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7/31/2019 Future of Automotive Powertrains
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Future of Automotive PowertrainsTrends and Developments in engine and transmission technology
Authors
Martin van Besouw Senior Consultant ATCStijn Huijbers Consultant ATC
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. THE REGIONAL AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY ___________________________________________________ 32. CURRENT SITUATION ___________________________________________________________________ 4
2.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 4
2.2 Legislation _________________________________________________________________________ 4
2.3 Current Technologies ________________________________________________________________ 6
2.3.1 Gasoline engine technology ________________________________________________________ 6
2.3.2 Diesel engine technology __________________________________________________________ 8
2.3.3 Hybrid and EV technology _________________________________________________________ 9
2.3.4 Transmission technology __________________________________________________________ 9
3. FUTURE PERSPECTIVE ___________________________________________________________________ 9
3.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 9
3.2 Passenger cars _____________________________________________________________________ 10
3.3 Transmission development __________________________________________________________ 12
3.4 Truck and Bus _____________________________________________________________________ 13
4. IMPACT ON REGION ___________________________________________________________________ 14
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1. THE REGIONAL AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
The Automotive industry in the EU region Maas Rhine (EMR) is a significant Hot spot within the European
Automotive Sector (figure 1). In this region alone over 22.400 people are active within R&D and production.
Within this group of engineers and companies a large number is involved in the development and production
of engines, transmissions or subsystems in the field of automotive powertrains. Companies like Ford Research
Aachen, Bosch Transmission Technology (formerly VDT) and DAF Trucks are key players in their segment of
the global market place. In addition a group of companies and institutes are working on innovative powertrain
solutions for the future being mechanical or electro mechanical of nature with a strong link to controls (e.g.
FEV, DTI, TNO, GIF, Flanders Drive).
Figure 1: EMR Region
All this is supported by educational institutes and academic research on both Aachen, the Netherlands,
Flanders and Wallonia.
The automotive industry changed during the past 10 years in the EMR. The truck industry flourished while the
car industry had to cope with deteriorating market conditions. With the disappearance of the by Daimler-
Chrysler introduced model, Smart ForFour at NedCar the total volume of cars produced in the Netherlands
dropped significantly. In addition the volume of cars produced in the Flanders region (Ford, Volvo, Opel, Audi)
also decreased. The truck industry with companies such as Volvo, Scania, Terberg, Ginaf and DAF Trucks
experienced a volume growth in production unlike any other period in the past. Direct related subcontractorsto these Truck- and Car-companies went through nearly the same tendencies.
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Next to the OEMs, the subcontractor companies with a more European or even global approach, could also
profit from the economical growth of the European and global automotive industry. In 2008 however all
things changed: due to the economic downturn both car and truck manufactures suffered and some annual
turnover losses of over 50% are reported. 2011 Seems to become a better year but economies are still fragile.
If we focus more on the content of powertrains inside these companies, we see a different scenario: DAF
Trucks became center of excellence with regard to engine technology for the entire PACCAR Group leading to
the development of engines for the US market by the company in Eindhoven. This could only be achieved with
significant investments and increase in resources. In Aachen FEV created growth by becoming one of the
leading engineering companies in the world in the field of powertrains expanding their portfolio from only
engines to complete powertrains including hybrids, EVs and their control. Research and education has picked
up as well: driven by an increase in required technology research programs such as High Tech Automotive
Systems (HTAS) new industrial partnerships have been formed and educational institutes created new
bachelor and master tracks to cope with the industries demand for highly educated engineers in the field of
mechanical, electrical and control engineering.
2. CURRENT SITUATION
2.1 Introduction
The current engine and transmission line up is changing rapidly: hybridization, electrification, downsizing,
down speeding are just a couple of technology paths being introduced in the last decade. This leads to parallel
development of used technologies. The problem with this multiple engineering tracks is that it is straining
resources at the OEMs and suppliers. The economic crisis that struck the world in 2008 and from which we
are slowly recovering, did not help the financial situation in the automotive industry either. It is expected that
this differentiation will continue for the next decade which is further discussed in chapter 3 future
perspective. One primary driver for the increase in development and differentiation in the powertrain area is
legislation.
