

11%9%

Agricultural Solutions

Functional Solutions

Performance Products

PlasticsChemicals

Innovation will spur further growth

Corporate Research

• Targeted annual sales from product innovation*: - 2010: up to €6 billion - 2015: €6-8 billion

• Five Growth Clusters : - Nanotechnology - Energy Management - Plant Biotechnology - Industrial Biotechnology - Raw Material Change

• Budget for growth clusters (2009-2011):up to €1 billion

* New or improved products or new applications, max. 5 years on market, including Growth Clusters

1%

Oil & Gas

Page 18: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

18

1 | Focus on operational excellence

2 | Well positioned for profitable growth

3 | Outlook

18

Page 19: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

19

The economic recovery remains slow and fragile

• Positive impulses from Asia, especially China and from South America

• Business conditions in U.S. and Europe stabilizing

• Still high uncertainty about sustainability of recovery, structural problems continue to exist e.g. overcapacities

• Basic assumptions for entire year 2009– Decline in global gross domestic product (–2.5%), global industrial

production (–9.1%) and global chemical production* (–6.1%)– Average exchange rate of $1.40 per €– Average oil price of $60/bbl

* Without pharma

Page 20: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

2020

Q4:• Further signs of recovery in October and November.

EBIT before special items will probably match the level of Q3’ 09.

Full year:• We anticipate a significant decline in sales and earnings.• Ciba integration accelerated. Higher integration costs will

negatively impact earnings.• Therefore, BASF is unlikely to reach its goal of earning

its cost of capital in 2009.

Outlook 2009

Page 21: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

21

Page 22: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

22

Q3 09 Q3 08 Δ% Q2 09 Δ%

Sales 12,798 15,772 (19) 12,502 2

EBITDA 1,993 2,171 (8) 1,576 26

EBIT before special items 1,248 1,568 (20) 1,140 9

Net income 237 758 (69) 343 (31)

Earnings per share (€) 0.26 0.82 (68) 0.37 (30)

Adjusted EPS (€) 0.61 0.96 (36) 0.79 (23)

Million €

Q3 2009 performance sequentially improved due to operational strength

Page 23: German Investment Seminar 2010 - BASF · 1 Heading back to profitable growth. Commerzbank German Investment Seminar 2010 . New York. January 12, 2010. Dr. Kurt Bock, CFO

23* Incl. Chemicals, Plastics, Performance Products, Functional Solutions and Styrenics; Catalysts without precious metals; without Ciba

Volumes improving sequentially from very low levels

Q1 Q2Q3

Q2Q3*

Q1Q4

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Europe

Q1

Q2

Q3 Q3*Q2

Q4 Q1

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Asia Pacific

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q2 Q3*Q4

Q1

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

North America

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q2

Q3*

Q4

Q1-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

South America, Africa, Middle East

2008 2009 2008 2009

2008 20092008 2009

Volume development of industrial activities* compared to average 2008