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Geopolitics inthe High North

Multiple ActorsNorwegian Interests

A fve-year (20082012) research programme fnancedthrough the Norwegian Research Council and conducted by

the Norwegian Institute or Deence Studies with partners andassociates


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Geopolitics in the High NorthThe High North stands out as an area o great possibilities in the decades tocome. High energy prices and technological advances have made it possible toexploit petroleum resources in areas that have hitherto been inaccessible. Dueto climate change, new sea transportation routes may open up considerablyshortening the distance rom Europe and North America to Asia. The demandor high-quality white sh rom the Barents Sea is steadily rising on interna-

tional markets, making Barents Sea shing a multi-billion dollar industry.

Two decades ater the end o the Cold War, cross-border commercial and cul-tural exchanges between Russia and its Arctic neighbours nally seem to beexperiencing a robust upswing, ater a slow and spasmodic beginning. Manyactors on the international scene, both states and private interests, includingemerging economies in Asia, now show a keen interest in the Arctic and theEuropean High North. Thus, there is more to the Northern euphoria thanjust political rhetoric. The region has a considerable potential or economic

growth in several sectors.

At the same time, there are numerous challenges. Environmental risks havemoved high up on the agenda. The eects o climate change threaten the tra-ditional livelihoods o indigenous populations. Changes in sea temperaturesmight lead to sh stocks changing their pattern o migration, creating newchallenges or multinational shery management. Conficting interests create apotential or rivalry between various actors a potential aggravated by impor-tant, unsolved jurisdictional issues. Moreover, security in a military-strategic

sense is about to experience a renaissance. As with the expansion o economicactivities in the region, Russias renewed sel-assertiveness and intention orebuilding and modernising its armed orces, including its strategically impor-tant Northern Fleet, will likely also serve to revive states interest and involve-ment in the region.


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Through cooperation between Norwegian and international partners, thisprogramme aims to develop new knowledge about the complex interactiono actors in the High North. The Norwegian discourse on High North issueshas tended to be myopic and sel-centred, and there is a proound lack o un-derstanding o how academic experts and decision-makers in other countriesview these questions.

Most o the challenges acing Norway in the High North transcend a narrow,national ramework. Thus, the programme aims to create an internationalarena or research and debate in the eld. With an improved understanding ointernational perspectives on the High North, Norwegian actors will be in abetter position to make well-ounded decisions.


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The research programme includes a group o cooperating institutions andindividuals led by the Norwegian Institute or Deence Studies (Institutt ororsvarsstudier IFS). In line with the suggestions o the Norwegian ResearchCouncil Evaluation Committee, the programme consists o a core group oNorwegian and international partners, supplemented by associated institu-tions and associated individuals. IFS notes the Chair o the committees em-

phasis on IFS responsibility in terms o ensuring that the academic level andocus o the programme its aims and purposes are being ully respected andadhered to throughout the wide programme.

PartnersThe Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS)specialises in the elds o geopolitics, as well as Norwegian and internationalsecurity, including Russian, American and High North security. IFS has priori-

tised the northern region in its research activities, with more than ten scholarsholding High North research competence. In the autumn o 2007, the insti-tute was responsible or organising two international conerences on the HighNorth: one pertaining to Cold War issues, the second dealing with current anduture challenges in the High North.

The Department of Political Science of the University of Oslo (UiO)is the leading academic institution in Norway concerning geopolitics, interna-tional organisations and regimes, and energy and environmental issues. The

proessors taking part in the programme include Dag Harald Claes, Arild Un-derdal and yvind sterud.

The Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI)is an independent oundation engaging in social science research on interna-tional energy, resource and environmental policy, including international law.It is a leading institute internationally on regime eectiveness and institutional

Partners and Associates


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interplay, on Arctic politics related to marine resource management, climateand environment, energy development and law o the sea issues. It has also amajor research agenda on Russian politics and interests in the High North.

The Departments of History and Political Science and the Faculty of

Law of the University ofTroms (UiT)of the University of Troms (UiT)represent one o the major academic research environments or internationalrelations in the High North. Key research areas include international oceanlaw and governance, and the history o the Arctic. Al Hkon Hoel, Tore

Henriksen, Hallvard Tjelmeland, Torbjrn Pedersen and Per Christiansenwill be the main contributors.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)in Washington DC is one o the worlds most prominent research institutes.It ranks among the leading institutes within the elds o geopolitics, globalsecurity, deence policy and international security, and energy security. CSISspecialists seek to anticipate changes in key countries and regions, includingEurope.

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlinis an independent research institute, and the leading German centre or inter-national and security studies. Apart rom participating in the scholarly dis-course in Germany and internationally, it produces policy papers or the useo the German government and parliament. SWPs research agenda is directedtowards current issues o public and policy interests.

Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)is one o the major Russian research institutions on international and securityissues. Apart rom conducting research, MGIMO oers a ull spectrum ohigher education in the eld. MGIMO hosts the Norwegian-Russian Instituteo Energy Cooperation, established in 2004 in cooperation with the GraduateSchool o Business and Bod University College.