2.2 Legislation
Both in the truck industry and the passenger car industry technical challenges are driven by legislation:
legislation in emissions of hydrocarbons (THC), Carbon monoxide (CO), Carbon dioxide (CO2 = linked to fuel
consumption) and Nitro oxides (NOx) and Particular Mass (Pm) being either voluntary or enforced are pushing
the technology envelop. Graph 1 shows the global emissions levels for diesel engines. Graph 2 shows the
answer to these requirements from Mercedes Benz. Like other OEMs Mercedes shows that although the
emission levels and fuel consumption targets are tough to reach, OEMs have increased the power density and
improved the efficiency of all its passenger cars with increased safety and comfort.
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Graph 1: Diesel Emission Standards worldwide Graph 2: Power density versus fuel
consumption improvements overtime
With regard to the challenges ahead of us: for diesel engines (both truck and passenger car) it is clear that
meeting the emission standards will be a big challenge especially without a negative trade off on fuel
consumption. An increase in system cost seems unavoidable. For gasoline engines the biggest challenge lies in
the CO2 (=fuel consumption) targets set by the EU. Graph 3 shows the gasoline engines current CO2 emission
level compared to its inertia weight class as homologated. It is clear that we are far from the fleet proposal
for 2019 and even for premium manufactures of bigger cars the 2012 fleet average can only be achieved with
proper technology measures that are underway.
Graph 3: Gasoline powered vehicle CO2 emission vs Inertia weight class
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2.3 Current Technologies
2.3.1 Gasoline engine technology
As stated before there is a general drive for emission reduction. Technology paths chosen are downsizing(mainly gasoline engines), advanced aftertreatment systems (mainly diesel engines), hybridization and the full
electric vehicle. Looking at the technologies with gasoline engines the twin air engine developed and
produced by Fiat Powertrain Technologies (FPT) can be highlighted as a state of the art example of modern
engine technology and the drive for CO2 reduction on gasoline engines. The 0.9l displacement PFI engine uses
downsizing and advanced valvetrain control to reduce pumping losses and at the same time uses
turbocharger technology and advanced engine block design to reach power levels above normally aspirated
engines of 50% larger displacement and at the same time create a fuel consumption and CO2 reduction of
25% compared to that same NA engine. When selecting the number of cylinders an analysis is made of
efficiency versus displacement (Graph 4). It shows that FPT has chosen a 2-cylinder engine as a basis due to
the defined small displacement of only 0.9l.
Graph 4: Thermodynamic efficiency vs engine architecture
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Other manufactures make similar choices on their slightly bigger engines so the graph seems to be a good
indication. FPT also used the MultiAir technology on their engines. These variable valve actuation systems are
not new (e.g BMW valvetronic has been in production for many years), but the amount of flexibility this
system provides and the modular structure of the system that allows it to be a added on current production
engines is unique. Graph 5 provides a short explanation of the system.
Graph 5: FPT MultiAir
The 2-cylinder high boost concept brought up a number of problems that are new to the powertrain
developers. Due to the pulsation effect of the 2-cylinder engine normal development benches for the
turbocharger could not be used: the compressor map that was defined in the common procedure did not
match the real world application results on the dyno. It showed that surge was encountered much sooner
than anticipated. Another issue dealt with was NVH: the vibration levels and general noise pattern of a highly
boosted small 2-cylinder is very different to a common 4-cylinder engine. FTP was able to counter act on some
of the negative aspects by using their multiair technology and especially during idle the vibration of the enginecould be reduced significantly. Still the NVH properties of the smaller 2- and 3-cylinder engines are different to
the current lineup. During interviews with premium car manufactures they stated that 2- or 3-cylinder
engines, although they might be the best solution for CO2 reduction, might not meet the requirements set out
by these premium manufactures when it comes down to NVH.
