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8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
1/20
www.ricardo.com
Ricardo lc 2009RD.08_057505.02Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
Future Powertrains for China
Running out of Fuel?
Presentation Document
13th
September 2009
Christ ian Koehler
Managing Director Asia
Ricardo Strategic Consulting
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
2/20
Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
The invisible hand of the government firmly directs the
development of the Chinese automotive market
China Future Powertrain
Source: Public domain, Ricardo analysis
Cut Vehicle Purchase Tax
Lower the purchase tax on
cars with engines under1.6 litre from 10% to 5%
from Jan 20 to Dec 31
2009
Subsidy for Rural Vehicle Purchase
Allocate 5 billion Yuan to
subsidize rural vehicle purchasesfrom March 1 to Dec 30 2009
Farmers who replace their three-
wheeled vehicles and outdated
trucks with smaller ones that
have an engine capacity of lessthan 1.3 litre, are eligible for
subsidies
Subsidy for Scrapping Old Vehicles
Allocate 1 billion Yuan to provide
subsidies for scrapping old vehicles
A further 4 billion Yuan is allocated
from June 1 2009 to May 31 2010
Owners of trucks and buses
exceeding a given age, or cars
which do not meet certainenvironmental standards, are
eligible for subsidies
Chinas Auto Industry Revival Plan Five Key Elements
Promote Consol idation
Primary consolidation
between and among
OEMs and suppliers
Encourage OEMs to
co-develop andproduce new cars and
key components
New tech development Funded with 10 billion
Yuan over three years
to support auto
technology innovation
and new energy autodevelopment
New Energy Vehicles Subsidized for
marketing the use of
electric, hybrid and
fuel-cell vehicles in
large and medium-
sized cities
Others Encourage development
of local brands
Boost CBU/components
exports
Develop automotiveservice and the finance
sector
Foster the market
1
2 3 4 5
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
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Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
China is currently in Euro III but is determined to catch up towards
tighter emission legislations, led by major cities
China Vehicle Emission Legislation (Homologation) *
Source: Literature research
Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V ** TBD
Beijing 2.1 CO, 0.66HC 1.5 CO, 0.46HC1.5 CO, 0.46HC, 2.0 NOX,
0.02 PM, 0.5 SmokeShanghai 5.0 NOX,, 0.10/0.13*** PM 3.5 NOX,, 0.02 PM
Nationwide 0.8 Smoke 0.5 Smoke
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-20
Note: * For European Steady Cycle and European Load Response tests
** Beijing and Shanghai implementation of Stage V is estimated
*** Specific for engine with per cylinder displacement < 0.75L and rotation speed >3000r/min at rated power
CO, HC, NOX, PM Unit: g/(Kwh)
Smoke Unit: m-1
China Future Powertrain
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
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Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
In 2009, government incentive plans have been introduced to foster
hybrid and electric vehicle penetration
Policy on New Energy Vehicle - Incentive for PV and LCV in Public Service (RMB)
Vehicle Type Fuel Saving RateMax Electr ic Power Rate*
BSG 10%~20% 20%~30% 30%~100%
Hybrid
5%~10%4K
- - -
10%~20% 28K 32K -
20%~30% - 32K 36K 42K
30%~40% - - 42K 45K
>40% - - - 50K
EV 100% - - - 60K
Fuel Cell 100% - - - 250K
Note: * Equals to Electric motor power/ Total power of vehicle
Vehicle Type Fuel Saving Rate Use Lead-acid Battery
Use Ni-mh Battery, Lithium Ion Battery and Super
Capacitor (Max Electric Power Rate)
20%~50% >50%
Hybrid
10%~20% 50K 200K -
20%~30% 70K 250K 300K
30%~40% 80K 300K 360K
>40% - 350K 420K
EV 100% - - 500KFuel Cell 100% - - 600K
Policy on New Energy Vehicle - Incentive for City Bus > 10m (RMB)