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The Institute of Universal History of the Russian Academy of

Sciences (IUH), Moscowis the major Russian research institute on international history. The institutespecialises in Cold War studies, and is an active participant in internationalnetworks in the eld. IFS has been cooperating closely with the IUH since theearly 1990s.

Associated InstitutionsThe Norwegian Defence Research Establishmentis a leading research institution ocusing on a broad range o deence relatedareas, with a main ocus on deence technology. In this programme it supple-ments IFS research portolio in security studies, with a particular ocus onRussian security policy and regional military aairs.

Econ Pyryis a Nordic research institute and consulting company working primarily atthe crossroads between markets, policies and technology. Econ Pyry conducts

research across a wide spectrum o topics and issues, most notably energy-re-lated questions.

Associated IndividualsApart rom the institutions listed above, a number o individual Norwegianand oreign researchers have agreed to participate in some orm with the pro-gramme. Among these the ollowing researchers are the most central:

Proessor Clive Archer, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityDr Rob Huebert, University o CalgaryProessor Valur Ingimundarson, University o IcelandDr Eirik Mikkelsen, Northern Research Institute (NORUT)Dr Erik Molenaar, Netherlands Institute or the Law o the Sea (NILOS)Dr Susanne Nies, Institut ranais des relations internationales (IFRI), BrusselsProessor David VanderZwaag, Dalhousie UniversityProessor Oran R. Young, University o Caliornia Santa Barbara (UCSB)


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Beore developing urther the research agenda o this programme outline, threebasic concepts need clarication.

The High North (in Norwegian: nordomrdene) and related concepts arewidely open to interpretation. Their geographical delimitation varies rom onecountry to the other and according to the agenda o the user. The term High

North as used in this programme outline is conned to the European HighNorth and is guided by practioners usage rather than by theoretical consid-erations. It includes those parts o the Nordic countries and Russia that par-ticipate in the Barents Euro-Arctic Region, the Norwegian Sea, the BarentsSea, and the southern parts o the Polar Sea. The totality o the areas north othe polar circle (the whole circumpolar region) will be reerred to by the termthe Arctic.

The termgeopolitics refects the connection between power and interests, stra-

tegic decision-making, and geographic space. Its contemporary use deviatesradically rom its origin in the late 19th century, when the term refected anunderstanding o international aairs strongly infuenced by Social Darwin-ism. It also signalled a cynical realist view o international aairs, with limitedbelie in the signicance o multilateralism, global norms or international law.As used in this programme outline,geopolitics denotes the interplay o naturalresources, strategic dominance and geographic space on the one hand, andthe various state and non-state actors pursuing individual as well as collectiveinterests on the other. However, the linkage to earlier usage o the term is not

entirely broken. Growing use o the concept in the present public debate sig-nals a need or a term that refects the renaissance o great power rivalry andthe rise o multipolarity in the early 21st century.

Geopolitics is oten paired with national interest, a term closely associated withthe school o realism in international aairs. In its classical orm, this traditionholds that all states must pursue their objective interests, o which the survival

Terminology


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o its sovereign status is the most essential. Such a view o interests has beenwidely rejected as reductionist and rudely determinist. The interesting questionis how such interests are ormulated and revised through processes involvingvarious pressure groups, media, experts and decision makers, all within a set-ting o determinants such as a political and strategic culture. Moreover, schol-ars and politicians alike realise that whereas some interests may lead to rivalry(i.e., territorial disputes or access to markets), other interests are in act shared(i.e. peace, stability, predictable rules o international interaction).


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Within a geopolitical ramework as suggested above, the programme will o-cus on the ollowing clusters o issues and determinants:

Actors and patterns o cooperation and confict (Work Package 1)

The role o traditional state actors and the most relevant regional group-ing: Russia, the USA, Germany, the European Union (Work Packages 2,3, 4)Energy, jurisdiction and governance, and climate change and environment(Work Packages 5, 6, 7)Security (element in all packages)

Moreover, IFS will conduct a separate package (no. 8) that aims to synthesiseconsequences and lessons or Norwegian interest emanating rom the seven

rst work packages. Below is a description o the eight Work Packages includ-ed in the programme, together with a preliminary list o researchers involved.There may be changes to this list, and additional researchers may be includedat a later stage.

Programme focus and projects


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Work Package 1Actors and Patterns of Cooperation and Conict

Responsible: Proessor Rol Tamnes, IFSParticipants: IFS, UiO, FNI, UiT, CSIS, SWP, MGIMO

This Work Package will identiy the various categories o actors in the HighNorth and analyse the interplay between them. The Work Package is envis-aged as having an over-arching character, covering the entire project period,and it will draw extensively on the ndings rom the other Work Packages. Itwill involve representatives o all partners, and be run by senior scholars rompartner institutions.

