Geog 102 Topic 3

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GEOG 102 Population, Resources, and the Environment

Professor: Dr. ean!Paul Rodri"ue

Topic 3 Population Theory

# Demo"raphic $ransition

% &althusianism

' (eo!&althusianism

D 'reative Pressure

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Demographic Transition

1. Concept What is the demographic transition?

2. Stages What are the major stages of its occurrence?

3. Geographical Variations Does the demographic transition occurred at the same time and

places?

A

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1 Concept

!er!ie" # $social moderni%ation& of the reproduction process'

( )mpro!ed health care and access to famil* planning.( +igher educational le!els, especiall* among "omen.

( -conomic gro"th and rising per capita income le!els.

( r/ani%ation and gro"ing emplo*ment opportunities.

)n!ol!es mo!ing from one e0uili/rium to another'( )nitial e0uili/rium' +igh /irth and death rates.

( inal e0uili/rium' o" /irth and death rates.

heor* /ac4ed /* solid empirical e!idence. )n!ol!es four phases.

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Concept

-pidemiological ransition ocuses on changes o!er time in the causes of mortalit*

affecting certain populations'( +ealth conditions.

( Disease patterns. 5esult in a decline in death rates and an increase of life

e6pectanc*. he societ* goes through a transition from communicati!e

diseases to degenerati!e diseases.

1

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Concept

Stages in epidemiologicaltransition hree identifia/le stages in the

transition. 17 #ge of communicati!e

diseases. 27 #ge of receding pandemics. 37 #ge of degenerati!e and man8

made diseases.

'ommunicative Diseases

Recedin" Pandemics

De"enerative and &an!made Diseases

1

70 years

50 years

30 years)i"h *ertilit+

)i"h &ortalit+

)i"h *ertilit+

Decreasin" &ortalit+

o- *ertilit+

o- &ortalit+

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Survivorship of the British Population, 17thand !th

Centuries1

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Demographic Transition Theory

190018001700

Stage I Stage II Stage IVStage III

Birth Rate

Death Rate

2000

1

Demographic

Growth

Population

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Crude Birth "ates, #estern $urope, 17%1&1''11

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Crude Death "ates, #estern $urope, 17%1&1''11

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Stages in Demographic Transition

ta"e / ta"e // ta"e /// ta"e /

+igh /irth rates +igh /irth rates alling /irth rates o" /irth rates

9o or little amil* :lanning:arents ha!e man* children/ecause fe" sur!i!e;an* children are needed to

"or4 the landChildren are a sign of !irilit*5eligious /eliefs and culturaltraditions encourage largefamilies

amil* :lanning used# lo"er infant mortalit* rates)ndustriali%ation means lessneed for la/or

)ncreased desire for materialpossessions and less desirefor large families-mancipation of "omen

Children as lia/ilities insteadof assets

+igh death rates alling death rates o" death rates o" death rates

Disease and plague

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(ertility Declines, "eal and Pro)ected *1'%!&!%!+1

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3 eographical -ariations

De!eloped countries oo4 2=> *ears for most de!eloped economies to go through

their o"n demographic transition to 2>>>7. :opulation gro"th ne!er surpassed the capacit* of these

economies to accommodate it. De!eloping countries

Demographic transition started in the 2>thcentur*'( he most ad!anced segment after WW).

( he least ad!anced segment after WW)).

Ver* fe" ha!e "ent trough the transitor* mutation. ;ost of them ha!e a t*pe ))) demographic transition. @* the time the* reach t*pe )V, a huge amount a population "ill

/e added to their populations.

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Beginning of Demographic Transition3

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(ertility Transition in some Countries, 1'.&!!!3

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eographical -ariations

Will demographic transition occur all around the "orld? ;odel /ased upon the Western e6perience. -!idence underline that the process is li4el*. :ro/lems'

( he /ase population in the de!eloping "orld is large.( o" percentages of population increase "ill result in large num/ers of

additional people.( imited possi/ilities for immigration thcentur*7.

( 5eligious and cultural influences.

3

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/althusianism

1. Concept What are the principles of ;althusianism?

2. he ;althusian Crisis What does a ;althusian crisis in!ol!es?