Source: MOF
China Future Powertrain
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
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Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.00.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6
2.5 3.1 3.1 3.2
3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2
4.3 4.40.9
0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
0.40.5 0.5 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.6
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
0.7
1.01.2 1.4 1.7
1.9 2.0
2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6
2.7 2.8 2.7
1.4
2.1 2.2 2.2
2.32.5
2.6 2.7 2.9
3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3
1.3
1.4 1.6
1.8 1.9
2.02.2
2.3 2.4 2.5
2.6 2.7 2.9
0.2
0.2 0.2
0.30.3
0.30.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3 0.3
0.5
0.5 0.5
0.60.6
0.6
0.6 0.6
0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.20.20.2
0.20.2
0.10.1
0.1
0.10.1
0.10.1
0.1
9.4
11.4 11.9
12.8 13.5
14.615.5
16.1 16.9
17.5 18.0
18.5 19.0
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SalesVolume(Mu
nits)
5.0%
6.8%
8.2%
4.3%
4.6%
8.2%
7.3%
6.0%
2.2%
2.4%
7.8%
As a result of the government push, Chinas vehicle market has
recovered and is projected to increase to 19.0M units by 2020
Source: Ricardo analysis
A
B
C
D
E+F
SUV/ MVP/
PUP
MIC Van
M/HVAN
MediumTruck
HeavyTruck
Bus
CAGR 6.0%
SegmentCAGR
China Vehicle Sales Forecast 2008-2020
China Future Powertrain
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
6/20 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
Total
LCV
Chinas vehicle population is expected to grow at 8.6% till 2020, and
will amount to ~140M vehicles
Source: China Automotive Yearbook, Ricardo analysis
Note: PV includes sedan, SUV, MPV, Pickup and crossover
LCV includes micro van, medium van and heavy van
HCV includes medium and heavy trucks, medium and large buses
Comments
Total PARC
Due to increasing attrition ratesbased on income growth andtightening emission regulations,total PARC is expected to grow at8.6% CAGR to 139M units till2020, mainly driven by PV
PV
Forecasted to be the largest andfastest growing segment withCAGR 10.5%, driven by growingdemand for family cars
LCV
Expected to grow at 7.2% CAGR,
driven by demand in rural areas
HCV
Expected to grow at 3.7% CAGR,driven by a modest sales growthtowards more modern and
efficient trucks from current old-technology and low-payloadtrucks
10.5%
7.2%
3.7%
8.6%
PV
HCV
CAGR
China Future Powertrain
31 36 41 46
52 58 63
68 73 78 8220
2224
2628
3032
34 3638
40
88
99
10 10
1010
1111
11
85
26
42
18
11
7
59
66
74
81
89
98
105
113
120
127133 139
51
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
VechileParc(Mu
nits)
China Vehicle PARC Development 2008-2020
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
7/20 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
Ricardo has developed three scenarios for future powertrain
technologies to understand effects on fuel consumption
Business as usual
Transportation fuel efficiency
remain the same as year 2008all through 2020
Higher Fuel Efficiency
Smaller Engines and mild
hybridization reduce gasolineconsumption of PV and micro
van by 25% in 2020
Light and small trucks save
5% (diesel) fuel through
improved powertrain design Turbocompounding reduces
diesel consumption of medium
and heavy duty buses and
trucks by 20%
Electrification/ Light Weight
China Transport Fuel Consumption Scenarios
China Future Powertrain
Source: Ricardo analysis
Significant weight reduction
(300kg per vehicle) willdecrease PV fuel consumption
by further 10%
Additionally, hybridization and
electrification in large numbers
is assumed: 10%* micro hybrid cars
save 5% fuel
2% mild hybrid cars save
12% fuel
1% full hybrid cars save
30% fuel
8% full hybrid buses save
25% fuel
1% plug-in hybrid cars
save 80% fuel
1% electric cars and 8%electric buses with no fuel
consumptionNote: * Percentage of total car PARC or bus PARC