The ollowing research problems will be covered:

Which actors are the most important in the High North? What are the

main interests and the impact o the various actors?How and where do the interests o various actors clash, giving rise toconfict or rivalry? To what degree are there perceived common interestsamong important actors? What alliances or common understandings (tacitor ocial) exist between them?How can the complex web o interests be managed through cooperation,dialogue and negotiation, so that constructive and mutually acceptablecompromises can be reached?

There is a number o unsolved issues in the High North which will be morepressing in the near uture, as economic activities expand. For example, thereare eight bilateral boundary issues involving all states in the region. O par-ticular importance to Norway are the issues o the maritime delimitation linebetween Russia and Norway and the disagreement on various aspects o theSvalbard Treaty. Moreover, the northernmost extension o the continentalshelves in the Arctic is not yet decided.


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States, particularly the traditional great powers, will play a key role in theregion. However, local and regional authorities, NGOs promoting environ-mental protection, as well as indigenous populations, have their own agen-das. Commercial interests will grow dramatically in importance. These includelarge energy companies, many with state ownership, shing interests, shippingcompanies and tourist business. The complex interplay among all these actorswill have decisive impact on the geopolitics o the High North in the decadesto come.

Among multilateral organisations, the Arctic Council and the Barents Re-gional Cooperation will probably remain important arenas or discussion. TheEuropean Union will most likely unction as a stabiliser and contribute topromoting norms and rules. However, it is more questionable whether the EUcan be seen as a unied actor in the High North in a geopolitical perspective,as the interests o its member states are not uniorm. NATO might as a collec-tive deence organisation be given a role in energy security in the High North.Moreover, areas under the jurisdiction o NATO member states are covered byNATOs collective security guarantee under Article 5 o the treaty.

Furthermore, the whole Arctic is marked by a tight web o international

agreements and regimes that both regulate activity and provide procedures orsolving disagreements. Examples are the UN Convention o the Law o theSea, the UN Fish Stock Agreement, the North East Atlantic Fisheries Com-mission and the International Maritime Organisation, as well as a number oprinciples o international law.

Policies towards activities in the region vary among key actors. Some arguein avour o more international governance, while others demand reedom oaction. Some promote openness and international cooperation, whereas othersaim or exclusive zones, spheres o interest and national privileges.

The programme will investigate the High North policies o the Nordiccountries, with a particular view to the potential or cooperation and jointpolicy ormulation in selected areas. The developing Nordic security and de-ence cooperation is one natural ocus or this eort.

Status of research:There is a proound lack o research on the totality o actorconstellations in the High North. There are a ew studies on individual coun-


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tries, on the role o local authorities and the ability o indigenous populationsto infuence the development. Similarly, there is a need or scholarly works thatlook at the relations between the layers o actors and how they interact. Suchan overall analysis would be a major contribution to our understanding o thegeopolitical dynamics o the region.

Timeframe: 20082012Activities: workshops/seminarsParticipating researchers:Proessor Rol Tamnes and Senior Fellow Paal S. Hilde,IFS; Proessor yvind sterud, UiO; Proessor Al Hkon Hoel, UiT; SeniorFellow Olav Schram Stokke, FNI; Senior Fellow Julianne Smith, CSIS; Dr An-dreas Maurer, SWP; Proessor Lev Voronkov, MGIMOOutput: One major synthesising monograph; occasional papers with policyrelevance, three per year in 20092012


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Work Package 2Russia, Norway and the High NorthPast, Present, Future

Responsible: Senior FellowSven G. Holtsmark, IFSParticipants: IFS, FFI, UiT, Econ Pyry, IUH, MGIMO

In the European High North, Russia is by ar the largest state and a crucialplayer. In recent years Russia has become more stable and has experiencedast economic growth due to high energy prices. Russia appears with renewedsel-assertiveness on the international stage, and is once again fexing militarymuscles in the High North. Relations between Russia and Western powers particularly the United States and Britain have become more strained. Atthe same time, Norway has so ar managed to keep a good and ruitul rela-tionship with its eastern neighbour. For Norwegian decision-makers, under-standing the rationale o Russian past, present and uture policies is o crucial

importance.Russia is changing rapidly as a result o a complex interaction o economic,

political, socio-cultural and technological orces, both rom within and out-side the country. The only certainty is that relations between Norway andRussia in the High North will to a large degree depend on how Russia devel-ops internally. To shed some more light on uture perspectives, a driving orceanalysis will be conducted and implications or Russo-Norwegian relationswill be drawn.

A central interest or Norway has been to handle relations with Russiasuccessully keeping a good relationship, while at the same time avoidingpotential pitalls. During the later years, Norway has also tried energeticallyto engage Russia in a positive sense in as many arenas as possible. Apart romthe general aim o building a robust relationship, this engagement policy alsohas a quite substantial economic dimension there is a great potential orNorwegian companies on the expanding Russian markets.


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The Work Package will explore Russian interests in the High North andrelations with Norway with particular attention to identiying trends o conti-nuity as well as new traits.