The last problem which is mentioned by the majority of gasoline engine developers that work on downsized
boosted engines are abnormal combustion phenomena. This combustion behavior that leads to emission
peaks and engine damage due to uncontrolled pressure fluctuation, occurs at higher specific load and low
engine speeds an area that was never examined in the past. This uncontrolled combustion cannot be detected
by current knock systems and ignition retard does not solve this problem in all cases. Ford noted that multiple
design chases to the combustion chamber, software calibration and internal cooling had to be made to reach
the desired torque levels without the abnormal combustion occurring in the real world. These design changes
are incorporated in their new EcoBoost engines.
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2.3.2 Diesel engine technology
Another area of interest to all engine developers (being diesel or gasoline) is internal friction reduction,
basically insight in reduction of friction in part load (passenger car) or all loads (trucks) is increasing and the
newer engines are showing a reduction of 40% on wall to piston ring friction by introducing new honing
processes allowing the piston ring pre-tension to be reduced by up to 50%. These actions lead to a reduction
of fuel consumption and CO2 of roughly 1% in the European driving cycle (NEDC).
Losses in the drive of auxiliary systems are tackled by introducing variable waters and oil pumps that allow the
precise balance between pump volume/pressure and engine condition to be controlled and thus not waste
energy on driving them. This control of the water pump also allows more advanced heat management: during
cold start up of the engine the water pump is disconnected altogether and the coolant is only circulating in
the block by thermo siphon process this allows the engine to warm up quicker and this leads to a CO2
reduction. In addition the water pump does not need to be driven anymore reducing the auxiliary drive losses
in the NEDC since the test starts at 20 C.
As mentioned before both gasoline and diesel car engine development is driven by meeting emission
legislation while at the same time maintaining or even improving the excellent efficiency of the diesel engine.
System cost is a key issue: if you look at the aftertreatment system of a modern diesel engine it is clear that
there is almost a chemical factory on board and that comes at a price. On the other hand performance levels
of diesel engines have increased signifactly allowing smaller diesel engines to be fitted reducing for instance
frictional losses and improving fuel consumption. Next to advances in the combustion system (e.g. increase of
injection pressure, improved control of the injection system and improvement to the thermodynamic system)
there are 3 methods being used to reduce emissions on diesel engines: EGR (exhaust gas recirculation), SCR
(selective catalytic reduction) and DPF (diesel particle Filters) often the systems are used in combination to
find the optimum solution. Generally speaking the SCR, DPF system has become mainstream in the truck
industry (combined with low EGR rates). Engines that only use EGR (like Navistar in the US) have the
disadvantages that they require more cooling area (to
cool the high amounts of EGR) and that the internal
contamination is causing durability issues.
We also see new methods being introduced like low
pressure EGR. Here the exhaust gas is fed back into
the intake system before the turbo compressor.
Advantage is that the amount of EGR can be better
controlled with lower pumping losses (often inconventional EGR set ups a throttle valve is required
to make sure that the exhaust gas is entering the
intake manifold at higher boost pressures that exceed
the exhaust gas pressure) in addition mixing of
exhaust gas with fresh air is no longer a problem due
to the turbo compressor being a mixing device and
last but not least the exhaust gas fresh air mixture is
cooled by the intercooler allowing smaller EGR cooler
to be fitted. Renault has introduced this system on
their new 1.6DCI engine but had to make numerouschanges to the material spec of the intercooler and
ducting to overcome contamination and component failure due to the acids present in the exhaust gas.
Graph 6: RSA 1.6 DCI EGR system lay out
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2.3.3 Hybrid and EV technology
Toyota stunned the automotive industry with their introduction of the Prius in 1997. With the introduction of
new Prius models and the application of the torque split hybrid technology to other models, Toyota became
market leader when it comes to hybrid technology. The Toyota system has been explained numerous times so
it will not be discussed in this trend analysis. It is however interesting to see that new hybrid systems are
under development to enhance performance or to reduce fuel consumption. Many of these systems are
developed in such a way that they can be added to existing powertrains (e.g the BMW and PSA 4wd hybrid
systems). Both PSA and BMW foresee further development of these systems using both diesel and gasoline
engines.
The last couple of years we have seen an increase in the development of EVs with the introduction of lithium
ion cells for automotive applications the first mass produced models (Nissan LEAF, Mitsubishi i-MiEV) are
entering the market in 2011.