3. Contemporar* )ssues

B

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1 Concept

Conte6t homas ;althus

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The /althusian Crisis

he $;althusian crisis& #!aila/le agricultural spaces are limited. echnical progresses

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Overexploitation


Population

Resources

Technological Innovation

$ime

2

uantit+ t2

t3

t1

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he ;althusian Crisis has not occurred ;althus has /een critici%ed on se!eral accounts during the last

2>> *ears. 5eligious !ie"

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3 Contemporary 0ssues

he ;althusian crisis toda* Demographic gro"th'

( @et"een 1AB> and 2>>>, three /illion persons "ere added to the glo/al

population.

( o sustain this gro"th, agricultural resources had to /e dou/led.

( 5e0uired housing space surpassed all that "as constructed since the

/eginning of man4ind.

#gricultural gro"th'( @et"een 1AB> and 1AA>, grain *ields has increased /* A2F "hile

culti!ated surfaces ha!e onl* increased /* F.( oresee a limit to gro"th in agricultural production.

Consumption gro"th. -n!ironmental degradation.

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Contemporary 0ssues

5ele!ance of the ;althusian theor* Was ;althus right or the trend in agricultural production "ill again

increase to surpass population gro"th? #re impro!ements in agricultural techni0ues enough to ans"er

demand? he ne6t 2= *ears "ill /e crucial and "ill /ring for"ard ans"ers

to these 0uestions. he "or4 of ;althus continues to /e important to demographers'

( )nfluence of man* contemporar* theorists from !arious academic

disciplines.( @uilt upon ;althusEs ideas and lin4ed them to modern sciences.

3

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eo&/althusianism

1. 9eo8;althusian Concepts +o" can the ;althusian theor* /e adapted to the current

situation?

2. he Commons )n "hich "a* common resources are used?

3. 9eo8;althusianism and +uman 5eproduction )s reproduction a right or pri!ilege?

C

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eo&/althusian Concepts

Carr*ing capacit* )ssue lin4ed "ith the carr*ing capacit* of land. imits to a/sor/ e!er8greater num/ers of people. :opulation gro"th has en!ironmental impacts.

Support of famil* planning, contraception and a/ortion. :opulation pro/lems cannot /e addressed through technolog*

/e*ond the short term.

!erpopulation

# multidimensional issue lin4ed "ith the carr*ing capacit*. 9um/ers should /e lin4ed "ith le!el of consumption. he nited States "ould /e more o!erpopulated than China.

1

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:opulation /om/ ast population gro"th seen as a threat'

( he "ord $/om/& o/!iousl* refer to the lethal character of the pro/lem.

@rought for"ard /* :aul -hrlich in the late 1AB>s.

;ost hird World countries "ere in the middle of theirdemographic transition at the time.

-hrlich and others continued the /asic ;althusian num/ers

game in "hich population gro"th outstrips food production. ;o!ed @e*ond ;althus in their consideration of man*

en!ironmental issues.

1

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imits to gro"th $Clu/ of 5ome&, 1A2 Scientific report on the limits to gro"th.

sed computer models for the first time'( :opulation gro"th, food per capita,

industrial output, resources and pollution. @laming huge "aste of resources /*

de!eloped economies. Supporting a %ero gro"th polic*. ;ain arguments'

( 5esources are in finite num/er.( Demographic gro"th cannot occur

indefinitel*.( ;ust stop at some point.

1

Population

Industrial output

Resources

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The Commons

Definition 5esources that "e share as a population'

( and and other inputs into the food production process.( ceans and their contents, particularl* fish as a food source.

( he atmosphere.

( Sources of energ*.( andscape for recreational purposes.

5esources of the commons are in finite 0uantities "hile access is

free

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The Commons

-6ample of using the commons Decision on "hether to increase the si%e of herd that gra%es on

common lands. # rational /eing see4ing to ma6imi%e his gain'

( :ositi!e component of adding animals is additional income from additionalanimals.

( 9egati!e component is the o!ergra%ing caused /* the additional animals.( he costs are shared /* those using the common gra%ing lands.

( Decision to add the e6tra animals to his herd.

( nfortunatel*, all of the other !illages "ill arri!e at the same conclusion,

do the same thing.

he outcome is the ruin to the en!ironment.