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
8/20 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
In a business as usual scenario, transport fuel consumption will
grow without increases in vehicle fuel economy
Comments
Gasoline consumption will increase to
141M tons in 2020, driven by fast growth
of family PV
PVs gasoline consumption is
expected to grow at 10.4% CAGR
based on fast parc expansion
CVs gasoline consumption is driven
by micro and light vans; other
segments are moving towardsdieselization
Diesel fuel consumption will grow to
113M tons in 2020, dominated by CV
segment
CV consumes about ~98% of totaldiesel fuel, which is expected to
remain stable till 2020
Complete HCV parc is dieselizied
currently, followed by LCV parc
Diesel penetration in PV is projected
to increase, but will remain as a smallportion at ~2.5% by 2020
Source: Ricardo analysis
Forecast Diesel Consumption for Vehicle 2008-2020
Forecast Gasoline Consumption for Vehicle 2008-2020
8.4%
PV
CV
Total
2.1%
10.4%
PV15.1%
CV6.2%
6.0%Total
CAGR
CAGR
China Future Powertrain
36 43 50 58
65 73 81 88
95 102 108 114 118
18 18
18 18
18 18
19 19 18
19 20 22
23
54 61
68 75 83
91 99
107 114
121 129
135 141
0
30
60
90
120
150
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
GasolineConsumption(Mt
ons)
54 60 64 71
76 82 87 91
96 100 104 107 110
1 1
1 1
1 1
2 2
2 2 3 3 3
55 61 65 71
77 83 89 93
98 103107110113
0
30
60
90
120
150
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
DieselConsumption(Mt
ons)
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
9/20 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
In the Electrification/ Light Weight
scenario, gasoline consumption will be
reduced to 95M tons in 2020
33% lower compared to Business as
usual and 11% lower compared to
Higher Efficiency scenario
Benefit from Electrification is minor
based on
Still small vehicle parc penetration
The largest share of hybrid is Micro
hybrid, which has limited fuel
saving potential
In the Electrification/ Light Weight ,
diesel fuel consumption will be reduced to93M tons in 2020
17% lower compared to Business as
usual scenario
Benefit from Electrification is
extremely limited based on very smallsales volume and parc
Higher Fuel Efficient Powertrains will provide major effects while
Electrif ication/ Light Weight has only minor benefits
Source: Ricardo analysis
Forecast Diesel Consumption for Vehicle 2008-2020
Electrification/
Light Weight4.9%
Higher
Efficiency
6.0%
8.4%Business
as usual
HigherEfficiency
4.8%
6.2%Business
as usual
4.8%
CAGR
CAGR
China Future Powertrain
54 61
68 75 83
91 99
107 114
121 129 135 141
53 59 64 69
7483 86
89 92 94 95 95
53 60
71 76
1061039995
82
92
107
8765
79
0
30
60
90
120
150
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020G
asolineConsumptio
n(Mt
ons)
53 58 66 69
74 81 85
88 90 92
55 61 65
71 77 83 89 93 98
103 107 110 113
53 58 61 66
6978 81
85 87 90 92 93
94
78
61 74
0
30
60
90
120
150
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
DieselConsumption(Mt
ons)
CommentsForecast Gasoline Consumption for Vehicle 2008-2020
Electrification/
Light Weight
C
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
10/20 1 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
95 93
1544
29
21
0
40
80
120
160
200
Gasoline Diesel
FuelDemand(Mto
ns)
76
58
1935
0
40
80
120
160
200
Gasoline Diesel
FuelDemand(Mto
ns)
An Electrification/ Light weight scenario will curb Chinas total
gasoline/ diesel demand to 110M and 187M tons respectively in 2020
Vehicle Fuel Demand 2020 Total Fuel Demand 2020
Gasoline
PV is projected to consume 76M tons of
gasoline based on a huge family car parc CV is forecasted to consume 19M tons of
gasoline, driven by LCV
Diesel
HDD will drive diesel consumption to reach
58M tons, align with economy growth LDD diesel consumption, attributing to light
truck, is expected to reach 35M tons
Source: DRC report, literature research, Ricardo analysis