2.3.4 Transmission technology
In the field of transmission technology a lot of development has taken place all driven by emission reduction
and fuel consumption improvements. The first new product to be introduced in the late 90s was the
automated manual transmission: a manual transmission automated by the use of clutch and transmission
actuators. The cost price of these transmission was lower that ATs and fuel consumption in the NEDC cycle
outperformed the MT variants due to optimized shifting points. Lately we see a reduction of this transmission
type and this is caused by severe drivability issues on especially the lower cost variants. Another transmission
that entered the market and also caused a reduction on the amount of AMT sold was the DSG (or DCT)
transmission developed by Volkswagen, this transmission combined the performance of the MT with the
drivability of a premium AT. Multiple OEMs have since developed a variant of this transmission and it seems
likely that this transmission type is here to stay. If we look at the CVT transmission we see the
typical markets where this type of transmission is doing well: Japan. This is CVT market number 1 with a lot of
transient traffic and a large volume of smaller cars. Furthermore the NVH behavior of a CVT powertrain seems
to fit the Japanese customer better (higher frequencies, no booming noise).
If we take a look at ATs we have seen the mass introduction of 6 speed ATs that enable down speeding of the
engine and thus reducing emission levels. This is combined with flex lock up to reduce booming noise and
further control emissions. In addition we have seen advanced Diesel/AT combinations especially on premium
European cars.
3. FUTURE PERSPECTIVE
3.1 Introduction
As mentioned before the primary driver for the future are emissions (being CO2 (fuel consumption) or the
other components). Graph 7 shows a scenario for CO2 emission reduction levels for mobility as a whole for
the long term. A combination of individual transportation and an increase in public transportation is foreseen.
With the current growth of the global megacities this seems to be a valid scenario.
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Graph 7: CO2 emission reduction
The possible used technology from the powertrain side to achieve this is highlighted in the next chapter.
3.2 Passenger cars
If we want to analyze potential future trends it is best to have a look at the roadmaps of some of the OEMs
and TR1 suppliers. For example Graph 8 shows the social economic drivers and technology roadmap of
Daimler.
Graph 8: Daimler technology path
The current multiple development paths are likely to continue. Hybridization, EVs and also new fuels will
make an increasing contribution to meet the targets set.
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The gasoline engine will still have a large role to play; due to the increased emission limits for NOx and PM the
diesel system costs will further increase. It is also likely that both engine types will come closer to each other
with HCCI concepts being under development. If we look at gasoline engines it is likely that further downsizing
will take place (already proposed via downsize concept by Mahle /Bosch, FEV and AVL with swept volumes of
less than 1 liter for midsized sedans and specific output levels of over 100kW/liter).
Increased development will take place in the area of turbo/supercharging with new boosting concepts being
under development and the amount of turbocharger manufactures increasing. In addition the further
development of direct injection systems is taking place according to some German OEMs and TR1s stratified
mode is unlikely to become the main combustion strategy: the gain in pumping losses reduction (especially in
downsized engines) is not big enough and does not compensate for the increase in system costs due to the
required NOx treatment system and complex control for drivability and system aging. Injection pressure
increases new air and spray guided systems will be introduced and better control of swirl and tumble air
movement is under constant development.
If we look at diesel engines the main challenge lies in reducing NOx and PM and keeping system costs under
control. Denso and others are showing that closed loop combustion may be the way forward: a better control
of the combustion process itself will lead to a strong reduction of emissions and at the same time help to keep
system cost under control. Interesting to see that also in The Netherlands development in this area takes
place within the HTAS program.
Hybrids and EV technology
Both the hybrid and EV track will benefit greatly from a decrease in battery cost and the development of
battery systems that can increase the range of the vehicle. Graph 9 provides an overview of expected battery
performance as seen by a battery supplier.
Graph 9: Lithium Ion expected battery performance
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In addition one of the challenges facing EVs is unreliable prediction of market size, this slows down the
development of new systems especially in Germany due to uncertainty of the business case.
