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Top 10 Strategic Predictions for 2017 and Beyond:

Surviving the Storms of

Digital Disruption

Jenny BeresfordResearch Director

Office of the CIO

@zeitjen

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The Scale of Digital Disruption Is Increasing

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They used to come out of nowhere. Now they cover

large areas over time.

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Predictions About the Future IncreasinglyBecome PredictionsAbout What DisruptsOur Lives

Future Disruption ShouldBe Measured by Intensity

Recognize

Prioritize

Respond

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Enhanced Fujita Scale

EF065-85

EF186-110

EF3136-165

EF4166-200

EF5220+

EF2111-135

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Digital Disrupter Scale Secondary Effects

DD51,000,000s

Autonomous AIUrban Design, Insurance, Laws, Car Ownership

DD4100,000s

3D PrintingOrgans, Manufacturing, End Chinese Dominance?

DD31,000s

Conversational UX and Bots

Teaching, Literacy, Social Engagement

DD2100s

Remote DronesDelivery, Surveillance, Inspection

DD110s

More GamesAugmented Gaming

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By 2020, 100 Million Consumers Will Shop in

Augmented Reality (AR)

Recognize: AR games are the beginning.

1

Prioritize: Smartphones Head-Mounted Displays Tablets

Respond: Deploy ARfor shopping.

Near-Term Flag: By YE17, one in five leading global retail brands deploy AR.

Analysis by: Noah Elkin

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ReasonAnalyze

Last Year, We Postulated That …

The "Robos" Have Already Begun to Rise

Machines will create significant amounts of business content

Generate Inform

Now, "bots" will be a significant part of our reality.

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By 2020, the average person will have more conversations with bots than with their spouse.

Who Will You Talk To?

By 2020, 30% of Web Browsing Sessions Will

Be Done Without a Screen 2

Recognize: "Voice-first" interactions are here..

Analysis by: Andrew Frank

Prioritize: Conversational UX Bot Interactions Machine Learning

Respond: Build industry usecases and open APIs.

Near-Term Flag: By YE17, 5%of consumer-facing websitesfeature audio interfaces(aka voice-enabled "chatbots").

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By 2020, smart agents will facilitate

40%

Last Year,We Predicted That …

of mobile interactions, and thepost-app era will begin to dominate.

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20% of Brands Will Abandon Their Mobile

Apps by 2019 3

Recognize: Apps, on average,are not great investments.

Prioritize: Mobile Web Mobile Apps Expired Apps

Respond: Build New ProgressiveWeb Apps and Instant Apps.

Near-Term Flag: At YE17, the number of branded applications realizing monthly usage growth declines from YE16.

Analysis by: Charles S. Golvin

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Adapt Replicate Evolve Spawn

By 2020, Algorithms Will Positively Alter the

Behavior of over 1 Billion Global Workers4

Recognize: Algorithms usebehavioral, psychological, socialand cognitive science.

Prioritize: Catalog Broker Share Protect Algorithms

Respond: Solve talent retention and attraction with pervasive algorithms.

Near-Term Flag: By YE17, increases in profit margins due to positively altered employee behaviors are reported.

Analysis by: Gavin Tay

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Business Innovation will create extraordinary

change from mundane concepts.

Consider This …

DD4

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The Mundane

Validation

Voting

Cryptography

Transactions

The Magic

Visibility

Community

Privacy

Trust

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By 2022, a Blockchain-Based Business Will Be

Worth $10 Billion5

Recognize: Blockchain applicationsare immature, but not for long.

Prioritize: Ledger Experiments Blockchain Ledgers Smart Contracts

Respond: Blockchain roadmapsmust include transaction efficiency.

Near-Term Flag: By YE17, deployment of multimode blockchains across industries

Analysis by: David Furlonger, Martin Reynolds, Ray Valdes

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Digital Giants Are Everywhere

By 2021, 20% of All Activities in Which an Individual Engages Will Involve at Least One of the Top Seven Digital Giants

6

Recognize: The top seven digital giants are Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon,Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent.

Prioritize: Make It Digital Make It Programmable Make It Smart

Respond: Join, or compete with, digital giants' platforms and ecosystems.

Near-Term Flag: By 2018,at least two digital giant brands per kitchen

Analysis by: Hung LeHong

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Secondary effects

will be more

disruptive than the

initial digital change

Consider This …

DD5

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Audience Profile Data

FacialRecognition

EmotionDetection

VoiceRecognition

Through 2019, Every $1 That Enterprises Invest in Innovation Will Require an Additional $7 inCore Execution

7

Recognize: How far your "legacy" IT environment is behind

Prioritize: Modernization Innovation Transformation: Not the other way round

Respond: Evaluate Mode 2 in termsof Mode 1 investments.

Analysis by: Allie Young, Pat Sullivan

Near-Term Flag: By 2018,IT services providers will increase revenue from modernization work by 30%

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Last Year, We Postulated …

… every minute on new IoT hardware

2017

$2.5Mspent …

2021

1MIoT devices …

… purchased andinstalled every hour

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Through 2020, IoT Will Increase Data Center Storage Demand by Less Than 3%8

Recognize: Most IoT-generated datawill not be stored or retained.

Prioritize: In-flight data Distributed analysis Shared transactions

Respond: Investigate distributed data analysis.

Analysis by Peter Middleton and Joseph Unsworth

Near-Term Flag: By YE17,no significant new regulatory requirement to store IoT data

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By 2022, the IoT Will Save Consumers and Businesses $1 Trillion a Year in … 9

… Maintenance

… Services

… Consumables

Recognize: Predictive maintenance saves 10% to 20% over preventive maintenance.

Prioritize: Fix expensive assets Capture quick savings Seek short payback periods

Respond: Identify costs and targeta 10% reduction with IoT.

Analysis by: Benoit Lheureux; Martin Reynolds; Alfonso Velosa

Near-Term Flag: By YE20, suppliers will provide software models of physical assets

Last Year, We Predicted That by 2018 …

2Memployees will be

required to wear health

and fitness tracking

devices as a condition

of employment

Analysis by: Manjunath Bhat and Angela McIntyre

By 2020, 40% of Employees Can Cut Their Healthcare Costs by Wearing a Fitness Tracker10

Recognize: People are nowherenear physically active enough.

Prioritize: Corporate Health Monitoring Fitness Programs Fitness Coaching

Respond: Align metrics to outcomes for employees in your industry.

Near-Term Flag:By YE17, multinational corporations sponsor the use of wearable fitness tracking devices.

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Your Mantra for the 21st Century

Make it Smart!

Make it Programmable…

Make it Digital…

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Action Plan

CIOs, CDOs, and Digital Strategists

Adopt conversational user experience (UX), bots and artificial intelligence (AI).

Learn best practices from the "digital giants"

Look for secondary effects that will change the way people behave

Use Gartner's predictions as planning assumptions for your strategic plans

Evaluate near-term flags that indicate whether a prediction is trending toward

truth or away from it.

Position predictions with longer time horizons as having a lower probability of

coming true than those with shorter time horizons.

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The Future Is Ours

© 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or it's affiliates.

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