The Work Package will include the ollowing major projects:

A broad synthesising monograph on Russian-Norwegian relations, 19172014, with particular ocus on High North questions within a geopoliticalcontext. The project will look at issues like the evolution o Russian HighNorth policies, including jurisdictional issues in the Barents Sea; Russiandiscourse on the countrys interests vis--vis Norway; Russian perceptionso Norwegian oreign and security policies in general and High Northpolicies in particular; the role o various Russian actors, including theevolution o the role o non-state actors.A comprehensive survey will be conducted o contemporary Russian HighNorth policies in a geopolitical perspective, with ocus on the interactionbetween the utilisation o natural resources and the evolution o Russianmilitary and security structures in the area. This part o the project will re-

sult in a post-doctoral project, and a number o articles in listed journals.Protection o Russias economic interests seems to gure highly on theagenda o the military, including the Northern Fleet. At the same time, theFleets traditional main unction nuclear deterrence is still a undamen-tal priority. This means that the countrys political and military leadershave to strike a balance between the two unctions.

Timeframe: 20082012Activities:one workshop/seminar in Moscow, one in Norway

Researchers involved: Senior Fellow Sven G. Holtsmark and Senior ResearchFellow Katarzyna Zysk, IFS; Dr Aleksej Komarov and Ms Anastasia Kasiyan,IUH; Proessor Lev Voronkov, MGIMO; Senior Analyst Kristian tland, FFI;Senior Advisor Morten Anker, Econ Pyry; Proessor Jens Petter Nielsen andSenior Research Fellow Stian Bones, UiT.Output: Monograph, post-doctoral project, three articles in listed journals


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Work Package 3The United States in the 21 Century Arctic

Responsible: Senior Fellow Julianne Smith, CSISParticipating institutions: CSIS, IFS

This project will examine US policies towards the Arctic region, with specialattention to the European High North.

The ollowing main research problems will be addressed:

What are the interests o the United States in the Arctic, and how will theychange as the area becomes more accessible or economic exploitation andtransport?What are potential meeting-points and areas o cooperation between theUnited States, Norway and other nations in the High North? Are there ar-

eas or more extensive cooperation? Are there areas o potential confict?How does the United States view the High North within a global strategicsecurity ramework? How does the United States view the signicance omultilateral security cooperation in the region, especially with respect toNATO, and, in this connection, Norway? To what extent can we expectmajor changes in US policy on these issues in the uture?

Until 1990 the High North played an important role in the geopolitics o theUnited States, but American interests in the region ell steeply ater the end o

the Cold War. However, this may change. The US National Security Councilis now preparing a review o US policy in the Arctic, and that might lead to areappraisal o US interests in the region.


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Some possible trends could infuence on US policies:

Secure access to energy is o vital importance to the United States. In theuture, the role o Arctic petroleum extraction might become even moreimportant. Most o the remaining petroleum resources are located in re-gions that are highly volatile, compared to the Arctic. Moreover, high en-ergy prices, and technological advances open up opportunities to exploitthe Arctic petroleum reserves.The reduction o Arctic sea ice might exacerbate a number o sovereigntyissues. From a US perspective, the most imminent dispute involves the

legal status o the Northwest Passage. Moreover, along with the other Arc-tic states, the United States is laying claims to parts o the northernmostextension o the continental shelves in the Arctic. Should the United Statesratiy the 1982 Convention on the Law o the Sea, the US administrationwill be in a stronger position to infuence on the UN deliberations on theissue.There are a number o security issues in the region. In the uture, theincreasingly ice-ree waterways could serve as conduits or illegal immi-grants and terrorists, and as transit routes or weapons o mass destruc-tion. The latter threat orms some o the background or the plans orestablishing a missile deence system covering the region. Moreover, in thepossible multipolar power system o the uture, important Asian countrieswill have ar stronger ootprints in the north. China is especially keen toopen the northern route with giant container ships. These developmentsare mentioned in the new US maritime strategy o October 2007.However, in a short and medium term perspective, we might assume thatUS ambitions to contain the resurgent Russia will be the most decisive ac-tor in shaping US geopolitics o the Arctic in general, and the EuropeanHigh North in particular.

US relations with NATO are crucial, especially rom a European and a Nor-wegian point o view. Seeing US interests in the High North within US globalstrategic assessments orm the background or understanding US policies inthe region.


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This Work Package will draw on relevant ndings in Work Package 7 (Cli-

mate Change and Environmental Protection), and when appropriate, individ-ual projects in the two Work Packages will be closely coordinated.

There is a substantial body o research on US policies in the High Northduring the Cold War, e.g. Rol Tamnes seminal study on US geopolitics in theHigh North rom 1991. However, ater the end o the Cold War, the scholarlyinterest or US strategic interests in the High North has been limited. Thus,there is a need or new studies, taking recent developments into account.