PV
CV
Gasoline
Vehicle will continue to dominate and reach
~85% of total gasoline consumption in 2020 Driven by vehicle, total gasoline consumption
will hit 110M tons in 2020
Diesel
Vehicle will continue to expand its share in
diesel consumption to ~50% in 2020 Total consumption will increase to 187M tons
accordingly
China Future Powertrain
LDD
HDD
95 93
110
Vehicle
Other
Vehicle
Agr iculture
CE, Industry& Railway
Other
187
Chi F t P t i
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
11/20 1 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
25
6085 110
61
1
Ref ining
Output
Demand Ref ining
Output
Demand
Need Net
Import
184
132
3
187
138
6
Ref ining
Output
Demand Ref ining
Output
Demand
Net import of gasoline is expected to grow rapidly by ~31% to cope
with increasing demand
China Domestic Gasoline Supply 2008/2020*
From 2008 to 2020, gasoline demand will growfrom 61M to 110M tons at CAGR 5.0%
Refining output is projected to grow slower than
demand at CAGR 3.0%
This results in a rapid growth of net import of
gasoline at CAGR 31%, driving importdependence to 23% in 2020
Source: DRC report, China Energy Blue Book 2008, NBSC, literature research, Ricardo analysis
2008 2020
Need Net
Import
In M tons
China Future Powertrain
China Domestic Diesel Supply 2008/2020*
2008 2020
Need Net
Import
In M tons
Need Net
Import
From 2008 to 2020, diesel demand will grow from138M to 187M tons at CAGR 2.5%
Refining output is projected to grow faster than
demand at CAGR 2.8%
This results in a decrease of net import in 2020,
based on a nearly sufficient domestic refining output
Note: *Assume 2020 refining operating rate is at maximum 96%
China Future Powertrain
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
12/20 1 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3
2.7 3.2
3.8 4.7
5.1 5.5
6.0 6.5
3.7%4.3%5.1% 5.4%5.7%
6.1% 6.5%
3.0%2.9%2.5% 2.7%2.8% 3.3%
0
2
4
6
8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
EthanolVolume
(Mt
ons)
Ethanol (E100) Consumption Ethanol of Total Gasoline Consumption %
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5
0.6 0.8
1.01.1
1.31.5
1.7
0.8% 1.6%1.4%1.2%1.0%1.1%0.7%0.6%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5% 0.5%0
1
2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
BiodieselVolu
me(Mt
ons)
Biodiesel (B100) Consumption Biodiesel of Total Diesel Consumption %
Biodiesel and ethanol wil l provide litt le relief and are expected to
outweigh 1.6% of diesel and 6.5% of gasoline demand in 2020
Comments
Bio-diesel is expected to increase from
0.3M tons in 2008 to 1.7M tons
(equivalent to 35M tons of BD5) in 2020
Development of bio-diesel is deeplyimpacted by low fuel price in 2009
B5 standard issued in 2009 is
somehow a positive message for
biodiesels long term development
Ethanol though shows little growth sinceit is still in the initial stage of non-grain
based feedstock and deeply impacted by
low fuel prices
Target is to replace ~6.5% of gasoline
consumption in 2020
According to government plans,
ethanol production for ethanol blends
gasoline targets at 10M tons in 2020
At Ricardo, we hold a conservative
view on ethanol development in
China and project 6.5M tons in 2020
Source: Ricardo analysis
Forecast Biodiesel Consumption 2008-2020*
Forecast Ethanol Consumption 2008-2020*
China Future Powertrain
CAGR 15%
Note: *Biodiesel and ethanol of total fuel consumption percentage are based on Electrification/ Light Weight scenario fuel consumption
CAGR 12%
China Future Powertrain
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
13/201 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
93 90
94 94
Electrification/
Light Weight
Domestic
Refinery Self-
sufficient
DieselDemand(M
tons)
Other
Vehicle
To avoid fuel imports in 2020, ~60% of all sold PVs would need to be
PHEVs or EVs
Diesel and Gasol ine Demand 2020
9570
1515
Electrification/
Light Weight
Domestic
Refinery Self-sufficient
Gass