A German OEM predicted a sales market share of between 5 and 15% of EVs (BEV and PHEV) in 2020, this is a
rough indication and with a far bigger uncertainty than ever before. However premium manufactures can use
their EVs to reduce fleet average and at the same time keep on selling the profitable premium cars the
produce. Therefore most German OEMs are developing some sort of EV. An example is the MegaCity vehicle
by BMW and Audis E-tron.
It also seems that the major OEMs and TRs are taking development into their own hands: the production of
batteries (Daimlers stake in Tesla) and the development of E-powertrains (BMWs new development
department) showcases that OEMs are taking EVs seriously and building up competence so it will become a
part of their core knowledge. Interesting company in this respect is Renault-Nissan, EVs are part of their
strategy and they will produce a full line up of EVs before 2012. The combined knowledge of Nissan, Renault
and their supplier base, especially their Japanese supplier base, allows them to move quickly.
3.3 Transmission development
Transmission development is focusing on a few main subjects. Graph 10 shows the proposed steps to be taken
and the anticipated technology path.
Graph 10: Transmission improvement potential
Further electrification and consequently better control combined with an increase ratio coverage/number of
gears are the main topics. CO2 reduction potential from the transmission of up to 9% in the future is
mentioned by both transmission suppliers and OEMs. Expected global market share for automatic
transmissions is displayed in graph 11. It shows the before mentioned trends translated into market share.
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Graph 11: Market share automatic transmission
3.4 Truck and Bus
The truck and bus industry is facing similar challenges as the passenger car industry however due to usage the
diesel engine is likely to remain the prime mover. Hybridization and electrification is taking place for
distribution (in city usage) purposes with both DAF and Mercedes introducing hybrid vehicles.
If we look at the diesel engine we can see that the power race has calmed down a bit and according to several
OEMs it is unlikely that the requested power output from the market will continue to grow. On the other
hand some manufactures are producing premium larger engines that are capable of producing over 500kW. In
the 12 liter range the 6-cylinder engine is mainstream and multiple turbo charging to increase power density
and to compensate for the full load EGR power losses are under development. A big difference with passenger
cars is however that even under full load condition stringent emission levels need to be attained. In addition
like passenger cars closed loop combustion processes are under development with the main concern being
controllability and durability of the pressure sensors with a field demand of 1 million kilometers this is not
easy to achieve.
Drive train efficiency in combination with an increase in driver comfort causes an increase of automated
gearbox usage in the truck industry. It is anticipated that this rate will increase further along with the further
development and introduction of hybrid and EV solutions.
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4. IMPACT ON REGION
Powertrain development is undergoing changes for the region. This means that we need to cope with a wider
spread of themes: further electrification of the
powertrain is without a doubt taking place.Furthermore it shows that the region needs to
make sure that we bundle our knowledge, make
sure we have a feed of well educated young
engineers with skills in both the mechanical and
electronics field and provide the infrastructure to
deal with the challenges in front of us. With
increased regional cooperation and a strong
backing of the industry the EMR region is and will
remain one of the key areas for powertrain development.
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REFERENCES
19th Aachener Colloquium 4 to 6 October 2010 Aachen Germany
6
th
CVT World Congress 17 to 19 November 2010 Maastricht the Netherlands eCarTec conference 19 to 20 October 2010 Munchen Germany Workshop Powertrain Control ATC, DAF Trucks 2010 7th International Automotive Congress.NL 2010 Interviews during ATC Innovation Visit, South-Germany and Austria 2009 8th International CTI Symposium 2009
IMAGES
DAF Trucks NV Daimler AG Bosch Transmission Technology Renault S.A Jatco co Siemens AG Fiat Powertrain Technologies
This study has been made possible by the AC EMR 2012 project. This project is a cooperation of: ATC, the
Regional Development Agency in the province of North-Brabant, Interreg and foreign partners of the regions:
Flanders, Aachen and Wallonia. In this project the aim is to enforce the position, opportunities and
attractiveness of the EMR region in the field of automotive industry.
Authors
Martin van Besouw Senior Consultant
Stijn Huijbers Consultant