Timeframe: 20082012Activities:ourworkshops/seminarsResearchers involved: Senior Fellow Julianne Smith and Senior Fellow SteveFlanagan, CSIS; Fellow Svein Melby and Research Fellow Ingrid Lundestad,IFSOutput: PhD-dissertation, 4 occasional papers


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Responsible: Dr Andreas Maurer, SWPParticipants: SWP, IFS, UiO, UiT

The European Union is not a unied actor in the High North in a geopoliticalperspective. The development o a coherent oreign and security policy is agradual process, and so ar the EU lacks a unied stance on the High North.The interests o those member states showing any involvement oten point indierent directions. The existence o the Northern Dimension does not alterthis general picture. Until now, the Northern Dimension has been constrictedto regional developments in the Baltic region, although there are elements thatpoint to a wider role, including the importance attached to energy and envi-ronmental issues in recent projects.

The Work Package will ocus on the potential or a more unied and inte-grated European Union High North policy. Emphasis will be on the manage-ment and exploitation o natural resources, on traditional security and onissues o jurisdiction. Due to its key role in European processes relevant to thisprogramme, special attention will be paid to the evolution oGerman attitudesand policies. Some Norwegian observers have claimed that Germany is the solemajor European power that can be expected to sympathise with Norway wereunsolved issues o jurisdiction to become acute. This being said, other Euro-pean countries have also declared their interests in the High North. Frenchcompanies are already involved in the petroleum sector, while the British inrecent years have asserted their views on legal aspects related to the Svalbardtreaty. Other European countries are involved in shing in the Barents Sea.

By inviting a German partner to join the programme, the aim is not only toinvolve established German experts in specied research projects. An equallyimportant ambition is to boost the interest in High North issues in the Germanresearch community. The German partner will thereore make particular e-

Work Package 4Dening an InterestThe European Union and the High North


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orts to attract senior students and young researchers to the eld. Similarly, theprogramme has established contacts with Proessor Clive Archer, who workson British-Norwegian relations in the High North at Manchester Metropoli-tan University, and Dr Susanne Nies at the Institut ranais des relations inter-nationales.

With the major exception o energy relations with Russia, research on EU,German, French and British High North policies is limited both in Norwayand internationally. A recent research topic has been the political impact othe planned gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea. Thus, building on establishedresearch on Russia and security issues in general, the projects o this WorkPackage will include questions which up to now has been almost absent romthe research agenda in continental EU member states.

The Work Package will include three major projects:

Research report:The potential role or EU energy policy o the High Northas an energy province, bearing in mind the current preponderance o na-tional interests o individual EU states over common Union position

Research report: EU member states policy on legal issues in the HighNorth, and the prospects or the establishment o a common EU position.Particular ocus will be paid to the shery protection zone and the con-tinental shel around Svalbard. This project will be closely linked to thework undertaken in Work Package 6.Research report: The evolution o EU and individual EU member statesperception o the military security relevance o the High North, and thepotential or dialogue between Norway and the EU and individual mem-ber states.

Timeframe: 20092012Activities:two workshops/seminarsParticipants: Dr Andreas Maurer, SWP; Proessor Dag Harald Claes, UiO; Pro-essor Per Christiansen, UiT; Senior Fellow Kre Dahl Martinsen and Re-search Fellow Kristine Oerdal, IFSOutput: three research reports, 4 occasional papers


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Responsible: Proessor Dag Harald Claes, UiOParticipants: UiO, FNI, Econ Pyry, IFS, CSIS

The volume o petroleum extraction in the High North might rise substantially

in the course o the next decades. Russia is rst in line to develop major newresources, but the estimates or other regions in Canadian, US, Danish, andNorwegian waters are signicant, i still highly uncertain. At the same time,increasing demand or energy worldwide, especially in developing economies,and threats to the stability and security o existing supplies o energy, makeexploration o Arctic energy resources important. This project will study thegeopolitical signicance o the energy resources in the High North. There isreason to assume that the energy resources in the Arctic are signicant evenseen in a global perspective, and many politicians and observers are o the

opinion that the region will assume great importance in global thinking onenergy security.The project will start by analysing how the concept o energy security is

perceived by important actors in a High North setting, and what implicationsa quest or such security might have. The various aspects o the security dimen-sions include security o delivery, security o demand, security o transporta-tion, security o inrastructure against terrorism, and environmental security.Energy security also has to do with energy prices at some price levels, impor-tant actors will eel that their security o consumption is under threat. Finally,

the conceptualisation o energy security, and the role o ossil uels in energysecurity, might change as climate challenges rise across the globe. We oresee asmaller separate study on this topic in the early stages o the project.

So ar, too little analysis has been made on the geopolitical signicance othe Arctic resources. There is a need or a better grasp o how signicant theseresources actually are, and how they could protably be brought to markets.What is clear is that the perceived degree o global petroleum scarcity consti-tutes a undamental economic condition or development o energy resourcesin the High North. A small study o the changing characteristics o the external

Work Package 5The Power of Energy


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energy policy o the European Union will be made early in the program periodto understand the European energy context o the High North resources.

