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http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm. FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST ASIA UP TO 2020. Using CMAQ and REAS*. *Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC. Kazuyo Yamaji and Hajime Akimoto. ([email protected]). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 1
FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST
ASIA UP TO 2020
FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST
ASIA UP TO 2020
Kyushu University, Japan
Kazuyo YamajiKazuyo Yamaji and Hajime Akimotoand Hajime Akimoto
Toshimasa Ohara and Jun-ichi KurokawaToshimasa Ohara and Jun-ichi Kurokawa
Itsushi UnoItsushi Uno
Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC), JAMSTEC, Japan
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Using CMAQ and REAS*Using CMAQ and REAS*Using CMAQ and REAS*Using CMAQ and REAS**Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC*Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC*Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC*Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 2
1980 1990 2000 2010 202010
20
30
40
50N
Ox
emis
sion
s in
Asi
a (T
g/yr
)
YEAR
REAS (past)
van Aardenne et al. (1999)IIASA (past)
NOx emission trends in AsiaNOx emission trends in AsiaNOx emission trends in AsiaNOx emission trends in Asia
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm
1980 1990 2000 2010 202010
20
30
40
50N
Ox
emis
sion
s in
Asi
a (T
g/yr
)
YEAR
REAS (past)
van Aardenne et al. (1999)IIASA (past)
REAS (PFC)REAS (REF)REAS (PSC)
base year for future prediction
policy failure case (PFC), reference (REF), policy succeed case (PSC)
Future predictionFuture predictionbase year, 2000base year, 2000
not consider rapid not consider rapid increase, 2000-2003increase, 2000-2003
WORSE WORSE CASE? CASE? WORSE WORSE CASE? CASE?
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 3
Objective of this simulationObjective of this simulationObjective of this simulationObjective of this simulationTo investigate future OTo investigate future O33 changes caused by changes caused by
anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB emission changes) emission changes)
Objective of this simulationObjective of this simulationObjective of this simulationObjective of this simulationTo investigate future OTo investigate future O33 changes caused by changes caused by
anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB emission changes) emission changes) Simulation casesSimulation casesSimulation casesSimulation cases
Past
Future
Met.Boundary condition
Emission Inventory
Anthrop.VOC
(natural)BB
2000
2000
CHASER
CHASER
REAS_2000
REAS_2010/2020
GEIA_1990 ACESS_2000
GEIA_1990 ACESS_2000
For the other For the other countriescountries
REF (reference)
Future emission scenarios (REAS)*Future emission scenarios (REAS)*Future emission scenarios (REAS)*Future emission scenarios (REAS)*
For China, using 3 emission For China, using 3 emission scenariosscenarios
PSC (policy succeed case)REF (reference) PFC (policy failed case) http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm
*Ohara et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2007
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 4
NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr) NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr) NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr) NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr)
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 5
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm
NOx and NMVOC emission mapsNOx and NMVOC emission mapsNOx and NMVOC emission mapsNOx and NMVOC emission maps2000 2000 Emission changes (2000-2020)Emission changes (2000-2020)
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 6
- Regional Chemistry Transport Model -
CMAQ v4.4CMAQ v4.4CMAQ v4.4CMAQ v4.4Gas-Phase Chemistry: SAPRC-99SAPRC-99
Aerosol Chemistry: AERO3AERO3
Outline of this simulationOutline of this simulationOutline of this simulationOutline of this simulation
RAMS v4.4RAMS v4.4RAMS v4.4RAMS v4.4
-Meteorological Field--Meteorological Field--Meteorological Field--Meteorological Field-
- Boundary condition -- Boundary condition -- Boundary condition -- Boundary condition -
- Emission Inventory -- Emission Inventory -- Emission Inventory -- Emission Inventory -
NCEP1x1 met. dataNCEP1x1 met. data
Anthropogenic: (annually)2000, 2010, 2020
Biomass burning: (annually)ACESS ACESS 2000
Biogenic NMVOC:(monthly) GEIA GEIA 1990
in put (off line)
in put (off line)
CHASERCHASER CHASERCHASER Sudo et al., 2002
(every 3 hour)
in put (off line)(monthly)
REASv1.1 (FRCGC)REASv1.1 (FRCGC)REASv1.1 (FRCGC)REASv1.1 (FRCGC)
(Global Chemistry Transport Model)
(2000) (2000)
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 7
RAMS RAMS domaindomain