olineDemand(M
tons)
Other
Vehicle
110
85
2020 China Vehicle Sales and PARC by Type*
ICE
6%EV
27%
PHEV32%
Full
4%
Mild8%
Micro
22%
187 184
PV: 11.9M units
Source: Ricardo analysis
China Future Powertrain
New Vehicle Sales
Vehicle PARC
ICE
51%
EV4% PHEV
8%Full
5%
Mild9%
Micro
22%
ICE
86%
EV
7%
Full
7%
Full
3%
Mild
5%13%
Micro
71%
ICE
2%EV
5%PHEV
4%
Full
93%ICE
4%
EV
LCV: 6.0M units HCV: 1.1M units
PV: 85.3M units LCV: 41.8M units HCV: 11.4M units
Micro
14%
2%Full5%
Mild
EV
15% PHEV
18%
46%ICE
China Future Powertrain
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
14/201 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
China is at the crossroads further vehicle growth and consumer
choices require government guidance
China Future Powertrain
Note: * includes passenger vehicles and MIC
Source: Ricardo analysis
Continued Vehicle Growth in China Vehicle Usage
At the projected level of growth, vehicle
ownership in China will grow to 75vehicles* per 1,000 capita in 2020
This will still be substantially below
developed countries
Further growth of private vehicleownership seems inevitable
Security of fuel supply will become a
major concern as a consequence
The impact on road and city
infrastructure, cost and security ofenergy supply, and environment will be
tremendous
Drastic countermeasures will be
required to mitigate the environmentaldamage and ensure fuel supply
Traffic Management
Public Transport
Usage Restrictions
Vehicle Efficiency
Powertrain Technology
Vehicle Technology
Vehicle Downsizing
Alternative Fuels
All solutions
have a role to
play, but better
powertrainefficiency is the
most promising
option for short
to medium
gains
China Future Powertrain
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
15/201 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
Next 20+ years will see an evolution of conventional powertrains,
supplemented by diverse technologies for sector/regional variations
Source: Ricardo roadmaps and technology planning
China Future Powertrain
Improving efficiency of conventional transmission
GTL etc added to blends
Bi-fuel Vehicles
Next Gen FC/H2 demo bus & car
1st Generation Improved Gasoline
2nd
Generation Improved/Downsized Gasoline
Car/LDV Dieselisation (niche applications)
New generation transmissions DCT, AT
Niche Alternative Fuels LPG, NG
Bio fuel Blends (Increasing %, 2nd gen)
Exhaust Energy recovery HD Truck
Mainstream Car Micro / Mild Hybrids
Mainstream Car Full Hybrids
SUV Full Hybrids
Car Plug in Hybrids
City Bus Series Full Hybrids
Niche EV City Car
2010 2015 2020
Image Car Hybrid
Technological solutionsfollow Europe due to
similar emission standards Cost
Importance ofmaximising advantagefrom advanced ICEtechnologies
Cost effective fuelconsumption reducingtechnologies will prevail
Sector specific solutions
HEV for urban use cars
and buses Efficient ICEs for longer
missions / higher loadfactors
China Powertrain Roadmap Highlights Key Messages
Image Car Hybrid
China Future Powertrain
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
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For car makers, a multi-solution portfolio of ICEs, HEVs, PHEVs &
EVs, technology planning, delivery and cost performance will be key
Note: ICE= Internal Combustion Engine; HEV = Hybrid-Electrical Vehicle; PHEV = Plug-in HEV; EV = Electrical Vehicle; CTL = Coal to liquid; GTL = Gas to liquid; BTL = Biomass to liquid;CNG = Compressed Natural Gas; LPG = Liquefied Petroleum Gases; LNG = Liquefied Natural Gas; FAME = Fatty Acid Methyl Ester; DME = Di-Methyl Ester; E10 = Ethanol 10% Fuel
Source: CATARC, Ricardo
NationwideImplementation
Gasoline, Diesel, HEV,
CTL, GTL, BTL
Gasoline, Diesel, HEV Gasoline, Diesel, HEV,
E10, CTL, GTL
4
RegionalImplementation
3 CNG, LNG, PHEV,
Electric, Hydrogen
CNG, LPG, E10, LNG CNG, LNG, LPG,
FAME, BTL
Pilot Projects
2 M10, FAME, CTL, DME PHEV, Electr ic,
Hydrogen
Technology Ready
1 Hydrogen, BTL