2

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The Commons2

Commonssustain !"#

1

Village

2

3

'attle "ra3in"4

%enefits: 51 each

'osts: !1 each

illa"e 1 2 6 7

Cattle 3 3 3 3

Commons 1 12 H 2

Cattle

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The Commons

he traged* of the commons reedom in a commons /rings ruin to all. #ll the resources "ill /e used.

Solutions :ri!ate propert*'

( 5emo!es some of the Commons from access.

( -ncourages conser!ation and "ise management.

( Vested interest in maintaining it for future use.

Collecti!e propert*'

( :arts of the Commons not possi/le to di!ide into pri!ate segments 8atmosphere, oceans, etc.

( Collecti!e

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#orld (ish Catch per Capita, 1'%!&1'''2

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Commercial arvests in the orth4est 5tlantic of

Some (ish Stoc6s, 1'%!&'% *in 1,!!! metric tons+2

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Caron $missions from (ossil (uel Burning, 17%1&!!12

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eo&/althusianism and uman "eproduction

+uman reproduction ;althus "as ad!ocating $moral restraint&'

( # religious /ias.

;odern contraception'( # tool of population control

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eo&/althusianism and uman "eproduction

reedom to /reed Clashes /et"een neo8;althusianism and human rights. 9Es Declaration of +uman 5ights'

( Defense of the indi!idual famil*Es right to determine famil* si%e.( Support the freedom to /reed for political reasons.

( e" go!ernments are a/le or "illing to enforce restrictions on the

reproduction of their populations.

+uman population control cannot /e achie!ed through !oluntar*

means.

With freedom to /reed comes e0ual o/ligations'( 5esponsi/ilit* to the "elfare of the children.( Difficult concept to grasp, especiall* /* an uneducated population.

-ach ne" indi!idual competes "ith other for resources.

3

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The Creative Pressure

1. Concept and )ssues What does the creati!e pressure theor* impl*?

2. imits to :roducti!it* What ma* /e the limits to producti!it*?

3. Creati!e :ressure !s. 9eo8;althusianism Can 9eo8;althusianism and creati!e pressure /e reconciled?

D

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Concept and 0ssues

Concept pposed to the ;althusian and

9eo8;althusian perspecti!es.

@rought for"ard in the earl* 1AB>s. Vie" shared /* se!eral economists.

:opulation has a positi!e impact oneconomic gro"th.

$9ecessit* is the mother of all

in!entions&. :opulation pressure forces the

finding of solutions'( #griculture.( -conom*.

1

Demographicgrowth

$igheroccupation

densities

Pressures toincrease

producti%ity

Inno%ations

Producti%itygrowth

&

Pro'lem

So

lution

(

utcome

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Concept and 0ssues

echnological inno!ation and agriculture )ntensification of agriculture. 9e" methods of fertili%ation. :esticide use.

)rrigation. ;ulti8cropping s*stems in "hich more than one crop "ould /e

reali%ed per *ear.

Creati!e pressure and glo/al population gro"th

Would lead to ne" producti!it* gains. +umans donEt deplete resources /ut, through technolog*, create

them. 5esources "ill /ecome more a/undant. +elp o!ercome shortage in food production and emplo*ment.

1

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8imits to Productivity

imits of food production /* en!ironmental factors Soil e6haustion and erosion. -!olutionar* factors such as the de!elopment of greater

resistance to pesticides.

Climate change. oss of producti!e soils due to land use con!ersion to other

purposes, such as ur/ani%ation. Water shortages and pollution.

imits /* technolog* ;a* /e a!aila/le /ut not shared. ;a*/e too e6pensi!e for some regions

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Creative Pressure vs9 eo&/althusianism3

Carrying capacity

Demographic transitionPopulation

Resources

)!st century

Creati%epressure

*n%ironmentaldegradation

!+th,)0th century

(eo!&althusianism

&althusianism

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Creative Pressure vs9 eo&/althusianism

9eo8;althusianism :opulation consumes resources. :opulation gro"th has

en!ironmental conse0uences. 9otion of carr*ing capacit*.

:opulation should /e controlled/* strict famil* planning policies.

!erpopulation lin4ed "ith le!els

of consumption.

Creati!e :ressure :opulation induces the creation

of resources and the su/stitution

to alternati!e sources. $9ecessit* is the mother of all

in!entions&. :opulation "ill adjust itself to the

0uantit* of a!aila/le resources.

3

Documents

Geog 102 Topic 3