Two ollowing sets o questions will be o particular interest to the Work Pack-age:

We need a better understanding o how the Arctic compares with otherenergy regions both politically and economically. Extraction costs, inra-structure, transportation and environmental and climate impacts are allimportant actors. The Work Package will thus include comparative eco-nomic studies related to such indicators. There is also a need to relate theregion to eatures o the global oil market. What oil prices are needed tomake extraction o these resources viable? What are the comparative ad-vantages and disadvantages o the energy resources o the High North? Towhat extent can economic disadvantages be compensated by skilul use opolitical and diplomatic instruments?The same institutions will cooperate on a separate study o oil companiesinterests and attitudes towards the energy resources in the High North.

We oresee vivid participation and dialogue with commercial actors in thisproject.Energy rich regions are usually seen as inused with political conficts.However, recent studies suggest a high level o international cooperationin oil rich regions. Building on ndings rom research within other partso the Work Package, an empirical comparison o the High North oil re-gion with political cooperation and confict in other energy regions will beconducted. We will relate this study to similar studies o other energy-richregions.

Natural gas is not yet a global commodity in the same way as oil. Theextensive network o pipelines tends to isolate the European gas marketrom other regional markets. However, the alling costs o liqueed natu-ral gas (LNG) transportation shows signs o integrating dierent regionalgas markets. This structural change o gas markets is o vital importanceor the economic viability o gas resources in the High North. Gas consti-tutes a signicant part o the proven and estimated petroleum resourcesin the Arctic, especially in the Russian Barents and Kara Seas. Presently,Russian gas is mostly piped to Europe in pipelines that not only have lim-


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ited capacity, but also nd a limited market. To sell gas protably, this gaswould either need to displace existing gas deliveries to Europe, or nd newmarket, presumably using LNG tankers to transport gas overseas. Thestudy o the geopolitical aspects o the gas resources o the High Northwill have to be related to this strategic condition.

Timeframe: 20082012Activities: our workshops/seminarsResearchers involved: Proessor Dag Harald Claes, UiO; Deputy Director Arild

Moe and Research Fellow Lars Gulbrandsen, FNI; Senior Advisor Mortenand Research Fellow Lars Gulbrandsen, FNI; Senior Advisor Morten, FNI; Senior Advisor MortenAnker, Econ Pyry; Proessor Rol Tamnes, Fellow Ingerid M. Opdahl andResearch Fellow Kristine Oerdal, IFS; Senior Fellow David Pumphrey, CSISOutput: 5 separate studies, partly overlapping with 3 articles or listed jour-nals.


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Responsible: Proessor Al Hkon Hoel, UiTParticipants: UiT, FNI, NORUT, Netherlands Institute or the Law o the Sea,Dalhousie University, University o Caliornia Santa Barbara (UCSB)

With its more than 2 mill. sq. km exclusive economic zone, and its marineindustries one o the main pillars o the economy, Norway is a major oceanpower. Most o these areas are in the High North; Norway is one o vecountries with waters and continental shel areas bordering the Arctic Ocean.Norways Arctic waters share borders with Denmark/Greenland, Iceland andRussia. The latter boundary, in the Barents Sea, is currently unresolved. AlsoNorways exercise o jurisdiction beyond the territorial waters o the Svalbardarchipelago is subject to debate. Under this Work Package, we will addressthree inter-related questions, the rst and second circumpolar in scope and the

third centring on the Barents Sea.The adequacy of the law of the sea and international environmental law to the

Arctic Ocean. The prospects or increased access to the Arctic Ocean interms o amongst other navigation, shing and petroleum activities, raisesresearch questions on the adequacies o the existing international legal re-gimes or regional maritime governance. First addressed are the legal ques-tions concerning the xing o the outer limits o the continental shel andthe delimitation o the Arctic maritime zones; thus also the identication

o areas o global commons. The second question are possible models orthe governance o these global commons and the Arctic marine environ-ment under the Law o the Sea and international environmental law.Great-power policies towards the Barents Sea (post-doc project). This studywill analyse the interests and policies o the USA, the UK and the EU to-wards jurisdictional issues in the Barents Sea, including Svalbard. Theseactors have traditionally been Norways major allies in high politics. Littlesystematic knowledge exists, however, about their interests and positions

Work Package 6Law of the Sea and Ocean Governance


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regarding the delimitation issues in the Barents Sea and jurisdiction in thewaters and on the shel o Svalbard. The study will draw on a combina-tion o policy and legal analysis, drawing on unique empirical materialcurrently being collected rom archives in the USA and UK.The history of Norwegian jurisdictional expansion (PhD project). Norwayhas been one o the major beneciaries o the developments in interna-tional ocean law. This project will explore Norways eorts to infuencethese developments in the post WWII era and in the UNCLOS III-process(19741982) in particular. It will examine how Norway has implementedthe rules emanating rom global agreements into domestic legislation. Par-ticular attention will be paid to the issues the developments have raised inthe Arctic, in terms o jurisdiction over maritime zones and in the manage-ment o natural resources.