SHORT TERM: ~2010MEDIUM TERM:
~2020
LONG TERM: ~2040
China Future Powertrain
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
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Car makers need to take key actions in engineering, supply and
production to prepare for new powertrain technologies
Upstream
R&DSupply Production
Source: Ricardo Analysis
1. Critically evaluate
competencies in advanced
and vehicle engineering upon
short, medium and long-term
technology paths
2. Execute vertical integration in
selected areas of promising
core technology
3. Develop alliances or
partnerships to access, lock
in & preserve key IP in the
supply chain on important but
non core technologies
4. Transform supply chain for
short, medium and long term
technology scenarios
5. Continue to develop
best in class ICE systems to
obtain highest technology
from lowest cost base
6. Develop new technology filtersand amend technology
development, deployment and
cost control processes to be
responsive to the new cadence
7. Redefine own core
competencies in Engineering
incl. alliances / partnerships
and suppliers
8.Align powertrain and vehicle
architectures to accept
technology evolution at lowestcapital cost/complexity
9. Evaluate economies of
scale and commonality
by technology sharing
across vehicle lines
(PC, CV, etc.)
10.Evaluate next round
of modularization
strategy in the context
of technology road
maps
11.Reinforce abilities as
integrator of future
powertrain
technologies and
systems
Value Chain Key Actions for OEMs
Downstream
China Future Powertrain
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
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New powertrain technologies wil l trigger further changes in
downstream activit ies
Upstream Downstream
Sales After Sales
Source: Ricardo Analysis
12. Develop best in class niche
vehicles to build green image
(EV/PHEV)
13. Align Marketing with selected near-
term technology to re-define/re-enforce Brand DNA and promote
green image
14. Prepare Dealerships and
Distribution network for new
technology and products based
upon core ICE and derivatives
15. Prepare Service Network for future
challenges
16. Capitalise on repair & maintenance
revenues from new technology
17. Evaluate new revenue streams like in-use service (e.g.: battery charging /
exchange stations)
18. Evaluate new revenue models in
finance & lease, rental, mobility
services, etc.
19. Gain stake in accessory sales and
customization
Value Chain Key Actions for OEMs
Going forward Summary
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
19/20
1 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
The powertrain future will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary,
with decisions impacting technology, cost, skills & processes
The future of the automotive powertrain is government- rather thancustomer- or even technology-driven
This is especially true for China where vehicle growth and consumer choiceswill continue to be guided by the government
Evolutionary improvements to today's technologies will achieve significantimpact at low risk, but at increased cost
There will be no single revolutionary winning technology: the P/T future
will be an evolving mixture of 2nd
gen. ICEs, HEVs, EVs, with ICE still playingthe predominant role short- to medium-term
"Revolutionary" technologies all carry too many risks or issues to impact
near- to mid-term mass markets
Source: Ricardo Strategic Consulting
8/13/2019 Future Powertrains for China
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2 Ricardo lc 2009Confidential Christian.Koehler Ricardo.com
Ricardo Shanghai Co. Ltd.
Room 501 Gems Tower, Caohejing Hi-Tech Park
487 Tian Lin Road, Minhang District
Shanghai 200233, P.R. China
Christian KoehlerManaging Director AsiaRicardo Strategic Consulting
Telephone: +86 21 5208 0170
Facsimile: +86 21 5208 2811Mobile: +86 136 2179 8724
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