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GENS 4421: Climate Change
Day 1 - Introduction
6 January 2010
IntroductionsInstructor: Tyler MacKenzie [email protected]
Office: cyberspace (I commute, but I will hang around Dept.’s of G&E or Biology when here)
How does this course work?Meet once a week to discuss directed topics in climate changeNot much lecturing (except first class)Mostly talking and student presentations
Most work is outside of class•Reading intensive•Self-directed research•Prep-ing presentations, term project•Thinking (in class too)
IntroductionsHow does this course work?
Class resources:
The GENS4421 Wiki:http://math.mmab.ca/wiki/Gens4421winter2010
Texts:$: Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming 2008. Michael E. Mann and Lee E. Kump. Pearson. 207 pages.FREE: IPCC AR4 SyR. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. 104 pages.
Class schedule, links to readings and movie files (of questionably legality), extra media (slides, data, etc.) and student presentation files will be on this.This class will be overwhelmingly internet-based and hopefully have very little paper.
IntroductionsHow does this course work?
Marking:
40% Class participation•Discussion (every class); leading discussions (three times)
•Twice: lead paper-reader, once: presentation of paper/proposal for term project
•Online (preparation, emailed submissions…)•Presentation of paper/proposal for term project
20% Midterm•Covers: “lectures”, READINGS, movies, student presentations
40% Term Project•Oral presentation of project near end of term•Written research report on project
So what is climate change?
Definition:
“…a change in the state of the climate that can be identified… and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.”
IPCC AR4 SyR
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So what is climate change?Many diciplines, how are we going to study it?
We’ll follow the vague organization of the textbook, which itself follows the organization of the assessment reports of the IPCC.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC
Working groups:WGI - Physical ScienceObservations, reconstructionsMechanismsProjectionsWGII - Impact, Adaptation, VulnerabilitySocietal/economicBiological/ecologicalWGIII - MitigationShort- and long-term strategiesEconomics of mitigation
So what is climate change?IPCC doesn’t cover everything.
We’ll also discuss a bit about politics, international relations, history of climate change science and skepticism and recent “green” trends.
Also spend a little time on other environmental issues less related to climate change.
History of climate change scienceIt’s “hot” now, but history is longer than you think.
Why was Copenhagen called COP15?
Why are we reading IPCC AR4?
What is the history of the IPCC anyway?
Why are we following IPCC?
History of climate change scienceWhat is the state of knowledge (in the class)?
•How GHGs work?
•Natural vs. anthropogenic?
•Spinoff effects, feedbacks, etc?
•Mitigation and adaptation efforts?
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Warming is unequivocal
Evidence:•Increased measured temperature since 1850•Melting of snowpack, glaciers and sea ice•Rising sea level
IPCC AR4 SyR
Climate change basics
Increased measured temperature since 1850
•Global average temperature increased 0.74˚ per century for 100 years ending in 2005•Increase is accelerating; 50 years ending 2005 = 1.3˚ per century•Increase is slowest over oceans, faster over land and much faster at high latitudes
IPCC AR4 SyR
Climate change basics
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ar4-wg1-faqs.pdf topic 3.1
Increased measured temperature since 1850
•Global average temperature increased 0.74˚ per century for 100 years ending in 2005•Increase is accelerating; 50 years ending 2005 = 1.3˚ per century•Increase is slowest over oceans, faster over land and much faster at high latitudes
IPCC AR4 SyR
Climate change basics
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Melting of snowpack, glaciers and sea ice
•Arctic ice shrinking 2.7%/decade since 1978
•But summer extent shrinking 7.4%/decade
•Most glaciers, on all continents, are receding
•Began in early 1800’s•Fastest in last hundred years
Climate change basics
IPCC AR4 SyR
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Melting of snowpack, glaciers and sea ice
•Arctic ice shrinking 2.7%/decade since 1978
•But summer extent shrinking 7.4%/decade
•Most glaciers, on all continents, are receding
•Began in early 1800’s•Fastest in last hundred years
Climate change basics
IPCC AR4 SyR
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Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier RecordsOerlemans; Science 3 March 2005
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Rising sea level
•Sea level rising steadily since measurements began >100 years ago•Rise is accelerating
•1961-2003 = 18cm/century•1961-2003 = 31cm/century
•Mostly due to thermal expansion of water, less due to melting of land-bound ice
Climate change basics
IPCC AR4 SyR
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What about NB?
Actual directly measured temps from Environment Canada (average of 8 stations in NB).
This shows “temperature anomaly”.
Compared to NASA results for all Northern Hemisphere, NB is worse… why?
Local climate change?
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-1
0
1
2
1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020
NB average annual
decadal running average
GISTEMP-Northern Hemisphere
What about NB?
Rates of change:
1.05˚/century over whole time series
1.49˚/century over past 40 years
Change in winter temps is faster than summer temps.
But it’s only a degree!…
Local climate change?
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-1
0
1
2
1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020
NB average annual
decadal running average
GISTEMP-Northern Hemisphere
“We just had the coldest day in xxx years, that global warming is bunk…”
“Those (expletive) scientists can’t predict the weather 10 days from now, so how do they predict climate 50 years from now?”
FAQ: What is relationship of climate and weather? (ar4-wg1-faqs.pdf)
Mean Daily Temperature on 21 Dec 1871 to 2009 in Fredericton NB
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0
5
10
15
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
First and last 40 years in Fredericton:Temp range:
1871-1910: -23.3˚ to 4.8˚1970-2009: -23.5˚ to 4.8˚
Mean Daily Temperature on 21 Dec 1871 to 2009 in Fredericton NB
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0
5
10
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1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Day to day variation is high and difficult to predict. Average temperature is changing and can be explained with higher accuracy.
mean temp:1871-1910: -9.77˚1970-2009: -7.46˚Trend: +2.4˚/century
FAQ: What is relationship of climate and weather? (ar4-wg1-faqs.pdf)
First and last 40 years in Fredericton:Temp range:
1871-1910: -23.3˚ to 4.8˚1970-2009: -23.5˚ to 4.8˚
What about NB (again)?
Coincident with rise in winter temperatures, there is a marked decline in accumulated snow.
In 50 years, average snow-on-ground in Fredericton during Jan to March has declined by >60%.
Ideas why?
Local climate change?
Average snow on ground (cm) Fredericton between 1 Jan and 31 Mar
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Climate change skepticismWhat are some major arguments against CC?
•Science (observations, etc.)?
•Natural vs. anthropogenic?
•Conspiracy?
MOVIE TIME
Questions from movie
Introduction to term project ideas
IPCC AR4 SyR topic 1 pp. 26-33IPCC WG1 SPM pp. 1-9
Text section 1 (pp. 6-75)(corresponds to WG1 - Science Basis)
Readings for next day