The Work Package will also include a PhD course on Arctic Ocean Govern-ance, thereby contribute to the training o a uture generation o researchers.

Timeframe: 20082012

Activities: workshops/seminars, PhD courseResearchers involved: Proessor Al Hkon Hoel, Proessor Tore Henriksen,Proessor Hallvard Tjelmeland and Dr Torbjrn Pedersen, UiT; Senior FellowOlav Schram Stokke, FNI; Dr Eirik Mikkelsen, NORUT; Dr Erik Molenaar,Netherlands Institute or the Law o the Sea; Proessor David VanderZwaag,Dalhousie University; Proessor Oran R. Young, UCSBOutput: one PhD dissertation; post-doctoral project; 67 acticles in listed jour-nals


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Responsible:Senior Fellow Olav Schram Stokke, FNIParticipants:FNI, UiT, UiO, UCSB

Global environmental change aects the Arctic with particular orce, nota-bly with respect to temperature change and bioaccumulation o pollutantsthat pose severe health threats. The Arctic eight include two pivotal statesin global climate politics, the USA and Russia. Moreover, China has recentlyapplied or observer status in the Arctic Council, today a major institutionor pinpointing Arctic consequences o global warming and or generatingArctic premises in broader policy debates on mitigation and adaptation. ThisWork Package examines the adequacy o the Arctic institutional architectureand its interplay with broader institutions as a means o dealing with pressingenvironmental challenges. These challenges concern i) climate change; ii) long-

range transport of hazardous waste; iii) regional oil and gas development; andiv) nuclear safety.

The assessment rests on three pillars:

One is to examine the interests major actors have in the Arctic regionwithin these our issue areas, with emphasis on Norway, Russia, the EU,and the USA, attending also to the industry and civil-society groups thatparticipate in interest denition. What are the patterns o common and

competing interests in these issue areas and to what extent, i any, do therecent and upcoming changes in Russian and US administrations aectsuch patterns?A second pillar evaluates the problem-solving adequacy o the activitiesthat regional Arctic institutions specialise in. At present, the ocus o thoseinstitutions rests on knowledge generation, sot-norm promulgation andto some extent capacity enhancement.

Work Package 7Climate Change and Environmental Protection


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The third pillar builds on the other two and claries the political roomor, and desirability o, modiying the division o labour between Arcticinternational institutions and broader organisations and decision-makingvenues in the our issue areas. Among the issues is the question o whetherthe ramework the Law o the Sea Convention oers or Arctic govern-ance needs region-specic contributions, beyond the sot-law approachthat the Arctic Council has opted or.

Throughout the studies, implications or Norwegian interests are discussed.Whenever easible, close cooperation is envisaged with projects under WorkPackages 1 (Actors and Interests), 3 (US Interests and Policy), 4 (EU Interestand Policy) and 6 (Law o the Sea and Ocean Governance).

Timeframe: 20082012Activities: workshops/seminars, conerence panels.Researchers involved: Senior Fellow Olav Schram Stokke, Research FellowLars Gulbrandsen, Research Fellow ystein Jensen and Research Fellow SveinVigeland Rottem, FNI; Proessor Al Hkon Hoel, UiT; Proessor Arild Un-

derdal, UiO; Proessor Oran R. Young, UCSB.Output: 56 articles in listed journals; conerence and seminar papers and pres-entations; short eature articles aiming at specic users or the wider public.


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Responsible: Senior Fellow Paal Sigurd Hilde, IFSParticipant:IFS

All above described Work Packages deal with the issue o Norwegian interest.This notwithstanding, there is a need to synthesise the consequences and les-sons generated by the ndings o the above packages. This work package willin its entirety be sel-nanced by IFS.

The ollowing main research problems will be addressed, based on ndingsrom the other Work Packages:

What are the perceived interests o Norway in the High North, as seen

rom main Norwegian decision makers? What kinds o traditions guidethese perceptions?How does Norway pursue national interests in the complex geopoliticalenvironment o the High North today? How are Norwegian interests per-ceived by other main players in the region?Should Norwegian interests and priorities be adjusted in view o currentgeopolitical developments? Is there a potential or new thinking concern-ing political tools, cooperative architecture and strategic alliances?