CMAQ CMAQ domaindomain
- MODEL AREA -- MODEL AREA -- MODEL AREA -- MODEL AREA -Outline of this simulationOutline of this simulationOutline of this simulationOutline of this simulation
Area: East AsiaArea: East Asia[CMAQ domain][CMAQ domain]Horizontal Resolution: 78×68 (grids), 80km meshVertical Resolution: 14 layers (up to 23km)
[RAMS domain][RAMS domain]Horizontal Resolution: 100×90(grids), 80km meshVertical Resolution: 22 layers (up to 23km)
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 8
Comparison of Comparison of modeled and observed Omodeled and observed O33
Comparison of Comparison of modeled and observed Omodeled and observed O33
Tappi
Happo
Oki
Hedo
Mt. Tai
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 9
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0.21 0.40 0.72 0.65 0.44 0.45 0.64 0.47 0.53 0.55 0.68 0.41
correlation coefficientscorrelation coefficients: R=0.61 (for YR.): R=0.61 (for YR.)JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0.17 0.72 0.37 0.52 0.57 0.81 0.77 0.52 0.90 0.38 0.46 0.49
correlation coefficientscorrelation coefficients: R=0.72 (for YR.): R=0.72 (for YR.)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0.28 0.58 0.63 0.58 - 0.82 0.74 0.53 0.66 0.44 0.69 0.29
correlation coefficientscorrelation coefficients: R=0.74 (for YR.): R=0.74 (for YR.)JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0.45 0.43 0.41 0.85 0.81 0.90 0.85 0.56 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.74
correlation coefficientscorrelation coefficients: R=0.85 (for YR.): R=0.85 (for YR.)
Observation data from Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia, EANET
Japanese sites in Japanese sites in 20002000
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 10
Mt. Tai
Observation data from Pochanart et al., 2007
Chinese site (Mt. Tai),Chinese site (Mt. Tai), obs. (2004,2005) and model (2000)obs. (2004,2005) and model (2000)
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 11
RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS- Yearly averaged O- Yearly averaged O3 3 (below 2km) -(below 2km) -- Yearly averaged O- Yearly averaged O3 3 (below 2km) -(below 2km) -
OO33 changes (2000-2010) changes (2000-2010)OO33 changes (2000-2010) changes (2000-2010)
OO33 changes (2000-2020) changes (2000-2020)OO33 changes (2000-2020) changes (2000-2020)
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 12
RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS- Monthly averaged O- Monthly averaged O33 (<2km) - (<2km) -- Monthly averaged O- Monthly averaged O33 (<2km) - (<2km) -
-2020REF--2020REF--2020REF--2020REF-
-2000--2000--2000--2000-
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 13
RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS- Monthly averaged O- Monthly averaged O33 in June (<2km) - in June (<2km) -- Monthly averaged O- Monthly averaged O33 in June (<2km) - in June (<2km) -
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 14
20-80 ppm h
70-80ppmh
75-85ppmh
AOT40 AOT40 (Accumulated Exposure Over Threshold of 40ppb)AOT40 AOT40 (Accumulated Exposure Over Threshold of 40ppb)
- For tree: Critical Level 8-21ppm h -- For tree: Critical Level 8-21ppm h -- For tree: Critical Level 8-21ppm h -- For tree: Critical Level 8-21ppm h -
80-120*ppmh * More than 5 times of Critical Level
1-4 times of Critical Level
Critical Level
RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 15
CEC: Central East China
S1:2010PSC, R1:2010REF, F1:2010PFC, S2:2010PSC, R2:2010REF, F2:2010PFC
RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTSWhich precursor’s change, NOx or NMVWhich precursor’s change, NOx or NMV
OC, is sensitive to OOC, is sensitive to O33 growth? growth? Which precursor’s change, NOx or NMVWhich precursor’s change, NOx or NMV
OC, is sensitive to OOC, is sensitive to O33 growth? growth?
*with large anthropogenic emission increases !!*with large anthropogenic emission increases !!larger NOx sensitivity and smaller NMVOC sensitivity larger NOx sensitivity and smaller NMVOC sensitivity
over CEC in June.over CEC in June.
The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 16
SUMMARYSUMMARY SUMMARYSUMMARY Past and future O3 over East Asia has been simulated by using CMAQ and REAS.
This model system can capture O3 concentrations at monitoring sites in East Asia.
REAS PFC with large NOx and NMVOC increases in China will bring about higher O3 in 2020. But, NOx decrease (REAS PSC in 2020) will be helpful to decrease of O3 in China. Additionally, NOx decreases will be also helpful to control O3 increase over East Asia.
Especially in June (with high O3), REAS REF and PFC will bring about considerable high O3 at the North China Plain in 2020.
Based on these model experiments, over CEC in June, O3 concentration is largely affected by NOx emission increases but is not sensitive to NMVOC emission increases.