Traditionally, Norwegian authorities have emphasised the ollowing catego-ries o interests in the High North:

Protection of national sovereignty, jurisdiction and exclusive rights. Norwe-gian authorities have emphasised clear and unequivocal maniestations oNorwegian sovereignty or sovereign rights when these can be seen to beactively challenged. At the same time, there has been a tendency to avoid

Work Package 8Deep Seas, Dire Straits:Norwegian High North Interests Revisited


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unnecessary clashes o opinion. The rationale seems to be that Norway isbetter served with a gradual development o habitual legitimacy.Stability, low tension. Norwegian authorities have tried to contribute to eas-ing geopolitical tension and promote stability and predictability in theregion. Thus, Norway avoids allied military activity that can provoke theRussians and promotes common PP exercises.Economic growth. The promotion o Norwegian commercial interests andimprovement o the livelihoods o Norwegians, particularly in NorthernNorway, have been important aims or Norwegian policies in the High

North. Norwegian authorities encourage economic exchange cross theborder.Sustainable resource management. A sound and sustainable management oboth marine harvesting and petroleum activities have been considered asimportant.Energy security. It is seen as a Norwegian interest that Norway stands outas a predictable, reliable and responsible energy producer, with commer-cial practices marked by transparency and respect or the mechanisms othe ree market. Norway has ended o all pressure to distribute petro-leum products on other terms than commercial ones.Environmental concerns, climate change. Norway promotes internationalcooperation on high standards on health, saety and the environment inthe High North. Lately Norway has also taken an active role in reducingglobal CO2 emissions in order to halt climate change.Managing the relationship with Russia. A central interest or Norway hasbeen to handle the relations to Russia successully. Harsh criticism o theeastern neighbour has not been considered to be in Norwegian interest.During the later years, Norway has tried to engage Russia in a positivesense. Apart rom the general aim o building a good relationship, thisengagement policy also has an economic dimension. The greatest successso ar is the agreement to let StatoilHydro in as one o the partners in de-veloping the Stockman gas eld although the long-term outcome o thisdeal remains to be seen.


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Involving Western countries. While Russia has oten been eager to promotecooperation with Norway on a bilateral basis, because o the asymmetrybetween the two parties, a central dictum in Norwegian policies towardsRussia has been to handle vital issues within multilateral rameworks andin close conjunction with traditional allies. Bilateral arrangements havebeen avoided, particularly arrangements based on condominium, jointventure, shared responsibility, common zones, and the like.

The work package will give a critical assessment o all these traditional percep-tions o national interest and the priorities between them.

Status of research:There is a substantial body o research on how these inter-ests have been pursued in a contemporary historical perspective, i.e. Norskutenrikspolitikks historie (History o Norwegian Foreign Relations), volumes5 and 6. There is a need or an updated analysis o how traditions meet withthe new challenges arising rom the growing importance o energy in the HighNorth, as well as recent development o Russian policies. Such a project will

constitute a very valuable contribution to the existing research on Norwegiannational interests in todays world.


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The research programme will give the highest priority to user value. A primaryaim o the programme is to create an updated body o knowledge on HighNorth policies that can be used by oreign policy decision makers in relevantministries, particularly the Norwegian Ministry o Foreign Aairs, as well asother research establishments, commercial actors, NGOs and the media.

The programme will contribute to:

New knowledge, new approaches and scholarly based policy recommen-dationsThe development o research competence in Norway and abroadThe involvement o international academic centres o excellence, as a sup-plement to the outreach activities o the Norwegian Ministry o ForeignAairs.Dialogue with primary users on issues o direct policy relevance.

Listed below are major activities or dissemination, networking and consulta-tion:

International conferencesThe programme will organise our internation-al conerences, one in Troms, one in Washington, DC, one in Berlin andone in Moscow. The venues will aim to gather experts, decision-makers,business representatives and military leaders.

Workshops and seminarsA number o smaller workshops and seminarswill be organised in order to discuss themes rom the various projects.One venue will seek to engage interested actors in Asia, possibly througha workshop in Beijing. IFS have several China-experts and a research net-work that can be involved in this eort.North Site A continuously updated internet site will serve to disseminateresults rom ongoing research, announce venues, and invite external views

Activities and Relevance


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and opinions. This website will also supply relevant graphic material, sta-tistics and maps. The North Site will contain a guide to the media onexperts that can comment on relevant topics.Network NorthThere is a lack o an international network or expertsworking on High North issues in various elds o research and develop-ment. The programme will take steps to establish such an interdisciplinarynetwork. In practice it will consist o a list o e-mail addresses, a regulare-mail newsletter with links to news on the North Site.Annual meetings with partnersMeetings to be organised in connection

with the international conerences.Advisory Board The research programme will establish an Advisory Boarddrawing its members rom government administration, industry (energyand sheries) and the military.Reference Group The programme will establish close cooperation withthe Norwegian Research Councils Reerence Group and present yearlyresults o the programme activities.

Overall, the programme will put energy into establishing a pool o competence

on a wide spectrum o High North issues that can serve Norwegian authori-ties and other interested groups. The website, the international network, theAdvisory Board and the Reerence Group will all be part o this eort. The aimis not only to produce new knowledge, but to establish arenas and channels tomake this inormation available to interested groups and the society at large.The researchers will write articles or the daily press, supply media commentson demand, participate in the general public debate, teach at colleges and uni-versities, and participate in conerences organised by other actors. The pool oexpertise and the international network garnered by the programme will be o

value or many years to come.


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